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Mexico is voting for a new President in July
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Mexico is voting for a new President in July
This could get ugly quick.

Here's the current situation. There are four major candidates, and the election is won on a simple plurality.

Here's the lineup

1) Obrador (called "Amlo" by most Mexicans). Leader of the Moreno party. Running in alliance with Mexico's Workers (Communist/Maoist), and a evangelical Christian Party (Encuentro Social). Obrador is a far left populist. He's bad news. He's currently standing between 35-40 percent in the polls (higher in some polls). He is a LEFTIST. Not in the sense of "Barack Obama is a leftist" BS, but a real leftist. Basically combine Donald Trump's vulgar campaigning and calls for popular revolt with economic policies slightly to the right of Hugo Chavez.

2) Ricardo Anaya. Leader of the Center Right PAN Party (That's the party of Vincente Fox). They are in coalition with the Left Wing PRD, and the Social Democratic Party - the Movimiento Social. Basically, this coalition is a 'stop Obrador' coalition. In other words, the PRD and Movimiento feel that Obrador is so dangerous that they're willing to support a right wing party to try and stop Obrador. It would be the equivalent of Bernie Sanders endorsing George W Bush for President. Anaya has been hit with some corruption scandals and is around 20-25 percent in the polls.

3) Jose Meade, Leader of the incumbent PRI (Mexican Presidents cannot run for reelection). He is in coalition with the Green Party of Mexico (which is a decent sized party in Mexico) and the Centrist Nueva Allianza Party. Most Mexicans are not happy with the leadership of the current PRI President, Enrique Pena Nieto, and that hurts this group. They're sitting at around 15-20 percent in the polls. Basically, this group is reasonably consistent ideologically (Centrist). The PAN and PRI loathe each other and have been beating each other up with attacks on each other's corruption.

4) Independent Candidates. There are many, but the fly in the ointment is the candidacy of Margarita Calderon, wife of former Mexican President Felipe Calderon (who was reasonably popular). She has around 5% of the vote. Basically all of her votes would come at the expense of the PAN.

----

So, as things stand right now, Obrador is looking like Mexico's next President. Mexican elections can be volatile and there's certainly the chance that the PRI and Calderon voters will just hold their nose and vote for Anaya to stop Obrador, but its looking a bit ugly right now.

---

Watch this election. If Obrador wins, things could get ugly - quickly. Trump won't have to worry about cancelling NAFTA, because Obrador will do it faster than Trump, causing economic chaos in the USA. Expect zero help from Obrador's Mexico on any issue.

----

Maybe we shouldn't be making life difficult for Mexico's non-Obrador poltical parties (both the PRI and the PAN are tied to NAFTA) for a few months. Deporting dreamers, trying to demolish NAFTA, and screaming about a wall might not the best idea right now. I'd argue neither are a good idea, but they're especially bad ideas until after the Mexican elections in July.


https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-...-election/
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2018 06:35 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
03-16-2018 06:30 PM
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stinkfist Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Mexico is voting for a new President in July
after reading the article, I can't laugh any harder at your posit.....

hell, I didn't have to read it......I only did b/c I knew it would make me laugh more....

you're a trip the light fanatic when it comes to those w/o substance within relevance....

help me out....what exactly will Mexico do as a retaliatory measure relative to DJT's clout.....

give me one.....I'll only ask for one.....

what could they possibly do.....send the pick-em ups with the federales with their ak's mounted on the 4 corners of the bed.......

you really think they're going to hang their mfg/supply chain as hostage and cripple their economy...what the hell.....that's economic suicide......

do you not understand why the USD is all that matters in our and everyone else's world???

that's what you call "leverage" son....

lmmfao....
03-18-2018 03:59 AM
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JMUDunk Online
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Post: #3
Mexico is voting for a new President in July
Yup,
Pretty much this ^^^. They’re gonna somehow make our lives hell?!? Lol.

G’head, make your move. Well send all 30 mm fence and train jumpers on back, no further checks due.

Then build the damn wall, many fine prototypes been proffered.

Rid our system of the drains already here, prevent more from flooding over.

Get a number. Stand in line.
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2018 05:27 AM by JMUDunk.)
03-18-2018 05:27 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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RE: Mexico is voting for a new President in July
Guys,

You do realize that your policies would

1) Seriously damage the US economy in many ways. It would cause severe economic distress in our border states. And cause far reaching economic problems for areas dependent upon trade and migration from Mexico. Your proposal hurts Texas, economically, and would do so in ways that would be obvious. And tradeoff gains would take time to develop, but the bad consequences would be immediate. Farmers having crops rot in the fields. Factories in the MW shutting down because their input costs go up and they can't compete on exports. And then there's the companies and firms that rely on exports to Mexico.

2) Risk actually destroying the Trump EC coalition by finally getting Mexican Americans to start voting in Texas. And it will cause higher Mexican American voter turnout across the board.

Guys, whites are only 43% of the population in Texas and are only 51% of eligible voters. Trump is not popular with a sizable portion of Anglo Texans. The only reason keeping the Dems from a lock on the Electoral College is low voter participation rates among Mexican American US citizens in Texas.

