RE: Could Temple be a top tier AAC team this season?
12/5/19
After playing well but losing their first Orlando Invitational Tournament game to #5 Maryland, Temple won the next two games vs. Texas A&M and Davidson, and is now 6-1.
Temple's rankings at this point have surpassed nearly everyone's expectations, considering the many challenges and concerns that the team faced during the preseason, given Dunn's injury, uncertainties about freshman players, and a limited 10 man active roster until Dunn's return, due to carrying two redshirts.
Due to its successes and strong SOS in its first 7 games, Temple is currently ranked #44 nationally in the Massey Composite and Pugh Rankings Indices, and is ranked #20 in the RPI and #37 in the Sagarin rankings.
Their Massey Composite ranking is the third highest in the AAC, suggesting that Temple may be a potential contender for second or third place in the AAC.
Further confirmation that Temple may be able to be a NCAA contender has been provided by NCAA's Andy Katz, who has listed Temple as a #8 seed (#29) in his current bracketology.
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Temple players:
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Quinton Rose had some spectacular performances during the Orlando Invitational, and was declared the Tournament MVP, and AAC player of the week, suggesting that he may, despite his slow start, be capable of ramping his game up sufficiently to win conference honors this season, consistent with his preseason first-team honors.
--Rose now leads the team in scoring (14.6 ppg), FT% (.781), assists, (3.6 apg) and minutes played (31.9 mpg), and after a 9-rebound tournament game, he is now the team's #4 rebounder (5.4 rbg). He is also #3 in steals (1.6 spg) and has averaged 0.4 bpg. Altogether, his statistical productivity is now 32.1 "+stats" (pts+rb+ast+stl+blk) per 40 minutes of play, or .8025 positive stats per minute played this season, to date.
--Rose's statistical productivity (32.1 positive stats per game is now equal to (first-team AAC) Shizz Alston's average productivity last season).
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NPL went into something of a shooting slump at times during the tournament, but he remains the team's second leading scorer and the team's best rebounder (8.9 rpg) and playmaker (3.6 apg). He leads all guards with a FG2% of .500, but trails in FG3% (.143). In addition Nate also leads the team in steals (1.6 spg) and shares the top shot-blocking position with Dre Perry (0.6 bpg).
--Overall, Nate leads the team with 36.6 positive stats per 40 minutes (0.915 "+ stats" per minute of playing time). This productivity rate, per minute, is a couple of notches ahead of Shizz Alston's last season.
--As one of the team's best defensive players, Nate might be considered the MVP of the team at this point in the season, even after a less than sensational tournament.
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Jake Forrester's ability to contribute play has already had a very positive impact. He has been a vital addition to the team in Damion Moore's absence, due to a recent slump by PF Hamilton, during his 15.7 minutes per game in his first 3 games with the team. He leads the team in FG% (0.583). On a per-minute basis, he is currently one of the more productive players on the team, with 13.6 pts, 11.1 rb, 0.9 ast, and 0.9 blk per 40 minutes with 26.5 "+stats" per 40 minutes of play (0.66 +stats per minute played).
--Forrester's play during the tournament helped the team very considerably to maintain a strong defensive presence in the low post when most needed. He out-played the other two "5-men" (JH & AP).
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Alani Moore had a sensational game vs Maryland, followed by a couple of low-key games in the wins over A&M and Davidson. He is the team's third-leading scorer, and has brought his 3 pt % up to .360. His productivity has fallen off slightly, and he is now in the middle of the pack with 24.4 "+stats" per 40 minutes played (0.61 +stats per minute played).
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Dre Perry has continued to be a key player off the bench, particularly due to his energetic defensive play. He is currently the team's most accurate 3 pt shooter (44.4%), the 4th leading scorer and shares the lead in blocked shots. Like Alani Moore, he has averaged 24.4 "+stats" per 40 minutes played (0.61 +stats per minute played).
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Monty Scott is starting to get back into his scoring groove at this point, , with an improving FG%, and he has now become the team's 6th leading scorer. He's also getting more minutes (19.4 mpg, on average), in part due to JPL's recent injury. His cumulative "+stats" have moved up a couple of notches after a challenging start, and his recent performances have moved his overall productivity up to the point that he's been an important contributor at times in the last three games.
The rest of the players:
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JPL had to miss some playing time during the tournament, due to injury, after averaging 16.6 mpg during the team's first 6 games. Fortunately, Scott was able to step in and fill the gap admirably. JPL's productivity through 6 games - on a per-minute basis - was well above the team's average on a per minute basis (16.6 pts, 2.8 rb, 4.1 ast, & 4.8 stl (total 28.3 "+stats" per 40 minutes played, or .71 + stats per minute played).
