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What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
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TrueBlueDrew Offline
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Post: #21
RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
I've been saying this for a while. As cable companies start transitioning from cable tv packages that are only available to a specific city to a streaming content service that is available all over the country via the internet, less emphasis will be put on schools in large markets and more emphasis will be put on schools with established brands and large fan bases. This will eventually spark a wave of realignment as conferences try to maximize the marketability of the content they provide.

I think it'll shake out like this:
TV stations all create an app for their station and charge a subscription for their content similar to what HBO, CBS, Disney, etc are doing.

Cable companies will swoop in and sign contracts with the stations so that they can offer bundle packages like "Pick your 30 favorite tv channels and get unlimited access to all their content for the low, low price of $35 per month! Buy now and we'll throw in ESPN Premium for free!"

ESPN will want to broadcast games that maximize viewership and schools in large markets aren't necessarily giving them that anymore.

Now it's all about national brands, fan bases, and big match ups. Good news for teams with household names, but bad news for schools in large markets who started football programs thinking that alone would be their key to success.
02-02-2018 09:31 AM
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BadgerMJ Offline
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Post: #22
RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
(02-01-2018 04:55 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I am of the opinion that the new media model we are going to see is going to be a content driven one, not a market driven one. With that said, controlling content is going to be critical, not just in terms of quantity but quality.

The Big Ten and SEC are by far the most valuable conferences due to the brands they possess. If either of these conferences were to deprive their competitors of their biggest brands as well as some of above average ones you create a market situation where not only does your market value sky rocket because you've augmented yourself with 2-3 elite programs but also, with the addition of some of above average ones, the quality of the rights that the SEC and/or the Big Ten is significantly higher than your rivals dues to the percentage of controlling share of the entire market you have in your inventory. Compare the difference in value between the SEC and an ACC whose best brands are Florida St, Clemson, VT, etc and an SEC who now controls those aforementioned brands and an ACC whose best brands are now Pitt, Syracuse, and BC. A larger set of content also opens the doors for a BTN2 and SECN2 channel as well as digital and streaming platform services that can further enrich the conference war chest.

With that said, I think both conferences would benefit from pursuing a conference model where they have 20 or 24 teams.

Thoughts?

What will spark it?

$$$

Online and streaming will be the future. If the big outlets like Amazon or Apple decide to go all in and compete with satellite & cable, they'll need content and programming.

Sports is still the hot commodity (see Fox's new TNF deal). If Amazon decided to make a similar deal with college conferences, you could see probably two super conferences. One would be the SEC/ACC/XII and the other would be B1G/PAC/XII, with XII schools being split between the two. You'd end up with conferences that would pretty much be coast to coast, allowing someone like Amazon to have live programming for 12 hours a day, then make up the rest form original content created by the network (like Campus Eats on the B1G... great show BTW...). It would also allow the conference channels/apps to show overflow events and content as well.

I'm sure that the deal would be big enough or additional $$ could be negotiated to cover transportation costs and logistics.

As Puff Daddy said.... "It's All About the Benjamins"
02-02-2018 09:57 AM
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Post: #23
RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
Funny how people tend to learn the wrong lessons from everything that happens in the past.
The European powers (not just France) invested in fixed fortifications to fight the next trench war from better developed infrastructure. Germany had a similar line and tried to do one on the coast. Everyone dashed to build battleships.

WAC 16 did not fail because 16 is an inherently bad number. WAC 16 failed because it prevented schools that desired to play each other annually from doing so and those schools soon figured out they could make more money on a per team basis as an 8 team league than 16. So why aren't the power conferences shrinking to a better number? Because they can make more larger.

If the SEC can be stronger and more profitable with 20 they would be seeking 6 members to help them do that.

For decades 7 or 8 was considered the ideal number then it became 9 or 10, then we heard to the point of exhaustion that 12 was perfect.

