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C-USA's 2018 college football returning production
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Volkmar Offline
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Post: #21
RE: C-USA's 2018 college football returning production
(02-03-2018 12:26 AM)goherd24herdfans Wrote:  I always did crack up when people would say "We got everyone coming back next year" that are fans of a team that went 3-9.

Yes, a year of experience and growth will make someone slightly better. Id rather have 2 people coming back from a 2-10 team than all of them. Bad is still bad.

The only time that really matters is if you had a team go 10-2 and returns everyone, then you have that slightly better that could be a special season. If you're 2-10, you should be sad everyone is back.

True. What sucks though is when you have a pretty decent team, return nearly everyone, but are then saddled with injuries the next season. I think back to UTSA in 2013, when we went 7-5 in our third season of football and would've qualified for our first bowl back then if not for the NCAA rule disallowing it because it was only our 2nd year in FBS. We got basically everyone back the following year, were mostly a senior and junior laden team in 2014, and had really high hopes. But we had one injury after another at QB until we were down to using our 3rd and 4th string at the position, and a couple injuries on the OL. You're not gonna have much depth in the 4th year of your program, so it killed our season as we went 4-8.

Not-So-Fun Fact: We qualified for a bowl in 2016 as a .500 team (6-6). But in our three winning seasons of FBS football so far (8-4 in the WAC in 2012, 7-5 in C-USA in 2013, and 6-5 last year), we didn't get into a bowl in either (lol), for different reasons of course.
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2018 11:11 AM by Volkmar.)
02-03-2018 09:29 AM
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goliath74 Offline
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Post: #22
RE: C-USA's 2018 college football returning production
(02-03-2018 12:26 AM)goherd24herdfans Wrote:  I always did crack up when people would say "We got everyone coming back next year" that are fans of a team that went 3-9.

Yes, a year of experience and growth will make someone slightly better. Id rather have 2 people coming back from a 2-10 team than all of them. Bad is still bad.

The only time that really matters is if you had a team go 10-2 and returns everyone, then you have that slightly better that could be a special season. If you're 2-10, you should be sad everyone is back.

FAU returned almost everyone from the 2016 3-9 squad. And these returnees made 75% of contribution to an 11-3 effort. Experience does matter. perhaps, not as much as coaching and talent, but it does matter.
02-05-2018 08:37 AM
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va-eagle Offline
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Post: #23
RE: C-USA's 2018 college football returning production
(02-05-2018 08:37 AM)goliath74 Wrote:  
(02-03-2018 12:26 AM)goherd24herdfans Wrote:  I always did crack up when people would say "We got everyone coming back next year" that are fans of a team that went 3-9.

Yes, a year of experience and growth will make someone slightly better. Id rather have 2 people coming back from a 2-10 team than all of them. Bad is still bad.

The only time that really matters is if you had a team go 10-2 and returns everyone, then you have that slightly better that could be a special season. If you're 2-10, you should be sad everyone is back.

FAU returned almost everyone from the 2016 3-9 squad. And these returnees made 75% of contribution to an 11-3 effort. Experience does matter. perhaps, not as much as coaching and talent, but it does matter.

apples n oranges. Major coaching staff upgrade is where FAU benefited.
02-05-2018 08:41 AM
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49RFootballNow Offline
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Post: #24
RE: C-USA's 2018 college football returning production
(02-02-2018 08:46 AM)ghostofclt Wrote:  clt says a lot of poop is still not good.

Well that depends on whether you need a lot of fertilizer or not.
02-05-2018 10:56 AM
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XYZ Offline
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Post: #25
RE: C-USA's 2018 college football returning production
(02-05-2018 08:41 AM)va-eagle Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 08:37 AM)goliath74 Wrote:  
(02-03-2018 12:26 AM)goherd24herdfans Wrote:  I always did crack up when people would say "We got everyone coming back next year" that are fans of a team that went 3-9.

Yes, a year of experience and growth will make someone slightly better. Id rather have 2 people coming back from a 2-10 team than all of them. Bad is still bad.

The only time that really matters is if you had a team go 10-2 and returns everyone, then you have that slightly better that could be a special season. If you're 2-10, you should be sad everyone is back.

FAU returned almost everyone from the 2016 3-9 squad. And these returnees made 75% of contribution to an 11-3 effort. Experience does matter. perhaps, not as much as coaching and talent, but it does matter.

apples n oranges. Major coaching staff upgrade is where FAU benefited.

Coaching staff helped too, but the team would not have been nearly as good without the returning experience.
02-05-2018 11:20 AM
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inutech Offline
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Post: #26
RE: C-USA's 2018 college football returning production
(02-03-2018 09:29 AM)Volkmar Wrote:  Not-So-Fun Fact: We qualified for a bowl in 2016 as a .500 team (6-6). But in our three winning seasons of FBS football so far (8-4 in the WAC in 2012, 7-5 in C-USA in 2013, and 6-5 last year), we didn't get into a bowl in either (lol), for different reasons of course.


This is why I always bristle a little at number of bowl seasons or bowl seasons in a row as a meaningful stat. Or when the story is "first bowl since XXXX" or whatever. I understand why it's used as shorthand and sometimes it just makes an interesting (and technically true) narrative, it's only fairly recently that a winning record all but assured a bowl bid (and as you've shown it's not 100% even now).

I could argue that the 3 of the 4 best Tech teams over the last 20 years didn't go to bowls for various reasons (well, really just because the purpose of the bowl system isn't to reward winning records or the best teams in a given season, but to make money).

It's weird.
02-05-2018 02:44 PM
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ghostofclt Offline
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Post: #27
RE: C-USA's 2018 college football returning production
(02-05-2018 10:56 AM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  
(02-02-2018 08:46 AM)ghostofclt Wrote:  clt says a lot of poop is still not good.

Well that depends on whether you need a lot of fertilizer or not.


clt says excellent point, pal.
02-05-2018 05:29 PM
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