(12-15-2021 01:33 PM)panicstricken Wrote:  Tulsa to the Big 12 2026

UCF sitting at a coffee shop enjoying brunch with our friend Cincy when out of nowhere *VIETNAM FLASHBACK*

(12-16-2021 02:04 PM)Boots Wrote:  Pure guessing for fun...next realignment dominos...

SEC @ 16 is pretty set for the moment.

Big 10 set @ 14. unless they want ISU/Kansas...which obviously didn't move the needle enough for them.

ACC at 14 is pretty set at moment. Was a little surprised they weren't more interested in Cincy/UCF combo. Cincy was perfect fit for ACC. I think the possibility of a Notre Dame down the road has them totally tied up from doing anything. Probably a mistake cause ND staying independent forever.

Big 12 adds Memphis, Boise, SMU, USF to go 16 for more strength.

PAC 12 is the one with the itchy trigger finger. New commissioner wants to make a mark. I think they will want to eventually get into the central time zone with more eye balls and markets with new CFB playoff. Media rumor comes out they about to add...Houston, TCU, Ok. State, Kansas.

Big 10 sensing they about lose Kansas to PAC conference adds.... Kansas and ISU in a rush. Big 10 now set @ 16.

PAC 12 ends up adding Houston, TCU, Ok. State, Texas Tech securing the TX market. Pac 12 now set @ 16.

Big 12 now at 10 again responds with SDSU, CSU to get back to 12.

I feel like the PAC and B1G will work something out together before they add any of those teams listed. With how ridiculous these conferences are getting maybe the top of the PAC gets picked off by the B1G and the big 12 takes some leftovers. Who knows

Greg Swaim is about the closest thing Oklahoma State has to The Dude of WVU. Of course he’s going to talk sh*t about OU, it’s what he does.

The next time Swaim is right about anything will be the first time. I just listed the times he said Louisville had an invite to The Big 12 in the search below.

https://twitter.com/search?lang=en&q=Lou...yped_query

For what it's worth there's a guy who's alum of my school on our board who has a brother who's alum at OU and has inside info says OU doesn't have the exit fee money. Swaim may be right. Million's to be made they'll find a way forward.

The Big Ten is about to get the biggest contract in P5. SEC is tied up now. I think the Big Ten pulls Kansas and Mizzou. Then Okla. State to SEC makes total sense.

(12-17-2021 08:52 PM)BIgCatonProwl Wrote:  For what it's worth there's a guy who's alum of my school on our board who has a brother who's alum at OU and has inside info says OU doesn't have the exit fee money. Swaim may be right. Million's to be made they'll find a way forward.

Swaim may be right.
If he is we all better get our affairs in order cause the end is near.

(12-16-2021 04:19 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(12-16-2021 02:04 PM)Boots Wrote:  Pure guessing for fun...next realignment dominos...

SEC @ 16 is pretty set for the moment.

Big 10 set @ 14. unless they want ISU/Kansas...which obviously didn't move the needle enough for them.

ACC at 14 is pretty set at moment. Was a little surprised they weren't more interested in Cincy/UCF combo. Cincy was perfect fit for ACC. I think the possibility of a Notre Dame down the road has them totally tied up from doing anything. Probably a mistake cause ND staying independent forever.

Big 12 adds Memphis, Boise, SMU, USF to go 16 for more strength.

PAC 12 is the one with the itchy trigger finger. New commissioner wants to make a mark. I think they will want to eventually get into the central time zone with more eye balls and markets with new CFB playoff. Media rumor comes out they about to add...Houston, TCU, Ok. State, Kansas.

Big 10 sensing they about lose Kansas to PAC conference adds.... Kansas and ISU in a rush. Big 10 now set @ 16.

PAC 12 ends up adding Houston, TCU, Ok. State, Texas Tech securing the TX market. Pac 12 now set @ 16.

Big 12 now at 10 again responds with SDSU, CSU to get back to 12.

Why can't SDSU and CSU go to the Pac-12? That would make far more sense. So the Pac-12 wants the CT and the Big 12 wants the PT?

Duplication and viewers. If PAC12 does anything the target is Texas market and some close neighbors in the central time zone.

