I'm a bit surprised that no one has opened a thread on this, maybe because not many are discussing West Coast college sports here. However, this has the potential to reverberate across the country, depending on what events follow.

I don't see a lot of scenarios where the PAC 12 falls apart.

The CA schools plus Washington and Oregon would make a good combo for the Big Ten, but the travel would still be horrendous.

Dan Patrick's talk of a merger makes more sense, but it sounds like everyone survives that scenario.

It’s all well and good to say things like this but what does keeping those 3 happy even look like? Where are they going if they are unhappy?

Travel no problem if you go to 20 and pods.

I: Oregon, Washington, USC, UCLA, Arizona
II: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa
III: Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan St
IV: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers

You would need to structure a whole division for the west coast schools to make it viable.

(08-10-2021 08:54 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  Travel no problem if you go to 20 and pods.

I: Oregon, Washington, USC, UCLA, Arizona
II: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa
III: Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan St
IV: Michigan, Ohio State, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers

You would need to structure a whole division for the west coast schools to make it viable.

How do you figure that having only four games in the west alleviates all travel problems? That's only away conference football games a year, and 4 basketball games. To get to "no problem" you would need IMO at least 8 PAC teams. It's hard to see that working.

Ten PAC teams would bring the B1G to 24, allowing for either three eight team divisions or four six team divisions. But that many PAC teams would significantly reduce the media payouts for existing B1G schools.

As far as travel goes, let's not forget that going from one end of the PAC 12 to another isn't exactly a short trip. It's shorter than traveling to the Midwest or the East Coast, but even a pod wouldn't make for many reasonable trips in one season.

PAC? Not worth the effort.

(08-11-2021 07:16 AM)XLance Wrote:  PAC? Not worth the effort.

Certain deals are definitely worth the effort. The top football brands in the PAC want to enjoy the money gravy train that will occur in the next 15 years. ESPN would unwind some of the errors the ACC made in its long term media contract. The ACC is merely a fall-back option (the BIG is preferred).

The top of the PAC (USC, UCLA, UW, Stanford, Cal and Oregon) is very valuable.

(08-10-2021 09:44 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  As far as travel goes, let's not forget that going from one end of the PAC 12 to another isn't exactly a short trip. It's shorter than traveling to the Midwest or the East Coast, but even a pod wouldn't make for many reasonable trips in one season.

From Washington to USC is more than 1100 miles. That's only 500 miles less than the distance to Lincoln, NE.

(08-11-2021 11:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-10-2021 09:44 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  As far as travel goes, let's not forget that going from one end of the PAC 12 to another isn't exactly a short trip. It's shorter than traveling to the Midwest or the East Coast, but even a pod wouldn't make for many reasonable trips in one season.

From Washington to USC is more than 1100 miles. That's only 500 miles less than the distance to Lincoln, NE.

But the Southern California recruiting grounds, Southern California-based alumni and Southern California markets are much richer prospects in general for Washington than Nebraska, so it is harder to justify the same distance to be in the same conference.

(08-11-2021 08:43 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-11-2021 11:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-10-2021 09:44 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  As far as travel goes, let's not forget that going from one end of the PAC 12 to another isn't exactly a short trip. It's shorter than traveling to the Midwest or the East Coast, but even a pod wouldn't make for many reasonable trips in one season.

From Washington to USC is more than 1100 miles. That's only 500 miles less than the distance to Lincoln, NE.

But the Southern California recruiting grounds, Southern California-based alumni and Southern California markets are much richer prospects in general for Washington than Nebraska, so it is harder to justify the same distance to be in the same conference.

Honestly there wouldn't be a need to justify long distance conference road trips because they would become inevitable the moment the B1G announced they had issued invitations to the California schools. Either you join them (if you are one of the lucky ones) and you start playing games in Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin or you get left behind and you start playing games in Texas, Oklahoma & Kansas.

(08-12-2021 01:02 AM)clpp01 Wrote:  

(08-11-2021 08:43 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-11-2021 11:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-10-2021 09:44 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  As far as travel goes, let's not forget that going from one end of the PAC 12 to another isn't exactly a short trip. It's shorter than traveling to the Midwest or the East Coast, but even a pod wouldn't make for many reasonable trips in one season.

From Washington to USC is more than 1100 miles. That's only 500 miles less than the distance to Lincoln, NE.

But the Southern California recruiting grounds, Southern California-based alumni and Southern California markets are much richer prospects in general for Washington than Nebraska, so it is harder to justify the same distance to be in the same conference.

Honestly there wouldn't be a need to justify long distance conference road trips because they would become inevitable the moment the B1G announced they had issued invitations to the California schools. Either you join them (if you are one of the lucky ones) and you start playing games in Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin or you get left behind and you start playing games in Texas, Oklahoma & Kansas.

