(09-27-2021 08:45 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(09-27-2021 05:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-27-2021 04:47 PM)LeeNobody Wrote:  I believe the ACC is in the last decade of being a "power conference". There is simply no way to to makeup the revenue gap and keep the conference together. With broadcast rights completely in ESPN's control and no incentive for them to increase payouts, the ACC is a deadman walking. The ACC has no way to leverage ND into the conference, and if the playoff expands per the 12 team plan, Notre Dame's independence is ensured in perpetuity. Once the grant of rights is within a reasonable exit value, schools will announce there intentions to leave on backroom deals. How do you think the ACC power status ends?

Here is what i think is probable:
2029
The SEC with the most power in situation is the first mover. Wanting to increase distrubuion and setup future northern additions, the SEC offers membership to NCST, VT. These to are selected as the demands of UNC for UVA and duke were deemed untenable. They also invite as FSU and Clemson to increase the ad rates the SEC can charge in Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

The B1G is no longer able to sit on the sidelines. They respond with an invite of UVA, UNC, GT, and Miami. They extend full membership to Notre Dame in the chaos with the promise of one tag along. I think ND would request Pitt as Navy would not join the B1G.

The B12 would smell blood in the water and invite L'ville to enchance the Big east wing, perhaps pairing this addition with USF or Memphis

The ACC down to Duke, Wake, BC, and Cuse would add back academically minded basketball schools. Some combination of uconn, umass, buffalo, temple, tulane, rice. Creating a modern magnolia league. Viewed as a peer to the ivy league, it may drop down to fcs.

Thoughts?

Most of your analysis is accurate. But, the SEC won't make the first move. So if the Big 10 moves to 16 out of the remnants of the B12/PAC/or should ND simply decide to cash a big check, the SEC likely does nothing. We did our thing with OU and UT and if the B1G lands Colorado or Kansas and Notre Dame then bully for them.

If the B1G moves on UNC and UVa the SEC will move as well in part to protect Deep South brands and to counter the B1G with a presence in both Virginia and North Carolina. I should think ESPN would be active behind the scenes to keep 100% of the rights they want and based on market penetration their ideal product to the SEC would be UNC, VaTech, FSU, and Clemson as things stand now.

However if you really look at the numbers. That's 3 of the top 4 ACC earners and the top brand in North Carolina. Duke, Virginia, Ga Tech and Notre Dame would be schools ESPN would let go of I think. Duke draws very well in NYC. Virginia gives the B1G 10 what they want in the Beltway where they are alumni strong, Atlanta has quite a few of the B1G diaspora as well. And face it Notre Dame is the rug that really ties the room together for the Dude of Chi-town. Advertising, branding, history, and revenue.

But who goes where is secondary to who moves first. ESPN and the SEC want to be seen as being protective of solid ACC brands and not predatory. The B1G will have to be the aggressor again and if they are they will be successful for the most part. $40 million more in just media revenue is security in uncertain times.

To throw a log on the fire the rumor out of B'ham is that backchannel conversations have happened with an old core ACC school and a football first ACC school and may have started 3 days after the OU / UT announcement.

And to toss a wrinkle into the discussion if UVa, UNC, and Duke all wanted to move as a group to the SEC that just might happen as ESPN is enamored of that winter rights coverage.

Ask yourselves this, if you lost Duke, UNC, and UVa you lose 3 schools which are middle of the pack in revenue. If ND joined the new ACC in full and Clemson and FSU remained and you could add WVU and swipe Cincy before the B12 gets them in, what kind of value do you think the new ACC would bring? If N.D. was a full member now they would be the most valuable ACC product and worth 27.7% of the conferences value. Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia together are a little more than 15% of the ACC total value. You could lose those 3 academic bell cows and gain revenue. That's something to think about.

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

That's an appealing set of regional divisions. And it would likely function much more democratically.

It’s hard to fathom UNC/Duke/UVa being first movers. They built the ACC, they’ll wait to see what FSU/ND/Clemson decide before making their move. If the SEC and ESPN resist from being predators, then the ACC could survive. IMO, the biggest wildcard is FSU…higher media payouts may be more important than an easier path to the playoffs.

