(02-05-2018 07:09 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  XIV is gonna be all over the news tomorrow.

the last spike was when Obama beat Romney.....the biggie was after the housing collapse....the other comparable spike was during the dot.com bubble....

it wouldn't surprise me a bit if all indices correct 10-15% from historic highs until the revised '17 Q4 GDP number is released (which I think will be revised upwards)

IMO, after they all level out, it then comes down to..........

will corporate tax cuts continue driving revenue growth/higher wages/increased spending that creates the demand required to achieve further investment/expansion by Q3 this year?

does the country have the skilled/unskilled labor pool that will allow continued and sustainable growth?

can congress and DJT develop/implement a long term infrastructure plan that is fiscally responsible?

I'm not too concerned about inflation as long as energy remains at current levels....

housing/health care costs are my #1 concern moving forward

retail should remain flat no matter what happens....

tech only becomes more affordable every day...

food costs should remain relatively constant with the exception of seasonal goods....

there are certainly more......those are the highlights I'm paying attention to....

it's going to interesting to see how health insurance evolves with the indirect dismembering of ZEROcare by signing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.....that one's a biggie for many in disposable income moving forward ....

IMO, the fundamentals will then go back to driving the market once we begin to see the impact of last year's policies by mid year....

she'll find a bottom somewhere....then it'll be a wait and see approach.....profit taking was a gimme putt at some point.....it was simply a matter of when....

'course there's always those darn mid terms coming up that could muck the works

my lol at squirmy mika and crazy joe momento........

it's the fall in the markets right out of the gate.....

you can't laugh any harder at those two dipshites and their minions.....

those dipshites just posted a chart of real wage purchasing power.......guess where it started......

yep, when ZERO started office and it steadily went down......it was like a cavern.....

now, it's the upward tick and inflation fears.....

what a pile of dipshites.....

(02-05-2018 04:27 PM)cb4029 Wrote:  The Trump market had the biggest one day point loss ever...ever.

lol, is that what the MSM is selling? BTW, this should be of no concern to the left considering they don't think many Americans are even in the stock market.

(02-06-2018 08:33 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 04:27 PM)cb4029 Wrote:  The Trump market had the biggest one day point loss ever...ever.

lol, is that what the MSM is selling? BTW, this should be of no concern to the left considering they don't think many Americans are even in the stock market.

I guess I listen to Mainstream Media....CNBC, NY Times, WSJ every day.....not one of them has blamed trump for this. Anyone blaming Trump is just looking for a reason. Just like anyone giving him credit was just looking for a reason to give him credit.

Fair Value on the Dow at Open is down 1200 points, SPX down 60 at this moment. Velocity is caused by a volatility spike due to the XIV crash. I bet Boeing crashes below 300 today. If so, buy every bit you can.

Man, futures are all over the place. Dow only 400 down at open. SPX only down 30

Holy crap. A bunch of bids just came in on /ES its up 30pts in 30 secs

(02-06-2018 08:58 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  Fair Value on the Dow at Open is down 1200 points, SPX down 60 at this moment. Velocity is caused by a volatility spike due to the XIV crash. I bet Boeing crashes below 300 today. If so, buy every bit you can.

Correct me if I'm wrong, as I know very little about the stock market. But is XIV a bet that the market remains calm? So if there's lots of turbulence, the XIV takes a big drop?

(02-06-2018 09:49 AM)BobcatEngineer Wrote:  

(02-06-2018 08:58 AM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  Fair Value on the Dow at Open is down 1200 points, SPX down 60 at this moment. Velocity is caused by a volatility spike due to the XIV crash. I bet Boeing crashes below 300 today. If so, buy every bit you can.

Correct me if I'm wrong, as I know very little about the stock market. But is XIV a bet that the market remains calm? So if there's lots of turbulence, the XIV takes a big drop?

Pretty much. Its an Inverse bet on the VIX. The VIX is a volatility measurement of the S&P 500 created by the CBOE. For the last 18 months, the VIX has been historically low.....in a range of 8.75 to 15. As long as it stayed low the XIV soared. Of course, once the VIX spikes in one day(like yesterday) that XIV basically becomes worthless because the issuing agent(Credit Suisse) doesnt want it to go negative. So it shuts it down and you've gone from holding something that was valued at 112 on the 2nd to nothing this morning.

(02-05-2018 06:50 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  after reading through this thread, it's pretty simple to see those that have the chops and those that don't.....

