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T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
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Post: #21
RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
(02-10-2018 04:16 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-10-2018 03:42 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  I get you, I'm not trying to shout down your opinion or anything but you could say that about a lot of schools. I don't think if the Big 12 added SMU that they'd suddenly have a major presence in Dallas. And even if it was decades ago, SMU used to be a much bigger deal in Dallas than TCU ever was in Fort Worth, at least since the Leather Helmet era.

In other words, TCU has peaked and they benefit greatly from being around regional rivals that buy tickets and even season tickets so they can guarantee themselves a seat in their stadium on gameday.

What I perceive is that you have an issue with T.C.U.. T.C.U. averaged 12 thousand more in attendance than Houston, earned 73 million more in revenue, plays in a P5 conference, plays in it competitively in the big 3 sports for men, and because of their positioning isn't a bad pickup particularly for the PAC or ACC, especially if they enhance their facilities and add a medical school.

That's what I perceive.

They average more because they play in a conference full of regional rivals. Rival schools buy tickets and season tickets so they don't have to come scalp at the last minute. I know an easy counter is they still drew more fans than Houston in the years since the SWC but it doesn't change the fact that they are partially being propped up. And they are no longer in an easy neighborhood where they have five guaranteed wins each season, so their yearly win count is not gonna be as high as it was in the WAC, C-USA or MWC.

This is isn't TCU vs. Houston and if you noticed, I actually slammed Houston a few posts ago for falling apart after the SWC, unlike TCU. But even after their revival, they still have a fixed ceiling. They can only draw so many fans and their support in DFW isn't anywhere close to dominant, not when they're a small religious school competing with big state schools in Texas and Oklahoma not to mention the behemoth that is the Dallas Cowboys.
02-10-2018 04:47 PM
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Post: #22
RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
(02-10-2018 04:47 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  
(02-10-2018 04:16 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-10-2018 03:42 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  I get you, I'm not trying to shout down your opinion or anything but you could say that about a lot of schools. I don't think if the Big 12 added SMU that they'd suddenly have a major presence in Dallas. And even if it was decades ago, SMU used to be a much bigger deal in Dallas than TCU ever was in Fort Worth, at least since the Leather Helmet era.

In other words, TCU has peaked and they benefit greatly from being around regional rivals that buy tickets and even season tickets so they can guarantee themselves a seat in their stadium on gameday.

What I perceive is that you have an issue with T.C.U.. T.C.U. averaged 12 thousand more in attendance than Houston, earned 73 million more in revenue, plays in a P5 conference, plays in it competitively in the big 3 sports for men, and because of their positioning isn't a bad pickup particularly for the PAC or ACC, especially if they enhance their facilities and add a medical school.

That's what I perceive.

They average more because they play in a conference full of regional rivals. Rival schools buy tickets and season tickets so they don't have to come scalp at the last minute. I know an easy counter is they still drew more fans than Houston in the years since the SWC but it doesn't change the fact that they are partially being propped up. And they are no longer in an easy neighborhood where they have five guaranteed wins each season, so their yearly win count is not gonna be as high as it was in the WAC, C-USA or MWC.

This is isn't TCU vs. Houston and if you noticed, I actually slammed Houston a few posts ago for falling apart after the SWC, unlike TCU. But even after their revival, they still have a fixed ceiling. They can only draw so many fans and their support in DFW isn't anywhere close to dominant, not when they're a small religious school competing with big state schools in Texas and Oklahoma not to mention the behemoth that is the Dallas Cowboys.

They've performed fine in the Big 12.

2012 - 7-6
2013 - 4-8
2014 - 12-1 with a share of the conference title
2015 - 11-2
2016 - 6-7
2017 - 11-3

I don't think anybody's saying they dominate the Big 12 like they did the Mountain West, but they're definitely not on the lower rung.

They also had over $100M in revenue which is 3rd in the league. They're not UT or A&M, but they are not nearly as small time as you are making them out to be.