And yet the only ones rumored to be nosing around back channels to figure out their best value is one of the unholy 3 and an ACC football first school. A solid rumor source at that. Hmm? What's coming has conference top brands reaching out first this time. Texas and Oklahoma called the SEC. No different here.

I don't think anyone wants to grow more now until they know the final tally on what being fully compliant with new player's rights laws are going to cost them. If we have a breakaway of schools involved fully it may give cover for those wanting amateurism because all players would have a choice. I seriously doubt that all P5's leap at pay for play and until a breakaway happens we won't know the composition of any conference.

It's a pretty safe bet that at least 15 SEC schools (counting UT and OU) will make the jump and all 16 is not out of the question though I have my doubts about Vanderbilt. Privates will be subject to players unions where state schools will not. Chester can fill in the details there. So nobody knows where the pieces fall yet.

Once that starts to clear the landscape will likely be a lot more altered than many believe. We may have a tier of state schools dedicated to uncapped benefits, another taking some kind of amateur based tier, and you might wind up with privates forming associations with pay and unions, or go Ivy model amateur only.

When the legalities are firmly known the separation process will start. It will likely divide some conferences. We'll see soon enough.

(09-27-2021 08:45 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(09-27-2021 05:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-27-2021 04:47 PM)LeeNobody Wrote:  I believe the ACC is in the last decade of being a "power conference". There is simply no way to to makeup the revenue gap and keep the conference together. With broadcast rights completely in ESPN's control and no incentive for them to increase payouts, the ACC is a deadman walking. The ACC has no way to leverage ND into the conference, and if the playoff expands per the 12 team plan, Notre Dame's independence is ensured in perpetuity. Once the grant of rights is within a reasonable exit value, schools will announce there intentions to leave on backroom deals. How do you think the ACC power status ends?

Here is what i think is probable:
2029
The SEC with the most power in situation is the first mover. Wanting to increase distrubuion and setup future northern additions, the SEC offers membership to NCST, VT. These to are selected as the demands of UNC for UVA and duke were deemed untenable. They also invite as FSU and Clemson to increase the ad rates the SEC can charge in Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

The B1G is no longer able to sit on the sidelines. They respond with an invite of UVA, UNC, GT, and Miami. They extend full membership to Notre Dame in the chaos with the promise of one tag along. I think ND would request Pitt as Navy would not join the B1G.

The B12 would smell blood in the water and invite L'ville to enchance the Big east wing, perhaps pairing this addition with USF or Memphis

The ACC down to Duke, Wake, BC, and Cuse would add back academically minded basketball schools. Some combination of uconn, umass, buffalo, temple, tulane, rice. Creating a modern magnolia league. Viewed as a peer to the ivy league, it may drop down to fcs.

Thoughts?

Most of your analysis is accurate. But, the SEC won't make the first move. So if the Big 10 moves to 16 out of the remnants of the B12/PAC/or should ND simply decide to cash a big check, the SEC likely does nothing. We did our thing with OU and UT and if the B1G lands Colorado or Kansas and Notre Dame then bully for them.

If the B1G moves on UNC and UVa the SEC will move as well in part to protect Deep South brands and to counter the B1G with a presence in both Virginia and North Carolina. I should think ESPN would be active behind the scenes to keep 100% of the rights they want and based on market penetration their ideal product to the SEC would be UNC, VaTech, FSU, and Clemson as things stand now.

However if you really look at the numbers. That's 3 of the top 4 ACC earners and the top brand in North Carolina. Duke, Virginia, Ga Tech and Notre Dame would be schools ESPN would let go of I think. Duke draws very well in NYC. Virginia gives the B1G 10 what they want in the Beltway where they are alumni strong, Atlanta has quite a few of the B1G diaspora as well. And face it Notre Dame is the rug that really ties the room together for the Dude of Chi-town. Advertising, branding, history, and revenue.

But who goes where is secondary to who moves first. ESPN and the SEC want to be seen as being protective of solid ACC brands and not predatory. The B1G will have to be the aggressor again and if they are they will be successful for the most part. $40 million more in just media revenue is security in uncertain times.

To throw a log on the fire the rumor out of B'ham is that backchannel conversations have happened with an old core ACC school and a football first ACC school and may have started 3 days after the OU / UT announcement.

And to toss a wrinkle into the discussion if UVa, UNC, and Duke all wanted to move as a group to the SEC that just might happen as ESPN is enamored of that winter rights coverage.

