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cubucks Offline
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TCU AD
I know we always talk 2023-24 as when realignment happens again. Really interesting when an AD says these things. Could be nothing but thought I'd share.

The state of TCU and Big 12

For all the wonders that stadium expansions can do for a college football program, Donati said TCU fans shouldn’t be caught off guard if the university ends up switching conferences again when the next wave of realignment occurs.

“I get asked all the time about conference expansion and realignment in 2024 and will this stadium expansion guarantee we’ll stay in the Big 12 Conference?” Donati said. “The answer is no, there are no guarantees.”

https://www.diehards.com/tcu/tcu-ad-addr...-expansion

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02-18-2018 11:15 AM
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megadrone Offline
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RE: TCU AD
(02-18-2018 11:15 AM)cubucks Wrote:  I know we always talk 2023-24 as when realignment happens again. Really interesting when an AD says these things. Could be nothing but thought I'd share.

The state of TCU and Big 12

For all the wonders that stadium expansions can do for a college football program, Donati said TCU fans shouldn’t be caught off guard if the university ends up switching conferences again when the next wave of realignment occurs.

“I get asked all the time about conference expansion and realignment in 2024 and will this stadium expansion guarantee we’ll stay in the Big 12 Conference?” Donati said. “The answer is no, there are no guarantees.”

https://www.diehards.com/tcu/tcu-ad-addr...-expansion

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The Big 12 is as stable as Texas and Oklahoma are committed to the conference. The TCU AD knows that.
02-18-2018 12:24 PM
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BigHouston Offline
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RE: TCU AD
TCU AD knows the Big12 is a complete mess... But not been a blueblood and voicing his thoughts outloud could bite their small school in the rear come 23-24.
02-18-2018 01:19 PM
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msm96wolf Offline
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RE: TCU AD
Actually, I could see TCU in the ACC. They fit well with the other private schools. They would outdraw UVA, Wake, Duke and BC attendance wise. Bringing in the DFW market if the TV markets still matter in 2023 wouldn't hurt either. 03-wink
02-18-2018 01:40 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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RE: TCU AD
This reminds me of Dennis Dodd's desirability list of B12 schools, where TCU came in 3rd, while Texas Tech was pretty low. TCU and Texas Tech have hugged very close to Texas in B12 politics.

OU is the school that decides if the B12 stands as is. If they stay put, Texas will stay put. But if they go, I see only these scenarios as realistic

1. OU and Texas to B1G (no other schools draw interest); note SEC same scenario, I see option far more problematic for Texas
2. OU and KU to the B1G (Texas stays put, no other schools draw interest)
3. OU and oSu to the SEC (Texas stays put, no other schools draw interest)
4. OU and oSu to SEC, Texas and KU to B1G (no other schools draw interest)
5. either scenario 2 or 3, plus Texas and TCU/Tech (TCU more value) to P12 (requires P12 to get media package up to snuff)
6. doomsday
OU and oSu to SEC, KU and ??? to B1G, Texas, TCU and Texas Tech to P12 along with ??? (ISU and CSU most likely)


#6 falls into the "I'll believe it when I see it" category of way less than 1% chance happening -- it is the only scenario that "kills" the B12, but it's a Haley's comet event. #1 is the worst nightmare scenario of the little 8, but I think not very likely, as if OU and Texas decide to stay together it will be to stay put together. #2 and #3 are the most likely scenarios, as OU is probably going to move and take one school with them. #4 would require Texas to abandon all rivals, and the B1G to jump on KU first, neither of which make any sense to me.

#5 is where the comments by TCU's AD are relevant, and falls in the 5-10% range of probability (again requires P12 to get it's media package right in 2023 to be realistic), and even that probability is overstated. But yes, keep it in mind, TCU with DFW market and high student entrance standards with very strong undergraduate ranking, despite a complete lack of research, make it more attractive than Texas Tech, which would be the bottom school in pretty much every academic and research category in the P12.

But this is all 2024 decisions about 2025, and we are going to see the B1G and P12 all get their next contracts, and the SEC get theirs updated. Only then do I think it's worth investing much energy in analyzing. Right now it's a lot like predicting the 2020 recruiting class.
02-18-2018 01:43 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: TCU AD
I believe TCU is set up for well for any future realignment cycles that may affect the Big 12. They could be a strong option for either the ACC or SEC, not only due to the strength of their athletic programs, but also due to their location in Dallas. If all else fails, and Texas and Oklahoma bolt the Big 12, they still will be well positioned to restock the Big 12 with programs they feel are peers (along with others).

Frankly, I'd be more worried about Texas Tech and/or Baylor.
02-18-2018 02:35 PM
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Big Frog II Offline
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RE: TCU AD
The bottom line is that we must continue to win and not rest on our laurels. Our new medical school opens in 2019 which will help our academic side. Fortunately, we currently have three great coaches in football, basketball , and baseball. Being in the DFW area is also a huge help.