(12-17-2021 08:52 PM)BIgCatonProwl Wrote:  For what it's worth there's a guy who's alum of my school on our board who has a brother who's alum at OU and has inside info says OU doesn't have the exit fee money. Swaim may be right. Million's to be made they'll find a way forward.

Ah yes... The ultimate in reliable sources and confirmation:
"A guy on our board who has a brother..."

(12-17-2021 08:52 PM)BIgCatonProwl Wrote:  For what it's worth there's a guy who's alum of my school on our board who has a brother who's alum at OU and has inside info says OU doesn't have the exit fee money. Swaim may be right. Million's to be made they'll find a way forward.

You dont really even need special inside sources to know that. The 2 year early exit number is going to be in excess of 100 million--and could easily be closer to 125 million. A portion of that number is the "exit fee". That is a stated amount that is equal to twice the annual conference per team distribution (that would end up being around 70 to 80 million). The GOR is a separate free standing agreement that UT/OU also must buy their way out of. If UT/OU are really 50% or more of the value of the TV deal---any buyout would have to replace about 125 million a year to the Big12 payout.

Its possible ESPN could grease the skids by agreeing to leave the existing B12 payout unchanged through the end of the GOR. In that case---there are no real damages and the Big12 can be negotiate a token amount for the OU/UT GOR buyout. If the GOR portion is taken care of---then leaving the B12 early exit fee becomes irrelevant to the cost. The B12 exit fee will be twice the per team B12 distribution in Jan 2022 (about 70 to 80 million). In Jan 2025, it will be the same amount. There is nothing to be gained by waiting. The GOR portion of the exit cost is the only portion that declines as we near the expiration date. If the GOR portion can be negated with an ESPN promise or some sort of deal where the UT 50% ownership of the LHN is given to the Big12 makes up the lions share of the GOR buyout (rebranded as the Big12 Network)---then an early exit might could still happen. Frankly, I dont think the Big12 wants UT/OU to leave early because using their presence to help develop the image of the newbies is part of the Big12 rebuilding strategy.

(12-18-2021 02:08 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-17-2021 08:52 PM)BIgCatonProwl Wrote:  For what it's worth there's a guy who's alum of my school on our board who has a brother who's alum at OU and has inside info says OU doesn't have the exit fee money. Swaim may be right. Million's to be made they'll find a way forward.

You dont really even need special inside sources to know that. The 2 year early exit number is going to be in excess of 100 million--and could easily be closer to 125 million. A portion of that number is the "exit fee". That is a stated amount that is equal to twice the annual conference per team distribution (that would end up being around 70 to 80 million). The GOR is a separate free standing agreement that UT/OU must also must buy their way out of. If UT/OU are really 50% or more of the value of the TV deal---any buyout would have to replace about 125 million a year to the Big12 payout.

Its possible ESPN could grease the skids by agreeing to leave the existing B12 payout unchanged through the end of the GOR. In that case---there are no real damages and the Big12 can be negotiate a token amount for the OU/UT GOR buyout. If the GOR portion is taken care of---then leaving the B12 early exit fee becomes irrelevant to the cost. The B12 exit fee will be twice the per team B12 distribution in Jan 2022 (about 70 to 80 million). In Jan 2025, it will be the same amount. There is nothing to be gained by waiting. The GOR portion of the exit cost is the only portion that declines as we near the expiration date. If the GOR portion can be negated with an ESPN promise or some sort of deal where the UT 50% ownership of the LHN is given to the Big12 makes up the lions share of the GOR buyout (rebranded as the Big12 Network)---then an early exit might could still happen. Frankly, I dont think the Big12 wants UT/OU to leave early because using their presence to help develop the image of the newbies is part of the Big12 rebuilding strategy.

I don't think ESPN would want to overpay and offer a bailout to the Big12. Especially if they are in media rights negotiations with other conferences that current Big12 members have reached out to.

(12-18-2021 02:08 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Frankly, I dont think the Big12 wants UT/OU to leave early because using their presence to help develop the image of the newbies is part of the Big12 rebuilding strategy.

The remaining 8 teams want UT/OU to leave early as they will be able to DOUBLE their buyout fees that will receive in return...as that is much more valuable to them vs having those 2 teams hanging around for 2 more years.

