Here we are as of this writing five games into an 18 game regular season AAC schedule:
1. Tied for 4th in standings
2. 10th place per KenPom (#162)
3. 8th place per RPI (now up to #95)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#133)
5. 9th place per Massey Index (#125) (Edit - actually 8th)
We are 39% into the conference schedule and actual results are outperforming the metrics. It remains to be seen if the metrics are wrong, lag, or will prove correct.
As an aside, the notice has circulated lately that the AAC is a weaker league than expected. It maybe true in terms of NCAA bids (TBD), but at the moment Massey shows the AAC as the 7th best D-1 conference.
1/17/18 Update:
1. 4th in standings
2. 9th place per KenPom (#141)
3. 7th place per RPI (now up to #86)
4. 8th place per Sagarin (#119)
5. 8th place per Massey Index (#125) -not updated since Sunday - should have been 8th place in my last post (my error).
1/21/18 Update:
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 3rd placement in standings
2. 9th place per KenPom (#152)
3. 8th place per RPI (#96)
4. 8th place per Sagarin (#121)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#164)
6. Massey Index (will update later when available)
1/22/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 3rd placement in standings
2. 9th place per KenPom (#152)
3. 8th place per RPI (#96)
4. 8th place per Sagarin (#121)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#164)
6. 8th Place Per Massey Index (#116)
7. 8th Place Per KPI (#79)
Through 1/28/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 5th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#159)
3. 8th place per RPI (#117)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#134)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#164)
6. 9th Place Per Massey Index (#122)
7. 8th Place Per KPI (#86)
2/1/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 4th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#157)
3. 8th place per RPI (#105)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#130)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#160)
6. 7th Place Per KPI (#85)
2/5/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 5th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#163)
3. 10th place per RPI (#125)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#140)
5. 9th Place per ESPN BPI (#166)
6. 9th Place Per KPI (#96)
7. 9th Massey (#130)
2/7/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 6th AAC place
2. 10th place per KenPom (#169)
3. 10th place per RPI (#129)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#146)
5. 10thPlace per ESPN BPI (#172)
6. 9th Place Per KPI (#97)
2/12/18 Update
1. Tied with 2 other teams for 7th AAC place
2. 9th place per KenPom (#168)
3. 10th place per RPI (#136)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#143)
5. 10thPlace per ESPN BPI (#172)
6. 10th Place Massey Index (#139)
NOTE: KPI not included because last update was 2/5/18
2/15/18 Update
1. 7th AAC place
2. 8th place per KenPom (#158)
3. 8th place per RPI (#118)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#145)
5. 8th Place per ESPN BPI (#162)
6. 8th Place Per KPI (#95)
2/19/18 Update
1. 6th AAC place
2. 8th place per KenPom (#160)
3. 8th place per RPI (#114)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#131)
5. 8th Place per ESPN BPI (#162)
6. 8th Place per Massey Index (#123)
2/23/18 Update
1. 5th AAC place (tied with UCF)
2. 8th place per KenPom (#145)
3. 8th place per RPI (#104)
4. 8th Place per ESPN BPI (#155)
5. 8th Place per Sagarin (#119)
Massey & KPI not updated as of this writing, but I surmise improvement due to win over Houston.
Please see later posts for updates.
(This post was last modified: 03-05-2018 07:51 AM by Tiger1983.)
(01-15-2018 09:04 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: Here we are as of this writing five games into an 18 game regular season AAC schedule:
1. Tied for 4th in standings
2. 10th place per KenPom (#162)
3. 8th place per RPI (now up to #95)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#133)
5. 9th place per Massey Index (#125)
We are 39% into the conference schedule and actual results are outperforming the metrics. It remains to be seen if the metrics are wrong, lag, or will prove correct.
As an aside, the notice has circulated lately that the AAC is a weaker league than expected. It maybe true in terms of NCAA bids (TBD), but at the moment Massey shows the AAC as the 7th best D-1 conference.
We won't make the tournament this year, so cares about any of this? Everything this year matters to set the table for next year. We have so many new players that IMO, the only true evaluation that matters will be based on the last 10 games of the season.
We are playing better ball, we are improving and it can now be reasonably argued that we have a shot at winning 8 of the last 10 games we play in. I'm not saying that we will go 8-2, but that on paper and based on how the team is playing, we can have a reasonable expectation to win them.
