RE: TCU AD
This reminds me of Dennis Dodd's desirability list of B12 schools, where TCU came in 3rd, while Texas Tech was pretty low. TCU and Texas Tech have hugged very close to Texas in B12 politics.
OU is the school that decides if the B12 stands as is. If they stay put, Texas will stay put. But if they go, I see only these scenarios as realistic
1. OU and Texas to B1G (no other schools draw interest); note SEC same scenario, I see option far more problematic for Texas
2. OU and KU to the B1G (Texas stays put, no other schools draw interest)
3. OU and oSu to the SEC (Texas stays put, no other schools draw interest)
4. OU and oSu to SEC, Texas and KU to B1G (no other schools draw interest)
5. either scenario 2 or 3, plus Texas and TCU/Tech (TCU more value) to P12 (requires P12 to get media package up to snuff)
6. doomsday
OU and oSu to SEC, KU and ??? to B1G, Texas, TCU and Texas Tech to P12 along with ??? (ISU and CSU most likely)
#6 falls into the "I'll believe it when I see it" category of way less than 1% chance happening -- it is the only scenario that "kills" the B12, but it's a Haley's comet event. #1 is the worst nightmare scenario of the little 8, but I think not very likely, as if OU and Texas decide to stay together it will be to stay put together. #2 and #3 are the most likely scenarios, as OU is probably going to move and take one school with them. #4 would require Texas to abandon all rivals, and the B1G to jump on KU first, neither of which make any sense to me.
#5 is where the comments by TCU's AD are relevant, and falls in the 5-10% range of probability (again requires P12 to get it's media package right in 2023 to be realistic), and even that probability is overstated. But yes, keep it in mind, TCU with DFW market and high student entrance standards with very strong undergraduate ranking, despite a complete lack of research, make it more attractive than Texas Tech, which would be the bottom school in pretty much every academic and research category in the P12.
But this is all 2024 decisions about 2025, and we are going to see the B1G and P12 all get their next contracts, and the SEC get theirs updated. Only then do I think it's worth investing much energy in analyzing. Right now it's a lot like predicting the 2020 recruiting class.
|