(06-24-2022 06:56 PM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 06:24 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  There will always be wiling options:
- Eastern Kentucky
- Tarleton St
- McNeese St
- North Carolina A&T

Even if you exhaust all those options, you can dumpster dive with a school like Central Arkansas who doesn’t belong in FBS but has publicly stated a desire.

That last sentence describes the first two on your list as well

The only thing Eastern Kentucky has going for it is a built in rivalry with Western Kentucky. Who knows if (for some reason) EKU gets invited and starts to do well they can partner with Western Kentucky and leave for the MAC. I'm sure WKU still wants out and is looking for someone to go with them.

(06-24-2022 06:59 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 06:12 PM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 06:05 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  CUSA might be smart going to 12 with Tarleton (WAC), EKU (ASUN) and Chattanooga (OVC) since they are acceptable fill-ins and put more pressure on other WAC, ASUN and OVC schools to consider moving up to get out of their situations.

12 might also help CUSA with its TV deal.

No question we are getting to the end of the line for viable FCS callups out of the south and to join CUSA. MWC could pull in the entire Big Sky and the Dakotas. SBC could pull the entire CUSA and Missouri St + EKU, Tarleton, SFA, Chattanooga if they needed them and they are already at 14 teams.

MWC and SBC have TV deals those from FCS would find quite attractive and willing to expand stadiums for. CUSA seems like its a hard pass unless a school is in the WAC, ASun or maybe OVC because of the instability.

They've already crossed that line

Maybe they can find a diamond in the rough like Coastal Carolina.

The rough usually has only one diamond unfortunately.

It’s called Liberty University. Unlike Coastal Carolina, Liberty has the money to compete in both revenue sports and I expect them to dominate C-USA 4.0 the way Boise State dominated the WAC. And basketball should be way better now that the deadweight is leaving. I’d put C-USA 4.0 basketball above the MAC and Sun Belt. Just UTEP and NMSU combined have more NCAA’s than the entire Sun Belt combined.

(06-24-2022 08:06 PM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 06:05 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  CUSA might be smart going to 12 with Tarleton (WAC), EKU (ASUN) and Chattanooga (OVC) since they are acceptable fill-ins and put more pressure on other WAC, ASUN and OVC schools to consider moving up to get out of their situations.

Chattanooga is in the SoCon, not the OVC. Also with the SoCon adding a $2 million exit fee, I'm not sure Chattanooga would leave for C-USA. Maybe SBC or MAC if offered (not likely), but I don't think they would for C-USA.

That is right. They are the Southern which is a tight conference so scratch that off the list. That exit fee is enough to dissuade at that level.

The reality is the only 15k/15k schools out there are EKU and Lamar. Tarleton is close and might be the only school that wants in that can get in at the moment.

Also if CUSA is going into Tennessee for more members it will probably need to offer at least 2 of them to feel like its a longer term move. MT goes and they add two Tennessee schools as replacements for example.

CUSA should survive the XII taking in two more programs but if something massive happens like a 20 team SEC all bets are off.

XII (Boise/USF)
MWC (UTEP)
AAC (FIU)

Leaves CUSA with 7 in this case with EKU in the back pocket.

The future might be a mix of non-FB schools like UTA, Little Rock and FGCU in CUSA to keep up its numbers. Its higher in the totem pole than WAC/ASUN and has a good brand for a widely dispersed conference.

(06-24-2022 08:16 PM)46566 Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 06:56 PM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 06:24 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  There will always be wiling options:
- Eastern Kentucky
- Tarleton St
- McNeese St
- North Carolina A&T

Even if you exhaust all those options, you can dumpster dive with a school like Central Arkansas who doesn’t belong in FBS but has publicly stated a desire.

That last sentence describes the first two on your list as well

The only thing Eastern Kentucky has going for it is a built in rivalry with Western Kentucky. Who knows if (for some reason) EKU gets invited and starts to do well they can partner with Western Kentucky and leave for the MAC. I'm sure WKU still wants out and is looking for someone to go with them.

