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2bumsabroad Offline
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Post: #21
RE: Bubble watch
(02-21-2018 08:58 AM)strongv Wrote:  
(02-21-2018 06:50 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  1) Does Temple have to win the Conference tourney to get in?

2) If #1 is true, how deep does Houston have to go in the Conference tourney to get in?

3) Anyway that we get 5 teams in? (Houston and Temple win out or something and then Tulsa wins the Conference tourney....)

Asking for a friend.

1) YES

2) Houston, imo, has to get to 24 wins to guarantee a spot.

3) No way 5 teams get in. They will accept bubble teams from the other major conferences before AAC. AAC is going to have to do damage in this NCAA tourney to get a good rep. Four teams max with a team other than Wichita, Cincy and Houston winning the conference tourney,

1. No. The reason Temple was published on the bubble watch is because they are on the bubble of an at large. Most think 19 wins should do it. 20 is a near guarantee. Their sos and rpi are too high in those cases. The committee has proven time and time again they value SoS over wins

2. Houston has to bomb to not get in. Nearly impossible considering who they play

3. Agree, almost no way 5 get in. The only possible way this is considered is if temple wins out to the finals and loses to only tulsa. Houston must win most of its game. I want to reiterate that temple is definitely still in play for an at large
(This post was last modified: 02-21-2018 09:42 AM by 2bumsabroad.)
02-21-2018 09:40 AM
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Wheatshock Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Bubble watch
(02-21-2018 06:50 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  1) Does Temple have to win the Conference tourney to get in?

2) If #1 is true, how deep does Houston have to go in the Conference tourney to get in?

3) Anyway that we get 5 teams in? (Houston and Temple win out or something and then Tulsa wins the Conference tourney....)

Asking for a friend.

1. Maybe? If they win out the rest of the regular season and win 2 games in the conference tourney they would be 20-13 with a very strong SOS & RPI. That might be enough to get them in. Of course its asking a lot for a painfully inconsistent team to win 5 straight.

2. Even if Houston were to stumble in one of their last four regular season games they would be 24-6 going into the conference tourney. Its pretty hard to see that not being good enough to get them in. Even if they lose a 1st round game in the tourney they might have to sweat a little but I still think they get in.

3. I put the chances of this right up there with the possibility of the US winning gold in men's hockey at the Olympics this year.
02-21-2018 09:46 AM
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bearcatmark Offline
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Post: #23
RE: Bubble watch
(02-21-2018 06:50 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  1) Does Temple have to win the Conference tourney to get in?

2) If #1 is true, how deep does Houston have to go in the Conference tourney to get in?

3) Anyway that we get 5 teams in? (Houston and Temple win out or something and then Tulsa wins the Conference tourney....)

Asking for a friend.

1) No, but they probably need to win out and I don't know how likely that is for Temple.

2) Houston is in now provided they don't have an epic collapse the last 2 weeks of the regular season.

3) It's not happening, but yes there is a scenario. It involves Temple winning out to the conference tournament finals and losing to someone other than UC, Houston or Wichita State. That's not happening, but yea that is a way the American would get 5 teams.
02-21-2018 10:22 AM
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TU4ever Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Bubble watch
1) No, Temple doesn't even have to make the semi-finals to get in. Temple needs 18 wins. Regardless of who it is or where. 18 would give them a low to mid 30s RPI. Despite their bad losses they already have enough quality wins. For them think of it like baseball their magic number is 3.

2) Houston is in, even losing out they would still squeeze in as they would have a top 30 RPI and a good set of wins.

3)Yes, there are a couple scenarios where we can get 5, although it isn't likely.

a} Temple gets in and someone other than Houston, Cincy, WSU, and Temple wins the tournament. 20% chance.

b} UCF wins out to the semi-finals/finals, Temple wins 18 and both survive the bubble. 10%

c} UCF wins out to the finals and losses to a Tulsa/SMU type and sneaks in. Conference champ, UCF, houston, wichita, and Cincy get in. >5%

The problem with getting 5 is it requires a fourth at large, which Temple should give us, then someone doing something we don't expect or UCF having everything fall perfect. When you start getting into maybes (Temple's 50/50 shot) and then ifs (someone winning the tourny/UCF getting in) it's just hard to get them both.

Most likely we have four. Temple and the top 3.

Tulsa doesn't have the resume and SMU is too banged up to get the at larges.

Memphis, UConn, and Tulane are just too far out.
02-21-2018 11:35 AM
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2bumsabroad Offline
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Post: #25
RE: Bubble watch
(02-21-2018 11:35 AM)TU4ever Wrote:  1) No, Temple doesn't even have to make the semi-finals to get in. Temple needs 18 wins. Regardless of who it is or where. 18 would give them a low to mid 30s RPI. Despite their bad losses they already have enough quality wins. For them think of it like baseball their magic number is 3.

2) Houston is in, even losing out they would still squeeze in as they would have a top 30 RPI and a good set of wins.

3)Yes, there are a couple scenarios where we can get 5, although it isn't likely.

a} Temple gets in and someone other than Houston, Cincy, WSU, and Temple wins the tournament. 20% chance.

b} UCF wins out to the semi-finals/finals, Temple wins 18 and both survive the bubble. 10%

c} UCF wins out to the finals and losses to a Tulsa/SMU type and sneaks in. Conference champ, UCF, houston, wichita, and Cincy get in. >5%

The problem with getting 5 is it requires a fourth at large, which Temple should give us, then someone doing something we don't expect or UCF having everything fall perfect. When you start getting into maybes (Temple's 50/50 shot) and then ifs (someone winning the tourny/UCF getting in) it's just hard to get them both.

