RE: What if Pacific, Cal St Fullerton, and Long Beach St had not dropped football?
Strictly looking at Western-focused conferences and schools...
The last season for Long Beach St was 1991, Cal St Fullerton played their last season in 1992, and Pacific dropped football in 1995.
In 1991 the Big West was Fresno St, San Jose St, Pacific, Long Beach St, Cal St Fullerton, UNLV, Utah St, and New Mexico St. The WAC was BYU, San Diego St, Air Force, Utah, Hawaii, Wyoming, UTEP, Colorado St, and New Mexico.
In 1992, Nevada joined the Big West from I-AA and Fresno St moved to the WAC. Arkansas St, Louisiana Tech, Northern Illinois, and UL Lafayette never get invites the following season.
In 1996, Boise St and Idaho join the Big West from I-AA. Without those 3 California schools dropping football, North Texas never gets an invite to join the Big West. San Jose St and UNLV moved to the WAC which now boasted 16 schools (including Rice, SMU, TCU, and Tulsa.)
In 1999, the Mountain West was created. These would be the Western-based conferences in football excluding the PAC. Each of the 3 conferences have 8 schools.
Big West: Long Beach St, Cal State Fullerton, Pacific, Idaho, Boise St, Nevada, Utah St, New Mexico St
WAC: Hawaii, TCU, Fresno St, Rice, SMU, UTEP, San Jose St, Tulsa
MWC: Utah, BYU, Colorado St, Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, San Diego St, UNLV
In 2000, Nevada leaves the Big West for the WAC.
In 2001, TCU joins CUSA from the WAC. The Big West doesn't dissolve football so Boise St, Idaho, New Mexico St, and Utah St remain.
In 2005, Rice, SMU, Tulsa, and UTEP join CUSA from the WAC. TCU joins the MWC from CUSA. This drops the WAC down to 4 schools (Hawaii, Fresno St, San Jose St, Nevada). The WAC disappears and its 4 schools join the Big West. Now we have:
Big West: Hawaii, Fresno St, San Jose St, Long Beach St, Cal St Fullerton, Pacific, Nevada, Idaho, Boise St, Utah St, New Mexico St
MWC: TCU, Utah, BYU, New Mexico, Colorado St, Air Force, Wyoming, UNLV, San Diego St
In 2011, Utah joins the PAC and BYU goes independent. Boise St joins the MWC from the Big West.
In 2012, TCU joins the XII. The MWC adds Fresno St, Hawaii, and Nevada from the Big West. The Big West invites FCS schools Texas St and UTSA.
Big West: San Jose St, Long Beach St, Cal St Fullerton, Pacific, Idaho, Utah St, New Mexico St, Texas St, UTSA
MWC: Hawaii, San Diego St, Fresno St, Nevada, UNLV, Boise St, Wyoming, Colorado St, Air Force, New Mexico
This is where I see the conferences holding except if UTSA accepts their CUSA invite.
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