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Laughable College Basketball Scores- Week 7
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Laughable College Basketball Scores- Week 7
(01-01-2018 03:21 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 02:22 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Their margin of error is thin.

No more than anyone else's. If Saint Mary's loses 4 conference games in the regular season and loses in the semifinal of the WCC tournament, they would have an overall record of 26-7.

It's the same margin of error that every team outside the P5 or Big East has. Look at the at-large teams in last season's tournament. Here's the entire list of teams not in a P5 conference or the Big East that were an at-large selection in the NCAA tournament and had more than 7 losses before the NCAAs:

VCU (26-8)

That's it. That's the list.

going into their conference tournament, if they are 25-6, their projected RPI is 50.6. That's pretty much NIT.
01-01-2018 03:27 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Laughable College Basketball Scores- Week 7
(01-01-2018 03:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 03:21 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 02:22 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Their margin of error is thin.

No more than anyone else's. If Saint Mary's loses 4 conference games in the regular season and loses in the semifinal of the WCC tournament, they would have an overall record of 26-7.

It's the same margin of error that every team outside the P5 or Big East has. Look at the at-large teams in last season's tournament. Here's the entire list of teams not in a P5 conference or the Big East that were an at-large selection in the NCAA tournament and had more than 7 losses before the NCAAs:

VCU (26-8)

That's it. That's the list.

going into their conference tournament, if they are 25-6, their projected RPI is 50.6. That's pretty much NIT.

The team with actual RPI rank of 53 last season, Kansas State, received one of the last at-large bids. Illinois State was out with an RPI of 39. Can't rely solely on RPI for those in-or-out calls.

If 26-7 isn't good enough for SMC it's not going to be good enough for any other non-power team, either. The fact that VCU was the only non-power team in 2017 with >7 losses in the tournament shows how difficult it is to make it anyway. The committee's track record also shows that, at least for non-power conference teams, a pretty RPI isn't going to save a team if the committee thinks they have "too many" losses relative to their strength of schedule (e.g. 2017 Illinois State).
01-01-2018 03:52 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Laughable College Basketball Scores- Week 7
(01-01-2018 03:52 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 03:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 03:21 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 02:22 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Their margin of error is thin.

No more than anyone else's. If Saint Mary's loses 4 conference games in the regular season and loses in the semifinal of the WCC tournament, they would have an overall record of 26-7.

It's the same margin of error that every team outside the P5 or Big East has. Look at the at-large teams in last season's tournament. Here's the entire list of teams not in a P5 conference or the Big East that were an at-large selection in the NCAA tournament and had more than 7 losses before the NCAAs:

VCU (26-8)

That's it. That's the list.

going into their conference tournament, if they are 25-6, their projected RPI is 50.6. That's pretty much NIT.

The team with actual RPI rank of 53 last season, Kansas State, received one of the last at-large bids. Illinois State was out with an RPI of 39. Can't rely solely on RPI for those in-or-out calls.

If 26-7 isn't good enough for SMC it's not going to be good enough for any other non-power team, either. The fact that VCU was the only non-power team in 2017 with >7 losses in the tournament shows how difficult it is to make it anyway. The committee's track record also shows that, at least for non-power conference teams, a pretty RPI isn't going to save a team if the committee thinks they have "too many" losses relative to their strength of schedule (e.g. 2017 Illinois State).

right.... but just looking at their RPI forecast, their schedule has had 1 of the new tier 1 games- @ BYU. They have 2 tier 1 games left- both with Gonzaga. If they lose both of those- going 1-2 vs tier 1, and then vs tier 2- only 2 of those- home vs BYU and away vs San Diego. If they get 6 losses overall, it's an extremely thin profile.

St Mary's projected SOS is only 156. Compare this to Houston, who is projected at 22-8. RPI of 38.2. projected SOS is 84. Houston would get in easily while St Mary's would be easily out of the tourney(probably not even one of the first 4 teams out).
01-01-2018 04:03 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Laughable College Basketball Scores- Week 7
(01-01-2018 04:03 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 03:52 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 03:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 03:21 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 02:22 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Their margin of error is thin.

No more than anyone else's. If Saint Mary's loses 4 conference games in the regular season and loses in the semifinal of the WCC tournament, they would have an overall record of 26-7.

It's the same margin of error that every team outside the P5 or Big East has. Look at the at-large teams in last season's tournament. Here's the entire list of teams not in a P5 conference or the Big East that were an at-large selection in the NCAA tournament and had more than 7 losses before the NCAAs:

VCU (26-8)

That's it. That's the list.

going into their conference tournament, if they are 25-6, their projected RPI is 50.6. That's pretty much NIT.

The team with actual RPI rank of 53 last season, Kansas State, received one of the last at-large bids. Illinois State was out with an RPI of 39. Can't rely solely on RPI for those in-or-out calls.