The perfect number is the number that best fits your goals and if the market changes (which it has always done) and the ideal number is 20 we will see conferences go to 20, if 16 is the ideal we will see 16 team leagues and if the changes make it better to be in a 9 member conference then there will be risk of that happening as well.
02-02-2018 11:34 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #24
RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
What’s to stop big programs from going independent in football and reaping all the rewards? If anything, this day in age allows for better access to independent programs that can then tailor their schedule to the interest of their fan base. Joining conferences used to be about gaining access, now those doors have been broken down and burned with student-run camera crews and internet streaming.
02-02-2018 11:35 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #25
RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
In a content driven model, I could see the outside chance that the SEC and B1G could make major additions that would completely reshape college football.

Let's say the SEC poaches Florida State and Clemson from the ACC (leaving that league at 12) plus Texas, TCU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State from the Big 12 (leaving them at 6).

Now the B1G adds the 4 Cali schools, plus Washington and Oregon, leaving the PAC at 6.

The PAC takes Kansas State, Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas from what's left of the Big 12, leaving West Virginia and Baylor out in the cold. Those two have little choice but to join the AAC, which welcomes them with open arms. The PAC then picks up the more geographically suited Boise State and BYU, now that the big dogs in the PAC are no longer around to block them.

Now is when things get interesting. The B1G and SEC no longer have any need for the CFP. And, they could go to divisionless scheduling, pairing members the way they want to be paired for a conference schedule. Each of them could stage an 8 team conference tournament, playing down to 2 teams, who would then be matched in a 4 team playoff ay the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl.

But wait, you say. NCAA rules don't allow this. You see where I'm going here. Who cares about those NCAA rules? Those two leagues are strong enough to tell the NCAA to pound sand. These 40 schools can make their own rules.

So, what about the rest of the FBS? After the M(ega)2, we are left with a T(weener)3 in the PAC, ACC and AAC, and a G4 (MWC, MAC, CUSA and SBC). Now that the M2 has blown up those NCAA rules about postseason play, the T3 could have a four team playoff of its own in bowl season, pitting 3 conference champs and a wild card.

Basically, nothing happens, good or bad, to the G4. They are right where the are today. The T3, however, while still very viable in everything but football, are going to take a very big financial haircut from the networks. They still have value, but not $10 million per team value. Maybe they could negotiate in the $6-8 million range. They would be dwarfed by the M2 moneybags.

Again, so what? It really isn't about how many millions you get. Nobody NEEDS that kind of money. What matters is how much do you get relative to your peers. Your peers no longer include teams in the B1G and SEC. You can just drop out of that fiscal arms race and live comfortably within your means. You don't need to pay mega salaries for your coaches, because the ones who are really worth it have already moved up in class. Forget the gold plated toilet seats and laser tag arenas for your players. Learn to live comfortably in your new upper middle class athletic lifestyle, and try not to envy the haves of the athletics rich.

Some of your fans won't be happy, but there may be some who like the new reality.
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2018 12:59 PM by ken d.)
02-02-2018 11:48 AM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #26
RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
Doesn't content feed off a market
Va & NC are the only schools that help SEC & B-10
Tex will expand B-12 into Midwest, NYC & Fla before they give up LHN
with BYU included in B-12 expansion,
excluding a few states in SEC & B-10, B-12 would be coast to coast
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2018 12:30 PM by templefootballfan.)
02-02-2018 12:21 PM
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ArQ Offline
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Post: #27
RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
(02-02-2018 11:48 AM)ken d Wrote:  In a content driven model, I could see the outside chance that the SEC and B1G could make major additions that would completely reshape college football.

Let's say the SEC poaches Florida State and Clemson from the ACC (leaving that league at 12) plus Texas, TCU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State from the Big 12 (leaving them at 6).

Now the B1G adds the 4 Cali schools, plus Washington and Oregon, leaving the PAC at 6.

The PAC takes Kansas State, Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas from what's left of the Big 12, leaving West Virginia and Baylor out in the cold. Those two have little choice but to join the AAC, which welcomes them with open arms. The PAC then picks up the more geographically suited Boise State and BYU, now that the big dogs in the PAC are no longer around to block them.