That, of course, hinges on USC deciding it wants to go. The argument that they are likely to decide to go some day doesn't establish how soon the multiple downsides are overcome by the single upside.

The real question is how well can your brand travel. I'm not talking about fans traveling to games, but "brand".
Ultimately Texas and Oklahoma decided.....not very far.
Once the novelty wears off, just how well is your brand accepted where your are trying to play?
I'll give a Notre Dame example (it didn't take too long for the bloom to fall off of that Rose).
The first time through the conference the stadiums were packed. In Chapel Hill, season ticket holders were not allowed to buy extra single game tickets for the Notre Dame game (they were reserved for the expected Notre Dame fans (mostly locals) who did attend). The place was packed.
The second time through at Carolina and at Wake Forest, those tickets suddenly became available a week or two before the Notre Dame Game and at both venues there were noticeable numbers of empty seats.
Perhaps the Notre Dame brand doesn't travel as well in the South as expected.
This is a lesson for Southern Cal. How far can that brand really travel away from the pacific coast and continue to be successful and exist not just as a novelty?
It was not a risk that Texas and Oklahoma were not willing to take

(08-13-2021 05:15 AM)XLance Wrote:  The real question is how well can your brand travel. I'm not talking about fans traveling to games, but "brand".
Ultimately Texas and Oklahoma decided.....not very far.
Once the novelty wears off, just how well is your brand accepted where your are trying to play?
I'll give a Notre Dame example (it didn't take too long for the bloom to fall off of that Rose).
The first time through the conference the stadiums were packed. In Chapel Hill, season ticket holders were not allowed to be extra single game tickets for the Notre Dame game (they were reserved for the expected Notre Dame fans (mostly locals) who did attend). The place was packed.
The second time through at Carolina and at Wake Forest, those tickets suddenly became available a week or two before the Notre Dame Game and at both venues there were noticeable numbers of empty seats.
Perhaps the Notre Dame brand doesn't travel as well in the South as expected.
This is a lesson for Southern Cal. How far can that brand really travel away from the pacific coast and continue to be successful and exist not just as a novelty?
It was not a risk that Texas and Oklahoma were not willing to take

First I want to say that Wilner is one of the few sports journalists worth reading. He tells me the 3 things I want to hear:
What he knows
What he doesn't know
What he thinks

And he is usually accurate.

Now as to your post X.

Texas and Oklahoma are football schools joining a football conference. "People will come Ray, people will come."

Notre Dame visiting Chapel Hill and Winston-Salem is a football school in alien corn. Football is not the sport of charm at those 2 venues. Tallahassee and Blacksburg and Clemson would be much better indicators.

(08-13-2021 12:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 05:15 AM)XLance Wrote:  The real question is how well can your brand travel. I'm not talking about fans traveling to games, but "brand".
Ultimately Texas and Oklahoma decided.....not very far.
Once the novelty wears off, just how well is your brand accepted where your are trying to play?
I'll give a Notre Dame example (it didn't take too long for the bloom to fall off of that Rose).
The first time through the conference the stadiums were packed. In Chapel Hill, season ticket holders were not allowed to be extra single game tickets for the Notre Dame game (they were reserved for the expected Notre Dame fans (mostly locals) who did attend). The place was packed.
The second time through at Carolina and at Wake Forest, those tickets suddenly became available a week or two before the Notre Dame Game and at both venues there were noticeable numbers of empty seats.
Perhaps the Notre Dame brand doesn't travel as well in the South as expected.
This is a lesson for Southern Cal. How far can that brand really travel away from the pacific coast and continue to be successful and exist not just as a novelty?
It was not a risk that Texas and Oklahoma were not willing to take

First I want to say that Wilner is one of the few sports journalists worth reading. He tells me the 3 things I want to hear:
What he knows
What he doesn't know
What he thinks

And he is usually accurate.

Now as to your post X.

Texas and Oklahoma are football schools joining a football conference. "People will come Ray, people will come."

Notre Dame visiting Chapel Hill and Winston-Salem is a football school in alien corn. Football is not the sport of charm at those 2 venues. Tallahassee and Blacksburg and Clemson would be much better indicators.

I still don't think that USC risks moving away from their base.....too much risk.