Most of us have been fans for a long time. We should all understand that as a fan, especially historically of the football program, you have to be able to compartmentalize your joy, whether it is limited to a string of games, each game, or good things happening within a game.
So I can look at us right now and say that we are in huge trouble for 2020, but it does nothing to detract from being satisfied with THIS team being where it was when it lost to Louisville by 9 or being thrilled when Brewton's shot went in.
(01-15-2018 09:04 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: Here we are as of this writing five games into an 18 game regular season AAC schedule:
1. Tied for 4th in standings
2. 10th place per KenPom (#162)
3. 8th place per RPI (now up to #95)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#133)
5. 9th place per Massey Index (#125)
We are 39% into the conference schedule and actual results are outperforming the metrics. It remains to be seen if the metrics are wrong, lag, or will prove correct.
As an aside, the notice has circulated lately that the AAC is a weaker league than expected. It maybe true in terms of NCAA bids (TBD), but at the moment Massey shows the AAC as the 7th best D-1 conference.
We won't make the tournament this year, so cares about any of this? Everything this year matters to set the table for next year. We have so many new players that IMO, the only true evaluation that matters will be based on the last 10 games of the season.
We are playing better ball, we are improving and it can now be reasonably argued that we have a shot at winning 8 of the last 10 games we play in. I'm not saying that we will go 8-2, but that on paper and based on how the team is playing, we can have a reasonable expectation to win them.
Most of us have been fans for a long time. We should all understand that as a fan, especially historically of the football program, you have to be able to compartmentalize your joy, whether it is limited to a string of games, each game, or good things happening within a game.
So I can look at us right now and say that we are in huge trouble for 2020, but it does nothing to detract from being satisfied with THIS team being where it was when it lost to Louisville by 9 or being thrilled when Brewton's shot went in.
(01-15-2018 09:04 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: Here we are as of this writing five games into an 18 game regular season AAC schedule:
1. Tied for 4th in standings
2. 10th place per KenPom (#162)
3. 8th place per RPI (now up to #95)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#133)
5. 9th place per Massey Index (#125)
We are 39% into the conference schedule and actual results are outperforming the metrics. It remains to be seen if the metrics are wrong, lag, or will prove correct.
As an aside, the notice has circulated lately that the AAC is a weaker league than expected. It maybe true in terms of NCAA bids (TBD), but at the moment Massey shows the AAC as the 7th best D-1 conference.
I think that the metrics are lagging the improving ability of the team. A team that starts out with 5 freshmen and 5 Jucos will typically improve more during the season than a team returning all 5 starters. I think that is what we are seeing - this team finding itself and reaching its capability.
(01-15-2018 09:04 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: Here we are as of this writing five games into an 18 game regular season AAC schedule:
1. Tied for 4th in standings
2. 10th place per KenPom (#162)
3. 8th place per RPI (now up to #95)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#133)
5. 9th place per Massey Index (#125)
We are 39% into the conference schedule and actual results are outperforming the metrics. It remains to be seen if the metrics are wrong, lag, or will prove correct.
As an aside, the notice has circulated lately that the AAC is a weaker league than expected. It maybe true in terms of NCAA bids (TBD), but at the moment Massey shows the AAC as the 7th best D-1 conference.
You left out this rating, which is probably the most accurate.
(01-15-2018 09:04 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: Here we are as of this writing five games into an 18 game regular season AAC schedule:
1. Tied for 4th in standings
2. 10th place per KenPom (#162)
3. 8th place per RPI (now up to #95)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#133)
5. 9th place per Massey Index (#125)
We are 39% into the conference schedule and actual results are outperforming the metrics. It remains to be seen if the metrics are wrong, lag, or will prove correct.
As an aside, the notice has circulated lately that the AAC is a weaker league than expected. It maybe true in terms of NCAA bids (TBD), but at the moment Massey shows the AAC as the 7th best D-1 conference.
I think that the metrics are lagging the improving ability of the team. A team that starts out with 5 freshmen and 5 Jucos will typically improve more during the season than a team returning all 5 starters. I think that is what we are seeing - this team finding itself and reaching its capability.
It makes sense because the metrics evaluate results for the entire season. My guess is the figures would look better if viewed from the past three games.