----

But back to Mexico. There are things that the US cannot compel Mexico to do. And they can hurt us if we make it worth their while to do so.
03-18-2018 10:02 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Mexico is voting for a new President in July
(03-18-2018 10:02 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Guys,

You do realize that your policies would

1) Seriously damage the US economy in many ways. It would cause severe economic distress in our border states. And cause far reaching economic problems for areas dependent upon trade and migration from Mexico. Your proposal hurts Texas, economically, and would do so in ways that would be obvious. And tradeoff gains would take time to develop, but the bad consequences would be immediate. Farmers having crops rot in the fields. Factories in the MW shutting down because their input costs go up and they can't compete on exports. And then there's the companies and firms that rely on exports to Mexico.

2) Risk actually destroying the Trump EC coalition by finally getting Mexican Americans to start voting in Texas. And it will cause higher Mexican American voter turnout across the board.

Guys, whites are only 43% of the population in Texas and are only 51% of eligible voters. Trump is not popular with a sizable portion of Anglo Texans. The only reason keeping the Dems from a lock on the Electoral College is low voter participation rates among Mexican American US citizens in Texas.

----

But back to Mexico. There are things that the US cannot compel Mexico to do. And they can hurt us if we make it worth their while to do so.

You’re the one that said Mexico would dump all the trade deals. That ain’t our policy. Frankly, trump has been 20 moves ahead of the media on these trade issues.

There is absolutely ZERO argument that the current trade deals put the US in a poor position, if you notice, NOT ONE Democrat or news talking head ever segments the current trade deals. All they say is “tariffs are not the answer”.

What’s happening is that tariffs are forcing the other countries to the table to negotiate new trade deals that are more fair to the American worker. That’s what this is all about and it’s EXACTLY what Trump promised in his campaign. Mexico is bass ackwards corrupt nation. If Mexico wants to shut down trade in response to our wall—so be it. That’s one less big trade deficit to deal with and while the wall will save the US billions in free medical and educations costs. Frankly, Mexico’s biggest export to the US is poverty. We’ll be just fine without it.
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2018 10:16 AM by Attackcoog.)
03-18-2018 10:10 AM
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TechRocks Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Mexico is voting for a new President in July
(03-18-2018 10:02 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Guys,

You do realize that your policies would

1) Seriously damage the US economy in many ways. It would cause severe economic distress in our border states. And cause far reaching economic problems for areas dependent upon trade and migration from Mexico. Your proposal hurts Texas, economically, and would do so in ways that would be obvious. And tradeoff gains would take time to develop, but the bad consequences would be immediate. Farmers having crops rot in the fields. Factories in the MW shutting down because their input costs go up and they can't compete on exports. And then there's the companies and firms that rely on exports to Mexico.

2) Risk actually destroying the Trump EC coalition by finally getting Mexican Americans to start voting in Texas. And it will cause higher Mexican American voter turnout across the board.

Guys, whites are only 43% of the population in Texas and are only 51% of eligible voters. Trump is not popular with a sizable portion of Anglo Texans. The only reason keeping the Dems from a lock on the Electoral College is low voter participation rates among Mexican American US citizens in Texas.

----

But back to Mexico. There are things that the US cannot compel Mexico to do. And they can hurt us if we make it worth their while to do so.


We'll get over it. We'll be fine.
03-18-2018 10:11 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Mexico is voting for a new President in July
(03-18-2018 10:11 AM)TechRocks Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 10:02 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Guys,

You do realize that your policies would

1) Seriously damage the US economy in many ways. It would cause severe economic distress in our border states. And cause far reaching economic problems for areas dependent upon trade and migration from Mexico. Your proposal hurts Texas, economically, and would do so in ways that would be obvious. And tradeoff gains would take time to develop, but the bad consequences would be immediate. Farmers having crops rot in the fields. Factories in the MW shutting down because their input costs go up and they can't compete on exports. And then there's the companies and firms that rely on exports to Mexico.

2) Risk actually destroying the Trump EC coalition by finally getting Mexican Americans to start voting in Texas. And it will cause higher Mexican American voter turnout across the board.

Guys, whites are only 43% of the population in Texas and are only 51% of eligible voters. Trump is not popular with a sizable portion of Anglo Texans. The only reason keeping the Dems from a lock on the Electoral College is low voter participation rates among Mexican American US citizens in Texas.

----

But back to Mexico. There are things that the US cannot compel Mexico to do. And they can hurt us if we make it worth their while to do so.


We'll get over it. We'll be fine.

Well of course YOU will. Until you wake up one day and realize that Mexican Americans control who wins Arizona and Texas (and with it, every election for President). We shall see.
03-18-2018 10:14 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Mexico is voting for a new President in July
(03-18-2018 10:14 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 10:11 AM)TechRocks Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 10:02 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Guys,

You do realize that your policies would

1) Seriously damage the US economy in many ways. It would cause severe economic distress in our border states. And cause far reaching economic problems for areas dependent upon trade and migration from Mexico. Your proposal hurts Texas, economically, and would do so in ways that would be obvious. And tradeoff gains would take time to develop, but the bad consequences would be immediate. Farmers having crops rot in the fields. Factories in the MW shutting down because their input costs go up and they can't compete on exports. And then there's the companies and firms that rely on exports to Mexico.

