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Tiger1983 · 02-15-2018 10:25 AM

(01-15-2018 09:04 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: Here we are as of this writing five games into an 18 game regular season AAC schedule:

1. Tied for 4th in standings
2. 10th place per KenPom (#162)
3. 8th place per RPI (now up to #95)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#133)
5. 9th place per Massey Index (#125) (Edit - actually 8th)

We are 39% into the conference schedule and actual results are outperforming the metrics. It remains to be seen if the metrics are wrong, lag, or will prove correct.

As an aside, the notice has circulated lately that the AAC is a weaker league than expected. It maybe true in terms of NCAA bids (TBD), but at the moment Massey shows the AAC as the 7th best D-1 conference.

1/17/18 Update:
1. 4th in standings
2. 9th place per KenPom (#141)
3. 7th place per RPI (now up to #86)
4. 8th place per Sagarin (#119)
5. 8th place per Massey Index (#125) -not updated since Sunday - should have been 8th place in my last post (my error).

1/21/18 Update:
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 3rd placement in standings
2. 9th place per KenPom (#152)
3. 8th place per RPI (#96)
4. 8th place per Sagarin (#121)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#164)
6. Massey Index (will update later when available)

1/22/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 3rd placement in standings
2. 9th place per KenPom (#152)
3. 8th place per RPI (#96)
4. 8th place per Sagarin (#121)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#164)
6. 8th Place Per Massey Index (#116)
7. 8th Place Per KPI (#79)

Through 1/28/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 5th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#159)
3. 8th place per RPI (#117)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#134)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#164)
6. 9th Place Per Massey Index (#122)
7. 8th Place Per KPI (#86)

2/1/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 4th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#157)
3. 8th place per RPI (#105)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#130)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#160)
6. 7th Place Per KPI (#85)

2/5/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 5th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#163)
3. 10th place per RPI (#125)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#140)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#166)
6. 9th Place Per KPI (#96)
7. 9th Massey (#130)

2/7/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 6th AAC place
2. 10th place per KenPom (#169)
3. 10th place per RPI (#129)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#146)
5. 10thPlace per ESPN BPI (#172)
6. 9th Place Per KPI (#97)

2/12/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 7th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#168)
3. 10th place per RPI (#136)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#143)
5. 10thPlace per ESPN BPI (#172)
6. 10th Place Massey Index (#139)

NOTE: KPI not included because last update was 2/5/18

2/15/18 Update
1. 7th AAC place
2. 8th place per KenPom (#158)
3. 8th place per RPI (#118)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#145)
5. 8th Place per ESPN BPI (#162)
6. 8th Place Per KPI (#95)

Bump.

Tiger1983 · 02-19-2018 07:55 AM

(01-15-2018 09:04 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: Here we are as of this writing five games into an 18 game regular season AAC schedule:

1. Tied for 4th in standings
2. 10th place per KenPom (#162)
3. 8th place per RPI (now up to #95)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#133)
5. 9th place per Massey Index (#125) (Edit - actually 8th)

We are 39% into the conference schedule and actual results are outperforming the metrics. It remains to be seen if the metrics are wrong, lag, or will prove correct.

As an aside, the notice has circulated lately that the AAC is a weaker league than expected. It maybe true in terms of NCAA bids (TBD), but at the moment Massey shows the AAC as the 7th best D-1 conference.

1/17/18 Update:
1. 4th in standings
2. 9th place per KenPom (#141)
3. 7th place per RPI (now up to #86)
4. 8th place per Sagarin (#119)
5. 8th place per Massey Index (#125) -not updated since Sunday - should have been 8th place in my last post (my error).

1/21/18 Update:
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 3rd placement in standings
2. 9th place per KenPom (#152)
3. 8th place per RPI (#96)
4. 8th place per Sagarin (#121)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#164)
6. Massey Index (will update later when available)

1/22/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 3rd placement in standings
2. 9th place per KenPom (#152)
3. 8th place per RPI (#96)
4. 8th place per Sagarin (#121)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#164)
6. 8th Place Per Massey Index (#116)
7. 8th Place Per KPI (#79)

Through 1/28/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 5th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#159)
3. 8th place per RPI (#117)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#134)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#164)
6. 9th Place Per Massey Index (#122)
7. 8th Place Per KPI (#86)

2/1/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 4th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#157)
3. 8th place per RPI (#105)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#130)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#160)
6. 7th Place Per KPI (#85)

2/5/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 5th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#163)
3. 10th place per RPI (#125)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#140)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#166)
6. 9th Place Per KPI (#96)
7. 9th Massey (#130)

2/7/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 6th AAC place
2. 10th place per KenPom (#169)
3. 10th place per RPI (#129)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#146)
5. 10thPlace per ESPN BPI (#172)
6. 9th Place Per KPI (#97)

2/12/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 7th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#168)
3. 10th place per RPI (#136)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#143)
5. 10thPlace per ESPN BPI (#172)
6. 10th Place Massey Index (#139)

NOTE: KPI not included because last update was 2/5/18

2/15/18 Update
1. 7th AAC place
2. 8th place per KenPom (#158)
3. 8th place per RPI (#118)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#145)
5. 8th Place per ESPN BPI (#162)
6. 8th Place Per KPI (#95)

