(02-14-2018 01:42 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(02-14-2018 01:25 PM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(02-14-2018 01:17 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(02-14-2018 01:03 AM)ericsrevenge76 Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 10:41 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  Given the needle the Democrats have to thread, taking the Senate will be a long shot. They’ve got a real chance in the House, though.

A 46 seat swing in 2018?

A don't think there is any chance of that at all right now.

Uh, the Dems don't need 46 seats to take over the House. They need only 24. I think they get around 50 btw.

Actually, the Repubs currently have a 45 seat majority in the house.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Sta...sentatives

OK. How many seats do the Democrats have to flip to take over the House then? 24. There are a few vacancies, so the number is 24.

There are already 20 seats where the GOP is in deep trouble. Beyond those 20 seats, there are 11 seats where Trump lost to Clinton. Beyond that, there are another 20 seats where Trump got less than 50%.

On the Democratic side, there are 2 seats where the Dems are in trouble, there are 10 where Trump beat Clinton, and another 10 where Clinton was under 50%. I don't think the GOP can count on any significant ballot splitting from Clinton voters.

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And that's before you just add at least 3 seats to the 'desitined to flip' to the Dems on Monday when the courts ungerrymander Pennsylvania.

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There's a special election for Congress in a GOP held seat coming up in Pennsylvania. It is probably the 100th most likely seat to flip. Election is on March 13th. Trump won it by 20 percent in 2016. He will be going there to campaign. The GOP is probably outspending the Dems.

The GOP will probably hang on there (I'm predicting a 3 or 4 point margin for the GOP), but if they don't.....watch out.

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Lets just say every Democrat and whole lot of Independents are prepared to crawl over broken glass to vote in November. The story of massive Democratic turnout has been well documented in special elections since 2016. But what isn't being reported is the significant decline in GOP voting. A lot of them have been voting by staying at home.

Your numbers don't make any sense, but then again nothing you say ever makes any sense so its just par for the course.

(02-13-2018 10:15 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  This was only a 12 point swing for the Dems. A liberal organizer and attorney defeated the son of a very wealthy congressman in a race in Sarasota.

https://www.vox.com/2018/2/13/17010368/f...garet-good

Unlike some of the upsets, this race featured high voter turnout too.

LOL on the article too. The GOP is so scared of special elections that some of them are simply leaving open Republican seats vacant rather than risk them going to the voters.

The Alabama Republicans have decided to change the rules. lol


http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/01...ll_to.html

Typical, the Republicans have to cheat to win.

He thinks if he repeats the same nonsense enough, it will magically come true. It's sad.

Tom, watch those styxhexenhammer videos and give us your thoughts.

With the couple inconsequential special elections strategy I expect dems take control in about 3000 yrs. Goals

(02-14-2018 02:21 PM)shere khan Wrote:  With the couple inconsequential special elections strategy I expect dems take control in about 3000 yrs. Goals

Nah, I predict January of 2019.

(02-14-2018 02:02 PM)cb4029 Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 10:15 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  This was only a 12 point swing for the Dems. A liberal organizer and attorney defeated the son of a very wealthy congressman in a race in Sarasota.

https://www.vox.com/2018/2/13/17010368/f...garet-good

Unlike some of the upsets, this race featured high voter turnout too.

LOL on the article too. The GOP is so scared of special elections that some of them are simply leaving open Republican seats vacant rather than risk them going to the voters.

The Alabama Republicans have decided to change the rules. lol


http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2018/01...ll_to.html

Typical, the Republicans have to cheat to win.

It would have been even WORSE had they not had these rules. Roy Moore would have run in the GOP primary in 2018 and won it, then caused even more damage to the GOP in the November cycle. Probably would have taken down Governor Ivey too.

This is pretty dumb of the Alabama GOP. Its easier for the Dems to catch lightening in a bottle and win one race (the Governorship) than to win most Senate races in Alabama. Consider this scenario. The intraparty squabble in the Alabama GOP causes Maddox to win in November, then Alabama's 83 year old Republican Senator leaves office midterm. With the new rules, Alabama could have 2 Democratic Senators. Louisiana just elected a Democratic Governor. It can happen in Alabama.

Most likely result of this is to hurt the GOP. But they've got a bigger problem than the Democrats, which is the toxic intraparty fight between the racist/homophobic wing of the Alabama GOP and the Country Club Republicans.

(02-13-2018 10:22 PM)Tulanefan32 Wrote:  Can’t wait til dems take back the House and senate. Lots of things are going to change when the power goes back to people who actually care about this country.

AHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAH

Wow that us the best joke I have heard this week. The DNC doesn't give two fricks about anyone except its agenda. They even intentionally destroy the groups of people they swear to protect.

The GOP could lose the house, but 25 Dems up in Senate and only 8 GOP makes it very hard to flip Senate.


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