I decided to have some fun with this.
I think a more plausible scenario is C-USA East splits away from C-USA West and starts a new conference. Most rivalries stay intact and it isn't reliant upon the Sun Belt to cooperate in realigning. You add James Madison & Delaware as full members and Towson as non-football, all from CAA, as well as Army for football. Sorry to UMass & Liberty. I don't see UMass leaving A10 (e.g. MAC), and thus subsequently not receiving an invite, as well as the recent denials for Liberty say they wouldn't either. Traveling partners would be Towson/Delaware, James Madison/Old Dominion, Charlotte/Marshall, Western Kentucky/Middle Tennessee, & Florida Atlantic/FIU. While Florida Atlantic/FIU are clearly outliers, I think it benefits the conference to have a footprint in the state for recruitment purposes.
Atlantic East Conference:
Code:
East West
Army (football only) Marshall
Delaware Western Kentucky
James Madison Middle Tennessee
Old Dominion Florida Atlantic
Charlotte FIU
Towson (non-football)
That leaves C-USA West to pick up newly independent New Mexico State as a full member, as well as Jacksonville State from Ohio Valley & Sam Houston State from Southland. Traveling partners would be Jacksonville State/UAB, Southern Miss/Louisiana Tech, North Texas/Sam Houston State, Rice/UTSA, & UTEP/New Mexico State. I think this conference remains as Conference USA as its headquarters are currently located in Irving, TX. This conference obviously has a strong foothold in the state of Texas for recruitment purposes.
Conference USA:
Code:
East West
Jacksonville State Sam Houston State (w/ stadium upgrade)
UAB Rice
Southern Miss UTSA
Louisiana Tech UTEP
North Texas New Mexico State
While the Sun Belt has become more regionalized with the loss of New Mexico State & Idaho, I do see them open to the possibility of adding two new members. The addition of Chattanooga and Eastern Kentucky would expand their footprint into those states, while still keeping the conference regionalized.
Sun Belt Conference additions:
Code:
East
Chattanooga
Eastern Kentucky
(Troy moves to West division.)