(02-21-2022 03:18 PM)fsquid Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 02:49 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  Putin knows we have an empty suit at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. surrounded by hacks and low-T wussies.

He also knows we have a populace that doesn't have the appetite for active US military action.

We were never going to place troops on the ground in Ukraine but let Putin make a move on a fellow NATO member & the response would be much different.

(02-21-2022 02:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 02:09 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 01:21 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  At minimum he’s taking the eastern portion down to connect to the Crimea. Nothing the geezer in chief can do about it.

What do the people of the eastern Ukrainian territory want?

To be apart of Russia or Ukraine?

My guess is that a vote would lean Russian, but there is a little more to it. Its worth noting that this Russian majority is largely because the ethnic Ukrainians who used to live there were replaced with ethnic Russians through a period of executions, starvation (basically a man made famine), and forced relocations that began in 1930's. That said, I tend to want self-determination for people. The people who live there now are the people who live there now. Its not their fault how they came to live there.

Thats why my preferred outcome is actually a partition of Ukraine into an East Ukraine and an West Ukraine. That would allow the eastern part of Ukraine to be a nation that leans east and is a satellite of Russia (or even part of Russia if thats what the folks who live there want) while West Ukraine (whats left of the existing independent Ukraine) leans west and is allowed to seek its own future as a member of the EU or as a member of NATO (assuming that's what the people of W Ukraine desire and assuming NATO agrees to it).

That sounds incredibly reasonable

Ukraine wasn't just part of the Warsaw Pact but a former USSR soviet republic. I can understand Russia's frustration with possibly having NATO on its border and wanting a buffer.

No matter your stance on Russia a logical decision as a world leader of a non NATO nation

(02-21-2022 03:33 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 03:11 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 10:18 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  I'm going with this week as well. bobdizole has a good point and if it doesn't happen this week then I think Putin may have figured out a way to get part of what he wants, or at least save face, without invading.

Looks like he just did.

Not been paying a LOT of attention today, but he’s signed some “agreement of friendship” or some crap with two provinces or whatever they call them that supposedly either want to be independent or rejoin Russia.

Either way, not our problem. Zalynskyy or their parliament (or whatever they have) should call for a referendum and see if the people want to rejoin Mother Russia.
If they go, they go.

In a way it is our problem. We talked Ukraine into signing a disarmament treaty. If Ukraine was willing to give up their nuclear arsenal we (and other countries) would help them.

Yea, that is a pretty schitty by-product of this whole thing.

I haven’t looked as to who on our end decided to simply trust the word of Russia and I guess Putin in that deal, so if this does go down as it appears it might we do need to follow through with at least these “crippling sanctions”. They gave up a Yuge stockpile of nukes with Russias assurance this wouldn’t happen.

Yet, now it’s happening. Does anyone wonder “why now”?

(02-21-2022 03:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 02:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 02:09 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 01:21 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  At minimum he’s taking the eastern portion down to connect to the Crimea. Nothing the geezer in chief can do about it.

What do the people of the eastern Ukrainian territory want?

To be apart of Russia or Ukraine?

My guess is that a vote would lean Russian, but there is a little more to it. Its worth noting that this Russian majority is largely because the ethnic Ukrainians who used to live there were replaced with ethnic Russians through a period of executions, starvation (basically a man made famine), and forced relocations that began in 1930's. That said, I tend to want self-determination for people. The people who live there now are the people who live there now. Its not their fault how they came to live there.

Thats why my preferred outcome is actually a partition of Ukraine into an East Ukraine and an West Ukraine. That would allow the eastern part of Ukraine to be a nation that leans east and is a satellite of Russia (or even part of Russia if thats what the folks who live there want) while West Ukraine (whats left of the existing independent Ukraine) leans west and is allowed to seek its own future as a member of the EU or as a member of NATO (assuming that's what the people of W Ukraine desire and assuming NATO agrees to it).

That sounds incredibly reasonable

Ukraine wasn't just part of the Warsaw Pact but a former USSR soviet republic. I can understand Russia's frustration with possibly having NATO on its border and wanting a buffer.

No matter your stance on Russia a logical decision as a world leader of a non NATO nation

Does Ukraine not have a right to self-determination?

(02-21-2022 03:18 PM)fsquid Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 02:49 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  Putin knows we have an empty suit at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. surrounded by hacks and low-T wussies.

He also knows we have a populace that doesn't have the appetite for active US military action.

That was never going to happen anyway, but if I'm Taiwan I've got every scientist in my country working on nuclear weapons and effective delivery systems (speculation is they may already have the abilities). No way I trust the Democrat Party to save me from China if I'm them. Past 2 Dem Presidents have basically let Putin carve off just enough of Ukraine to not be war-worthy.

Death by a million cuts?

