First, let start by saying the G5 has never had it better in most ways with having an auto-bid to a Major Bowl and more money for being FBS with the CFP. That is a big step forward in my opinion that never was possible 20 years ago.

Second, we still haven't seen how high the G5 ceiling is being a top 4 team. UCF, though having an excellent ceiling, has a very weak SOS. Houston didn't make it to find out how high it could have been ranked after beating Oklahoma and Louisville.
Until a 13-0 G5 school that beats 1 or 2 P5 schools that are ranked by the CFP we won't know how the committee will rank a G5 school with a much better SOS than UCF.
Until then we need to wait and see and we could be right that a G5 despite having beaten 3 ranked P5 schools won't ever be in the top 4.

Third,
There will be talk as we get closer to the end of the current CFP contract regarding expansion of the playoffs. So far, the P5 commissioners are falling in line despite some controversies this year and other years that the playoffs don't need to expand.
If the playoffs expand without a G5 spot or the playoffs stay at 4 teams, then the G5 needs to look at other options.

My hunch is that they won't expand because of the 'student-athlete' issue and that the majority of schools still love to play in a Major Bowl game (especially the Rose Bowl with the Big 10/Pac 12 connection).
It can be done like at the FCS level with the team playing in the National Championship would have play 15 or 16 games (depending on seeding), but that means a regular game at the FBS level needs to be taken away and that won't happen.

However, the fact that there may have been some casual talk about a G5 playoff means that there is something brewing behind the back channels and in some ways, we are heading back to the future where it is going to be more like 1996 where a G5 school never had a chance to sniff at a big bowl.
Or...
that the upcoming bowl cycle renewal will be having the P5 conferences only playing each other in the bowls and completely freeze out the G5.

(12-18-2017 03:16 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  First, let start by saying the G5 has never had it better in most ways with having an auto-bid to a Major Bowl and more money for being FBS with the CFP. That is a big step forward in my opinion that never was possible 20 years ago.

Second, we still haven't seen how high the G5 ceiling is being a top 4 team. UCF, though having an excellent ceiling, has a very weak SOS. Houston didn't make it to find out how high it could have been ranked after beating Oklahoma and Louisville.
Until a 13-0 G5 school that beats 1 or 2 P5 schools that are ranked by the CFP we won't know how the committee will rank a G5 school with a much better SOS than UCF.
Until then we need to wait and see and we could be right that a G5 despite having beaten 3 ranked P5 schools won't ever be in the top 4.

Third,
There will be talk as we get closer to the end of the current CFP contract regarding expansion of the playoffs. So far, the P5 commissioners are falling in line despite some controversies this year and other years that the playoffs don't need to expand.
If the playoffs expand without a G5 spot or the playoffs stay at 4 teams, then the G5 needs to look at other options.

My hunch is that they won't expand because of the 'student-athlete' issue and that the majority of schools still love to play in a Major Bowl game (especially the Rose Bowl with the Big 10/Pac 12 connection).
It can be done like at the FCS level with the team playing in the National Championship would have play 15 or 16 games (depending on seeding), but that means a regular game at the FBS level needs to be taken away and that won't happen.

However, the fact that there may have been some casual talk about a G5 playoff means that there is something brewing behind the back channels and in some ways, we are heading back to the future where it is going to be more like 1996 where a G5 school never had a chance to sniff at a big bowl.
Or...
that the upcoming bowl cycle renewal will be having the P5 conferences only playing each other in the bowls and completely freeze out the G5.

I find it hard to imagine that a G5 school would ever be able to schedule three ranked P5 teams in the same season. To crack the Top 4 with two P5 wins, I suspect a G5 would have to be unbeaten, and both their P5 wins be against Top 15 opponents. That's a tall order. Houston appeared to be on the way to accomplishing it, but then both they and Louisville crashed in November.

For now, if the best the G5 has to offer can beat the #11 ranked P5 team on a given day, they get to talk smack for at least a year. And, as long as they do so occasionally, they will probably get to keep their annual NY6 spot. That's a lot better than it used to be.

(12-18-2017 03:16 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  First, let start by saying the G5 has never had it better in most ways with having an auto-bid to a Major Bowl and more money for being FBS with the CFP. That is a big step forward in my opinion that never was possible 20 years ago.

Second, we still haven't seen how high the G5 ceiling is being a top 4 team. UCF, though having an excellent ceiling, has a very weak SOS. Houston didn't make it to find out how high it could have been ranked after beating Oklahoma and Louisville.
Until a 13-0 G5 school that beats 1 or 2 P5 schools that are ranked by the CFP we won't know how the committee will rank a G5 school with a much better SOS than UCF.
Until then we need to wait and see and we could be right that a G5 despite having beaten 3 ranked P5 schools won't ever be in the top 4.