All in all, they don't have to dominate the DFW market. There's over 6M people there which means their home market is larger than every other Big 12 state except for TX obviously. All they have to do is get decent ratings locally and they'll be doing better than most.
02-10-2018 05:04 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #23
RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
If you look at the TV ratings for CFB games, the two most valuable components, other than the time slot and competition from other games, are the name brands of the teams in the game and whether they are currently ranked. For the first of those two components, OU and UT are the only Big 12 teams with enough "name brand" to move the needle at all.

For the other component: In the last four years, the four years of the CFP, TCU has been ranked for more weeks than any Big 12 team other than OU. Sure, there's no guarantee that will last forever. But sustainability is an issue for every program, and given that TCU has done very well in football for about 20 years and that they are very well-funded, they are more likely to sustain football success than any Big 12 program other than UT and OU.

Put it this way: If another conference was able to bring in the Longhorns on the condition that they had to give UT some local rivals to make it work, the order of value of those local rivals would be: OU (duh), TCU, KU (because of basketball, of course), and Okla. St. And then a very big gap after that.
02-10-2018 05:47 PM
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Post: #24
RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
you guys don't make any sence. why did B-12 even take TCU [ btw TCU did great job ],
to get in Dallas/FtWorth market
your claiming SEC wants Okla to pentatrate Dallas
Pac turned down Okla, but takes TCU for Dallas market
Tex plays at least 1 game yr in Dallas
Baylor right outside Dallas

Hous is SEC market with Tex A&M,
B-12 missed not taking Hous
would turn Hous into B-12 market & keep Pac out of Tex
02-10-2018 08:15 PM
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Post: #25
RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
(02-10-2018 08:15 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  you guys don't make any sence. why did B-12 even take TCU [ btw TCU did great job ],
to get in Dallas/FtWorth market
your claiming SEC wants Okla to pentatrate Dallas
Pac turned down Okla, but takes TCU for Dallas market
Tex plays at least 1 game yr in Dallas
Baylor right outside Dallas

Hous is SEC market with Tex A&M,
B-12 missed not taking Hous
would turn Hous into B-12 market & keep Pac out of Tex

It's "sense".

1. The Big 12 didn't take T.C.U. to get into Dallas Ft.Worth. They took them to keep a more dominant Big 12 presence in DFW when A&M joined the SEC. I said it was a defensive move.

2. The PAC turned down Oklahoma with Oklahoma State but without Texas. It was probably a poor decision. But now they don't stand much of a chance to land Oklahoma or Texas should either of those two want to move because they are so far behind in terms of payouts. They lag the Big 12 by 10 million per team in total revenue (roughly 7 million in TV revenue). The Big 12 trails the SEC by 20 million per school in total revenue (roughly 7 million in TV revenue for all but Texas and Oklahoma. Texas makes much more and Oklahoma is only a about 3-4 million behind the SEC in TV Revenue) and the Big 10 by 8 million in total revenue (this year about 7 million in TV revenue with the same exceptions for Texas and Oklahoma, but next year the SEC will be paying out between 45-46 and the Big 10 will be paying out 51 due to their new contract). So if Texas or Oklahoma leave the most likely prospects will be where they earn more. That's not the PAC. Therefore if the PAC wants to expand into a market of 32 million people (Texas) they'll have to find another way into it. Hence the speculation about T.C.U. and Houston the two largest markets.

3. The SEC would favor Oklahoma because with them they not only DFW market with A&M but also give the SEC another national brand and another new state. So the Sooners are the most economical way to gain what the SEC wants in DFW.

4. Texas A&M outdraws Houston in the Houston market. L.S.U. has strong numbers there as well. Between the two Houston is more of an SEC market. Adding Houston to the Big 12 won't really change that.