Now is when things get interesting. The B1G and SEC no longer have any need for the CFP. And, they could go to divisionless scheduling, pairing members the way they want to be paired for a conference schedule. Each of them could stage an 8 team conference tournament, playing down to 2 teams, who would then be matched in a 4 team playoff ay the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl.

But wait, you say. NCAA rules don't allow this. You see where I'm going here. Who cares about those NCAA rules? Those two leagues are strong enough to tell the NCAA to pound sand. These 40 schools can make their own rules.

So, what about the rest of the FBS? After the M(ega)2, we are left with a T(weener)3 in the PAC, ACC and AAC, and a G4 (MWC, MAC, CUSA and SBC). Now that the M2 has blown up those NCAA rules about postseason play, the T3 could have a four team playoff of its own in bowl season, pitting 3 conference champs and a wild card.

Basically, nothing happens, good or bad, to the G4. They are right where the are today. The T3, however, while still very viable in everything but football, are going to take a very big financial haircut from the networks. They still have value, but not $10 million per team value. Maybe they could negotiate in the $6-8 million range. They would be dwarfed by the M2 moneybags.

Again, so what? It really isn't about how many millions you get. Nobody NEEDS that kind of money. What matters is how much do you get relative to your peers. Your peers no longer include teams in the B1G and SEC. You can just drop out of that fiscal arms race and live comfortably within your means. You don't need to pay mega salaries for your coaches, because the ones who are really worth it have already moved up in class. Forget the gold plated toilet seats and laser tag arenas for your players. Learn to live comfortably in your new upper middle class athletic lifestyle, and try not to envy the haves of the atlhetics rich.

Some of your fans won't be happy, but there may be some who like the new reality.

Or more likely,

SEC takes Oklahoma, OK State, Texas, Texas Tech, everything in ACC except Syracuse, BC, Pitt and Notre Dame.

Notre Dame goes back to Big East.

New Big 12 West:

Baylor, TCU, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Houston.

New Big 12 East:

BC, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Cincinnati, UConn.
02-02-2018 12:25 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #28
RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
(02-02-2018 11:34 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  WAC 16 did not fail because 16 is an inherently bad number. WAC 16 failed because it prevented schools that desired to play each other annually from doing so and those schools soon figured out they could make more money on a per team basis as an 8 team league than 16. So why aren't the power conferences shrinking to a better number? Because they can make more larger.

The other thing about the WAC, though, is that when it split up, it didn't split along geographic lines. A few schools with more leverage than the others dictated the split by choosing a few others to go with them and telling those schools, if you don't say yes right away, we'll just pick someone else and leave you behind.

So yeah, the WAC was an unstable 16, but if any future super-sized conference splits up, it will split the same way. Those with the most leverage will control the split and others will end up holding the bag. For example, if the Big Ten ever grows larger and many become dissatisfied with it, any split would be controlled by what Ohio State and Michigan want to do, not by some collective decision in which everyone gets an equal say.
02-02-2018 01:03 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #29
RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
(02-02-2018 11:48 AM)ken d Wrote:  In a content driven model, I could see the outside chance that the SEC and B1G could make major additions that would completely reshape college football.

Let's say the SEC poaches Florida State and Clemson from the ACC (leaving that league at 12) plus Texas, TCU, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State from the Big 12 (leaving them at 6).

Now the B1G adds the 4 Cali schools, plus Washington and Oregon, leaving the PAC at 6.

The PAC takes Kansas State, Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas from what's left of the Big 12, leaving West Virginia and Baylor out in the cold. Those two have little choice but to join the AAC, which welcomes them with open arms. The PAC then picks up the more geographically suited Boise State and BYU, now that the big dogs in the PAC are no longer around to block them.

Now is when things get interesting. The B1G and SEC no longer have any need for the CFP. And, they could go to divisionless scheduling, pairing members the way they want to be paired for a conference schedule. Each of them could stage an 8 team conference tournament, playing down to 2 teams, who would then be matched in a 4 team playoff ay the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl.

