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Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #101
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
The best thing Bona? Win the AQ.

Next best? Make sure it's Rhodie across from you at the final if you were to fall.
(This post was last modified: 03-05-2018 04:46 PM by The Cutter of Bish.)
03-05-2018 04:46 PM
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Post: #102
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
And with that Bill and Miriam still hasn't gone to the NCAA Tournament...ever. One of the few original NCAA members that hasn't.
03-05-2018 07:54 PM
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Post: #103
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Western Michigan loses a game they led 18-0 to start, one they should have probably lost by more than a point.
03-05-2018 10:11 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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Post: #104
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(03-05-2018 10:11 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Western Michigan loses a game they led 18-0 to start, one they should have probably lost by more than a point.

Lipscomb had a 32 point 2nd half lead on Florida Gulf Coast yesterday. FGCU cut it to 4.
03-05-2018 10:23 PM
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Post: #105
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
But they didn't come all the way back.
03-05-2018 10:41 PM
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Post: #106
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
It's not over yet but it looks like Saint Mary's is going down. Better to have lost to BYU than Pepperdine if this holds.
03-06-2018 01:03 AM
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Post: #107
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
SMC goes down. Now let's see if BYU can pop someone's bubble.
03-06-2018 01:22 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #108
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(03-06-2018 01:22 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  SMC goes down. Now let's see if BYU can pop someone's bubble.

Yeah, St. Mary's.

The 40's is not where a mid-major wants to be if in the at-large pool.
(This post was last modified: 03-06-2018 05:41 AM by The Cutter of Bish.)
03-06-2018 05:36 AM
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Post: #109
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
St. Mary's will be fine. They lost to the right team. Had they fallen to Pepperdine, then they'd be in serious trouble. Instead they lost to an RPI top 100 team. They have a win over New Mexico State, Gonzaga and two wins over BYU,

They will, however, likely drop into a double digit seed, which is acutally blessing in disguise and a million times better than being in the 8/9/1/16 pod of the bracket.
03-06-2018 07:23 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #110
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(03-06-2018 07:23 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  St. Mary's will be fine. They lost to the right team. Had they fallen to Pepperdine, then they'd be in serious trouble. Instead they lost to an RPI top 100 team. They have a win over New Mexico State, Gonzaga and two wins over BYU,

They will, however, likely drop into a double digit seed, which is acutally blessing in disguise and a million times better than being in the 8/9/1/16 pod of the bracket.

I don't think they will be fine. For one, if BYU beats Gonzaga, Gonzaga probably falls from the top 30, meaning St Mary's would have all of 1 Q1 win.

I think best case for them, they're going to Dayton.
03-06-2018 09:01 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #111
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(03-06-2018 07:23 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  St. Mary's will be fine. They lost to the right team. Had they fallen to Pepperdine, then they'd be in serious trouble. Instead they lost to an RPI top 100 team. They have a win over New Mexico State, Gonzaga and two wins over BYU,

They will, however, likely drop into a double digit seed, which is acutally blessing in disguise and a million times better than being in the 8/9/1/16 pod of the bracket.

That's just it, though...BracketMatrix already had them as a 10, and they don't appear in eight of the 117 brackets. Dropping a line isn't "safe" by any means. NMSU is only a good win IF they win the WAC, much like the wins against BYU in the regular season, the loss to UGA has bounced around in value, and Washington State is just plain bad, as was losing in San Fran.

It's not about losing to BYU as much as SMC's already anemic resume. The ONLY really good win on the resume is the one over Gonzaga, and it's not like Gonzaga's got the good wins this year, either.

Honestly, I like St. Bonaventure's chances as an at-large more than St. Mary's now, and that's not in a good place for either.
03-06-2018 09:47 AM
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Rube Dali Offline
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Post: #112
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Wouldn't it be a hoot if Gonzaga loses and ends up missing the NCAA's? Not saying that it will happen, but it would be incredibly hilarious. Also, I don't think that will be a mid-major getting an at-large this year. Sorry Nevada, MTU, URI, St. Bonnie and St. Mary's. Yes, the Gaels are my first team OUT as of this morning.
03-06-2018 11:19 AM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #113
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(03-06-2018 09:01 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 07:23 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  St. Mary's will be fine. They lost to the right team. Had they fallen to Pepperdine, then they'd be in serious trouble. Instead they lost to an RPI top 100 team. They have a win over New Mexico State, Gonzaga and two wins over BYU,

They will, however, likely drop into a double digit seed, which is acutally blessing in disguise and a million times better than being in the 8/9/1/16 pod of the bracket.

I don't think they will be fine. For one, if BYU beats Gonzaga, Gonzaga probably falls from the top 30, meaning St Mary's would have all of 1 Q1 win.

I think best case for them, they're going to Dayton.

If BYU beats Gonzaga, then Saint Mary's win at BYU is a Tier 1 RPI win.

