Love him or hate him, he tends to have good sources. That and he works for Disney/ESPN.

Finebaum expects major schools to explore "exit strategy" to join SEC as playoff talks stall

Correct analysis or will he eat his words?

(01-21-2022 06:31 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Love him or hate him, he tends to have good sources. That and he works for Disney/ESPN.

Finebaum expects major schools to explore "exit strategy" to join SEC as playoff talks stall

Correct analysis or will he eat his words?

I sure hope he's right! And I think what he is saying makes a hell of lot more sense than Warden Phillips BS statement that the ACC is "very aligned" in opposing playoff expansion.

Finebaum almost gets there.

There are multiple dilemmas:
First the SEC has a dilemma (whether it's conference driven or ESPN driven). They want/need to expand. Preference would be to get into North Carolina and Virginia. The low hanging fruit would be Florida State and Clemson (both are more SEC like than any other ACC schools). Both are big stadium schools with multiple fans that like to travel and support their teams. They fit the SEC but they really don't add anything.
Carolina and Virginia have a dilemma in that they can't afford to pass on SEC membership dollars, but they can't compete in the SEC because of the lack of dollars.
Several years ago under the "leadership" of Bubba Cunningham, Carolina reduced the number of seats in Kenan Stadium from 63,000 to 51,500 in an effort to increase fan comfort. Butch Davis was filling the 63,000 Cunningham's coaching selection Larry Fedora was not.

So if basketball can't be separated from NCAA control, can Carolina and Virginia afford to move to the SEC? Can they afford to stay in the ACC? Would they actually entertain moving to the B1G instead? Sitting still is becoming less and less attractive. The ACC moving into the northeast (ESPN's idea) has been a bust for the product and the fans and the hope of Notre Dame coming to the ACC's rescue is fading. Carolina needs to do something, but woke culture and the lack leadership has produced nothing but hand wringing.

The SEC moving to 20 with Carolina, Virginia, Duke and Kansas would be a strong strategic move but the idea of going from 14 to 24 gets really scary for all concerned.

So here we sit, in limbo until somebody actually makes a decision. If we move to a 12 team playoff, ESPN loses all leverage with Notre Dame. Will Carolina, UVa, and Duke take the money to become like Vanderbilt on the football field? Will the SEC decide to skip the riches that another 20+ million audience could deliver and grab Clemson and Florida State instead?
Dilemmas abound.

Finebaum almost gets there

(01-21-2022 06:31 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Love him or hate him, he tends to have good sources. That and he works for Disney/ESPN.

Finebaum expects major schools to explore "exit strategy" to join SEC as playoff talks stall

Correct analysis or will he eat his words?

I'll go with hate him. Only difference between him and the SEC cheerleaders on this board is people pay him to cheerlead. The only difference between him and Bill Walton is Walton actually could play basketball before, not sure what Paul's credentials are.

"We're joining the only conference that matters."

X - it was after AFAM scandal that you lost about 4-5K in annual average attendance. Fed put 60K in for Duke and Miami in 2015, but that same year only 41K showed up for Illinois. Yes you get 95% capacity for South Carolina, Miami, Duke, NC State, ECU, and Notre Dame, but you have had as few as 33K show up for VT and attendance for the body bag games are relatively low.

Not all of it is the AFAM deal, some of it is cultural, gender, and age like the geriatric status of the Rams Club. Without parking and tailgating facilities on a par with Columbia or Raleigh you have a real disadvantage. 35K-45K tickets per game per year will keep you permanently $25-35 million a year in revenue behind Texas, TAMU, OU, Tennessee, Bama, Auburn, Florida, and Georgia before ratcheting up donations needed to purchase tickets. Historically Carolina has trailed only Duke and UVa in access to money. I just can see it being acceptable to the ptb.

I have the occasion to be on campus 3-4 times a week. That's not a football crowd. Of course I am old enough to also be stunned when on NC State's campus now and the number of attractive women on campus who are obviously not taking a single class while in school at Meredith or Peace College.

Is Finebaum suggesting an expanded SEC could simply opt out of any CFP entirely? If they were to opt out today, even without further expansion, I don't believe the winner of whatever playoff you could devise without them would be universally accepted as a "national" champion. We'd be back to the polls anointing an unofficial champion.

Frankly, that wouldn't bother me at all. A 24 team SEC that remained regional could easily stage a lucrative 8 team conference championship tournament culminating with the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day. Eventually, there would be a demand for the equivalent of a college "Super Bowl" matching the SEC champ and whoever wins the other tournament.