Nobody is forcing WKU to stay. They can ask the MAC again. The question is, does the MAC want to expand just for the sake of expansion? Will they require a 20 year GOR? Apparently that’s the main reason MTSU decided to stay in C-USA. That and the exit fees and possible AAC membership down the road.

(06-24-2022 08:22 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  . And basketball should be way better now that the deadweight is leaving. I’d put C-USA 4.0 basketball above the MAC and Sun Belt.

I don't see how there could be any question about this. On average we've improved even compared to last year's CUSA. Much less the MAC or 'belt.

(06-24-2022 08:22 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 06:59 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 06:12 PM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 06:05 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  CUSA might be smart going to 12 with Tarleton (WAC), EKU (ASUN) and Chattanooga (OVC) since they are acceptable fill-ins and put more pressure on other WAC, ASUN and OVC schools to consider moving up to get out of their situations.

12 might also help CUSA with its TV deal.

No question we are getting to the end of the line for viable FCS callups out of the south and to join CUSA. MWC could pull in the entire Big Sky and the Dakotas. SBC could pull the entire CUSA and Missouri St + EKU, Tarleton, SFA, Chattanooga if they needed them and they are already at 14 teams.

MWC and SBC have TV deals those from FCS would find quite attractive and willing to expand stadiums for. CUSA seems like its a hard pass unless a school is in the WAC, ASun or maybe OVC because of the instability.

They've already crossed that line

Maybe they can find a diamond in the rough like Coastal Carolina.

The rough usually has only one diamond unfortunately.

It’s called Liberty University. Unlike Coastal Carolina, Liberty has the money to compete in both revenue sports and I expect them to dominate C-USA 4.0 the way Boise State dominated the WAC. And basketball should be way better now that the deadweight is leaving. I’d put C-USA 4.0 basketball above the MAC and Sun Belt. Just UTEP and NMSU combined have more NCAA’s than the entire Sun Belt combined.

I was talking about a diamond out of the deep, endless reservoir of FCS/DII call ups that will protect CUSA as an FBS conference forever.

I do agree in the 3-5 year outlook it could be better for CUSA than some expect because of the factors above. Maybe Liberty could make a NYD bowl.

But does the MAC see that and say gee with WKU/LU we could get a MWC sized TV deal when the contract is up and offer both? WKU we know takes a MAC offer in a heartbeat but Liberty might do so too for the stake of stability. SBC already has two in Virginia and the AAC wants metro universities only.

FIU could also be appealing to the AAC, SBC and MAC under the right scenario.

One of the problems is CUSA is a threat to lose members from any of the other 4 G5 conferences should there be some movement. SBC might lose a team to the AAC but they've got 30 potential in-fills.

(06-24-2022 08:26 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 08:16 PM)46566 Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 06:56 PM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 06:24 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  There will always be wiling options:
- Eastern Kentucky
- Tarleton St
- McNeese St
- North Carolina A&T

Even if you exhaust all those options, you can dumpster dive with a school like Central Arkansas who doesn’t belong in FBS but has publicly stated a desire.

That last sentence describes the first two on your list as well

The only thing Eastern Kentucky has going for it is a built in rivalry with Western Kentucky. Who knows if (for some reason) EKU gets invited and starts to do well they can partner with Western Kentucky and leave for the MAC. I'm sure WKU still wants out and is looking for someone to go with them.

Nobody is forcing WKU to stay. They can ask the MAC again. The question is, does the MAC want to expand just for the sake of expansion? Will they require a 20 year GOR? Apparently that’s the main reason MTSU decided to stay in C-USA. That and the exit fees and possible AAC membership down the road.

The GOR is supposed to be 15 years. The five remaining years on the MAC deal plus an extension of 10 years.

The MAC still has 5 years on its current deal and can sit on an addition for a couple of years if it so desires.

As the deal inches closer, the amount of years required for a GOR goes down and it becomes a more attractive offer.