5. Lately the SEC has had a season opener in DFW and Oklahoma and Texas do play there annually.

6. Baylor is in Waco and that isn't too far from Dallas if you call 95 miles close. And right now Baylor is still toxic.
(This post was last modified: 02-10-2018 08:34 PM by JRsec.)
02-10-2018 08:30 PM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #26
RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
Dallas is surounded by B-12, Defensive move would be Hous
Okla out of it's elements turns into Nebraka

another option would be B-12 raising thier revenue
which takes expanding & turning LHN into quesa B-12 network
8 schools open up 6 states, Moutain & Pac time zone
foot print would rival the B-10
open up schools to 40 million people to recurit
02-10-2018 08:54 PM
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GE and MTS Offline
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Post: #27
RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
I feel bad for TCU. They seem to be one of the few schools that "gets it" but may be left behind due to things outside their control. If Texas were to go to the Big Ten and demanded an in-state partner, I'd lean towards TCU.
02-11-2018 07:50 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #28
RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
(02-10-2018 10:53 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  "My hope is that super conferences are a thing of the past and are never close to happening again. As I’ve discussed many times, the rugged road of the Big 12 is starting to turn heads in football and basketball. Fans, pundits and other conferences are realizing how difficult and true round robin in football and a double round robin in hoops really is, especially with the depth the Big 12 possesses."

Since it is so rugged, maybe they would be encouraged to invite schools like Cincinnati and UCF to garner easy wins in football and basketball.

It felt like TCU was one of the schools who voted against expansion that time ago. No sympathy if they are stranded in the wilderness again if so.
02-11-2018 09:02 AM
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Post: #29
RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
(02-11-2018 09:02 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(02-10-2018 10:53 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  "My hope is that super conferences are a thing of the past and are never close to happening again. As I’ve discussed many times, the rugged road of the Big 12 is starting to turn heads in football and basketball. Fans, pundits and other conferences are realizing how difficult and true round robin in football and a double round robin in hoops really is, especially with the depth the Big 12 possesses."

Since it is so rugged, maybe they would be encouraged to invite schools like Cincinnati and UCF to garner easy wins in football and basketball.

It felt like TCU was one of the schools who voted against expansion that time ago. No sympathy if they are stranded in the wilderness again if so.

That wasn't really a vote against expansion though.

The Big 12 had no strong options except for maybe BYU and they presented other difficulties.

Mainly, the networks didn't want to pay for it and I think the league just went through the motions to try to get concessions in other areas. All in all, an expansion for the Big 12 at that time and place would have just diluted the money for everyone and it wouldn't have made the league stronger going forward.

Outside of UT and OU, no one really controls their own destiny so I would think the other schools, especially one like TCU, voted how the powers wanted them to vote perhaps in exchange for help when the GOR finally comes to an end.

But some of that is speculation on my part.
02-11-2018 11:25 AM
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Post: #30
RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
(02-11-2018 11:25 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Mainly, the networks didn't want to pay for it and I think the league just went through the motions to try to get concessions in other areas.

Exactly.
02-11-2018 12:31 PM
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XLance Offline
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RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
There are several schools that are being proactive in the Big 12. Baylor built a new stadium, TCU is undergoing extensive renovations, Kansas has a massive project on the books, all for the hope of continued inclusion.
02-11-2018 12:44 PM
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Post: #32
RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
(02-11-2018 12:44 PM)XLance Wrote:  There are several schools that are being proactive in the Big 12. Baylor built a new stadium, TCU is undergoing extensive renovations, Kansas has a massive project on the books, all for the hope of continued inclusion.

And none of them would be taking these drastic measures if they didn't have to. If they truly believed in the security of the Big 12 these projects would be slowly developing if at all. For me there is no greater indicator of the precarious nature of the Big 12 than the catch up projects of these schools and the comments that leak out from their administrations. People and institutions are generally only proactive when preparing for a threat. Mental plans are made for the preparation of perceived threats, physical preparations are made for the preparation of an imminent threat.
02-11-2018 12:56 PM
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RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
(02-11-2018 12:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 12:44 PM)XLance Wrote:  There are several schools that are being proactive in the Big 12. Baylor built a new stadium, TCU is undergoing extensive renovations, Kansas has a massive project on the books, all for the hope of continued inclusion.

And none of them would be taking these drastic measures if they didn't have to. If they truly believed in the security of the Big 12 these projects would be slowly developing if at all. For me there is no greater indicator of the precarious nature of the Big 12 than the catch up projects of these schools and the comments that leak out from their administrations. People and institutions are generally only proactive when preparing for a threat. Mental plans are made for the preparation of perceived threats, physical preparations are made for the preparation of an imminent threat.

