(03-09-2018 10:27 AM)odu09 Wrote:  Normally I would think the winner of ODU/WKU, but assuming Marshall can cruise against USM, they will have a tank whereas ODU/WKU will not. So I would give the nod to Marshall if they win today. If USM wins, then I take ODU/WKU. That was a pretty terrible answer, wasn't it? EVERYBODY WINS!

If we play man to man all game against WKU, we'll have nothing in the tank. If we mix it up, I think we'll be fine. Of course either scenario is contingent on actually winning.

fwiw, they finally posted the numbers....

we're a 7.5 dog and wku is -1.....

my hem-haw play.....lol.....

Selection 1:
Basketball - NCAA
[854] Marshall 03/09/2018 (12:30 PM)
-4 Points -110 for the 1st Half
110.00 100.00 48566696

I just am not sure wku can beat odu three times in a season. It's always the hardest thing to do. So if we beat odu we'd have to beat Marshall thrice in a season as well.

(03-09-2018 11:08 AM)Jack Bauer Wrote:  I just am not sure wku can beat odu three times in a season. It's always the hardest thing to do. So if we beat odu we'd have to beat Marshall thrice in a season as well.

Yea if we beat ODU and Marshall we would have certainly earned the NCAA bid, hopefully the WKU team showed up last night will be the team that keeps on showing up.,...

(03-09-2018 11:08 AM)Jack Bauer Wrote:  I just am not sure wku can beat odu three times in a season. It's always the hardest thing to do. So if we beat odu we'd have to beat Marshall thrice in a season as well.

Not sure where exactly that prevailing wisdom seems to come from. But the "hard to beat a team 3 times" is flat out wrong. In fact from 2003-2013 data in Division 1 college basketball games the team that went 2-0 heading into the 3rd game had a .724 winning percentage in that 3rd match-up.

I even crossed checked this with some other sports such as NFL. You get near the same percentage (70%) where the team that won the first 2 games also won the third.

(03-09-2018 11:23 AM)Rojogrande Wrote:  

(03-09-2018 11:08 AM)Jack Bauer Wrote:  I just am not sure wku can beat odu three times in a season. It's always the hardest thing to do. So if we beat odu we'd have to beat Marshall thrice in a season as well.

Not sure where exactly that prevailing wisdom seems to come from. But the "hard to beat a team 3 times" is flat out wrong. In fact from 2003-2013 data in Division 1 college basketball games the team that went 2-0 heading into the 3rd game had a .724 winning percentage in that 3rd match-up.

I even crossed checked this with some other sports such as NFL. You get near the same percentage (70%) where the team that won the first 2 games also won the third.

Probably perception. Like how they say that it's easier to find a job when you already have a job. There might be some truth to that but speaking as someone who's spent plenty of time on the wrong side of employment, you tend to remember the rejections a lot more vividly when you're desperate for a job instead of just merely hoping for a job.

Same concept but a different path for college basketball: When you beat a team the first two times, the third time feels like it should be a sure thing, even if you're telling yourself otherwise. When it's not, it's a bitter disappointment, and that stays with you.

That being said, I think the 72.4 percent number is a bit misleading as well because that also counts when a No. 1 or 2 team in their conference plays a pushover in their first tournament game. As an extreme example: I doubt that Gonzaga was worried about the third-meeting curse when they played Loyola Marymount in the WCC tournament.

(03-09-2018 11:46 AM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(03-09-2018 11:23 AM)Rojogrande Wrote:  

(03-09-2018 11:08 AM)Jack Bauer Wrote:  I just am not sure wku can beat odu three times in a season. It's always the hardest thing to do. So if we beat odu we'd have to beat Marshall thrice in a season as well.

Not sure where exactly that prevailing wisdom seems to come from. But the "hard to beat a team 3 times" is flat out wrong. In fact from 2003-2013 data in Division 1 college basketball games the team that went 2-0 heading into the 3rd game had a .724 winning percentage in that 3rd match-up.

I even crossed checked this with some other sports such as NFL. You get near the same percentage (70%) where the team that won the first 2 games also won the third.

Probably perception. Like how they say that it's easier to find a job when you already have a job. There might be some truth to that but speaking as someone who's spent plenty of time on the wrong side of employment, you tend to remember the rejections a lot more vividly when you're desperate for a job instead of just merely hoping for a job.

Same concept but a different path for college basketball: When you beat a team the first two times, the third time feels like it should be a sure thing, even if you're telling yourself otherwise. When it's not, it's a bitter disappointment, and that stays with you.

That being said, I think the 72.4 percent number is a bit misleading as well because that also counts when a No. 1 or 2 team in their conference plays a pushover in their first tournament game. As an extreme example: I doubt that Gonzaga was worried about the third-meeting curse when they played Loyola Marymount in the WCC tournament.

Oh for sure there are outliers as with any statistic. If two good teams are playing either team can win regardless of how many times they have met before and the results of the previous games.

(03-09-2018 10:43 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  fwiw, they finally posted the numbers....

we're a 7.5 dog and wku is -1.....

It looks like ODU is actually favored by 1. I don't get the logic behind that one.