(06-24-2022 08:32 PM)inutech Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 08:22 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  . And basketball should be way better now that the deadweight is leaving. I’d put C-USA 4.0 basketball above the MAC and Sun Belt.

I don't see how there could be any question about this. On average we've improved even compared to last year's CUSA. Much less the MAC or 'belt.

In the near term that may be true.

Wait until you get a couple of years under that new lineup and see.

(06-24-2022 08:36 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 08:22 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 06:59 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 06:12 PM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 06:05 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  CUSA might be smart going to 12 with Tarleton (WAC), EKU (ASUN) and Chattanooga (OVC) since they are acceptable fill-ins and put more pressure on other WAC, ASUN and OVC schools to consider moving up to get out of their situations.

12 might also help CUSA with its TV deal.

No question we are getting to the end of the line for viable FCS callups out of the south and to join CUSA. MWC could pull in the entire Big Sky and the Dakotas. SBC could pull the entire CUSA and Missouri St + EKU, Tarleton, SFA, Chattanooga if they needed them and they are already at 14 teams.

MWC and SBC have TV deals those from FCS would find quite attractive and willing to expand stadiums for. CUSA seems like its a hard pass unless a school is in the WAC, ASun or maybe OVC because of the instability.

They've already crossed that line

Maybe they can find a diamond in the rough like Coastal Carolina.

The rough usually has only one diamond unfortunately.

It’s called Liberty University. Unlike Coastal Carolina, Liberty has the money to compete in both revenue sports and I expect them to dominate C-USA 4.0 the way Boise State dominated the WAC. And basketball should be way better now that the deadweight is leaving. I’d put C-USA 4.0 basketball above the MAC and Sun Belt. Just UTEP and NMSU combined have more NCAA’s than the entire Sun Belt combined.

I was talking about a diamond out of the deep, endless reservoir of FCS/DII call ups that will protect CUSA as an FBS conference forever.

I do agree in the 3-5 year outlook it could be better for CUSA than some expect because of the factors above. Maybe Liberty could make a NYD bowl.

But does the MAC see that and say gee with WKU/LU we could get a MWC sized TV deal when the contract is up and offer both? WKU we know takes a MAC offer in a heartbeat but Liberty might do so too for the stake of stability. SBC already has two in Virginia and the AAC wants metro universities only.

FIU could also be appealing to the AAC, SBC and MAC under the right scenario.

One of the problems is CUSA is a threat to lose members from any of the other 4 G5 conferences should there be some movement. SBC might lose a team to the AAC but they've got 30 potential in-fills.

But on the timelines you're talking all of this can change.

Ten years ago any SB school takes a CUSA invite in a heartbeat (and a bunch did). Ten years ago CUSA only wanted metro universities (just as they had the previous ten) except that they took Tech and WKU.

So maybe the MAC loses whatever interest it ever had in expanding. Maybe the current CUSA becomes a multi bid basketball league and we limp by on those credits helping offset our TV deal. Maybe the Big 12 doesn't expand.

It's possible that all the things go wrong and none go right. But it's just as possible that the opposite happens (or more likely a mix).

Half the posts in this forum predict that the whole G5 is toast. So something drastic like that is possible. Or a half version of that where the G5 is left officially behind but reorganizes completely.

(06-24-2022 08:42 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 08:32 PM)inutech Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 08:22 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  . And basketball should be way better now that the deadweight is leaving. I’d put C-USA 4.0 basketball above the MAC and Sun Belt.

I don't see how there could be any question about this. On average we've improved even compared to last year's CUSA. Much less the MAC or 'belt.

In the near term that may be true.

Wait until you get a couple of years under that new lineup and see.

It's true that wins will be harder to come by in a smaller better league.

Comparing the amount of FCS/D2 call up inventory the SBC had to work with rebuilding in 2012 compared to what CUSA has in 2022 is like comparing the housing market inventory of 2012 to 2022.