It's really is up to Oklahoma.
If they choose to leave the Big 12, the conference blows up. The problem for the Sooners is that Texas has had the time to forge alternatives to following them.
(This post was last modified: 02-11-2018 01:06 PM by XLance.)
02-11-2018 01:04 PM
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Post: #34
RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
(02-11-2018 01:04 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 12:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 12:44 PM)XLance Wrote:  There are several schools that are being proactive in the Big 12. Baylor built a new stadium, TCU is undergoing extensive renovations, Kansas has a massive project on the books, all for the hope of continued inclusion.

And none of them would be taking these drastic measures if they didn't have to. If they truly believed in the security of the Big 12 these projects would be slowly developing if at all. For me there is no greater indicator of the precarious nature of the Big 12 than the catch up projects of these schools and the comments that leak out from their administrations. People and institutions are generally only proactive when preparing for a threat. Mental plans are made for the preparation of perceived threats, physical preparations are made for the preparation of an imminent threat.

It's really is up to Oklahoma.
If they choose to leave the Big 12, the conference blows up. The problem for the Sooners is that Texas has had the time to forge alternatives to following them.

Why would the Sooners be worried about that? Texas wants to keep the RRR and the two of them haven't always been in the same conference. Oklahoma needs to do what is best for OU. If Texas follows them then great. If not, so what.
02-11-2018 01:08 PM
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RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
(02-11-2018 01:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 01:04 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 12:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 12:44 PM)XLance Wrote:  There are several schools that are being proactive in the Big 12. Baylor built a new stadium, TCU is undergoing extensive renovations, Kansas has a massive project on the books, all for the hope of continued inclusion.

And none of them would be taking these drastic measures if they didn't have to. If they truly believed in the security of the Big 12 these projects would be slowly developing if at all. For me there is no greater indicator of the precarious nature of the Big 12 than the catch up projects of these schools and the comments that leak out from their administrations. People and institutions are generally only proactive when preparing for a threat. Mental plans are made for the preparation of perceived threats, physical preparations are made for the preparation of an imminent threat.

It's really is up to Oklahoma.
If they choose to leave the Big 12, the conference blows up. The problem for the Sooners is that Texas has had the time to forge alternatives to following them.

Why would the Sooners be worried about that? Texas wants to keep the RRR and the two of them haven't always been in the same conference. Oklahoma needs to do what is best for OU. If Texas follows them then great. If not, so what.

Guilt and condemnation.
Duke would have been right about Oklahoma all along. It wouldn't hurt in athletic circles, but would stain them professionally.
02-11-2018 01:24 PM
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Post: #36
RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
(02-11-2018 01:24 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 01:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 01:04 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 12:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-11-2018 12:44 PM)XLance Wrote:  There are several schools that are being proactive in the Big 12. Baylor built a new stadium, TCU is undergoing extensive renovations, Kansas has a massive project on the books, all for the hope of continued inclusion.

And none of them would be taking these drastic measures if they didn't have to. If they truly believed in the security of the Big 12 these projects would be slowly developing if at all. For me there is no greater indicator of the precarious nature of the Big 12 than the catch up projects of these schools and the comments that leak out from their administrations. People and institutions are generally only proactive when preparing for a threat. Mental plans are made for the preparation of perceived threats, physical preparations are made for the preparation of an imminent threat.

It's really is up to Oklahoma.
If they choose to leave the Big 12, the conference blows up. The problem for the Sooners is that Texas has had the time to forge alternatives to following them.

Why would the Sooners be worried about that? Texas wants to keep the RRR and the two of them haven't always been in the same conference. Oklahoma needs to do what is best for OU. If Texas follows them then great. If not, so what.

Guilt and condemnation.
Duke would have been right about Oklahoma all along. It wouldn't hurt in athletic circles, but would stain them professionally.