2) Risk actually destroying the Trump EC coalition by finally getting Mexican Americans to start voting in Texas. And it will cause higher Mexican American voter turnout across the board.

Guys, whites are only 43% of the population in Texas and are only 51% of eligible voters. Trump is not popular with a sizable portion of Anglo Texans. The only reason keeping the Dems from a lock on the Electoral College is low voter participation rates among Mexican American US citizens in Texas.

----

But back to Mexico. There are things that the US cannot compel Mexico to do. And they can hurt us if we make it worth their while to do so.


We'll get over it. We'll be fine.

Well of course YOU will. Until you wake up one day and realize that Mexican Americans control who wins Arizona and Texas (and with it, every election for President). We shall see.

Mexican interference!!!!
03-18-2018 10:18 AM
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stinkfist Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Mexico is voting for a new President in July
(03-18-2018 10:10 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 10:02 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Guys,

You do realize that your policies would

1) Seriously damage the US economy in many ways. It would cause severe economic distress in our border states. And cause far reaching economic problems for areas dependent upon trade and migration from Mexico. Your proposal hurts Texas, economically, and would do so in ways that would be obvious. And tradeoff gains would take time to develop, but the bad consequences would be immediate. Farmers having crops rot in the fields. Factories in the MW shutting down because their input costs go up and they can't compete on exports. And then there's the companies and firms that rely on exports to Mexico.

2) Risk actually destroying the Trump EC coalition by finally getting Mexican Americans to start voting in Texas. And it will cause higher Mexican American voter turnout across the board.

Guys, whites are only 43% of the population in Texas and are only 51% of eligible voters. Trump is not popular with a sizable portion of Anglo Texans. The only reason keeping the Dems from a lock on the Electoral College is low voter participation rates among Mexican American US citizens in Texas.

----

But back to Mexico. There are things that the US cannot compel Mexico to do. And they can hurt us if we make it worth their while to do so.

You’re the one that said Mexico would dump all the trade deals. That ain’t our policy. Frankly, trump has been 20 moves ahead of the media on these trade issues.

There is absolutely ZERO argument that the current trade deals put the US in a poor position, if you notice, NOT ONE Democrat or news talking head ever segments the current trade deals. All they say is “tariffs are not the answer”.

What’s happening is that tariffs are forcing the other countries to the table to negotiate new trade deals that are more fair to the American worker. That’s what this is all about and it’s EXACTLY what Trump promised in his campaign. Mexico is bass ackwards corrupt nation. Frankly, if they want to shut down trade in response to our wall—so be it. That’s one less big trade deficit to deal with and will save the US billions in free medical and educations costs,

this is the difference between DJT and all the former 'negotiators'.....he has the balls to say it and follow through with the leverage he currently has......and right now, the USD is KING!

ol' tommy simply enjoys the bend-over methodology that only leads to it all come tumbling down.....

one only has to look at previous empires and how they fell due to that ideology....

DJT is no macro side dummy.....it doesn't matter how many times the msm or anyone else spits that shite out of their mouth.....

ol' boy understands the game....
(This post was last modified: 03-18-2018 10:23 AM by stinkfist.)
03-18-2018 10:21 AM
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TechRocks Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Mexico is voting for a new President in July
(03-18-2018 10:14 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 10:11 AM)TechRocks Wrote:  
(03-18-2018 10:02 AM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Guys,

You do realize that your policies would

1) Seriously damage the US economy in many ways. It would cause severe economic distress in our border states. And cause far reaching economic problems for areas dependent upon trade and migration from Mexico. Your proposal hurts Texas, economically, and would do so in ways that would be obvious. And tradeoff gains would take time to develop, but the bad consequences would be immediate. Farmers having crops rot in the fields. Factories in the MW shutting down because their input costs go up and they can't compete on exports. And then there's the companies and firms that rely on exports to Mexico.

2) Risk actually destroying the Trump EC coalition by finally getting Mexican Americans to start voting in Texas. And it will cause higher Mexican American voter turnout across the board.

Guys, whites are only 43% of the population in Texas and are only 51% of eligible voters. Trump is not popular with a sizable portion of Anglo Texans. The only reason keeping the Dems from a lock on the Electoral College is low voter participation rates among Mexican American US citizens in Texas.

----

But back to Mexico. There are things that the US cannot compel Mexico to do. And they can hurt us if we make it worth their while to do so.


We'll get over it. We'll be fine.

Well of course YOU will. Until you wake up one day and realize that Mexican Americans control who wins Arizona and Texas (and with it, every election for President). We shall see.

I'll be dead by then so I don't care. But I'll go to my grave knowing that during his 2 terms, Trump has left the Supreme Court in excellent hands.
03-18-2018 10:23 AM
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hawghiggs Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Mexico is voting for a new President in July
I would absolutely love for Mexico to adopt communism. That would give the U.S a solid reason to liberate the Mexican people from a tyrannical government.
03-18-2018 10:24 AM
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