(01-15-2018 09:04 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: Here we are as of this writing five games into an 18 game regular season AAC schedule:
1. Tied for 4th in standings
2. 10th place per KenPom (#162)
3. 8th place per RPI (now up to #95)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#133)
5. 9th place per Massey Index (#125)
We are 39% into the conference schedule and actual results are outperforming the metrics. It remains to be seen if the metrics are wrong, lag, or will prove correct.
As an aside, the notice has circulated lately that the AAC is a weaker league than expected. It maybe true in terms of NCAA bids (TBD), but at the moment Massey shows the AAC as the 7th best D-1 conference.
You left out this rating, which is probably the most accurate.
I wouldn't be shocked if the team squeaks into the NIT. Of course, it would help if people would show up to watch a team that is a hell of a lot better than most people predicted.
(01-15-2018 01:31 PM)TOGC Wrote: I wouldn't be shocked if the team squeaks into the NIT. Of course, it would help if people would show up to watch a team that is a hell of a lot better than most people predicted.
The way the NCAA set up the NIT after they bought it you would almost have to be a bubble team in order to make it to the NIT. This is not your fathers NIT and teams you woudl see make it in decades past are not getting invites.
Mostly a place for P5 schools who finish above .500 and do not make the NCAA .
(01-15-2018 09:04 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: Here we are as of this writing five games into an 18 game regular season AAC schedule:
1. Tied for 4th in standings
2. 10th place per KenPom (#162)
3. 8th place per RPI (now up to #95)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#133)
5. 9th place per Massey Index (#125)
We are 39% into the conference schedule and actual results are outperforming the metrics. It remains to be seen if the metrics are wrong, lag, or will prove correct.
As an aside, the notice has circulated lately that the AAC is a weaker league than expected. It maybe true in terms of NCAA bids (TBD), but at the moment Massey shows the AAC as the 7th best D-1 conference.
Everything I've seen has 3 AAC teams solidly in, with UCF and SMU as possible bubbles. The "2-bid league" sounds good to a certain crowd, but not founded on anything.
(This post was last modified: 01-15-2018 04:49 PM by Tiger87.)
(01-15-2018 09:04 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: Here we are as of this writing five games into an 18 game regular season AAC schedule:
1. Tied for 4th in standings
2. 10th place per KenPom (#162)
3. 8th place per RPI (now up to #95)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#133)
5. 9th place per Massey Index (#125)
We are 39% into the conference schedule and actual results are outperforming the metrics. It remains to be seen if the metrics are wrong, lag, or will prove correct.
As an aside, the notice has circulated lately that the AAC is a weaker league than expected. It maybe true in terms of NCAA bids (TBD), but at the moment Massey shows the AAC as the 7th best D-1 conference.
Everything I've seen has 3 AAC teams solidly in, with UCF and SMU as possible bubbles. The "2-bid league" sounds good to a certain crowd, but not founded on anything.
Honestly, I think the AAC will only get 2 bids (Cinci and WSU). Of course, another team might win the conference tourney.
I think both Houston and SMU will most likely not make it. Lots of basketball left though. If either or both finish strong, they might get in. Need wins vs. Cinci and/or WSU.
(01-15-2018 01:31 PM)TOGC Wrote: I wouldn't be shocked if the team squeaks into the NIT. Of course, it would help if people would show up to watch a team that is a hell of a lot better than most people predicted.
The way the NCAA set up the NIT after they bought it you would almost have to be a bubble team in order to make it to the NIT. This is not your fathers NIT and teams you woudl see make it in decades past are not getting invites.
Mostly a place for P5 schools who finish above .500 and do not make the NCAA .
Plus the 1-bid leagues whose regular season champs do not win their conf tourn auto bid.
(01-15-2018 01:31 PM)TOGC Wrote: I wouldn't be shocked if the team squeaks into the NIT. Of course, it would help if people would show up to watch a team that is a hell of a lot better than most people predicted.
The way the NCAA set up the NIT after they bought it you would almost have to be a bubble team in order to make it to the NIT. This is not your fathers NIT and teams you woudl see make it in decades past are not getting invites.
Mostly a place for P5 schools who finish above .500 and do not make the NCAA .
Plus the 1-bid leagues whose regular season champs do not win their conf tourn auto bid.
If we win a couple more games, you might want to change your sig. That Lawson team (that people would be stupid not to see how superior it was over this one, per the hairdo) was one game ahead of where we are now (13-5, 3-2) and went 6-8 the rest of the way.