But, SMC is now in the same boat as every other team projected to have a 9-11 seed and will be rooting for the Zags tonight, because if BYU wins and becomes a bid thief, it hurts not only the teams that your favorite bracket guy projects in the "last 4 in/first 4 out" group, but as an autobid winner BYU would bump one of the 10-11 seed at-large teams down into the First Four. (Any other bid thief would do the same, of course.)
03-06-2018 11:24 AM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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Post: #114
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Is Saint Mary’s even ahead of...Loyola-Chicago and Middle Tennessee on the S-curve?
03-06-2018 12:05 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #115
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(03-06-2018 11:19 AM)Rube Dali Wrote:  Wouldn't it be a hoot if Gonzaga loses and ends up missing the NCAA's? Not saying that it will happen, but it would be incredibly hilarious. Also, I don't think that will be a mid-major getting an at-large this year. Sorry Nevada, MTU, URI, St. Bonnie and St. Mary's. Yes, the Gaels are my first team OUT as of this morning.

I think this year may be the last straw for Gonzaga in the WCC anyway, but, I'm sure a snub would aid any PR for such a departure. It's known Gonzaga, SMC, and BYU do the heavy lifting in the conference...the rest have no pulse. And how ridiculous is it that you can achieve a 29-win season and NOT make the tournament? That happens because your schedule is bad...but the majority of anyone's schedule are conference games. A snub with a 29-5 record is ALL on the WCC...and it becomes all that much more difficult to defend further WCC membership, if there are (enough of) those who want the association because of the schools.
03-06-2018 01:12 PM
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Post: #116
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(03-06-2018 09:01 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(03-06-2018 07:23 AM)_C2_ Wrote:  St. Mary's will be fine. They lost to the right team. Had they fallen to Pepperdine, then they'd be in serious trouble. Instead they lost to an RPI top 100 team. They have a win over New Mexico State, Gonzaga and two wins over BYU,

They will, however, likely drop into a double digit seed, which is acutally blessing in disguise and a million times better than being in the 8/9/1/16 pod of the bracket.

I don't think they will be fine. For one, if BYU beats Gonzaga, Gonzaga probably falls from the top 30, meaning St Mary's would have all of 1 Q1 win.

I think best case for them, they're going to Dayton.

Yeah, they're gonna be a double digit seed. Had they lost one night earlier, I don't know if they get in.
03-06-2018 01:16 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #117
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(03-06-2018 09:47 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  BracketMatrix already had them as a 10

BracketMatrix 03-lol

Somewhere between 70-90% of those brackets are made up by random dudes who just have an opinion about who they would put in a bracket and then post their bracket on the internet. Their opinions are no more or less valid than those of anyone commenting in this thread.

Here's one example. Click on the link and see for yourself: https://aidansbracketology.wordpress.com/

"aidansbracketology: Your Guide to the Best NCAA Brcketology" [sic]

That is what you're relying on when you say "BracketMatrix said this" or "BracketMatrix said that".
03-06-2018 01:26 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #118
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Well the guy who is #1 on their metrics had them yesterday before the loss as the #37 overall seed- so a 10 seed.
#2 Stewart Mandel has them as a 10 seed today
#3 guy has them as 11 seed as next to last team in today
#4 guy has them as 10 seed today
#5 guy has them as out of tourney today

so 3 of the 5 top guys have or will have after #1 guy updates as one of the last teams in or outright out.
03-06-2018 01:32 PM
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Post: #119
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(03-06-2018 11:19 AM)Rube Dali Wrote:  Wouldn't it be a hoot if Gonzaga loses and ends up missing the NCAA's? Not saying that it will happen, but it would be incredibly hilarious. Also, I don't think that will be a mid-major getting an at-large this year. Sorry Nevada, MTU, URI, St. Bonnie and St. Mary's. Yes, the Gaels are my first team OUT as of this morning.

Gonzaga is in. They have wins over Ohio State, SMC, Texas, BYU (x2), are the WCC regular season champion and at worst, a tournament finalist. They have no really bad losses and should they lose to BYU, it becomes a much better loss than it would have been. They may not be seeded as high as they are projected to be seeded but they are no doubt in.
03-06-2018 01:38 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #120
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(03-06-2018 01:32 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Well the guy who is #1 on their metrics had them yesterday before the loss as the #37 overall seed- so a 10 seed.
#2 Stewart Mandel has them as a 10 seed today
#3 guy has them as 11 seed as next to last team in today
#4 guy has them as 10 seed today
#5 guy has them as out of tourney today

so 3 of the 5 top guys have or will have after #1 guy updates as one of the last teams in or outright out.

Yeah, they were out of eight brackets when I posted the original comment, and now they're out of 14. It's currently a sample of 130, even if there's its fair share of bunk.

It's a decent enough composite. The greater point being, not being "safe" in anything, before or after the loss. Really, it was the San Fran one that rocked them. It made beating BYU that much more necessary.
03-06-2018 01:47 PM
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