(02-21-2022 03:50 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 03:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 02:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 02:09 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 01:21 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  At minimum he’s taking the eastern portion down to connect to the Crimea. Nothing the geezer in chief can do about it.

What do the people of the eastern Ukrainian territory want?

To be apart of Russia or Ukraine?

My guess is that a vote would lean Russian, but there is a little more to it. Its worth noting that this Russian majority is largely because the ethnic Ukrainians who used to live there were replaced with ethnic Russians through a period of executions, starvation (basically a man made famine), and forced relocations that began in 1930's. That said, I tend to want self-determination for people. The people who live there now are the people who live there now. Its not their fault how they came to live there.

Thats why my preferred outcome is actually a partition of Ukraine into an East Ukraine and an West Ukraine. That would allow the eastern part of Ukraine to be a nation that leans east and is a satellite of Russia (or even part of Russia if thats what the folks who live there want) while West Ukraine (whats left of the existing independent Ukraine) leans west and is allowed to seek its own future as a member of the EU or as a member of NATO (assuming that's what the people of W Ukraine desire and assuming NATO agrees to it).

That sounds incredibly reasonable

Ukraine wasn't just part of the Warsaw Pact but a former USSR soviet republic. I can understand Russia's frustration with possibly having NATO on its border and wanting a buffer.

No matter your stance on Russia a logical decision as a world leader of a non NATO nation

Does Ukraine not have a right to self-determination?

Yes, but they don't have a right to join NATO and it's hypocritical of the US to condemn Russia over Ukraine. We've intervened in countries further away from our border with far less of a national security interest than Russia has in Ukraine. We'd probably have already attacked Kiev if we were in Russia's shoes.

(02-21-2022 03:50 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 03:45 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 02:50 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 02:09 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 01:21 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  At minimum he’s taking the eastern portion down to connect to the Crimea. Nothing the geezer in chief can do about it.

What do the people of the eastern Ukrainian territory want?

To be apart of Russia or Ukraine?

My guess is that a vote would lean Russian, but there is a little more to it. Its worth noting that this Russian majority is largely because the ethnic Ukrainians who used to live there were replaced with ethnic Russians through a period of executions, starvation (basically a man made famine), and forced relocations that began in 1930's. That said, I tend to want self-determination for people. The people who live there now are the people who live there now. Its not their fault how they came to live there.

Thats why my preferred outcome is actually a partition of Ukraine into an East Ukraine and an West Ukraine. That would allow the eastern part of Ukraine to be a nation that leans east and is a satellite of Russia (or even part of Russia if thats what the folks who live there want) while West Ukraine (whats left of the existing independent Ukraine) leans west and is allowed to seek its own future as a member of the EU or as a member of NATO (assuming that's what the people of W Ukraine desire and assuming NATO agrees to it).

That sounds incredibly reasonable

Ukraine wasn't just part of the Warsaw Pact but a former USSR soviet republic. I can understand Russia's frustration with possibly having NATO on its border and wanting a buffer.

No matter your stance on Russia a logical decision as a world leader of a non NATO nation

Does Ukraine not have a right to self-determination?

Sure...both the east and west sides

As Coug said...
East Ukraine independent Russian satellite nation
West Ukraine independent NATO nation

Everyone gets what they want

(02-21-2022 03:55 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 03:18 PM)fsquid Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 02:49 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  Putin knows we have an empty suit at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. surrounded by hacks and low-T wussies.

He also knows we have a populace that doesn't have the appetite for active US military action.

That was never going to happen anyway, but if I'm Taiwan I've got every scientist in my country working on nuclear weapons and effective delivery systems (speculation is they may already have the abilities). No way I trust the Democrat Party to save me from China if I'm them. Past 2 Dem Presidents have basically let Putin carve off just enough of Ukraine to not be war-worthy.

Death by a million cuts?

This is why Ive said there IS a cost to staying the heck out of this. While it appears staying out of Ukraine has no cost to us---I suspect the real cost is actually a massive increase in future nuclear proliferation as nations realize we have no intention of going to war for some far away nation--regardless of what we might have promised on paper. A rapid increase of nuclear proliferation is the real cost. If Im Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, Australia---Im quietly working at warp speed on an independent domestically produced nuclear deterrent.

(02-21-2022 04:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 03:55 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 03:18 PM)fsquid Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 02:49 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  Putin knows we have an empty suit at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. surrounded by hacks and low-T wussies.

He also knows we have a populace that doesn't have the appetite for active US military action.

That was never going to happen anyway, but if I'm Taiwan I've got every scientist in my country working on nuclear weapons and effective delivery systems (speculation is they may already have the abilities). No way I trust the Democrat Party to save me from China if I'm them. Past 2 Dem Presidents have basically let Putin carve off just enough of Ukraine to not be war-worthy.