Ask yourselves this, if you lost Duke, UNC, and UVa you lose 3 schools which are middle of the pack in revenue. If ND joined the new ACC in full and Clemson and FSU remained and you could add WVU and swipe Cincy before the B12 gets them in, what kind of value do you think the new ACC would bring? If N.D. was a full member now they would be the most valuable ACC product and worth 27.7% of the conferences value. Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia together are a little more than 15% of the ACC total value. You could lose those 3 academic bell cows and gain revenue. That's something to think about.

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

That's an appealing set of regional divisions. And it would likely function much more democratically.

It’s hard to fathom UNC/Duke/UVa being first movers. They built the ACC, they’ll wait to see what FSU/ND/Clemson decide before making their move. If the SEC and ESPN resist from being predators, then the ACC could survive. IMO, the biggest wildcard is FSU…higher media payouts may be more important than an easier path to the playoffs.

No, THEY did not build the ACC. They took over the ACC, but they did not build it. Maryland, Clemson, and Duke formed the ACC out of the Southern Conference. They did not gain full control until Bob James died.

With thunderous applause

What are the factors to who will be the first mover in the death of the ACC? Are they predictable? Many correctly identified the non interest in early tv rights renewal for the B12 as a sign of reallignment being immenent. What would be a similar sign for the ACC?

Contract length of the B1G?

Playoff expansion failure?

I don't think the ACC dies, at least not any time soon (in the LONG run all these conferences are dead, as are we, LOL).

IMO, the Big 12 losing TX and OU relieved pressure on the ACC. The SEC could have looked east, towards Duke/UNC/Clemson/FSU, but ended up looking west and getting bigger prizes in Texas and Oklahoma.

I don't see the SEC expanding beyond 16, so I think the ACC is safe. Also, if the B1G was going to make a 'reaction raid' to respond to the SEC, I think we would have seen that by now. B1G is scared of ACC GOR.

IMO, kind of like 10 years ago, when I thought there was only room for one Power conference on the east coast (ACC or Big East), it seemed like the two most inherently unstable P5 conference were the Big 12 and ACC.

I think the TX and OU move settled that.

But we shall see. I do think that if the ACC splits up in the next 10 years, it will be due to internal causes - some of the big schools being unable to bear the huge money gap between themselves and the SEC/B1G, and begging either one for membership, rather than overt raids by either of those conferences.

(09-28-2021 12:59 AM)jdgaucho Wrote:  With thunderous applause

I'm already clapping at just the thought of it! Whenever & however it dies, I hope it is a painful death for those who pushed the GoR that keeps the prisoners behind bars and the ACC technically alive. I so wish FSU had gone Independent or anywhere else really just to get out when Maryland did, from what I saw at the time they were the only 2 "No" votes on the initial GoR.

(09-27-2021 05:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

That's an appealing set of regional divisions. And it would likely function much more democratically.

I think it's too late for the ACC, but that would be a great improvement. The B1G learned from their Legends & Leaders debacle while the ACC refused to accept that people prefer geographically logical divisions. That is what I hate most about the ACC aside from the GoR, annual FSU games with BC & Syracuse and only occasionally playing Georgia Tech.

I wish FSU had gone the way of the Terp as well. Two basketball schools bringing down our football SOS.

(09-27-2021 06:11 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think the next chapter of realignment can only be triggered by the SEC and here’s why:

The Big 10 is only going to expand with schools who are going to bring value and are institutional fits.

There’s not a lot of those out there—in fact, there’s really only one blue chip to be had—ND.

ND isn’t going to volunteer to join the Big 10 so we have a stand off.

ESPN has the other 3 big revenue conferences frozen in a holding pattern. Big realignment is only going to happen when ESPN decides they want it to happen. If/when ESPN wants to knee cap the ACC, they will.

That’s why I don’t subscribe to these Armageddon scenarios at all.

To the extent that there’s any piece of instability out there, it’s Notre Dame.

Otherwise, another P5 league getting Texas was the entire end game. The SEC won on that front. There’s no single move - not Florida State, not USC, not anyone - that has the monumental impact of integrating Texas into the SEC.

