Stickboy46
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1/12/18 Bracketology
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01-12-2018 12:50 PM |
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Tiger1983
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RE: 1/12/18 Bracketology
It appears the range is 2 to 4 AAC teams making the NCAA Tourney.
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01-12-2018 12:53 PM |
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Stickboy46
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RE: 1/12/18 Bracketology
(01-12-2018 12:53 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote: It appears the range is 2 to 4 AAC teams making the NCAA Tourney.
Yup out of the Pool of
WSU
Cincy
Houston
SMU
UCF
Probably in that order
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01-12-2018 12:57 PM |
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rath v2.0
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RE: 1/12/18 Bracketology
SMU has left themselves almost zero room for error since they are about to lose their 4th straight conference game.
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01-12-2018 01:27 PM |
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Stickboy46
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RE: 1/12/18 Bracketology
(01-12-2018 01:27 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote: SMU has left themselves almost zero room for error since they are about to lose their 4th straight conference game.
Agreed. I think SMU can get away with losing all of their remaining games vs Cincy/WSU but they almost have to win every other game.
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01-12-2018 01:31 PM |
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ShockerFever
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RE: 1/12/18 Bracketology
SMU definitely has the better wins among the Tier 2 teams but their laying eggs in conference play is a killer.
I would think 5-6 conference losses is their floor for an at-large.
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01-12-2018 01:32 PM |
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MU88
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RE: 1/12/18 Bracketology
Looks like 2 and a bubble team for the AAC.
SMU is out barring wins against UC and WSU. Losses to UNI and WKU are killers. UNI is a doormat. WKU will be on the bubble without an automatic bid. Plus, if SMU beats Houston, it will knock Houston out too (again, barring wins against WSU and UC). Houston's loss to Drexel won't prevent them from getting a bid. They have played pretty well. 3-1 against the top 50, 3-2 against the top 100. However, they need to finish a solid 3rd in conference given their incredibly weak schedule. Getting swept by SMU will have them NIT bound. Nice win against Providence could be their ticket. Will the BE get 7, the Big 10 get 5 or will the AAC get 3? History says the BE and Big 10 will get the benefit of the doubt. Without a miracle, UCF is out. One top 50 win against a Temple team. Otherwise, 4-5 against the top 100, without any top 40 wins. Can't see them beating UC or WSU. Wins over the rest of the conference won't do much to impress the committee.
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01-12-2018 03:55 PM |
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KNIGHTTIME
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RE: 1/12/18 Bracketology
Ucf I think is a really long shot. We blew St John's by 1 point and Missouri by 3. Unless we can really pick up quality wins, I don't think we make it.
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01-12-2018 04:08 PM |
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sfink16
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RE: 1/12/18 Bracketology
Way too early for serious bracketolgy discussions. Not saying it's going to happen but any of the teams not named WSU or Cincy could get on a roll and sneak in. I wouldn't even guarantee that Cincy or WSU win the conference tourney, it happens.
I don't see it happening but Temple still has the #1 SOS and mid to upper 30's RPI, so you never know if they somehow can turn it around, as unlikely as it currently appears. Same thing with UCONN.
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01-12-2018 04:08 PM |
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stever20
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RE: 1/12/18 Bracketology
(01-12-2018 03:55 PM)MU88 Wrote: Looks like 2 and a bubble team for the AAC.
SMU is out barring wins against UC and WSU. Losses to UNI and WKU are killers. UNI is a doormat. WKU will be on the bubble without an automatic bid. Plus, if SMU beats Houston, it will knock Houston out too (again, barring wins against WSU and UC). Houston's loss to Drexel won't prevent them from getting a bid. They have played pretty well. 3-1 against the top 50, 3-2 against the top 100. However, they need to finish a solid 3rd in conference given their incredibly weak schedule. Getting swept by SMU will have them NIT bound. Nice win against Providence could be their ticket. Will the BE get 7, the Big 10 get 5 or will the AAC get 3? History says the BE and Big 10 will get the benefit of the doubt. Without a miracle, UCF is out. One top 50 win against a Temple team. Otherwise, 4-5 against the top 100, without any top 40 wins. Can't see them beating UC or WSU. Wins over the rest of the conference won't do much to impress the committee.
top 50 and top 100 are pretty much meaningless now..... Folks need to get that thru their heads.
UCF is 1-2 vs tier 1 games and 3-3 vs tier 2 games. With no bad lossses. Very possible the SMU win end of the year moves up to tier 1.(all would need is top 75 in RPI, which is pretty likely). They have still left 5 tier 1 games. If they can go 2-3 in those, I think they have a really good shot(especially if SMU moves up, making that a tier 1 win).
If Houston can get to 12-6, they're going to be in, even if that's only 4th in the conference. 12-6 would get them a RPI of 39.
Frankly- the AAC still has more than just those 5 teams. UConn and especially Temple with their SOS has a real shot. Temple finishes at 10-8, they're 18-12 with a RPI of 37 SOS of 16. That's a team that has a real shot, especially if Clemson and Auburn keep on doing really well.
The Big East really still is a big ? it's still very possible if not likely the league only has 5 teams who finish with .500 or better records. If that happens, they're only getting 5 teams in. It would be close to impossible for the BE to get 7 teams in.
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01-12-2018 04:25 PM |
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