Professional pain lasts about as long as the tenure of a University president.
02-11-2018 02:44 PM
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Post: #37
RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
(02-10-2018 12:23 AM)JRsec Wrote:  You might want to read this. It doesn't say there will be movement, but it confirms what we already know and to have an A.D. speak this candidly is fresh. He simply says he hopes realignment is over (while he upgrades to improve their image and profile) but states firmly "there are no guarantees." He also seems to think that Texas would protect Texas Tech and that Oklahoma would protect Oklahoma State and suspects that Kansas would try to do the same for Kansas State. He talks to those A.D.'s all of the time so I guess he would know.


http://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/20...uarantees/

As it says, anybody who says they can predict accurately 5 or 6 years in the future with the pace of technological change is fooling themselves.
02-11-2018 05:25 PM
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RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
(02-10-2018 04:16 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-10-2018 03:42 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  I get you, I'm not trying to shout down your opinion or anything but you could say that about a lot of schools. I don't think if the Big 12 added SMU that they'd suddenly have a major presence in Dallas. And even if it was decades ago, SMU used to be a much bigger deal in Dallas than TCU ever was in Fort Worth, at least since the Leather Helmet era.

In other words, TCU has peaked and they benefit greatly from being around regional rivals that buy tickets and even season tickets so they can guarantee themselves a seat in their stadium on gameday.

What I perceive is that you have an issue with T.C.U.. T.C.U. averaged 12 thousand more in attendance than Houston, earned 73 million more in revenue, plays in a P5 conference, plays in it competitively in the big 3 sports for men, and because of their positioning isn't a bad pickup particularly for the PAC or ACC, especially if they enhance their facilities and add a medical school.

That's what I perceive.

And TCU is one of only 21 schools to have more than one finish in the top 3 going back to 1984 (when BYU won the title). 17 of those schools have all the AP national titles in that interval. Of the others, UW has a coach's poll title and UGA and Oregon have been to the title game. So its an elite group.
02-11-2018 05:31 PM
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Post: #39
RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
(02-10-2018 04:47 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  
(02-10-2018 04:16 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(02-10-2018 03:42 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  I get you, I'm not trying to shout down your opinion or anything but you could say that about a lot of schools. I don't think if the Big 12 added SMU that they'd suddenly have a major presence in Dallas. And even if it was decades ago, SMU used to be a much bigger deal in Dallas than TCU ever was in Fort Worth, at least since the Leather Helmet era.

In other words, TCU has peaked and they benefit greatly from being around regional rivals that buy tickets and even season tickets so they can guarantee themselves a seat in their stadium on gameday.

What I perceive is that you have an issue with T.C.U.. T.C.U. averaged 12 thousand more in attendance than Houston, earned 73 million more in revenue, plays in a P5 conference, plays in it competitively in the big 3 sports for men, and because of their positioning isn't a bad pickup particularly for the PAC or ACC, especially if they enhance their facilities and add a medical school.

That's what I perceive.

They average more because they play in a conference full of regional rivals. Rival schools buy tickets and season tickets so they don't have to come scalp at the last minute. I know an easy counter is they still drew more fans than Houston in the years since the SWC but it doesn't change the fact that they are partially being propped up. And they are no longer in an easy neighborhood where they have five guaranteed wins each season, so their yearly win count is not gonna be as high as it was in the WAC, C-USA or MWC.

This is isn't TCU vs. Houston and if you noticed, I actually slammed Houston a few posts ago for falling apart after the SWC, unlike TCU. But even after their revival, they still have a fixed ceiling. They can only draw so many fans and their support in DFW isn't anywhere close to dominant, not when they're a small religious school competing with big state schools in Texas and Oklahoma not to mention the behemoth that is the Dallas Cowboys.

Kind of like the Miami Hurricanes?
02-11-2018 05:32 PM
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RE: T.C.U. AD Says About the Future of the Big 12, "There Are No Guarantees."
Yes, how many fans did Miami have before winning it all? How close did they come to dropping football? How many fans would they have if they suddenly started winning 2-5 games a year?

Just because you earn a spot in the club doesn't mean it's permanent. Ask us about that.
02-11-2018 05:50 PM
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