Thought it would be interesting given the unbalanced nature of the schedule to see who has the easiest and hardest route of the top four. I put road games first, because those are traditionally the hardest and the team that can win on the road usually has the best chance to win the title. Order is least difficult to most difficult using current records.

Opponents Away Record (Total)

1. ODU: 69-91
T2. Marshall/wkcc: 79-83
3. MT: 85-76

*Analysis: ODU clearly has the easiest road schedule of the top four, but this includes all games or games already played. Therefore...

Opponents Away Record (Rest of the Way)

1. wkcc: 47-60
2. Marshall 60-66
3. MT: 36-36
4. ODU: 47-44


*Analysis: The contradiction becomes apparent. While ODU has the easiest overall they currently have the most difficult remaining road schedule if we go by record only. However, Marshall still has to play seven road games in conference. ODU only five while MT only has four left to play. Despite the record of opponents I give the edge here to Marshall having the most difficult just because of the sheer number of road games they have left (but that is not a slam dunk - certainly debatable) and a toss up between MT and wkcc on who has the easiest path (given that MT only has four left). In other words, just looking at the road trips didn't really help clear things up.

Overall Difficulty of Schedule (Opponents W% Rest of Way)
1. Marshall: .455
2. wkcc: .466
3. MT: .482
4. ODU: .492

*Analysis: Marshall and wkcc appear to have the easiest remaining schedule on paper both in total and on the road; however, this factor is complicated because those two teams are also the two the have the most road games to play. The two that ostensibly have the most difficult schedule on paper (MT and ODU) have the fewest of road games left to play. When I set out to look at this I thought it might provide some insight on how the remainder of the season may play out, but I unfortunately didn't have an overwhelming view one way or another. Looking at records alone didn't provide definitive evidence for predicting how things will shake out, which probably makes sense given the varying degrees of difficulty that make up our records, respectively, in the non-conference - which for now still makes up the preponderance of our current records. Certainly there are other variables that could be considered to further extrapolate; however, this is the one I went with. And when I did this I didn't realize beforehand that one team (Marshall) has almost double the remaining road games as another team (MT). Does that matter? Not sure.

What do y'all think?

I wonder how it would look if RPI were factored in, instead of winning %'s.

The road can be tough. Just ask MT after a loss at UTEP last season.

I find it interesting that all of the top 5 team's losses are to other teams in the Top Five.

I also think that LaTech will play a factor when it's all said and done.

Which team may lose at Southern Miss (who is undefeated at home, I think) ?

Which team lays a turd on the Florida trip, like MT almost did (in both games down there) ?

I wouldn't expect the results to be much different given how much of the RPI is predicated on SOS (which is nothing more than records).

Opponent RPI Averages...

Western: 210
Marshall 205
Middle: 198
ODU: 190

Still get the two with the easiest and two with the toughest, but as you can tell both via records and the RPI numbers there isn't a lot of difference.

That's why if I were going to peg the team with most difficult path I would probably go with Marshall just because of their propensity to struggle away from home and the fact they have the most road games left. The Toppers seem to have the easiest path even though they have six road games left but four of those six are the Texas swings and not one of those four teams has winning record either in or outside of conference. Very much believe it's going to come down to the final weekend. Closing out the season @MT and @UAB is a tough swing for the tops and Marshall - both of which have to do that the final weekend of regular season.

One thing is certain. All of us are going to see our SOS lose ground over the final half of the season.

For some reason, I foresee UAB winning it all in Frisco.

I think HaHa Lee will put it all together by then. Along with Cokely and the point guard (all seniors), that's a heckuva combo.

This is the most competitive C-USA has been in years. There is no true leader right now, and the top 4-5 teams are so close, it is tough to determine who will be in the top 4 at the end of the regular season. Marshall and UAB are on the rise and both WKU and MT were already there. Who even knows about ODU?!? This has been a fun year and I think the battle for the top 4 teams will come down to the final few games.

What if I project the final records based on kenpom? Kenpom as of this post:

43 WKU
52 MTSU
69 ODU (nice)
84 UAB
133 Marshall

WKU = 11 remaining wins, 25-6, #2 seed
MTSU = 11 remaining wins, 25-5, #1 seed (tiebreaker over WKU)
ODU = 9 remaining wins, 24-6, #3 seed
UAB = 7 remaining wins, 20 wins total, #5 seed
Marshall = 7 remaining wins, 21 wins total, #4 seed

That wasn't nearly as exciting as I had hoped. I was thinking of adjusting the rank based on home/away but that's a lot more work than I can afford to do right now. Is there another better way to predict?

(01-23-2018 01:50 PM)odu09 Wrote:  What if I project the final records based on kenpom? Kenpom as of this post:

43 WKU
52 MTSU
69 ODU (nice)
84 UAB
133 Marshall

WKU = 11 remaining wins, 25-6, #2 seed
MTSU = 11 remaining wins, 25-5, #1 seed (tiebreaker over WKU)
ODU = 9 remaining wins, 24-6, #3 seed
UAB = 7 remaining wins, 20 wins total, #5 seed
Marshall = 7 remaining wins, 21 wins total, #4 seed

That wasn't nearly as exciting as I had hoped. I was thinking of adjusting the rank based on home/away but that's a lot more work than I can afford to do right now. Is there another better way to predict?

It is impossible for both MT and wkcc to win out, because we still play each other again.

RPI Forecast Predicts the Following (keep in mind these do not include non-D1 games)...