Death by a million cuts?

This is why Ive said there IS a cost to staying the heck out of this. While it appears staying out of Ukraine has no cost to us---I suspect the real cost is actually a massive increase in future nuclear proliferation as nations realize we have no intention of going to war for some far away nation--regardless of what we might have promised on paper. A rapid increase of nuclear proliferation is the real cost. If Im Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, Australia---Im quietly working at warp speed on an independent domestically produced nuclear deterrent.

I think you're right about proliferation. Probably countries like Brazil too, and South Africa had them under the apartheid regime and will likely quietly reassemble their nukes if they haven't already.

(02-21-2022 03:47 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 03:33 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 03:11 PM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 10:18 AM)Gamenole Wrote:  I'm going with this week as well. bobdizole has a good point and if it doesn't happen this week then I think Putin may have figured out a way to get part of what he wants, or at least save face, without invading.

Looks like he just did.

Not been paying a LOT of attention today, but he’s signed some “agreement of friendship” or some crap with two provinces or whatever they call them that supposedly either want to be independent or rejoin Russia.

Either way, not our problem. Zalynskyy or their parliament (or whatever they have) should call for a referendum and see if the people want to rejoin Mother Russia.
If they go, they go.

In a way it is our problem. We talked Ukraine into signing a disarmament treaty. If Ukraine was willing to give up their nuclear arsenal we (and other countries) would help them.

Yea, that is a pretty schitty by-product of this whole thing.

I haven’t looked as to who on our end decided to simply trust the word of Russia and I guess Putin in that deal, so if this does go down as it appears it might we do need to follow through with at least these “crippling sanctions”. They gave up a Yuge stockpile of nukes with Russias assurance this wouldn’t happen.

Yet, now it’s happening. Does anyone wonder “why now”?

Why now is obvious. Ukraine voted for a leader that tried to negotiate economic bailout deals with the both Russia and EU The EU told him to F off and Russia was happy to help. So the US helped overthrow their democratically elected president, installed a bunch of neo nazi thugs who hate Russians, began to bomb the hell out of them and began passing every law imaginable to restrict them and put them at a disadvantage in society. They cut their water, cut their phones and internet, cut their power, stopped paying their pensions and other benefits, stopped funding their schools or paying their teachers in the East, closed government offices, mail became sporadic at best and their shelves were all empty. Every time, right on the heels of a visit from US officials, like Joe Biden and John Brennan, Ukraine launched another offensive. Tens of thousands of people have been killed and there has been nary a peep about any Russians being killed by the Ukrainian government in the US media.

People had enough and fighting was inevitable. And the further Ukraines economy falters, the more bleak life looks for the people living there so they took action. They took it now.

(02-21-2022 02:24 PM)hburg Wrote:  Would you want to give parts of the USA away in an effort to please an enemy? Nobody wants war, but what does Ukraine want? I do not fault Ukraine if they want to fight to save all of their land.

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

I don’t either, but they aren’t going to find enough people willing to fight for it, which says it all. Sure they wouldn’t mind keeping the eastern part if someone else is willing to fight and die for it, but few in Ukraine are.

The west also has little will to fight. Russia takes parts of Ukraine and China take Taiwan. Taiwan I thought we had a war treaty with, but don't think USA will do anything to stop them, except cry sanctions....

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(02-21-2022 04:56 PM)hburg Wrote:  The west also has little will to fight. Russia takes parts of Ukraine and China take Taiwan. Taiwan I thought we had a war treaty with, but don't think USA will do anything to stop them, except cry sanctions....

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

Taiwan makes all the semi-conductors that have caused the supply chain issues we are struggling with. They make something of value to the real rulers of the world, the major corporations. That's something we'd be ordered to fight for.

(02-21-2022 04:56 PM)hburg Wrote:  The west also has little will to fight. Russia takes parts of Ukraine and China take Taiwan. Taiwan I thought we had a war treaty with, but don't think USA will do anything to stop them, except cry sanctions....

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

The biggest mistake Ukraine made was the security assurances given to Ukraine by the US, UK, and Russia were non-binding. Pretty dumb to give up a nuclear arsenal for a paper non-binding non-specific promise of security. Taiwan's defense assurances from the US are equally non-binding and non-specific. If China made a move on Taiwan, I suspect our response to Russian aggression in Ukraine would be dusted off and repeated in the east.

(02-21-2022 05:06 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 04:56 PM)hburg Wrote:  The west also has little will to fight. Russia takes parts of Ukraine and China take Taiwan. Taiwan I thought we had a war treaty with, but don't think USA will do anything to stop them, except cry sanctions....

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

Taiwan makes all the semi-conductors that have caused the supply chain issues we are struggling with. They make something of value to the real rulers of the world, the major corporations. That's something we'd be ordered to fight for.