(08-13-2021 01:49 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 12:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 05:15 AM)XLance Wrote:  The real question is how well can your brand travel. I'm not talking about fans traveling to games, but "brand".
Ultimately Texas and Oklahoma decided.....not very far.
Once the novelty wears off, just how well is your brand accepted where your are trying to play?
I'll give a Notre Dame example (it didn't take too long for the bloom to fall off of that Rose).
The first time through the conference the stadiums were packed. In Chapel Hill, season ticket holders were not allowed to be extra single game tickets for the Notre Dame game (they were reserved for the expected Notre Dame fans (mostly locals) who did attend). The place was packed.
The second time through at Carolina and at Wake Forest, those tickets suddenly became available a week or two before the Notre Dame Game and at both venues there were noticeable numbers of empty seats.
Perhaps the Notre Dame brand doesn't travel as well in the South as expected.
This is a lesson for Southern Cal. How far can that brand really travel away from the pacific coast and continue to be successful and exist not just as a novelty?
It was not a risk that Texas and Oklahoma were not willing to take

First I want to say that Wilner is one of the few sports journalists worth reading. He tells me the 3 things I want to hear:
What he knows
What he doesn't know
What he thinks

And he is usually accurate.

Now as to your post X.

Texas and Oklahoma are football schools joining a football conference. "People will come Ray, people will come."

Notre Dame visiting Chapel Hill and Winston-Salem is a football school in alien corn. Football is not the sport of charm at those 2 venues. Tallahassee and Blacksburg and Clemson would be much better indicators.

I still don't think that USC risks moving away from their base.....too much risk.

I don't anticipate any movement away from the PAC unless we have a breakaway upper tier and some remain loyal to the NCAA.

All that is left in this round of realignment moves would be this:
1. B1G ascertains Notre Dame's present interest in moving and finds there is none and they stand pat.
2. The ACC picks up a couple of B12 schools for ACCN market numbers and to re-open their contracts valuation.
3. The PAC 12 picks up a couple, maybe 4, B12 schools for PACN market numbers and new time slots and do so for no other reason than revenue because they can't afford to fall behind the ACC and must keep pace.
4. OU and UT integrate into the SEC.

We wait for time, economic disparity, and pressure to continue to heighten schools' awareness of their need to seek more capital. It consolidates further or into an ACC/SEC breakaway from the NCAA.

(08-13-2021 02:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  3. The PAC 12 picks up a couple, maybe 4, B12 schools for PACN market numbers and new time slots and do so for no other reason than revenue because they can't afford to fall behind the ACC and must keep pace. ...

It seems like if the PAC-12 goes to "11 major conference school" scheduling to boost the value of their rights, they can get new time slots a lot more cheaply by doing a scheduling and rights agreement with a twelve member Big12 for a game a year per school with crossover rights by the visiting team, giving the PAC-12 six annual ETZ noon slots ... especially in September / October, when Fox may have MLB evening game responsibilities.

(08-14-2021 08:52 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 02:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  3. The PAC 12 picks up a couple, maybe 4, B12 schools for PACN market numbers and new time slots and do so for no other reason than revenue because they can't afford to fall behind the ACC and must keep pace. ...

It seems like if the PAC-12 goes to "11 major conference school" scheduling to boost the value of their rights, they can get new time slots a lot more cheaply by doing a scheduling and rights agreement with a twelve member Big12 for a game a year per school with crossover rights by the visiting team, giving the PAC-12 six annual ETZ noon slots ... especially in September / October, when Fox may have MLB evening game responsibilities.

I do not foresee USC and Stanford dropping the Notre Dame game for this purpose.

(08-13-2021 02:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 01:49 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 12:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 05:15 AM)XLance Wrote:  The real question is how well can your brand travel. I'm not talking about fans traveling to games, but "brand".
Ultimately Texas and Oklahoma decided.....not very far.
Once the novelty wears off, just how well is your brand accepted where your are trying to play?
I'll give a Notre Dame example (it didn't take too long for the bloom to fall off of that Rose).
The first time through the conference the stadiums were packed. In Chapel Hill, season ticket holders were not allowed to be extra single game tickets for the Notre Dame game (they were reserved for the expected Notre Dame fans (mostly locals) who did attend). The place was packed.
The second time through at Carolina and at Wake Forest, those tickets suddenly became available a week or two before the Notre Dame Game and at both venues there were noticeable numbers of empty seats.
Perhaps the Notre Dame brand doesn't travel as well in the South as expected.
This is a lesson for Southern Cal. How far can that brand really travel away from the pacific coast and continue to be successful and exist not just as a novelty?
It was not a risk that Texas and Oklahoma were not willing to take

First I want to say that Wilner is one of the few sports journalists worth reading. He tells me the 3 things I want to hear:
What he knows
What he doesn't know
What he thinks

And he is usually accurate.

Now as to your post X.

Texas and Oklahoma are football schools joining a football conference. "People will come Ray, people will come."

Notre Dame visiting Chapel Hill and Winston-Salem is a football school in alien corn. Football is not the sport of charm at those 2 venues. Tallahassee and Blacksburg and Clemson would be much better indicators.

I still don't think that USC risks moving away from their base.....too much risk.

I don't anticipate any movement away from the PAC unless we have a breakaway upper tier and some remain loyal to the NCAA.