An expanded SEC might look like this:

Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, Kansas
Alabama, Mississippi St, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Arkansas, Vanderbilt
Georgia, Auburn, Florida, South Carolina, Virginia Tech, Kentucky
Clemson, Florida State, Miami, UNC, Duke, Virginia

Four division champs plus four at large teams would make for a great CCT. You add 23+ million population within the footprint, 3 hoops blue bloods, and a lock on the state of Florida.

The biggest obstacle to this would be the ACC exit fees and GoR. I don't know if there's enough money to negotiate those obstacles away.

(01-21-2022 06:31 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Love him or hate him, he tends to have good sources. That and he works for Disney/ESPN.

Finebaum expects major schools to explore "exit strategy" to join SEC as playoff talks stall

Correct analysis or will he eat his words?

I've been telling you guys for over a month, and you didn't believe me. Now that Finebaum is plugging it somehow, it's gold. He has always been so full of disinformation now that he's picked up on it he's either heard from an inside SEC source, or ESPN is using the plan as leverage by breaking the news.

And to Ken D, I don't think you would find it as ACC oriented as what you have listed. Clemson and Florida State are logical football choices. But there have been back-channel conversations with schools from conferences which would shock the board.

I believe they would be wise to include major basketball brands, but that may be a part of the process later on. What would the world think if the first simple move included Clemson, FSU, Notre Dame, and Miami? Then you might attract for the next 4 Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and USC. I'm not saying these are the schools. I'm merely indicating how the process may unfold.

So what happens if Clemson and Florida State pay up to some degree and leave the ACC for the SEC?

(01-22-2022 04:07 PM)XLance Wrote:  So what happens if Clemson and Florida State pay up to some degree and leave the ACC for the SEC?

Look X, the easiest first move would be a partial merger of the ACC into the SEC once ACC schools decide which world they want, amateurism or pay for play.

If that happens hoops might become an important and integral part of the move. If not the initial move will be over football and basketball could follow a year or two later.

If the SEC landed Clemson and Florida State, particularly with Notre Dame and a school like Miami (history and brand) what news service would legitimately believe any other proclaimed champion legitimate, let alone the public?

That initial configuration puts overwhelming pressure on 6 or 7 Big Ten schools. Some would join. Then if USC, Oregon, Washington, and Utah wanted in you quickly develop a Super Conference into a nationwide league. I'd include UCLA except who knows how California politics will play into these decisions. I'd think favorably but I'm not sure.

JR, Notre Dame is a bridge too far even for the SEC.

(01-22-2022 06:14 PM)XLance Wrote:  JR, Notre Dame is a bridge too far even for the SEC.

Not for ESPN and not for a super conference. With the Irish and FSU the new conference has 7 of the top 10 earners. Add Miami & Clemson and you have 17 of the top 26.

From that position the pressure to participate only builds. And we aren't counting past champions of the last quarter century 22 of 25 with just those schools.

And X, if there is only 1 top tier conference then Irish participation is not like being limited to one conference among many. Instead, they would just be 1 team among contenders which is what independence in the NCAA essentially was.

(01-22-2022 03:31 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-21-2022 06:31 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Love him or hate him, he tends to have good sources. That and he works for Disney/ESPN.

Finebaum expects major schools to explore "exit strategy" to join SEC as playoff talks stall

Correct analysis or will he eat his words?

I've been telling you guys for over a month, and you didn't believe me. Now that Finebaum is plugging it somehow, it's gold. He has always been so full of disinformation now that he's picked up on it he's either heard from an inside SEC source, or ESPN is using the plan as leverage by breaking the news.

And to Ken D, I don't think you would find it as ACC oriented as what you have listed. Clemson and Florida State are logical football choices. But there have been back-channel conversations with schools from conferences which would shock the board.

I believe they would be wise to include major basketball brands, but that may be a part of the process later on. What would the world think if the first simple move included Clemson, FSU, Notre Dame, and Miami? Then you might attract for the next 4 Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and USC. I'm not saying these are the schools. I'm merely indicating how the process may unfold.

No, I believed you, but Finebaum saying the same thing will stir up even the most ardent doubter.

(01-22-2022 11:44 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(01-21-2022 06:31 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Love him or hate him, he tends to have good sources. That and he works for Disney/ESPN.

Finebaum expects major schools to explore "exit strategy" to join SEC as playoff talks stall

Correct analysis or will he eat his words?

