I’d have to think Navy could cobble together a better schedule as an independent than sticking with annual games with Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, USF, SMU, ECU and Temple. And if the American loses UCF, Houston, Cincinnati and Navy, do the remaining 7 schools only take 3 replacements to get back to 10, or do they add 5 to get back to 12? If it’s just 3, I’m thinking 2 of 3 would probably be Old Dominion, UAB and then maybe Marshall, for tradition, or Georgia State, to get into Atlanta? If it’s 5, I’d 3 of the preceding 4, as well as Louisiana and App. State, even if they don’t add new states or eyeballs to the footprint and aren’t great at hoops, purely on football strength.

I hope not. It should make Army want to jump in, they got to feel they can compete w/ this version of the AAC

No. AAC invites AF, Army as football only, UAB and ODU as all sports members. VCU and Dayton added as basketball only. Done.

(09-02-2021 04:11 PM)Owls9878 Wrote:  No. AAC invites AF, Army as football only, UAB and ODU as all sports members. VCU and Dayton added as basketball only. Done.

That is quite a lot for two openings to declare openings as "done" lol.

(09-02-2021 04:08 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  I’d have to think Navy could cobble together a better schedule as an independent than sticking with annual games with Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, USF, SMU, ECU and Temple.

Navy I thought preferred a weaker G5 as opposed to a stronger one.

They are staying on board.

If the AAC does not expand with Rice, then I think I think Navy is gone. If the AAC expands with Rice then I give it 50/50. The competition of the AAC will drop and so eventually will the bowl tie-ins.

(09-02-2021 04:08 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  I’d have to think Navy could cobble together a better schedule as an independent than sticking with annual games with Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, USF, SMU, ECU and Temple. And if the American loses UCF, Houston, Cincinnati and Navy, do the remaining 7 schools only take 3 replacements to get back to 10, or do they add 5 to get back to 12? If it’s just 3, I’m thinking 2 of 3 would probably be Old Dominion, UAB and then maybe Marshall, for tradition, or Georgia State, to get into Atlanta? If it’s 5, I’d 3 of the preceding 4, as well as Louisiana and App. State, even if they don’t add new states or eyeballs to the footprint and aren’t great at hoops, purely on football strength.

I posted this in another thread last night.

(09-01-2021 11:48 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Some thoughts on Navy going independent.
The original poster had it as a question; it seems like every subsequent poster took Navy independence as an assumption - that assumption is flawed.

Navy absolutely COULD go independent.
Navy didn't sign up for the Big East in 2012 because of a lack of success as an independent. In some ways, the environment today is better for an independent than it was a decade ago.

So Navy could go independent IF the AAC got TOTALLY blown up. Honestly, I don't know that losing 4 teams would hit that threshhold. 5 or 6 teams leaving, sure, but if there is a core or 7 AAC teams to whom we've committed for a decade, that might be enough to stick with.
Navy would definitely NOT be interested in a smaller, regionalized conference. The expanded coast to coast Big East (SDSU, Boise, TCU) that we signed on to in 2012 fit our national program and our national stature - going smaller and regional is counter to Navy's interests. A rebuilt AAC that still had a broader footprint would still be in Navy's interests.

Timelines factor in. I'm impressed with what UConn AD Benedict did to build schedules on SHORT timelines. But if things move fast, like less than five years lead time, it's a lot harder to get teams to schedule Navy than to schedule a UConn automatic win.

Bowl tie-ins factor in. In the AAC, Navy has gotten bowl bids and wins against three contract-bowl-conference teams; Army's independent outlook is Independence Bowl or "pool"...I prefer our AAC options.

But the biggest point comes down to "know your why" When Navy joined the BigEast, we had bowls arranged five years out but the next bowl arrangements were a big question; scheduling was getting harder. But the strategic reason Navy is in the AAC today was to be in the right place to remain relevant at the highest level of college football. We signed on to a BCS-auto-qual conference. That rug got pulled out and Navy has been all-in on the AAC P6. That effort looked great when a 6+6 playoff seemed imminent.

There are several worst-case scenarios for the AAC as a conference. But staying in a "weak 6th" AAC -- rather than the P6 AAC we helped build -- may still be better than being the best of an increasingly irrelevant group of independents.

Don't assume that Navy will go independent instead of remaining with the #6 conference.

With the 12 team playoff it is most sensible to move Army Navy to rivalry weekend in a stand alone slot, maybe BlackFriday or noon Saturday.

(09-02-2021 04:17 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 04:08 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  I’d have to think Navy could cobble together a better schedule as an independent than sticking with annual games with Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, USF, SMU, ECU and Temple.

Navy I thought preferred a weaker G5 as opposed to a stronger one.

They are staying on board.

You thought wrong.
Not that Navy might stay, but that the reasoning would be "Yay, less challenging!"

In January 2012, Navy signed on to BCS-Auto-qual conference Big East. Many were wringing their hands, but Navy wasn't going to not make the right move because it might be hard.