(12-16-2021 06:24 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Greg Swaim is about the closest thing Oklahoma State has to The Dude of WVU. Of course he’s going to talk sh*t about OU, it’s what he does.

The next time Swaim is right about anything will be the first time. I just listed the times he said Louisville had an invite to The Big 12 in the search below.

https://twitter.com/search?lang=en&q=Lou...yped_query

Totally agree.

I'm sure that OU doesn't want to just give away millions of dollars, but as soon as I saw that this came from Greg Swain, it's simply not trustworthy. As Triple A noted, Swain may have info on on-the-field Big 12 issues, but he's not reliable on realignment stories at all (and injects/projects his opinion/bias into those stories).

(12-20-2021 11:37 AM)KnightLight Wrote:  

(12-18-2021 02:08 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Frankly, I dont think the Big12 wants UT/OU to leave early because using their presence to help develop the image of the newbies is part of the Big12 rebuilding strategy.

The remaining 8 teams do what UT/OU to leave early as they will be able to DOUBLE their buyout fees that will receive in return...as that is much more valuable to them vs having those 2 teams hanging around for 2 more years.

Not true at all. The exit fee is double the per team pay out (70-80 million total). That fee is the same today as it will be in 2025. It doesnt change. The GOR is a seperate matter. With no agreement, OU and Texas could leave today for 70-80 million each (same price as in 2025), BUT---if they leave prior to 2025----their TV rights would remain with the Big12 until the 2025 season. Thus, FOX and ESPN cannot cut the Big12 payout because they still have rights to the UT/OU home games (even if UT and OU are playing in the SEC starting in 2022). If OU/UT want to take their TV rights with them to the SEC prior to 2025, then they have to negotiate a GOR settlement---and thats going to be expensive......or---they could just go without their rights. Even without instant access to OU/UT home games----the SEC TV package would would still get the benefit of full rights to all OU/UT "conference away games"---which would be of substantial value.

(12-20-2021 12:44 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 11:37 AM)KnightLight Wrote:  

(12-18-2021 02:08 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Frankly, I dont think the Big12 wants UT/OU to leave early because using their presence to help develop the image of the newbies is part of the Big12 rebuilding strategy.

The remaining 8 teams do what UT/OU to leave early as they will be able to DOUBLE their buyout fees that will receive in return...as that is much more valuable to them vs having those 2 teams hanging around for 2 more years.

Not true at all. The exit fee is double the per team pay out (70-80 million total). That fee is the same today as it will be in 2025. It doesnt change. The GOR is a seperate matter. With no agreement, OU and Texas could leave today for 70-80 million each (same price as in 2025), BUT---if they leave prior to 2025----their TV rights would remain with the Big12 until the 2025 season. Thus, FOX and ESPN cannot cut the Big12 payout because they still have rights to the UT/OU home games (even if UT and OU are playing in the SEC starting in 2022). If OU/UT want to take their TV rights with them to the SEC prior to 2025, then they have to negotiate a GOR settlement---and thats going to be expensive......or---they could just go without their rights. Even without instant access to OU/UT home games----the SEC TV package would would still get the benefit of full rights to all OU/UT "conference away games"---which would be of substantial value.

Just watch....as the remaining 8 teams want to cash in...as they have UT/OU by the balls and they want $$$$ vs just one extra home game from them over the last 2 years.

(12-21-2021 07:02 AM)KnightLight Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 12:44 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 11:37 AM)KnightLight Wrote:  

(12-18-2021 02:08 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Frankly, I dont think the Big12 wants UT/OU to leave early because using their presence to help develop the image of the newbies is part of the Big12 rebuilding strategy.

The remaining 8 teams do what UT/OU to leave early as they will be able to DOUBLE their buyout fees that will receive in return...as that is much more valuable to them vs having those 2 teams hanging around for 2 more years.

Not true at all. The exit fee is double the per team pay out (70-80 million total). That fee is the same today as it will be in 2025. It doesnt change. The GOR is a seperate matter. With no agreement, OU and Texas could leave today for 70-80 million each (same price as in 2025), BUT---if they leave prior to 2025----their TV rights would remain with the Big12 until the 2025 season. Thus, FOX and ESPN cannot cut the Big12 payout because they still have rights to the UT/OU home games (even if UT and OU are playing in the SEC starting in 2022). If OU/UT want to take their TV rights with them to the SEC prior to 2025, then they have to negotiate a GOR settlement---and thats going to be expensive......or---they could just go without their rights. Even without instant access to OU/UT home games----the SEC TV package would would still get the benefit of full rights to all OU/UT "conference away games"---which would be of substantial value.