I'll go with hate him. Only difference between him and the SEC cheerleaders on this board is people pay him to cheerlead. The only difference between him and Bill Walton is Walton actually could play basketball before, not sure what Paul's credentials are.

"We're joining the only conference that matters."

Telling the obtuse the truth isn't cheerleading. The lopsided record speaks for itself.

And to X Lance, adding Clemson and FSU adds 3 recent championships to the resume' and makes the perception of "elite" more prominent. Notre Dame's & Miami's history and brand adds as well.

I agree, and you know I do, about adding the hoops brand. 4 six team divisions covers it. Should Big 10 schools and PAC 12 schools want to join you simply add two more six team divisions. Work done by a media firm almost 10 year's ago set the value for football alone between 110-120 million a year.

ESPN just fired a shot across the bow. They’re ticked-off that Phillips isn’t going along with their playoff expansion. So they’ll rile up the fan bases of FSU and Clemson. This will be a difficult time for Phillips…wouldn’t be surprised with media criticism of any slightly controversial decision.

(01-22-2022 10:04 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  ESPN just fired a shot across the bow. They’re ticked-off that Phillips isn’t going along with their playoff expansion. So they’ll rile up the fan bases of FSU and Clemson. This will be a difficult time for Phillips…wouldn’t be surprised with media criticism of any slightly controversial decision.

Not exactly! They just asked for a roll call of support from ACC schools. Who is for them and who is not? What becomes of you depends on your answer. All they need do is release you from your contract and reward those who want to stay. And the legal basis will be those who accept pay for play and those who don't. It's going to impact most if not all conferences. This is why the alliance's only power was in their own minds. There is no holding onto the NCAA and there will be no binding contracts when decisions are rendered as the equity in all of those ends with pay for play.

The SEC's strength is that we know where 13 of the 14 current stand and the 2 joining knew what was coming and made their decision.

(01-22-2022 10:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 10:04 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  ESPN just fired a shot across the bow. They’re ticked-off that Phillips isn’t going along with their playoff expansion. So they’ll rile up the fan bases of FSU and Clemson. This will be a difficult time for Phillips…wouldn’t be surprised with media criticism of any slightly controversial decision.

Not exactly! They just asked for a roll call of support from ACC schools. Who is for them and who is not? What becomes of you depends on your answer. All they need do is release you from your contract and reward those who want to stay. And the legal basis will be those who accept pay for play and those who don't. It's going to impact most if not all conferences. This is why the alliance's only power was in their own minds. There is no holding onto the NCAA and there will be no binding contracts when decisions are rendered as the equity in all of those ends with pay for play.

The SEC's strength is that we know where 13 of the 14 current stand and the 2 joining knew what was coming and made their decision.

I’m confused…I just don’t see P5 schools panicking about player professionalization or pay-for-play. Similarly, not sure why eliminating benefit caps on player scholarships will cancel media contracts.

(01-21-2022 07:35 PM)Gamenole Wrote:  

(01-21-2022 06:31 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Love him or hate him, he tends to have good sources. That and he works for Disney/ESPN.

Finebaum expects major schools to explore "exit strategy" to join SEC as playoff talks stall

Correct analysis or will he eat his words?

I sure hope he's right! And I think what he is saying makes a hell of lot more sense than Warden Phillips BS statement that the ACC is "very aligned" in opposing playoff expansion.

I think it will be Clemson, FSU, North Carolina, maybe Virginia Tech should UVa decide to join Maryland in the B1G which is possible. I honestly believe that UNC will join the SEC along with FSU and Clemson.

(01-22-2022 11:33 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 10:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 10:04 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  ESPN just fired a shot across the bow. They’re ticked-off that Phillips isn’t going along with their playoff expansion. So they’ll rile up the fan bases of FSU and Clemson. This will be a difficult time for Phillips…wouldn’t be surprised with media criticism of any slightly controversial decision.

Not exactly! They just asked for a roll call of support from ACC schools. Who is for them and who is not? What becomes of you depends on your answer. All they need do is release you from your contract and reward those who want to stay. And the legal basis will be those who accept pay for play and those who don't. It's going to impact most if not all conferences. This is why the alliance's only power was in their own minds. There is no holding onto the NCAA and there will be no binding contracts when decisions are rendered as the equity in all of those ends with pay for play.

The SEC's strength is that we know where 13 of the 14 current stand and the 2 joining knew what was coming and made their decision.