That’s why there was a ton of power conference movement in 2010-2012 - those were all intermediary moves to put the other P5 into place for the day that Texas decided to want to move. Now that it’s happened, the incentives for the other P5 leagues to make any move short of adding Notre Dame has decreased dramatically.

Oh sure - we can go into wild theories that the Big Ten can just add USC and UCLA, but the reality is that would be a shotgun marriage unless the Big Ten adds so many other Pac-12 schools that it would effectively need to be a full merger. That is NOT like the SEC adding UT and OU where they’re in a contiguous region and actually rekindling pre-existing rivalries like Texas-Texas A&M and Texas-Arkansas.

The SEC move was such a power one because actually makes sense geographically and for the institutions beyond just football and money. For all the talk about the SEC being aggressive, what makes the move work is that, when you take away the money and name brands involved, it’s a simple conservative no risk addition that slightly expands their geographic footprint. The only other potential move that’s on par with that where such power and fit can be achieved by adding just two schools is the Big Ten or ACC adding ND plus a tag-along. That’s it. Nothing else make any actual real world institutional sense that isn’t requiring leagues to jump over states or even entire time zones and/or needing to add entire new wings of 4/6/8 schools to make it work.

I keep going back to this: UT/OU going to the SEC is *not* a shotgun marriage because it makes sense even without the money. I can’t say the same above moves like USC going to the Big Ten. It’s a weird state where even though conference realignment is all about the money, there’s still an important element for the most valuable schools that whatever moves they make also need to make sense when you take away the money… and that is what’s going to limit power conference realignment a whole lot more in the future. Texas was so important because they could conceivably fit into any P5 league coast-to-coast: they were truly the end game.

(09-27-2021 05:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(09-27-2021 04:47 PM)LeeNobody Wrote:  I believe the ACC is in the last decade of being a "power conference". There is simply no way to to makeup the revenue gap and keep the conference together. With broadcast rights completely in ESPN's control and no incentive for them to increase payouts, the ACC is a deadman walking. The ACC has no way to leverage ND into the conference, and if the playoff expands per the 12 team plan, Notre Dame's independence is ensured in perpetuity. Once the grant of rights is within a reasonable exit value, schools will announce there intentions to leave on backroom deals. How do you think the ACC power status ends?

Here is what i think is probable:
2029
The SEC with the most power in situation is the first mover. Wanting to increase distrubuion and setup future northern additions, the SEC offers membership to NCST, VT. These to are selected as the demands of UNC for UVA and duke were deemed untenable. They also invite as FSU and Clemson to increase the ad rates the SEC can charge in Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

The B1G is no longer able to sit on the sidelines. They respond with an invite of UVA, UNC, GT, and Miami. They extend full membership to Notre Dame in the chaos with the promise of one tag along. I think ND would request Pitt as Navy would not join the B1G.

The B12 would smell blood in the water and invite L'ville to enchance the Big east wing, perhaps pairing this addition with USF or Memphis

The ACC down to Duke, Wake, BC, and Cuse would add back academically minded basketball schools. Some combination of uconn, umass, buffalo, temple, tulane, rice. Creating a modern magnolia league. Viewed as a peer to the ivy league, it may drop down to fcs.

Thoughts?

Most of your analysis is accurate. But, the SEC won't make the first move. So if the Big 10 moves to 16 out of the remnants of the B12/PAC/or should ND simply decide to cash a big check, the SEC likely does nothing. We did our thing with OU and UT and if the B1G lands Colorado or Kansas and Notre Dame then bully for them.

If the B1G moves on UNC and UVa the SEC will move as well in part to protect Deep South brands and to counter the B1G with a presence in both Virginia and North Carolina. I should think ESPN would be active behind the scenes to keep 100% of the rights they want and based on market penetration their ideal product to the SEC would be UNC, VaTech, FSU, and Clemson as things stand now.

However if you really look at the numbers. That's 3 of the top 4 ACC earners and the top brand in North Carolina. Duke, Virginia, Ga Tech and Notre Dame would be schools ESPN would let go of I think. Duke draws very well in NYC. Virginia gives the B1G 10 what they want in the Beltway where they are alumni strong, Atlanta has quite a few of the B1G diaspora as well. And face it Notre Dame is the rug that really ties the room together for the Dude of Chi-town. Advertising, branding, history, and revenue.