Most likely we have four. Temple and the top 3.

Tulsa doesn't have the resume and SMU is too banged up to get the at larges.

Memphis, UConn, and Tulane are just too far out.

I believe if temple wins their last 3 regular season game, and 1 and done the tourney, there is no way the committee takes them even with 18 wins. I do believe they can lose to UCF or Tulsa (since its an away game versus a top 100 rpi) and win 2 tourney games and make it. Meaning they go 2-1 regular season and 2-1 in the tourney, losing in the AAC finals. Obviously this would involve beating either houston, wichita, or cincy once, and not losing to uconn or some scrub team in the AAC finals.

Realistically, they need to win out the regular season though or we are putting everything up to chance. The scenario where temple takes two L's and makes it is not a high probability one. Looking at the numbers, the magic number is 19 with only one more loss, meaning a sweep of the regular season.
02-21-2018 12:16 PM
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pesik Offline
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Post: #26
RE: Bubble watch
(02-21-2018 09:46 AM)Wheatshock Wrote:  
(02-21-2018 06:50 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  1) Does Temple have to win the Conference tourney to get in?

2) If #1 is true, how deep does Houston have to go in the Conference tourney to get in?

3) Anyway that we get 5 teams in? (Houston and Temple win out or something and then Tulsa wins the Conference tourney....)

Asking for a friend.

1. Maybe? If they win out the rest of the regular season and win 2 games in the conference tourney they would be 20-13 with a very strong SOS & RPI. That might be enough to get them in. Of course its asking a lot for a painfully inconsistent team to win 5 straight.

2. Even if Houston were to stumble in one of their last four regular season games they would be 24-6 going into the conference tourney. Its pretty hard to see that not being good enough to get them in. Even if they lose a 1st round game in the tourney they might have to sweat a little but I still think they get in.

3. I put the chances of this right up there with the possibility of the US winning gold in men's hockey at the Olympics this year.

only 4 teams since 05 has been left out with under 50 rpi from the top 7 conferences
100% had double digit losses, bad conference records and in leagues that already had 7-ish bids already, and 3 of the 4 were before the tournament expanded to 68 (only 1 with 49 rpi is the lowest left out since)

using rpi wizard losing to ecu, uconn (worst 2 games) and then tulane in the aac tourney another bad loss (finishing 2-3)
we'd finish 42 rpi and 9 loses....
we are a virtual lock at this point, i doubt we'd sweat much
02-21-2018 01:04 PM
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CornellCoog Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Bubble watch
UH is playing really well. Also, we're really, really, really good at Texas Southern's arena. Not just undefeated but we led Arkansas by 30 most of the second half and ran away from Wichita State. We also came back to beat Cincinnati. We're not losing to ECU and UConn at home. The game that has me the most worried is Memphis tomorrow.
02-21-2018 02:10 PM
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sfink16 Offline
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Post: #28
RE: Bubble watch
Temple has to win 4 in a row to have a chance. It is unlikely to happen. Anything short of 4 in a row has them playing in the NIT.
02-21-2018 02:18 PM
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C2__ Offline
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Post: #29
RE: Bubble watch
(02-21-2018 06:50 AM)8BitPirate Wrote:  1) Does Temple have to win the Conference tourney to get in?

2) If #1 is true, how deep does Houston have to go in the Conference tourney to get in?

3) Anyway that we get 5 teams in? (Houston and Temple win out or something and then Tulsa wins the Conference tourney....)

Asking for a friend.

Houston is in with 2 losses or less from here on out. Maybe even 3 losses.
02-21-2018 04:19 PM
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C2__ Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Bubble watch
(02-20-2018 07:43 PM)Weatherdemon Wrote:  No way UH isn’t in as things stand right now. Not sure why they would say “should be”

Because UH has a relatively big number of bad losses and still 5 games to play.
02-21-2018 04:26 PM
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C2__ Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Bubble watch
(02-21-2018 02:10 PM)CornellCoog Wrote:  UH is playing really well. Also, we're really, really, really good at Texas Southern's arena. Not just undefeated but we led Arkansas by 30 most of the second half and ran away from Wichita State. We also came back to beat Cincinnati. We're not losing to ECU and UConn at home. The game that has me the most worried is Memphis tomorrow.

Has UH ever lost at TSU's place? They lost to them at Hofheinz and Hawai'i but never at H&PE and not this year at all.
02-21-2018 06:09 PM
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WhoseHouse? Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Bubble watch
(02-21-2018 06:09 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  
(02-21-2018 02:10 PM)CornellCoog Wrote:  UH is playing really well. Also, we're really, really, really good at Texas Southern's arena. Not just undefeated but we led Arkansas by 30 most of the second half and ran away from Wichita State. We also came back to beat Cincinnati. We're not losing to ECU and UConn at home. The game that has me the most worried is Memphis tomorrow.

Has UH ever lost at TSU's place? They lost to them at Hofheinz and Hawai'i but never at H&PE and not this year at all.
Last year in the NIT.
02-21-2018 06:10 PM
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C2__ Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Bubble watch
Well, at least never in the regular season.
02-21-2018 06:16 PM
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