I’m confused…I just don’t see P5 schools panicking about player professionalization or pay-for-play. Similarly, not sure why eliminating benefit caps on player scholarships will cancel media contracts.

When Texas and Oklahoma joined the SEC they represented 56.3% of the conference's commercial value. In the B1G (2nd greatest disparity) Ohio State and Michigan represent 36.7% of the commercial value. Penn State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa are within of 1.1% of each other and represent together another 35.5% of it. In the ACC Clemson and FSU represent 24.2%, Va Tech another 11.7% and if N.D. was included just for their 5 ACC games they would he worth 11.3%. So if those 4 alone left the ACC would suffer a 47.2% diminishment in value. The PAC has the most uniform valuation where Washington in a 12 team conference is only worth 14.7% of the total value.

Right about now you are asking what does this have to do with the post? ESPN is decapitating the value programs to assemble a super value conference.

Complicated? No. GOR's by precedent can be voided when adherence to a court ruling creates an inequity in existing contracts. We aren't talking about NIL's, stipends, or scholarships. We are talking salaries for players. And while many in the P5 are ready to make such a move it creates a much larger overhead for athletic departments which creates said inequity which did not exist when contracts were signed prior to the court ruling (which is expected). So schools will be spending much more in order to fulfill contracts while the networks aren't experiencing an overhead expense as a result of legal mandate. Under those circumstances (as has been the practice regarding entertainment contracts) a new contract must be signed. Now schools opting not to participate have to be let out at no additional penalty. This aspect will essentially void not only GOR's but also exit fees.

ESPN is (under these conditions) free to build the super conference insinuated above. The SEC has 11 of the top 24 valued programs. 13 are on record saying they are prepared to pay players. Vanderbilt, last I heard, hasn't made up its mind.

Right now the focus is on football value only, but full monetization will open up basketball product if freed of the NCAA which is what the SEC is about to do.

ESPN could easily place 8 ACC programs in the super conference should they be willing. The SEC is set to earn 76.5 million per school when OU and UT are on board. This is a move to not only separation but an upper tier of 24-48 schools. The money goes up. The TV exposure explodes, and those left out scramble.

And the targets are listed above. The more top heavy a conference is the easier it is to take the highest value for the fewest shares. This is how a corporation builds a product. Pain is coming. It always does when a raid happens, the best is gleaned, and the rest is sold off.

So, ESPN isn't making an idle threat. They are preparing to complete a 3-decade long plan. Now, do you want in or not? Virginia Tech is more accretive, but UNC would likely prefer your company, and they were allegedly in talks to the SEC, with Clemson, a week after OU and UT were outed early.

If this moves forward conferences as we know them will be gone and ESPN's first iteration of the SEC will be more like the old Southern Conference plus OU and UT, Missouri, and maybe Notre Dame.

(01-22-2022 03:31 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-21-2022 06:31 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  Love him or hate him, he tends to have good sources. That and he works for Disney/ESPN.

Finebaum expects major schools to explore "exit strategy" to join SEC as playoff talks stall

Correct analysis or will he eat his words?

I've been telling you guys for over a month, and you didn't believe me. Now that Finebaum is plugging it somehow, it's gold. He has always been so full of disinformation now that he's picked up on it he's either heard from an inside SEC source, or ESPN is using the plan as leverage by breaking the news.

And to Ken D, I don't think you would find it as ACC oriented as what you have listed. Clemson and Florida State are logical football choices. But there have been back-channel conversations with schools from conferences which would shock the board.

I believe they would be wise to include major basketball brands, but that may be a part of the process later on. What would the world think if the first simple move included Clemson, FSU, Notre Dame, and Miami? Then you might attract for the next 4 Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, and USC. I'm not saying these are the schools. I'm merely indicating how the process may unfold.

Actually I think I predicted one time that Notre Dame might be willing to look at joining the SEC. I would definitely find that considerably more believable than ND joining the B1G, because as I have said before, ND has had a bad history with the B1G. Plus, ND has numerous good relationships with the SEC as well. I'm sure TerryD could tell us that there are several Catholics in Louisiana, from his memory of when he still lived in that state. UGa and ND also have a history. AllTideUp could probably give us a good rundown of the Alabama-Notre Dame rivalry. Long story short, it has been all good. And when you add Florida State as well as Miami to that?? That is too much for Notre Dame to turn down, IMO.