All that is left in this round of realignment moves would be this:
1. B1G ascertains Notre Dame's present interest in moving and finds there is none and they stand pat.
2. The ACC picks up a couple of B12 schools for ACCN market numbers and to re-open their contracts valuation.
3. The PAC 12 picks up a couple, maybe 4, B12 schools for PACN market numbers and new time slots and do so for no other reason than revenue because they can't afford to fall behind the ACC and must keep pace.
4. OU and UT integrate into the SEC.

We wait for time, economic disparity, and pressure to continue to heighten schools' awareness of their need to seek more capital. It consolidates further or into an ACC/SEC breakaway from the NCAA.

Could you see just those two breaking away, or would they just be leading the way for the B1G and PAC to follow? Good as their teams are, it's hard to style your champ as the National Champ when you exclude half the country.

(08-15-2021 12:31 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 02:01 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 01:49 PM)XLance Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 12:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-13-2021 05:15 AM)XLance Wrote:  The real question is how well can your brand travel. I'm not talking about fans traveling to games, but "brand".
Ultimately Texas and Oklahoma decided.....not very far.
Once the novelty wears off, just how well is your brand accepted where your are trying to play?
I'll give a Notre Dame example (it didn't take too long for the bloom to fall off of that Rose).
The first time through the conference the stadiums were packed. In Chapel Hill, season ticket holders were not allowed to be extra single game tickets for the Notre Dame game (they were reserved for the expected Notre Dame fans (mostly locals) who did attend). The place was packed.
The second time through at Carolina and at Wake Forest, those tickets suddenly became available a week or two before the Notre Dame Game and at both venues there were noticeable numbers of empty seats.
Perhaps the Notre Dame brand doesn't travel as well in the South as expected.
This is a lesson for Southern Cal. How far can that brand really travel away from the pacific coast and continue to be successful and exist not just as a novelty?
It was not a risk that Texas and Oklahoma were not willing to take

First I want to say that Wilner is one of the few sports journalists worth reading. He tells me the 3 things I want to hear:
What he knows
What he doesn't know
What he thinks

And he is usually accurate.

Now as to your post X.

Texas and Oklahoma are football schools joining a football conference. "People will come Ray, people will come."

Notre Dame visiting Chapel Hill and Winston-Salem is a football school in alien corn. Football is not the sport of charm at those 2 venues. Tallahassee and Blacksburg and Clemson would be much better indicators.

I still don't think that USC risks moving away from their base.....too much risk.

I don't anticipate any movement away from the PAC unless we have a breakaway upper tier and some remain loyal to the NCAA.

All that is left in this round of realignment moves would be this:
1. B1G ascertains Notre Dame's present interest in moving and finds there is none and they stand pat.
2. The ACC picks up a couple of B12 schools for ACCN market numbers and to re-open their contracts valuation.
3. The PAC 12 picks up a couple, maybe 4, B12 schools for PACN market numbers and new time slots and do so for no other reason than revenue because they can't afford to fall behind the ACC and must keep pace.
4. OU and UT integrate into the SEC.

We wait for time, economic disparity, and pressure to continue to heighten schools' awareness of their need to seek more capital. It consolidates further or into an ACC/SEC breakaway from the NCAA.

Could you see just those two breaking away, or would they just be leading the way for the B1G and PAC to follow? Good as their teams are, it's hard to style your champ as the National Champ when you exclude half the country.

We are headed for 2 separate and distinct pathways from NIL and stipend rulings, IMO. One makes the other possible. The semi-professional league must first come into existence as it will provide the option by complying with the SCOTUS ruling on NIL, will by its nature be other in governance from the NCAA, and will lineup with the likeliest ruling on stipends being uncapped, which would be wholly in keeping with the Court's reasoning in the ruling on NIL.

In the wake of this "breakaway" which will likely take top brands from each of the remaining conferences, a new league will be formed, which will actually be an embracing and reaffirmation of the NCAA's notion on amateurism. It will be able to exist w/o conflict from the SCOTUS ruling precisely because a compliant league was formed giving athletes a choice.

The SEC, and I should say, and part of the ACC will form the nucleus of the semi-professional league. Given the NRLB's ability to organize private schools, most small privates and academically focused state schools will likely choose an amateur league. Some ACC / B1G and PAC schools will likely form the nucleus of this league.

So if the SEC plus Clemson, FSU, Virginia Tech, Louisville, and possibly N.C. State (if you have the desire and clearance from your state) could join with Nebraska, Iowa, Penn State, Ohio State and possibly Indiana along with Notre Dame, B.Y.U., USC, Arizona State and possibly Washington and Oregon to form a new semi-professional league. It would work well at 24, but would be more balanced at 32.

You would have 2 legitimate national champions each year and each in a different classification.