If 26-7 isn't good enough for SMC it's not going to be good enough for any other non-power team, either. The fact that VCU was the only non-power team in 2017 with >7 losses in the tournament shows how difficult it is to make it anyway. The committee's track record also shows that, at least for non-power conference teams, a pretty RPI isn't going to save a team if the committee thinks they have "too many" losses relative to their strength of schedule (e.g. 2017 Illinois State).

right.... but just looking at their RPI forecast, their schedule has had 1 of the new tier 1 games- @ BYU. They have 2 tier 1 games left- both with Gonzaga. If they lose both of those- going 1-2 vs tier 1, and then vs tier 2- only 2 of those- home vs BYU and away vs San Diego. If they get 6 losses overall, it's an extremely thin profile.

St Mary's projected SOS is only 156. Compare this to Houston, who is projected at 22-8. RPI of 38.2. projected SOS is 84. Houston would get in easily while St Mary's would be easily out of the tourney(probably not even one of the first 4 teams out).

Houston would get in easily? Like Illinois State did last year with the same RPI?

It might happen. A team from the AAC or WCC or MVC or A-10 might get into the NCAAs with 6 or more conference losses, but I wouldn't bet my own money on it.
01-01-2018 04:53 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Laughable College Basketball Scores- Week 7
(01-01-2018 03:52 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 03:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 03:21 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 02:22 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Their margin of error is thin.

No more than anyone else's. If Saint Mary's loses 4 conference games in the regular season and loses in the semifinal of the WCC tournament, they would have an overall record of 26-7.

It's the same margin of error that every team outside the P5 or Big East has. Look at the at-large teams in last season's tournament. Here's the entire list of teams not in a P5 conference or the Big East that were an at-large selection in the NCAA tournament and had more than 7 losses before the NCAAs:

VCU (26-8)

That's it. That's the list.

going into their conference tournament, if they are 25-6, their projected RPI is 50.6. That's pretty much NIT.

The team with actual RPI rank of 53 last season, Kansas State, received one of the last at-large bids. Illinois State was out with an RPI of 39. Can't rely solely on RPI for those in-or-out calls.

If 26-7 isn't good enough for SMC it's not going to be good enough for any other non-power team, either. The fact that VCU was the only non-power team in 2017 with >7 losses in the tournament shows how difficult it is to make it anyway. The committee's track record also shows that, at least for non-power conference teams, a pretty RPI isn't going to save a team if the committee thinks they have "too many" losses relative to their strength of schedule (e.g. 2017 Illinois State).

Illinois St’s SOS last year was 112. St Mary’s is currently 144.
01-01-2018 05:29 PM
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C2__ Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Laughable College Basketball Scores- Week 7
(01-01-2018 03:21 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 02:22 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Their margin of error is thin.

No more than anyone else's. If Saint Mary's loses 4 conference games in the regular season and loses in the semifinal of the WCC tournament, they would have an overall record of 26-7.

It's the same margin of error that every team outside the P5 or Big East has. Look at the at-large teams in last season's tournament. Here's the entire list of teams not in a P5 conference or the Big East that were an at-large selection in the NCAA tournament and had more than 7 losses before the NCAAs:

VCU (26-8)

That's it. That's the list.

They can't lose 4+1 WCC games. They need a split with Gonzaga or to lose no more than one regular season game, particularly to no one not named BYU.
01-01-2018 06:18 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Laughable College Basketball Scores- Week 7
I wouldn't compare Houston to Illinois State, as Houston's conference will provide more top-50 or top-100 fare than just one other team within the conference. Who itself wasn't strong metrically. The AAC has some pretty good clubs in it. Heck, Houston just beat Temple, one of those statistical darlings (but for how much longer), and Illinois State never had that going for them.

Just like those mid-majors with high RPI's getting snubbed, the K-State one will also remain to puzzle, with its lone qualities being a decent overall SOS (though propped up only by Big XII conference play) and 4-9 versus the RPI top-50, meaning at least four really good wins others, like Illinois State, Monmouth, and others on the bubble simply didn't have. Even with one or two bad losses (a better amount than Syracuse had with four sub-100 losses) and sub-.500 conference play, the good wins won out over a good record in an otherwise terrible conference that so many of these mid-major bubble teams have going for them. The committee was deaf to other accomplishments and considerations, and it could/will happen again.

I feel for Saint Mary's. The schedule didn't hold up. And in the WCC, it's Gonzaga and BYU you have to distinguish yourself against, and those aren't easy gets, though BYU's been easier to top the past few years. SMC is going to need one against Gonzaga. I think it's possible this year; Gonzaga isn't unbeatable or as dominant. It needs to share the top line of the WCC standings, though, and make it a SMC-Gonzaga WCC CCG. Count me as one who won't compare them to last year's Illinois State, though, if they get snubbed. SMC has been here before. Numerous times.

Now, back to the gassers...

Stetson 94
Florida National 88 (NAIA)

Florida National up as much as 18, 12 at the half. Stetson got their first lead with less than 4 and a half minutes in the game. They lost it again, then regained it and held on.
(This post was last modified: 01-02-2018 04:50 AM by The Cutter of Bish.)
01-02-2018 04:48 AM
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