I'm predicting that if Clemson and FSU decide to leave, UNC is going to be like "Hey fellers, don't forget about us!!!" and they'll be wanting to join too!!
I would think that if UNC decided to join the SEC, that UVa would want to follow since UNC is the "Georgia" to their "Auburn" (UNC-UVa's rivalry has roughly the same length as Georgia-Auburn), but they could decide to surprise everyone and hook up with Maryland in the B1G instead. I guess it all depends on if the B1G decides to change their stance on pay for play or not. Frank the Tank gives excellent analysis on why UNC to the SEC is likely.

https://frankthetank.org/2013/10/11/one-...position=2

(01-23-2022 01:09 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 11:33 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 10:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-22-2022 10:04 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  ESPN just fired a shot across the bow. They’re ticked-off that Phillips isn’t going along with their playoff expansion. So they’ll rile up the fan bases of FSU and Clemson. This will be a difficult time for Phillips…wouldn’t be surprised with media criticism of any slightly controversial decision.

Not exactly! They just asked for a roll call of support from ACC schools. Who is for them and who is not? What becomes of you depends on your answer. All they need do is release you from your contract and reward those who want to stay. And the legal basis will be those who accept pay for play and those who don't. It's going to impact most if not all conferences. This is why the alliance's only power was in their own minds. There is no holding onto the NCAA and there will be no binding contracts when decisions are rendered as the equity in all of those ends with pay for play.

The SEC's strength is that we know where 13 of the 14 current stand and the 2 joining knew what was coming and made their decision.

I’m confused…I just don’t see P5 schools panicking about player professionalization or pay-for-play. Similarly, not sure why eliminating benefit caps on player scholarships will cancel media contracts.

When Texas and Oklahoma joined the SEC they represented 56.3% of the conference's commercial value. In the B1G (2nd greatest disparity) Ohio State and Michigan represent 36.7% of the commercial value. Penn State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa are within of 1.1% of each other and represent together another 35.5% of it. In the ACC Clemson and FSU represent 24.2%, Va Tech another 11.7% and if N.D. was included just for their 5 ACC games they would he worth 11.3%. So if those 4 alone left the ACC would suffer a 47.2% diminishment in value. The PAC has the most uniform valuation where Washington in a 12 team conference is only worth 14.7% of the total value.

Right about now you are asking what does this have to do with the post? ESPN is decapitating the value programs to assemble a super value conference.

Complicated? No. GOR's by precedent can be voided when adherence to a court ruling creates an inequity in existing contracts. We aren't talking about NIL's, stipends, or scholarships. We are talking salaries for players. And while many in the P5 are ready to make such a move it creates a much larger overhead for athletic departments which creates said inequity which did not exist when contracts were signed prior to the court ruling (which is expected). So schools will be spending much more in order to fulfill contracts while the networks aren't experiencing an overhead expense as a result of legal mandate. Under those circumstances (as has been the practice regarding entertainment contracts) a new contract must be signed. Now schools opting not to participate have to be let out at no additional penalty. This aspect will essentially void not only GOR's but also exit fees.

ESPN is (under these conditions) free to build the super conference insinuated above. The SEC has 11 of the top 24 valued programs. 13 are on record saying they are prepared to pay players. Vanderbilt, last I heard, hasn't made up its mind.

Right now the focus is on football value only, but full monetization will open up basketball product if freed of the NCAA which is what the SEC is about to do.

ESPN could easily place 8 ACC programs in the super conference should they be willing. The SEC is set to earn 76.5 million per school when OU and UT are on board. This is a move to not only separation but an upper tier of 24-48 schools. The money goes up. The TV exposure explodes, and those left out scramble.

And the targets are listed above. The more top heavy a conference is the easier it is to take the highest value for the fewest shares. This is how a corporation builds a product. Pain is coming. It always does when a raid happens, the best is gleaned, and the rest is sold off.

So, ESPN isn't making an idle threat. They are preparing to complete a 3-decade long plan. Now, do you want in or not? Virginia Tech is more accretive, but UNC would likely prefer your company, and they were allegedly in talks to the SEC, with Clemson, a week after OU and UT were outed early.

If this moves forward conferences as we know them will be gone and ESPN's first iteration of the SEC will be more like the old Southern Conference plus OU and UT, Missouri, and maybe Notre Dame.

Makes one wonder if this would be a prelude to merger talks between the SEC and Big Ten. But that would require overcoming massive institutional inertia.

On the other hand, the SEC would finally get to sponsor ice hockey and men's lacrosse.