(01-15-2018 09:04 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: Here we are as of this writing five games into an 18 game regular season AAC schedule:
1. Tied for 4th in standings
2. 10th place per KenPom (#162)
3. 8th place per RPI (now up to #95)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#133)
5. 9th place per Massey Index (#125)
We are 39% into the conference schedule and actual results are outperforming the metrics. It remains to be seen if the metrics are wrong, lag, or will prove correct.
As an aside, the notice has circulated lately that the AAC is a weaker league than expected. It maybe true in terms of NCAA bids (TBD), but at the moment Massey shows the AAC as the 7th best D-1 conference.
Everything I've seen has 3 AAC teams solidly in, with UCF and SMU as possible bubbles. The "2-bid league" sounds good to a certain crowd, but not founded on anything.
Honestly, I think the AAC will only get 2 bids (Cinci and WSU). Of course, another team might win the conference tourney.
I think both Houston and SMU will most likely not make it. Lots of basketball left though. If either or both finish strong, they might get in. Need wins vs. Cinci and/or WSU.
I don't see it. It happens this time every year when we get myopic and only focused on the craziness in our own league. But it actually happens in all leagues.
And they have to fill the brackets with 68 teams. We've always had at least 2 teams in, and we've added WSU. Three is the new floor.
(01-15-2018 09:04 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: Here we are as of this writing five games into an 18 game regular season AAC schedule:
1. Tied for 4th in standings
2. 10th place per KenPom (#162)
3. 8th place per RPI (now up to #95)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#133)
5. 9th place per Massey Index (#125)
We are 39% into the conference schedule and actual results are outperforming the metrics. It remains to be seen if the metrics are wrong, lag, or will prove correct.
As an aside, the notice has circulated lately that the AAC is a weaker league than expected. It maybe true in terms of NCAA bids (TBD), but at the moment Massey shows the AAC as the 7th best D-1 conference.
Everything I've seen has 3 AAC teams solidly in, with UCF and SMU as possible bubbles. The "2-bid league" sounds good to a certain crowd, but not founded on anything.
Honestly, I think the AAC will only get 2 bids (Cinci and WSU). Of course, another team might win the conference tourney.
I think both Houston and SMU will most likely not make it. Lots of basketball left though. If either or both finish strong, they might get in. Need wins vs. Cinci and/or WSU.
I don't see it. It happens this time every year when we get myopic and only focused on the craziness in our own league. But it actually happens in all leagues.
And they have to fill the brackets with 68 teams. We've always had at least 2 teams in, and we've added WSU. Three is the new floor.
There’s really too much basketball left to do anything other than speculate. If Houston and SMU finish strong, they definitely have a good chance.
I hope we get in as many AAC teams as possible, so I hope you’re right.
(01-15-2018 09:04 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote: Here we are as of this writing five games into an 18 game regular season AAC schedule:
1. Tied for 4th in standings
2. 10th place per KenPom (#162)
3. 8th place per RPI (now up to #95)
4. 9th place per Sagarin (#133)
5. 9th place per Massey Index (#125)
We are 39% into the conference schedule and actual results are outperforming the metrics. It remains to be seen if the metrics are wrong, lag, or will prove correct.
As an aside, the notice has circulated lately that the AAC is a weaker league than expected. It maybe true in terms of NCAA bids (TBD), but at the moment Massey shows the AAC as the 7th best D-1 conference.
Meh
The American was 7th last year
It’ll be 7th again this year
Wrong rating to use to show the American is weaker
(01-15-2018 01:31 PM)TOGC Wrote: I wouldn't be shocked if the team squeaks into the NIT. Of course, it would help if people would show up to watch a team that is a hell of a lot better than most people predicted.
The way the NCAA set up the NIT after they bought it you would almost have to be a bubble team in order to make it to the NIT. This is not your fathers NIT and teams you woudl see make it in decades past are not getting invites.
Mostly a place for P5 schools who finish above .500 and do not make the NCAA .
Plus the 1-bid leagues whose regular season champs do not win their conf tourn auto bid.
If we win a couple more games, you might want to change your sig. That Lawson team (that people would be stupid not to see how superior it was over this one, per the hairdo) was one game ahead of where we are now (13-5, 3-2) and went 6-8 the rest of the way.
Don't be shocked when this team finishes with a better final record than last year's team.
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Where We Stand (Updated 3/5/18)
Where We Stand (Updated 3/5/18) 