Just watch....as the remaining 8 teams want to cash in...as they have UT/OU by the balls and they want $$$$ vs just one extra home game from them over the last 2 years.

like most things in life, they're all posturing, to get the haggling started. it'll all get worked out for 2023. OU and UT still playing some games with B12 teams? likely. $$$ amount - TBD, but it will get hammered out. no one involved wants this to linger past the 2022 season

(12-14-2021 11:26 PM)mikeinoki Wrote:  Sounds like realignment is off. Welcome back to the fold everyone.

Probably too late to call everything off now, but if that did happen, the heck with it. I'd be fine staying in the American.

(12-21-2021 07:41 AM)dave108 Wrote:  

(12-21-2021 07:02 AM)KnightLight Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 12:44 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-20-2021 11:37 AM)KnightLight Wrote:  

(12-18-2021 02:08 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Frankly, I dont think the Big12 wants UT/OU to leave early because using their presence to help develop the image of the newbies is part of the Big12 rebuilding strategy.

The remaining 8 teams do what UT/OU to leave early as they will be able to DOUBLE their buyout fees that will receive in return...as that is much more valuable to them vs having those 2 teams hanging around for 2 more years.

Not true at all. The exit fee is double the per team pay out (70-80 million total). That fee is the same today as it will be in 2025. It doesnt change. The GOR is a seperate matter. With no agreement, OU and Texas could leave today for 70-80 million each (same price as in 2025), BUT---if they leave prior to 2025----their TV rights would remain with the Big12 until the 2025 season. Thus, FOX and ESPN cannot cut the Big12 payout because they still have rights to the UT/OU home games (even if UT and OU are playing in the SEC starting in 2022). If OU/UT want to take their TV rights with them to the SEC prior to 2025, then they have to negotiate a GOR settlement---and thats going to be expensive......or---they could just go without their rights. Even without instant access to OU/UT home games----the SEC TV package would would still get the benefit of full rights to all OU/UT "conference away games"---which would be of substantial value.

Just watch....as the remaining 8 teams want to cash in...as they have UT/OU by the balls and they want $$$$ vs just one extra home game from them over the last 2 years.

like most things in life, they're all posturing, to get the haggling started. it'll all get worked out for 2023. OU and UT still playing some games with B12 teams? likely. $$$ amount - TBD, but it will get hammered out. no one involved wants this to linger past the 2022 season

Not true. The leftover 8 want to maximize profits with home full stadiums through 2025 when OU and Texas come to town. Maximizes ticket sales, parking, concession, and other revenue producing dollars while they are around. Once OU and Texas leave those big bucks disappear. Their replacement teams are not going to bring in the big game day dollars when they show up and the TV revenue streams are going to shrink too. Most of the Little Eight schools and the replacement schools will never see a game with OU and Texas again after they leave for the SEC.

Seems to me this is more of a negotiation tactic for OU. They are simply attempting to reduce their buyout & by publicly stating they are willing to stay the required period, it gets remaining members less $$ & might serve to help reduce early exit fees.

(12-22-2021 10:46 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  Seems to me this is more of a negotiation tactic for OU. They are simply attempting to reduce their buyout & by publicly stating they are willing to stay the required period, it gets remaining members less $$ & might serve to help reduce early exit fees.

Ding Ding Ding Ding!! They are in a position of strength and Time is on OU's side to wait it out reducing exposure. The Big12 or what's left of the Big12 will negotiate in the near term.

(12-22-2021 07:34 AM)Golden Jedi Knight Wrote:  

(12-14-2021 11:26 PM)mikeinoki Wrote:  Sounds like realignment is off. Welcome back to the fold everyone.

Probably too late to call everything off now, but if that did happen, the heck with it. I'd be fine staying in the American.

Cincinnati is already packed and waiting for the truck. The CFP uniform reveal this week we seem to have yanked off the AAC patch. That will chap some butts.