But who goes where is secondary to who moves first. ESPN and the SEC want to be seen as being protective of solid ACC brands and not predatory. The B1G will have to be the aggressor again and if they are they will be successful for the most part. $40 million more in just media revenue is security in uncertain times.

To throw a log on the fire the rumor out of B'ham is that backchannel conversations have happened with an old core ACC school and a football first ACC school and may have started 3 days after the OU / UT announcement.

And to toss a wrinkle into the discussion if UVa, UNC, and Duke all wanted to move as a group to the SEC that just might happen as ESPN is enamored of that winter rights coverage.

Ask yourselves this, if you lost Duke, UNC, and UVa you lose 3 schools which are middle of the pack in revenue. If ND joined the new ACC in full and Clemson and FSU remained and you could add WVU and swipe Cincy before the B12 gets them in, what kind of value do you think the new ACC would bring? If N.D. was a full member now they would be the most valuable ACC product and worth 27.7% of the conferences value. Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia together are a little more than 15% of the ACC total value. You could lose those 3 academic bell cows and gain revenue. That's something to think about.

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

That's an appealing set of regional divisions. And it would likely function much more democratically.

I'm still taking Notre Dame at their word that they will remain independent. So I would tweak this a little further.

New SEC divisions:
Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Arkansas
LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Alabama, Auburn
Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, South Carolina

New ACC divisions:
NC State, Wake Forest, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Miami
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville

Effectively, that stymies the Big Ten, while leaving the Big 12 viable with 10 members.

(09-27-2021 05:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  ...if UVa, UNC, and Duke all wanted to move as a group to the SEC that just might happen as ESPN is enamored of that winter rights coverage.

Ask yourselves this, if you lost Duke, UNC, and UVa you lose 3 schools which are middle of the pack in revenue. If ND joined the new ACC in full and Clemson and FSU remained and you could add WVU and swipe Cincy before the B12 gets them in, what kind of value do you think the new ACC would bring? If N.D. was a full member now they would be the most valuable ACC product and worth 27.7% of the conferences value. Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia together are a little more than 15% of the ACC total value. You could lose those 3 academic bell cows and gain revenue. That's something to think about.

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

That's an appealing set of regional divisions. And it would likely function much more democratically.

I've been saying this for years on my blog: the ACC actually could end up stronger if it lost UNC, Duke and UVa... at the very least, it's nothing to be worried about!

(09-28-2021 09:37 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(09-27-2021 05:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  ...if UVa, UNC, and Duke all wanted to move as a group to the SEC that just might happen as ESPN is enamored of that winter rights coverage.

Ask yourselves this, if you lost Duke, UNC, and UVa you lose 3 schools which are middle of the pack in revenue. If ND joined the new ACC in full and Clemson and FSU remained and you could add WVU and swipe Cincy before the B12 gets them in, what kind of value do you think the new ACC would bring? If N.D. was a full member now they would be the most valuable ACC product and worth 27.7% of the conferences value. Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia together are a little more than 15% of the ACC total value. You could lose those 3 academic bell cows and gain revenue. That's something to think about.

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

That's an appealing set of regional divisions. And it would likely function much more democratically.

I've been saying this for years on my blog: the ACC actually could end up stronger if it lost UNC, Duke and UVa... at the very least, it's nothing to be worried about!

Yeah, but that's arguable only because in the other guy's scenario, they add Notre Dame.

Problem is, if ND ever does join the ACC, I think it will be because of schools like Duke, UNC and UVA. That's who is attractive to them in that league, outside of Pitt. BC is a little brother they have no interest in sharing a conference with, IMO.

(09-28-2021 09:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(09-28-2021 09:37 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(09-27-2021 05:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  ...if UVa, UNC, and Duke all wanted to move as a group to the SEC that just might happen as ESPN is enamored of that winter rights coverage.

Ask yourselves this, if you lost Duke, UNC, and UVa you lose 3 schools which are middle of the pack in revenue. If ND joined the new ACC in full and Clemson and FSU remained and you could add WVU and swipe Cincy before the B12 gets them in, what kind of value do you think the new ACC would bring? If N.D. was a full member now they would be the most valuable ACC product and worth 27.7% of the conferences value. Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia together are a little more than 15% of the ACC total value. You could lose those 3 academic bell cows and gain revenue. That's something to think about.

Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

That's an appealing set of regional divisions. And it would likely function much more democratically.

I've been saying this for years on my blog: the ACC actually could end up stronger if it lost UNC, Duke and UVa... at the very least, it's nothing to be worried about!

Yeah, but that's arguable only because in the other guy's scenario, they add Notre Dame.

Problem is, if ND ever does join the ACC, I think it will be because of schools like Duke, UNC and UVA. That's who is attractive to them in that league, outside of Pitt. BC is a little brother they have no interest in sharing a conference with, IMO.

Correct. Add Georgia Tech to your list as well. FSU and Miami used to be attractive for football scheduling, but now both dwell at the bottom of the league. My how 20 years goes quickly.

Only way would be for the sec to take 8 ACC schools but the acc would still live on. I don’t see UVA or UNC ever joining the big 10 let alone as a single move, they will want friends which is possible in an 8 team Sec move

Only 2 things will trigger expansion at this point:

1. ND deciding they WANT to join the Big 10
2. The SEC deciding they want to expand

The PAC 12 is geographically hemmed in and really only has a realistic shot at pulling in Big 12 schools.

The ACC is in the same boat as the PAC 12. They could steal an Eastern Big 12 school but likely won’t.

For the Big 10, the cliques of AAU members in the ACC and PAC 12 would require too many additions for the move to make money for the Big 10 so they are penned in unless ND, the one giant prize left, decides they want to join.

This leaves the SEC—they can expand whenever they want (but it won’t be prudent to do so until the ACC GOR is almost up). The Texas/Oklahoma move has backed everyone else into a corner.

(09-27-2021 04:58 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  You have the SEC adding 4 teams, but I'm not sure the money is there for even ONE...

Let's just say by 2024 that ESPN is spending something like $800M per year on the SEC and its (soon-to-be) 16 schools and $300M on the ACC and its *15* members.

If "a few" of the ACC's marquee brands can be absorbed into the SEC, would not ESPN be more than happy going forward to move a chunk of those media rights dollars away from the ACC and to the SEC knowing full well that more games between big-name programs will undoubtedly be better for the bottom line?

One of the legendary posters here likes to remind us all to "think like a president" when it comes to realignment.

In this case, it might be worthwhile to think like a network executive.

(09-28-2021 10:13 AM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(09-27-2021 04:58 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  You have the SEC adding 4 teams, but I'm not sure the money is there for even ONE...

Let's just say by 2024 that ESPN is spending something like $800M per year on the SEC and its (soon-to-be) 16 schools and $300M on the ACC and its *15* members.

If "a few" of the ACC's marquee brands can be absorbed into the SEC, would not ESPN be more than happy going forward to move a chunk of those media rights dollars away from the ACC and to the SEC knowing full well that more games between big-name programs will undoubtedly be better for the bottom line?

One of the legendary posters here likes to remind us all to "think like a president" when it comes to realignment.

In this case, it might be worthwhile to think like a network executive.

Why would ESPN move any ACC school, whose rights it controls through 2036, to the SEC, which is already going to be unwieldy at 16, and in doing so (1) devalue its investment in the ACC and (2) pay significantly more to the ACC schools once they're in the SEC for a couple of additional good matchups? The ACC's participation in the nebulous "Alliance" seems more like a gambit to get ESPN to pay more for a 9th conference game or enhanced OOC scheduling with the B1G and PAC. Yet ESPN owns the rights to all of the current ACC-SEC OOC rivalry games (SCAR-Clemson, UGA-GT, FSU-UF, UK-Lousiville) and can prod both leagues to set future, made-for-TV OOC matchups that don't require jumping to a different league in exchange for more money. We already had Clemson-UGA, Louisville-Ole Miss, and Bama-Miami this year. It wouldn't be that difficult, after accounting for the ACC schools who have to play ND in a given year and away games at an SEC rival (if applicable), to still set up 4-5 matchups annually, beyond the end of season rivalries, where Clemson, Miami, VT, Louisville, UNC and other ACC teams cycle through Bama, Auburn, Ole Miss, UGA, Texas, OU etc., increasing strength of schedule, money, and eyeballs.