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Arashma Parks has surpassed preseason expectations and has had an important impact of his own, in 7.9 mpg thus far. His role on the team is vital due to Damion Moore's absence and Hamilton's playing slump during the Orlando Tournament. He has the second best FG% on the team (0.556). His productivity has been very respectable for a freshman playing the 5 position (23.2 "+stats" per 40 minutes).
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Damion Moore has only played 2 of the team's 7 games. In those 2 games, he was one of the three most productive players on the team on a per-minute basis, although his playing time was restricted. His return would definitely strengthen the team's play at the Center position, which is now being handled by a committee of PFs. Even if he can only play 10 solid mpg going forward, it could be a big help against team's most competitive opponents.
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JP Moorman has had a couple of very good games recently. However, his shooting averages haven't yet approached his FG% last season. On the other hand, his rebounding has improved noticeably, reflecting in part that he has had to play more minutes than expected in the 5 position. He's certainly been working hard, and is #4 on the team in mpg. He is the team's #3 playmaker (2.9 apg). His overall productivity has fallen off slightly from last season, however, with 22 positive stats per 40 minutes played (0.55 "+stats" per 40 minutes). Over the past year and a half, he hasn't yet been able to match his average productivity of ~27 positive stats per 40 minutes that he contributed in his freshman year. If he could start to do so once again, the team could "catch fire."
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Justyn Hamilton has been very inconsistent thus far this season. As a result, he has only played 12.5 mpg, despite the fact that he is the tallest player on the team during Damion Moore's absence. He has, however, been somewhat productive at times, having contributed 20.5 positive stats per 40 minutes, which is about what Alani Moore averaged in his Sophomore and Junior seasons. One of his greatest challenges is to rebound and defend the low post area more effectively. At times, his play has seemed uninspired, suggesting that he may need a morale boost. It would be wonderful if the coaching staff could get him back on track soon.
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Team play overall:
--This year's Owls look like a completely different, more athletic, and much more energetic team, compared to last season. It is like night and day. It is starting to look like a NCAA quality team.
--Coach McKie has done a brilliant job thus far for a first-time Head Coach, and has surpassed all expectations in his first season. He's found a way to get most of his players to give a 100% effort, and has made it possible to play a higher tempo by skillfully playing the deepest possible rotation that he can employ.
--One of the keys to the team's success this year is that, by consistently going with a 9 or 10 man rotation, no player has had to average more than 32 mpg. This has helped to keep the team's starters from overplaying and risking injury; as a result, Temple's starters are more well-rested this season and have fresher legs during crunch time & overtime.
--The team has found a way to win 6 of 7 games despite being somewhat beset by injuries to Dunn, D. Moore, and now JPL. Forrester's activation came at a very crucial time, and his energetic defensive, rebounding, and scoring has inspired many, hopefully including his teammates.
--While Temple remains a very guard-oriented team, the Owls have - remarkably - maintained a 2.6 rebound-per-game surplus, after two prior seasons with hefty rebounding deficits. In addition, the Owls have had a 4 steals per game edge in games 1-7, and are currently #12th in the nation with a helpfully "inverse turnover margin" of -4 turnovers per game. As a result, the Owls have had surplus ball possessions, resulting in 3.57 more FG shooting opportunities and have taken 4 more free throw shots per game.
--Also very helpfully, the Owls are currently 42nd in the nation with respect to the fewest number of personal fouls.
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CONCLUSIONS:
--Temple is winning games with outstanding defense, and is among the nation's top 25 teams in some defensive categories, such as points scored by opponents (59.4 ppg).
--Temple's average scoring margin has thus soared, compared to last season, and is now 9.9 ppg (69.3 to 59.4 ppg). In comparison, Temple maintained only a 3.2 ppg scoring margin (74.7 to 71.5 ppg) in 2018-19.
--However Temple lags in play-making, and is ranked #248 in the nation in assists per game.
--Perhaps as a partial consequence, Temple's FG2% is among the lowest (#324) in the nation, while the Owls are hitting a slightly subpar 31.8% of their three point attempts to date.
---While Temple's guards averaged 53.6 ppg last season, this year's guard unit has only scored an average of 48.1 ppg this season.
---This reduction in back court scoring fully accounts for the decrease in team scoring, from 74.7 ppg last season to 69.3 ppg this season.
--One of Coach McKie's highest priorities at this point will be to improve his team's offensive performance, while making further improvements with the interior defense.
--One of the keys will be to improve most of the players' FG percentages. One hopeful sign is that A. Moore, Scott, (and Moorman's) FG%'s have begun to show signs of improving. Another is that NPL is hitting 50% of his FG2 shots thus far. In addition, Damian Dunn and Damion Moore are capable scorers, and the team's shooting may improve when they rejoin the team.
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2019 06:35 AM by jedclampett.)
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