Third,
There will be talk as we get closer to the end of the current CFP contract regarding expansion of the playoffs. So far, the P5 commissioners are falling in line despite some controversies this year and other years that the playoffs don't need to expand.
If the playoffs expand without a G5 spot or the playoffs stay at 4 teams, then the G5 needs to look at other options.

My hunch is that they won't expand because of the 'student-athlete' issue and that the majority of schools still love to play in a Major Bowl game (especially the Rose Bowl with the Big 10/Pac 12 connection).
It can be done like at the FCS level with the team playing in the National Championship would have play 15 or 16 games (depending on seeding), but that means a regular game at the FBS level needs to be taken away and that won't happen.

However, the fact that there may have been some casual talk about a G5 playoff means that there is something brewing behind the back channels and in some ways, we are heading back to the future where it is going to be more like 1996 where a G5 school never had a chance to sniff at a big bowl.
Or...
that the upcoming bowl cycle renewal will be having the P5 conferences only playing each other in the bowls and completely freeze out the G5.

I'm not sure that UCF would get into the CFP with Wisconsin's schedule. What great P5 wins did Wisconsin have before they played Ohio St.? 9-3 Northwestern? Unranked Iowa (7-5) and Michigan (8-4)?

The week before Selection Sunday, UCF's best win - #20 Memphis was ranked ahead of Wisconsin's best win - #21 Northwestern. Yet Wisconsin was ranked #4 and UCF was #14. Conference affiliation and CFP positioning had everything to do with those rankings.

I don't think the Selection Committee is ever going to bump a G5 team into one of the top-4 CFP rankings.

I would like to see 2 undefeated G5 schools get the access bowl like Boise State and TCU did that one year, and they did not disappoint us with how good the games were. I wonder if Boise did beat Washington State, Virginia and Fresno State twice? Would we be seeing a Boise State Vs. UCF match-up? Boise State is a known quality name than UCF.

(12-18-2017 09:00 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  I would like to see 2 undefeated G5 schools get the access bowl like Boise State and TCU did that one year, and they did not disappoint us with how good the games were. I wonder if Boise did beat Washington State, Virginia and Fresno State twice? Would we be seeing a Boise State Vs. UCF match-up? Boise State is a known quality name than UCF.

No, you would be seeing BSU vs Auburn and UCF in the AAC bowl line up.

(12-18-2017 03:49 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-18-2017 03:16 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  First, let start by saying the G5 has never had it better in most ways with having an auto-bid to a Major Bowl and more money for being FBS with the CFP. That is a big step forward in my opinion that never was possible 20 years ago.

Second, we still haven't seen how high the G5 ceiling is being a top 4 team. UCF, though having an excellent ceiling, has a very weak SOS. Houston didn't make it to find out how high it could have been ranked after beating Oklahoma and Louisville.
Until a 13-0 G5 school that beats 1 or 2 P5 schools that are ranked by the CFP we won't know how the committee will rank a G5 school with a much better SOS than UCF.
Until then we need to wait and see and we could be right that a G5 despite having beaten 3 ranked P5 schools won't ever be in the top 4.

Third,
There will be talk as we get closer to the end of the current CFP contract regarding expansion of the playoffs. So far, the P5 commissioners are falling in line despite some controversies this year and other years that the playoffs don't need to expand.
If the playoffs expand without a G5 spot or the playoffs stay at 4 teams, then the G5 needs to look at other options.

My hunch is that they won't expand because of the 'student-athlete' issue and that the majority of schools still love to play in a Major Bowl game (especially the Rose Bowl with the Big 10/Pac 12 connection).
It can be done like at the FCS level with the team playing in the National Championship would have play 15 or 16 games (depending on seeding), but that means a regular game at the FBS level needs to be taken away and that won't happen.

However, the fact that there may have been some casual talk about a G5 playoff means that there is something brewing behind the back channels and in some ways, we are heading back to the future where it is going to be more like 1996 where a G5 school never had a chance to sniff at a big bowl.
Or...
that the upcoming bowl cycle renewal will be having the P5 conferences only playing each other in the bowls and completely freeze out the G5.

I find it hard to imagine that a G5 school would ever be able to schedule three ranked P5 teams in the same season. To crack the Top 4 with two P5 wins, I suspect a G5 would have to be unbeaten, and both their P5 wins be against Top 15 opponents. That's a tall order. Houston appeared to be on the way to accomplishing it, but then both they and Louisville crashed in November.

For now, if the best the G5 has to offer can beat the #11 ranked P5 team on a given day, they get to talk smack for at least a year. And, as long as they do so occasionally, they will probably get to keep their annual NY6 spot. That's a lot better than it used to be.

I think ECUs schedule this year was good enough to make the playoff if we went undefeated. We played 5 Top 25 teams this year.

(12-18-2017 03:49 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-18-2017 03:16 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  First, let start by saying the G5 has never had it better in most ways with having an auto-bid to a Major Bowl and more money for being FBS with the CFP. That is a big step forward in my opinion that never was possible 20 years ago.