Navy's move was based on relevance - staying at the top level of the college football world.

So, today, independence likely wouldn't move us toward that strategic goal. If the playoff expands to twelve teams, independent Navy would be hard pressed to be #12 and an at-large, so would be doomed to irrelevance. But AAC Navy has been in the CPF NY6 conversation Thanksgiving weekend or later three out of six years - if the expanded playoff is still 6+6 AAC, even if it is "weak #6" instead of P6, is better for the strategic goals.

(09-02-2021 04:25 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  With the 12 team playoff it is most sensible to move Army Navy to rivalry weekend in a stand alone slot, maybe BlackFriday or noon Saturday.

It is most sensible to keep Army Navy just as it is, getting eight million viewers on a stand alone weekend then starting the playoff. It is also most sensible to never bring Army into our conference.
Thanks for coming to my TED talk

Are you guys sure that AAC will do the minimum and only go to 10 fb/bb schools? Most of you were only thinking 2 w/ the B12 and it's likely gonna be 4. Also what if Army is one of the 10 schools, who's coming for all sports to counter that? You sure VCU would come? Seems like strength in numbers. I think the MWC will try to get SMU maybe Tulsa. UAB, Rice, Marshall, Army(fb) 12 fb, 11 bb. I don't think VCU or Dayton would leave the A-10 for this.

If the AAC Big 3 are gone and the MWC is untouched, the MWC will be the 6th ranked conference most years.

(09-02-2021 04:11 PM)Owls9878 Wrote:  No. AAC invites AF, Army as football only, UAB and ODU as all sports members. VCU and Dayton added as basketball only. Done.

Army had a bad experience in CUSA. It is happy as an independent and already has a bowl-tie in of its own.

https://goarmywestpoint.com/news/2019/10...cycle.aspx

(09-02-2021 04:28 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 04:17 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(09-02-2021 04:08 PM)CarlSmithCenter Wrote:  I’d have to think Navy could cobble together a better schedule as an independent than sticking with annual games with Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, USF, SMU, ECU and Temple.

Navy I thought preferred a weaker G5 as opposed to a stronger one.

They are staying on board.

You thought wrong.
Not that Navy might stay, but that the reasoning would be "Yay, less challenging!"

In January 2012, Navy signed on to BCS-Auto-qual conference Big East. Many were wringing their hands, but Navy wasn't going to not make the right move because it might be hard.

Navy's move was based on relevance - staying at the top level of the college football world.

So, today, independence likely wouldn't move us toward that strategic goal. If the playoff expands to twelve teams, independent Navy would be hard pressed to be #12 and an at-large, so would be doomed to irrelevance. But AAC Navy has been in the CPF NY6 conversation Thanksgiving weekend or later three out of six years - if the expanded playoff is still 6+6 AAC, even if it is "weak #6" instead of P6, is better for the strategic goals.

Are we sure the AAC would be better than the MWC if Houston, UCF and Cincinnati bolt?

It’s a tough call.

Navy would have no problem scheduling as an Indy and could earn more money. They could also play a truly national schedule that includes the West Coast, somewhere they can’t really play in the regular season.

Navy has zero shot at the expanded CFP but only a tenuous one if they win the AAC. In terms of overall quality, the AAC will be fighting the MWC for 6th best. But an undefeated C-USA, MAC, or SBC could hop them both under the right conditions.

Overall, I think Navy likes the combination of schools they play in the AAC but they certainly don’t NEED the AAC.

(09-02-2021 04:36 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  Are you guys sure that AAC will do the minimum and only go to 10 fb/bb schools? Most of you were only thinking 2 w/ the B12 and it's likely gonna be 4. Also what if Army is one of the 10 schools, who's coming for all sports to counter that? You sure VCU would come? Seems like strength in numbers. I think the MWC will try to get SMU maybe Tulsa. UAB, Rice, Marshall, Army(fb) 12 fb, 11 bb. I don't think VCU or Dayton would leave the A-10 for this.

I've been saying it pretty much in all the threads mentioning using A10 schools to backfill basketball:

The only A10 that would join this drastically weakened basketball conference (minus UCONN, Houston, and Cinci) would be UMass as an all sports invite.

(09-02-2021 04:36 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  Are you guys sure that AAC will do the minimum and only go to 10 fb/bb schools? Most of you were only thinking 2 w/ the B12 and it's likely gonna be 4. Also what if Army is one of the 10 schools, who's coming for all sports to counter that? You sure VCU would come? Seems like strength in numbers. I think the MWC will try to get SMU maybe Tulsa. UAB, Rice, Marshall, Army(fb) 12 fb, 11 bb. I don't think VCU or Dayton would leave the A-10 for this.

I'm not 100% sure. The XII invites aren't even a done deal yet so we won't hear any direction from the AAC until they are.

10 would keep the per school value higher. Its going to be a wide geography even at 12 or 14 members.