But wait, you say. NCAA rules don't allow this. You see where I'm going here. Who cares about those NCAA rules? Those two leagues are strong enough to tell the NCAA to pound sand. These 40 schools can make their own rules.

So, what about the rest of the FBS? After the M(ega)2, we are left with a T(weener)3 in the PAC, ACC and AAC, and a G4 (MWC, MAC, CUSA and SBC). Now that the M2 has blown up those NCAA rules about postseason play, the T3 could have a four team playoff of its own in bowl season, pitting 3 conference champs and a wild card.

Basically, nothing happens, good or bad, to the G4. They are right where the are today. The T3, however, while still very viable in everything but football, are going to take a very big financial haircut from the networks. They still have value, but not $10 million per team value. Maybe they could negotiate in the $6-8 million range. They would be dwarfed by the M2 moneybags.

Again, so what? It really isn't about how many millions you get. Nobody NEEDS that kind of money. What matters is how much do you get relative to your peers. Your peers no longer include teams in the B1G and SEC. You can just drop out of that fiscal arms race and live comfortably within your means. You don't need to pay mega salaries for your coaches, because the ones who are really worth it have already moved up in class. Forget the gold plated toilet seats and laser tag arenas for your players. Learn to live comfortably in your new upper middle class athletic lifestyle, and try not to envy the haves of the athletics rich.

Some of your fans won't be happy, but there may be some who like the new reality.

This is an interesting scenario for the post-ACC-GOR era (mid-2030s on). I'd argue that the Big Ten is likelier to take Colorado over Oregon and the SEC to take Tech over TCU (if they bother to allow either). Abandoning divisions may indeed be the way for the M2 to go.

Leaving behind Baylor and WV means the Big 12 will likely survive, although will backfill with almost all the current AAC schools. After this, Tulsa and Tulane are the only remaining AAC schools, so they form a more regional conference by absorbing CUSA West. CUSA rebuilds as an eastern conference. The ACC moves Miami to the Atlantic to balance the divisions while Notre Dame leaves for the Big East. The depleted Pac-12 absorbs 4 Big 12 schools plus Boise and Colorado State (BYU stays indy).

"Tweener 3"

ACC
Atlantic: Boston College, Louisville, Miami-FL, NC State, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Coastal: Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Big 12
East: Central Florida, Connecticut, East Carolina, South Florida, Temple, West Virginia
West: Baylor, Cincinnati, Houston, Memphis, Navy*, SMU
Non-FB: Wichita State

Pac-12
East: Colorado State, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, Utah
West: Arizona, Arizona State, Boise State, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State

G5

AAC
East: Arkansas State, Louisiana Tech, Southern Miss, Tulane, UAB
West: North Texas, Rice, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA

CUSA
North: James Madison, Marshall, Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, Western Kentucky
South: Appalachian State, Charlotte, FAU, FIU, Georgia Southern

MAC
East: Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State, Miami-OH, Ohio
West: Ball State, Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Northern Illinois, Toledo, Western Michigan

MWC
Mountain: Air Force, New Mexico, UNLV, Utah State, Wyoming
West: Fresno State, Hawaii*, Nevada, San Diego State, San Jose State

SBC
East: Coastal Carolina, Eastern Kentucky, Georgia State, Liberty*, Troy
West: Louisiana-Lafayette, Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State*, South Alabama, Texas State
Non-FB: Little Rock, Texas-Arlington

Independent
Army, BYU, Massachusetts, Notre Dame

* = football-only affiliate
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2018 01:59 PM by Nerdlinger.)
02-02-2018 01:41 PM
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TerryD Offline
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Post: #30
RE: What will spark the dawn of the mega-conferences?
(02-02-2018 11:35 AM)esayem Wrote:  What’s to stop big programs from going independent in football and reaping all the rewards? If anything, this day in age allows for better access to independent programs that can then tailor their schedule to the interest of their fan base. Joining conferences used to be about gaining access, now those doors have been broken down and burned with student-run camera crews and internet streaming.


That would be an outstanding development, in my opinion.
02-02-2018 02:15 PM
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