2/19/18 Update
1. 6th AAC place
2. 8th place per KenPom (#160)
3. 8th place per RPI (#114)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#131)
5. 8th Place per ESPN BPI (#162)
6. 8th Place per Massey Index (#123)

Bump

Tiger1983 · 02-23-2018 07:37 AM

(01-15-2018 09:04 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: Here we are as of this writing five games into an 18 game regular season AAC schedule:

1. Tied for 4th in standings
2. 10th place per KenPom (#162)
3. 8th place per RPI (now up to #95)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#133)
5. 9th place per Massey Index (#125) (Edit - actually 8th)

We are 39% into the conference schedule and actual results are outperforming the metrics. It remains to be seen if the metrics are wrong, lag, or will prove correct.

As an aside, the notice has circulated lately that the AAC is a weaker league than expected. It maybe true in terms of NCAA bids (TBD), but at the moment Massey shows the AAC as the 7th best D-1 conference.

1/17/18 Update:
1. 4th in standings
2. 9th place per KenPom (#141)
3. 7th place per RPI (now up to #86)
4. 8th place per Sagarin (#119)
5. 8th place per Massey Index (#125) -not updated since Sunday - should have been 8th place in my last post (my error).

1/21/18 Update:
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 3rd placement in standings
2. 9th place per KenPom (#152)
3. 8th place per RPI (#96)
4. 8th place per Sagarin (#121)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#164)
6. Massey Index (will update later when available)

1/22/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 3rd placement in standings
2. 9th place per KenPom (#152)
3. 8th place per RPI (#96)
4. 8th place per Sagarin (#121)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#164)
6. 8th Place Per Massey Index (#116)
7. 8th Place Per KPI (#79)

Through 1/28/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 5th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#159)
3. 8th place per RPI (#117)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#134)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#164)
6. 9th Place Per Massey Index (#122)
7. 8th Place Per KPI (#86)

2/1/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 4th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#157)
3. 8th place per RPI (#105)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#130)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#160)
6. 7th Place Per KPI (#85)

2/5/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 5th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#163)
3. 10th place per RPI (#125)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#140)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#166)
6. 9th Place Per KPI (#96)
7. 9th Massey (#130)

2/7/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 6th AAC place
2. 10th place per KenPom (#169)
3. 10th place per RPI (#129)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#146)
5. 10thPlace per ESPN BPI (#172)
6. 9th Place Per KPI (#97)

2/12/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 7th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#168)
3. 10th place per RPI (#136)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#143)
5. 10thPlace per ESPN BPI (#172)
6. 10th Place Massey Index (#139)

NOTE: KPI not included because last update was 2/5/18

2/15/18 Update
1. 7th AAC place
2. 8th place per KenPom (#158)
3. 8th place per RPI (#118)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#145)
5. 8th Place per ESPN BPI (#162)
6. 8th Place Per KPI (#95)

2/19/18 Update
1. 6th AAC place
2. 8th place per KenPom (#160)
3. 8th place per RPI (#114)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#131)
5. 8th Place per ESPN BPI (#162)
6. 8th Place per Massey Index (#123)

2/23/18 Update
1. 5th AAC place (tied with UCF)
2. 8th place per KenPom (#145)
3. 8th place per RPI (#104)
4. 8th Place per ESPN BPI (#155)
5. 8th Place per Sagarin (#119)

Massey & KPI not updated as of this writing, but I surmise improvement due to win over Houston.

Bump

Tiger1983 · 02-26-2018 07:45 AM

2/26/18 Update
1. 5th AAC place
2. 8th place per KenPom (#142)
3. 7thplace per RPI (#94)
4. 8th Place per ESPN BPI (#152)
5. 8th Place per Sagarin (#114)
6. 6th Place per KPI (#74)
7. 8th Place per Massey (#111)

Tiger1983 · 03-02-2018 09:38 AM

3/2/18 Update
1. 5th AAC place
2. 8th place per KenPom (#166)
3. 9th Place per RPI (#117)
4. 8th Place per ESPN BPI (#166)
5. 9th Place per Sagarin (#147)
6. 7th Place per KPI (#91)

Tiger1983 · 03-05-2018 07:50 AM

3/5/18 Update
1. 5th AAC place
2. 8th place per KenPom (#164)
3. 8th Place per RPI (#115)
4. 8th Place per ESPN BPI (#167)
5. 9th Place per Sagarin (#138)
6. 8th Place per Massey (#132)

bluebacker · 03-05-2018 08:46 AM

So the team was fortunate / over achieved this season.

Pastnerized · 03-05-2018 09:19 AM

Yes.

Tiger1983 · 03-05-2018 09:43 AM

(03-05-2018 08:46 AM)bluebacker Wrote: So the team was fortunate / over achieved this season.

Yes, possible causes of the favorable variance include: luck (e.g, Temple and Samford), beating bad teams by close margins (still counts as a win but harms metrics), wins over teams with injury issues, playing WSU and Houston only once, losing games by wide margins (counts as a loss but disproportionately harms metics), and player fortitude and effort.

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