#1 Middle Tennessee (30) 22-7, 15-3
#2 Western Kentucky (48) 21-9, 14-4
#3 Old Dominion (74) 23-7, 15-4
#4 UAB (158) 19-10, 12-6
#5 Marshall (101) 19-11, 11-7

http://www.rpiforecast.com/index2.html

(01-23-2018 02:03 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  

(01-23-2018 01:50 PM)odu09 Wrote:  What if I project the final records based on kenpom? Kenpom as of this post:

43 WKU
52 MTSU
69 ODU (nice)
84 UAB
133 Marshall

WKU = 11 remaining wins, 25-6, #2 seed
MTSU = 11 remaining wins, 25-5, #1 seed (tiebreaker over WKU)
ODU = 9 remaining wins, 24-6, #3 seed
UAB = 7 remaining wins, 20 wins total, #5 seed
Marshall = 7 remaining wins, 21 wins total, #4 seed

That wasn't nearly as exciting as I had hoped. I was thinking of adjusting the rank based on home/away but that's a lot more work than I can afford to do right now. Is there another better way to predict?

It is impossible for both MT and wkcc to win out, because we still play each other again.

Whoops. It's more like I'm full of crap then because I miscounted in the process.

#1 WKU 25-6
#2 MTSU 24-6
#3 ODU
#4 Marshall
#5 UAB

This has the same feel as C-USA 2.5 back in 2014 when MT, La Tech, Tulsa and Southern Miss all finished with identical 13-4 records in league play. We could have something like that happen again this year.

Tulsa - being the late bloomer after going 5-9 in non-conference - won the tourney.

From teamrankings.com:

Seed Team Quarter Semi Champ Win

1.8 Middle 99% 82% 52% 32%

2.3 WKU 99% 77% 44% 24%

2.4 ODU 99% 75% 42% 22%

4.7 UAB 90% 54% 24% 11%

4.9 Marsh 83% 37% 13% 4%

6.6 LT 77% 31% 13% 5%

Interesting to note they believe LT has a better chance at winning the tournament than Marshall

(01-23-2018 02:27 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  This has the same feel as C-USA 2.5 back in 2014 when MT, La Tech, Tulsa and Southern Miss all finished with identical 13-4 records in league play. We could have something like that happen again this year.

Tulsa - being the late bloomer after going 5-9 in non-conference - won the tourney.

Yeah Tulsa got hot and went on a heck of a run. We loss to them in the tournament otherwise I think we would have won it that year. Can you believe our championship game was on ABC back then?

(01-23-2018 02:37 PM)odu09 Wrote:  From teamrankings.com:

Seed Team Quarter Semi Champ Win

1.8 Middle 99% 82% 52% 32%

2.3 WKU 99% 77% 44% 24%

2.4 ODU 99% 75% 42% 22%

4.7 UAB 90% 54% 24% 11%

4.9 Marsh 83% 37% 13% 4%

6.6 LT 77% 31% 13% 5%

Interesting to note they believe LT has a better chance at winning the tournament than Marshall

Has this prediction been updated since LT's slide in conference play?

(01-23-2018 03:19 PM)Surbadger Wrote:  

(01-23-2018 02:37 PM)odu09 Wrote:  From teamrankings.com:

Seed Team Quarter Semi Champ Win

1.8 Middle 99% 82% 52% 32%

2.3 WKU 99% 77% 44% 24%

2.4 ODU 99% 75% 42% 22%

4.7 UAB 90% 54% 24% 11%

4.9 Marsh 83% 37% 13% 4%

6.6 LT 77% 31% 13% 5%

Interesting to note they believe LT has a better chance at winning the tournament than Marshall

Has this prediction been updated since LT's slide in conference play?

These are current predictions with the current records, yes.

I did the same exercise using ESPN's BPI, which is a predictive index. If you go to any future game they give a percentage of winning for each team. Here is how they have our top teams finishing out:

#1 ODU, 10-1, finishing 16-2. Loss to WKU

#2 MTSU, 10-1, finishing 16-2. Loss to ODU.

#3 WKU, 9-2, finishing 15-3. Losses to MT and UAB.

#4 UAB, 8-3, finishing 12-6.

#5 LT, 8-2, finishing 11-7.

#? Mars, 2-9, finishing 7-11.

Some notes: it seems ESPN doesn't take into account Marshall returning to full strength with their block machine. They know that LT has had a difficult schedule so they think they will finish strong, which would be no surprise. The largest percentage of victory is MT vs Rice, which gives MT a 99.1% chance of winning. That's the highest I've ever seen - granted I haven't paid too close attention. ODU's most difficult win will be against LT with a 52% of winning.

(01-23-2018 02:40 PM)MT FAN Wrote:  

(01-23-2018 02:27 PM)ThreeifbyLightning Wrote:  This has the same feel as C-USA 2.5 back in 2014 when MT, La Tech, Tulsa and Southern Miss all finished with identical 13-4 records in league play. We could have something like that happen again this year.

Tulsa - being the late bloomer after going 5-9 in non-conference - won the tourney.

Yeah Tulsa got hot and went on a heck of a run. We loss to them in the tournament otherwise I think we would have won it that year. Can you believe our championship game was on ABC back then?

Actually it was on CBS, and that was from a previous contract when Memphis was a perrenial top 25 team. Once they were gone, CBS ran out the final years and it was done.

Someone's gonna get bit by the Florida schools. They both seemed improved this year. MT was very, very lucky to escape SoFlo with no losses.

(01-24-2018 09:00 AM)KAjunRaider Wrote:  Someone's gonna get bit by the Florida schools. They both seemed improved this year. MT was very, very lucky to escape SoFlo with no losses.

ODU had its ugliest game of the season against FIU. No road trip is safe