After reading through this thread I've realized how ignorant I really am.

(02-06-2018 10:13 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 06:50 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  after reading through this thread, it's pretty simple to see those that have the chops and those that don't.....

After reading through this thread I've realized how ignorant I really am.

Same. I just let my financial adviser handle things.

One of these days I need to educate myself on it some more.

(02-06-2018 10:13 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 06:50 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  after reading through this thread, it's pretty simple to see those that have the chops and those that don't.....

After reading through this thread I've realized how ignorant I really am.

I agree which is why I'm only in long term retirement funds. I'll concede I'm not equipped to day trade largely due to lack of time to study individual stocks, etc. I'll leave that to the experts.

All this must have shut down Fidelity's website, I can't seem to get to it to panic sell everything I own

(02-06-2018 10:13 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 06:50 PM)stinkfist Wrote:  after reading through this thread, it's pretty simple to see those that have the chops and those that don't.....

After reading through this thread I've realized how ignorant I really am.

THink of the financial markets as a huge street bazaar.

You have vendor selling individual goods(shares of stock) negotiating prices with prospective buyers.

Then, at the entrance to the bazaar you have guys selling coupons(ETFs and Mutual Funds) to buy multiple goods for a price.

Then, the vendors and buyers get worried that a sand storm is going to come so the insurance sellers(Options and derivatives) come in.

Eventually, a vendor wants to expand his area and sell more goods so he issues bonds and promises a certain amount of interest.


Basically, this correction happened bc the amount of interest on bonds got high enough to entice the customers of the bazaar to look at buying them instead of the vendor's goods. Once that happened, the insurance got stretched and some of the insurance policies turned out to be scams.

Feb 6 (Reuters) - St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard on Tuesday said recent strength in the U.S. labor market may not trigger faster price increases, a view that runs counter to investors' inflation fears currently pushing the stock market lower.

That statement is going to cause the stock market today to have all of the traits of a 12 year old girl who saw the guy she likes making out with her best friend. It will be all over the damned place.


http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2018/...ation.html

(02-06-2018 10:39 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Feb 6 (Reuters) - St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard on Tuesday said recent strength in the U.S. labor market may not trigger faster price increases, a view that runs counter to investors' inflation fears currently pushing the stock market lower.

That statement is going to cause the stock market today to have all of the traits of a 12 year old girl who saw the guy she likes making out with her best friend. It will be all over the damned place.


http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2018/...ation.html

Honestly, I think the bond markets freaked over the wage number on friday for no reason. Wages were up but hours worked were way down. That usually indicates a weather issue where salary workers still get paid but hourly workers work less hours due to those weather issues.


Basically, wages didnt really rise. Just the mix of workers changed due to weather.

(02-06-2018 10:39 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Feb 6 (Reuters) - St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard on Tuesday said recent strength in the U.S. labor market may not trigger faster price increases, a view that runs counter to investors' inflation fears currently pushing the stock market lower.

That statement is going to cause the stock market today to have all of the traits of a 12 year old girl who saw the guy she likes making out with her best friend. It will be all over the damned place.


http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2018/...ation.html

like I mentioned in that very lengthy post (very unusual for me) in #121, I'm not overly concerned with inflation for the reasons I stated.....and didn't look at any published article to come my conclusion......

rising costs in housing and health care are an entire other animal....that's my biggest concern......

the only other concern would be another Katrina gouging doubling fuel prices.....

many a folk forget that gas was around a buck/gal then shot to 3/gal almost immediately.....IIRC 6 of the top 10 subsequent market cap gainers were the oil companies....

I said it back then, 2-2.50/gal is a functional number for most parts of the country.....if it nears 3/gal you'll see a slowing in spending and at 4/gal, it becomes a crippler.......this country has to move people over vast distances......the US isn't freakin' Europe.....

the Katrina gouging can kiss my lily white supply/demand arse......that was a dickin' there....that was nothing more than market manipulation....

From reddit so take it with a grain of salt, but a supposed trader left holding the bag in XIV lost $4 million, including $1.5 million in other people's money. Brutal.



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/xiv-tr...2018-02-06

(02-06-2018 12:19 PM)Kronke Wrote:  From reddit so take it with a grain of salt, but a supposed trader left holding the bag in XIV lost $4 million, including $1.5 million in other people's money. Brutal.



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/xiv-tr...2018-02-06

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!!!!

You live by the XIV. You die by the XIV.

Its chart looked so grand right up until it cratered.