Second, we still haven't seen how high the G5 ceiling is being a top 4 team. UCF, though having an excellent ceiling, has a very weak SOS. Houston didn't make it to find out how high it could have been ranked after beating Oklahoma and Louisville.
Until a 13-0 G5 school that beats 1 or 2 P5 schools that are ranked by the CFP we won't know how the committee will rank a G5 school with a much better SOS than UCF.
Until then we need to wait and see and we could be right that a G5 despite having beaten 3 ranked P5 schools won't ever be in the top 4.

Third,
There will be talk as we get closer to the end of the current CFP contract regarding expansion of the playoffs. So far, the P5 commissioners are falling in line despite some controversies this year and other years that the playoffs don't need to expand.
If the playoffs expand without a G5 spot or the playoffs stay at 4 teams, then the G5 needs to look at other options.

My hunch is that they won't expand because of the 'student-athlete' issue and that the majority of schools still love to play in a Major Bowl game (especially the Rose Bowl with the Big 10/Pac 12 connection).
It can be done like at the FCS level with the team playing in the National Championship would have play 15 or 16 games (depending on seeding), but that means a regular game at the FBS level needs to be taken away and that won't happen.

However, the fact that there may have been some casual talk about a G5 playoff means that there is something brewing behind the back channels and in some ways, we are heading back to the future where it is going to be more like 1996 where a G5 school never had a chance to sniff at a big bowl.
Or...
that the upcoming bowl cycle renewal will be having the P5 conferences only playing each other in the bowls and completely freeze out the G5.

I find it hard to imagine that a G5 school would ever be able to schedule three ranked P5 teams in the same season. To crack the Top 4 with two P5 wins, I suspect a G5 would have to be unbeaten, and both their P5 wins be against Top 15 opponents. That's a tall order. Houston appeared to be on the way to accomplishing it, but then both they and Louisville crashed in November.

For now, if the best the G5 has to offer can beat the #11 ranked P5 team on a given day, they get to talk smack for at least a year. And, as long as they do so occasionally, they will probably get to keep their annual NY6 spot. That's a lot better than it used to be.

With many P5's going to 9 game schedules and requirements for at least one OOC P5--there is frankly almost zero chance of consistently getting 3 P5 games a year on a G5 schedule and virtually no chance that all 3 will be ranked when the G5 plays them. If we are honest, the current committee--completely appointed by the P5---has simply "made up" the requirement for a fully P5 schedule to be considered for the playoff. There is a reason the P5 refused to go to a "playoff" without the use of a selection committee that they appointed. The guaranteed G5 access bowl was the crumb given to the G5.

That said, every version of the CFP has resulted in better G5 access. Just have to keep winning the access bowl and keep making the G5 case in public. A G5 playoff would undermine the G5's slow progress in this area.

The CFP structure is not really holding back the schools outside the P5 conferences when it comes to football national championships. The fact is that, since the first AP champions were announced in 1936, only 3 times has a team outside that group been voted #1.

Two of those came during WWII, when Army won twice. The third was in 1984, when BYU won by virtue of going undefeated against a schedule featuring only one ranked team. They clinched the title by defeating a Michigan team that finished the season with a 6-6 record.

What makes anybody think that a G5 team could win an expanded playoff if they had the chance? Would winning a playoff that excluded P5 teams bring more prestige than beating a P5 team in an NY6 bowl?

Boise St. got more prestige by beating 7-5 Oregon in a pre-Christmas Las Vegas Bowl game than it would get by beating Toledo and the winner of Troy/FAU (rematch of the year?) in a G5 playoff.

(12-19-2017 12:44 PM)ken d Wrote:  The CFP structure is not really holding back the schools outside the P5 conferences when it comes to football national championships. The fact is that, since the first AP champions were announced in 1936, only 3 times has a team outside that group been voted #1.

Two of those came during WWII, when Army won twice. The third was in 1984, when BYU won by virtue of going undefeated against a schedule featuring only one ranked team. They clinched the title by defeating a Michigan team that finished the season with a 6-6 record.

What makes anybody think that a G5 team could win an expanded playoff if they had the chance? Would winning a playoff that excluded P5 teams bring more prestige than beating a P5 team in an NY6 bowl?

The fact that they have won the NYD bowl they play in far more often than not? Lets be honest, anything after 1990's was skewed by the effect of the BCS/CFP or its forerunners (like the Bowl Coalition). We honestly dont know. Everybody---and I mean EVERYBODY absolutely KNEW that UCF could not deal with Baylor (who some even felt like deserved a shot at the championship). Thats the problem--we really dont know how it would play out because there is so little interaction between the top of the P5 and the top of the G5 that we cant really tell how much (or how little) difference there really is. We have seen Navy play Notre Dame to within a TD this year. Last year Houston beat two P5 teams ranked in the top 5. My sense is there isnt really all that much difference between the top 10 of the P5 and the very best team in the G5.