(09-28-2021 07:30 AM)LeeNobody Wrote:  What are the factors to who will be the first mover in the death of the ACC? Are they predictable? Many correctly identified the non interest in early tv rights renewal for the B12 as a sign of reallignment being immenent. What would be a similar sign for the ACC?

Contract length of the B1G?

Playoff expansion failure?

Gee. You really want to see the ACC die, don’t you?

You have to look at the fundamentals instead of waiting for the signs:

* BC, Cuse and/or Pitt may want to join the BIG but an invitation won’t come unless ND decides to join the BIG.
* FSU, Clemson, Miami, Louisville and/or GT may want to join the SEC but an invitation won’t come. FSU is probabaly the most valuable among these five but the SEC had chosen Missouri over FSU. In other words, FSU was less valuable than Missouri to the SEC, which already has UF. With OU and TX joining, the SEC will have absolutely zero need to add these ACC schools.
* NC and VA schools are a stubborn bunch and they are not leaving. Even if the ACC loses a few teams, I suspect that the ACC will never die as long as the core is intact.

(09-28-2021 08:25 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(09-27-2021 06:11 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think the next chapter of realignment can only be triggered by the SEC and here’s why:

The Big 10 is only going to expand with schools who are going to bring value and are institutional fits.

There’s not a lot of those out there—in fact, there’s really only one blue chip to be had—ND.

ND isn’t going to volunteer to join the Big 10 so we have a stand off.

ESPN has the other 3 big revenue conferences frozen in a holding pattern. Big realignment is only going to happen when ESPN decides they want it to happen. If/when ESPN wants to knee cap the ACC, they will.

That’s why I don’t subscribe to these Armageddon scenarios at all.

To the extent that there’s any piece of instability out there, it’s Notre Dame.

Otherwise, another P5 league getting Texas was the entire end game. The SEC won on that front. There’s no single move - not Florida State, not USC, not anyone - that has the monumental impact of integrating Texas into the SEC.

That’s why there was a ton of power conference movement in 2010-2012 - those were all intermediary moves to put the other P5 into place for the day that Texas decided to want to move. Now that it’s happened, the incentives for the other P5 leagues to make any move short of adding Notre Dame has decreased dramatically.

Oh sure - we can go into wild theories that the Big Ten can just add USC and UCLA, but the reality is that would be a shotgun marriage unless the Big Ten adds so many other Pac-12 schools that it would effectively need to be a full merger. That is NOT like the SEC adding UT and OU where they’re in a contiguous region and actually rekindling pre-existing rivalries like Texas-Texas A&M and Texas-Arkansas.

The SEC move was such a power one because actually makes sense geographically and for the institutions beyond just football and money. For all the talk about the SEC being aggressive, what makes the move work is that, when you take away the money and name brands involved, it’s a simple conservative no risk addition that slightly expands their geographic footprint. The only other potential move that’s on par with that where such power and fit can be achieved by adding just two schools is the Big Ten or ACC adding ND plus a tag-along. That’s it. Nothing else make any actual real world institutional sense that isn’t requiring leagues to jump over states or even entire time zones and/or needing to add entire new wings of 4/6/8 schools to make it work.

I keep going back to this: UT/OU going to the SEC is *not* a shotgun marriage because it makes sense even without the money. I can’t say the same above moves like USC going to the Big Ten. It’s a weird state where even though conference realignment is all about the money, there’s still an important element for the most valuable schools that whatever moves they make also need to make sense when you take away the money… and that is what’s going to limit power conference realignment a whole lot more in the future. Texas was so important because they could conceivably fit into any P5 league coast-to-coast: they were truly the end game.

When we finally get down to the final 40, 42, 48 what ever the number, the money will be very similar from conference to conference.
That is why it is not so "out there" to believe that Penn State may indeed take a hard look at joining the ACC.....regionalism. Old foes like Syracuse and Pitt, reduced travel and maybe the most important thing of all.....being out of the shadow of Ohio State and to a lesser extent Michigan and being able to be the BIG FISH again. The down side for the ACC is that the B1G may attach Rutgers and Maryland.
It's certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

Why they so obsessed with us

(09-28-2021 09:16 PM)esayem Wrote:  Why they so obsessed with us

One of your guys started the thread. So why are so many ACC fans unhappy with status quo? Now there's a question meriting a sober assessment! And is it really surprising that most of them are from football first schools?