Who knows what 2024 will bring to any conference? With the way fans are changing their viewing habits, every conference could change due to new TV contracts, streaming, etc.
02-18-2018 02:57 PM
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cubucks Offline
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RE: TCU AD
I agree, TCU should be fine no matter what happens.

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02-18-2018 03:00 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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RE: TCU AD
(02-18-2018 03:00 PM)cubucks Wrote:  I agree, TCU should be fine no matter what happens.

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I wouldn't bet on it by the past
1. 1994: SWC announces its done. 4 schools leave. TCU left behind.
3. 1998: WAC announces its losing 8 members. TCU left behind.
4. 2002: CUSA announces its losing 7 members. TCU left behind.
5. 2010: MWC announces its losing 2 best members (Utah&BYU) TCU left behind.
6. 2024: Big 12 loses Texas and OU. TCU is left behind if recent history is any indication.
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2018 03:44 PM by billybobby777.)
02-18-2018 03:41 PM
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gosports1 Offline
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RE: TCU AD
if texas and/or Oklahoma leave the b12, the likely result IMO would be the b12 replenishing with some combo of Cincy, BYU, UCF and Houston. Maybe Memphis, Colorado St or USF would be in mix.
02-18-2018 04:40 PM
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jaredf29 Offline
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RE: TCU AD
Tcu welcome to the aac.
02-18-2018 04:40 PM
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bluesox Offline
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RE: TCU AD
I could see ND wanting tcu as team 16 in the acc if they joined. The other thing is the Texas AD came from tcu so maybe he might try to bring tcu with Texas if the left the big 12. Yet, tcu still could end up in the aac or a big 12 minus a lot of schools. Worst case they could still carve out a good niche with smu, Houston, USF, Ucf, Memphis, etc
02-18-2018 04:49 PM
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C2__ Offline
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RE: TCU AD
@Billybobby777

If there's any justice, TCU should be fine but as you noted history teaches otherwise. TCU just isn't big enough and doesn't command enough attention overall to stay with the elite, which is nothing to be ashamed as that describes most schools and athletic departments.
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2018 04:53 PM by C2__.)
02-18-2018 04:52 PM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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RE: TCU AD
I don't think TCU actually draws near the numbers they report for some of their home games. Sure they get big crowds when Texas, OU, or Texas Texas plays in Fort Worth, but I've seen much smaller crowds for the likes of Kansas.

BYU and ECU seem to have better fan support, without the luxury of playing a P5 home schedule. If TCU doesn't improve their actual attendance numbers, I think they could certainly end up back on the outside. But, so could others in the Big 12.
02-18-2018 09:29 PM
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Wolfman Offline
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RE: TCU AD
If Texas and Oklahoma leave, I think the B12 is still strong enough to pull a couple of teams from the MW and AAC to make a decent conference. The question is how many other teams get picked up?

It doesn't hurt for TCU to keep its name out there.
02-18-2018 10:37 PM
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Big Frog II Offline
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Post: #16
RE: TCU AD
(02-18-2018 09:29 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  I don't think TCU actually draws near the numbers they report for some of their home games. Sure they get big crowds when Texas, OU, or Texas Texas plays in Fort Worth, but I've seen much smaller crowds for the likes of Kansas.

BYU and ECU seem to have better fan support, without the luxury of playing a P5 home schedule. If TCU doesn't improve their actual attendance numbers, I think they could certainly end up back on the outside. But, so could others in the Big 12.

Nobody draws that great for Kansas. As for attendance we do have 34,000 season ticket holders. If the game is scheduled for 11 AM in September or early October you can bet there will be people who do not show up or leave at half time to avoid heat stroke. The hottest game I ever went to was an early October game against Kansas. It was 97 that day. Just over 40,000 showed up but by half time 75% left. It was inhumane to sit out in that heat on metal seats with no shade.

Another thing TCU dose do well is good TV ratings. That is very important in the eyes of the TV people.
02-18-2018 10:58 PM
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jaredf29 Offline
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RE: TCU AD
(02-18-2018 10:37 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  If Texas and Oklahoma leave, I think the B12 is still strong enough to pull a couple of teams from the MW and AAC to make a decent conference. The question is how many other teams get picked up?

It doesn't hurt for TCU to keep its name out there.

You think they’ll keep a major bowl bid, and playoff access? Or do you think the other 4 conferences will take advantage as to basically make an auto bid into the playoff? Would ESPN be willing to throw money at the lowest populous conference based out of 5 states?
02-18-2018 11:25 PM
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C2__ Offline
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RE: TCU AD
And 5 states missing its best/biggest program in one state.
02-18-2018 11:27 PM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #19
RE: TCU AD
revenue at Va & NC is 90 million, B-10 avgs 115 million
it woun't be long before these 2 jump
does SEC take 2 ?
B-12 graps 6
B-12 not going anywhere
02-19-2018 02:17 AM
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CougarRed Offline
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RE: TCU AD
If TCU does not end up with Texas/OU, then TCU and Houston make a valuable pair to the ACC or Pac 12.
(This post was last modified: 02-19-2018 03:32 PM by CougarRed.)
02-19-2018 05:32 AM
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