The problem is---What difference would fighting for them make when it comes to semi-conductors? The reality is that valuable industry infrastructure wouldnt survive a war for the tiny island nation. What we need to be doing is "on shoring" enough of that semi-conductor infrastructure to handle all US needs should Taiwan be removed from our supply chain. This move needs to be ultra-fast tracked pronto.

If you give the enemy a little, they will take a whole lot, eventually like the other world wars, the USA will eventually have no choice, but to fight. The way those two countries are flexing to me shows the weakness they see in America and its leaders. Our perception of strength is no longer what it was. The bear and the dragon are hungry to devour the eagle and its allies.

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(02-21-2022 05:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 05:06 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 04:56 PM)hburg Wrote:  The west also has little will to fight. Russia takes parts of Ukraine and China take Taiwan. Taiwan I thought we had a war treaty with, but don't think USA will do anything to stop them, except cry sanctions....

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

Taiwan makes all the semi-conductors that have caused the supply chain issues we are struggling with. They make something of value to the real rulers of the world, the major corporations. That's something we'd be ordered to fight for.

The problem is---What difference would fighting for them make when it comes to semi-conductors? The reality is that valuable industry infrastructure wouldnt survive a war for the tiny island nation. What we need to be doing is "on shoring" enough of that semi-conductor infrastructure to handle all US needs should Taiwan be removed from our supply chain. This move need to be ultra-fast tracked pronto.

And let's not kid ourselves, it's not like China is going to stop selling things to us if they take Taiwan. They want Taiwan for their economy

(02-21-2022 05:06 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 04:56 PM)hburg Wrote:  The west also has little will to fight. Russia takes parts of Ukraine and China take Taiwan. Taiwan I thought we had a war treaty with, but don't think USA will do anything to stop them, except cry sanctions....

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

Taiwan makes all the semi-conductors that have caused the supply chain issues we are struggling with. They make something of value to the real rulers of the world, the major corporations. That's something we'd be ordered to fight for.

That's a great point, Taiwan is more like Kuwait and semiconductors are the new oii. Our interest in Ukraine is not letting Russia run roughshod over other sovereign nations, not that there is any key resource we need to get from Kiev. I forget the number I saw, but it's a frighteningly large percentage of our semiconductors that we depend upon Taiwan for. Until we develop more domestic capacity for manufacturing semiconductors, we're not about to let that supply be cut off.

(02-21-2022 05:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 05:06 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 04:56 PM)hburg Wrote:  The west also has little will to fight. Russia takes parts of Ukraine and China take Taiwan. Taiwan I thought we had a war treaty with, but don't think USA will do anything to stop them, except cry sanctions....

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

Taiwan makes all the semi-conductors that have caused the supply chain issues we are struggling with. They make something of value to the real rulers of the world, the major corporations. That's something we'd be ordered to fight for.

The problem is---What difference would fighting for them make when it comes to semi-conductors? The reality is that valuable industry infrastructure wouldnt survive a war for the tiny island nation. What we need to be doing is "on shoring" enough of that semi-conductor infrastructure to handle all US needs should Taiwan be removed from our supply chain. This move need to be ultra-fast tracked pronto.

Another great point, they won't be making semiconductors anymore if China comes for them. I don't doubt that the PLA is more than capable of levelling that infrastructure whether we got involved or not. Fortunately there are plans underway to make semiconductors here, the Senate has passed a bill to help but the House hasn't yet. Speaker Pelosi should get this done NOW -

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/us-...-exclusive

(02-21-2022 05:16 PM)bobdizole Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 05:13 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 05:06 PM)49RFootballNow Wrote:  

(02-21-2022 04:56 PM)hburg Wrote:  The west also has little will to fight. Russia takes parts of Ukraine and China take Taiwan. Taiwan I thought we had a war treaty with, but don't think USA will do anything to stop them, except cry sanctions....

Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

Taiwan makes all the semi-conductors that have caused the supply chain issues we are struggling with. They make something of value to the real rulers of the world, the major corporations. That's something we'd be ordered to fight for.

The problem is---What difference would fighting for them make when it comes to semi-conductors? The reality is that valuable industry infrastructure wouldnt survive a war for the tiny island nation. What we need to be doing is "on shoring" enough of that semi-conductor infrastructure to handle all US needs should Taiwan be removed from our supply chain. This move need to be ultra-fast tracked pronto.

And let's not kid ourselves, it's not like China is going to stop selling things to us if they take Taiwan. They want Taiwan for their economy

How? Just because we dont fight for Taiwan doesnt mean that Taiwan wont fight. I dont see much production capacity surviving a war. Besides, relying on semi-conductors from China isnt any smarter than Germany relying on gas from Russia. Its not a great idea to rely on your enemies for anything important.