There is basically no inventory available. In 2012 the SBC got rocked but had Texas St, Georgia St, App State and Georgia Southern right there. Couldn't attract JMU yet but found a unique situation in Coastal where a newer school had a backer to take them to FBS.

Even if CUSA could pull of a second bid to the NCAAT which is questionable that doesn't change the fact that EKU and Tarleton are the only FB schools that want it and are ready to join it.

Longer term it may become a hybrid FB-BB conference of 12 with 6 who play as FBS independents that can't find a home anywhere else. A future that looks a lot like the WAC or Atlantic Sun.

(06-24-2022 09:08 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  There is basically no inventory available.

This neither true nor a problem that exists right now.

(06-24-2022 09:19 PM)inutech Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 09:08 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  There is basically no inventory available.

This neither true nor a problem that exists right now.

When is more credible inventory going on the market? 10 years for a few more programs in the south to develop to the high FCS level?

Peak FCS has come and passed. The well is running dry.

I've got mixed feelings about FBS. But I don't think our stadium is what's stopping us. We could be tenants at Truist park until we can expand the bank.

I do think the stadium size is a symptom of us not yet developing a large fanbase and that's a good reason to not invite us. Football is young here and it's gonna take time to build a fanbase. I think CUSA would be early, but not wrong to invite us. As a fan, idk whether or not I'd want KSU to accept an invite.

Think about the potential inventory for the MWC and the stark contrast.

1) If the AAC takes a hit SMU could be on the menu.
2) NMSU and UTEP would sign on immediately without checking the ToS.
3) The entire Big Sky under any circumstance would move up.
4) Half the Big West would consider adding FB for it.
5) Also there are a LOT of big enrollment schools out west in DII.

The south by comparison has been stripped clean of move ups.

(06-24-2022 09:24 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 09:19 PM)inutech Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 09:08 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  There is basically no inventory available.

This neither true nor a problem that exists right now.

When is more credible inventory going on the market?

When's that going to matter?

(06-24-2022 09:33 PM)inutech Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 09:24 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 09:19 PM)inutech Wrote:  

(06-24-2022 09:08 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  There is basically no inventory available.

This neither true nor a problem that exists right now.

When is more credible inventory going on the market?

When's that going to matter?

Could be as soon as next spring when the XII decides to add more schools.

At the state CUSA is in right now that's all it takes.

(06-24-2022 08:23 PM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  XII (Boise/USF)
MWC (UTEP)
AAC (FIU)

If FIU ever makes it on the invite list, something has gone terribly wrong for the AAC's fortunes

When you don't have good expansion prospects in your southern footprint, you move the footprint.

I said a few months ago when CUSA was scrambling for survival that its best move strategically would have been to (1) work with FIU to put the Panthers on a path toward football-only membership, and then (2) push the conference footprint into the upper Midwest and Dakotas with additions from the MVFC.

The conference won't be able to carve out any kind of identity if it remains rooted in Texas and the Southeast, where multiple P5 and G5 conferences already hold sway. IMHO CUSA's best expansion prospects are schools like Missouri State, Indiana State, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, North Dakota State and South Dakota State. None of those may be willing to come alone but some may be willing to come as a group.

(06-24-2022 09:43 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  When you don't have good expansion prospects in your southern footprint, you move the footprint.

I said a few months ago when CUSA was scrambling for survival that its best move strategically would have been to (1) work with FIU to put the Panthers on a path toward football-only membership, and then (2) push the conference footprint into the upper Midwest and Dakotas with additions from the MVFC.

The conference won't be able to carve out any kind of identity if it remains rooted in Texas and the Southeast, where multiple P5 and G5 conferences already hold sway. IMHO CUSA's best expansion prospects are schools like Missouri State, Indiana State, Illinois State, Northern Iowa, North Dakota State and South Dakota State. None of those may be willing to come alone but some may be willing to come as a group.

I agree 105% with what you are saying.

if CUSA could have gone up the middle and built a bridge to the Dakotas with Central Oklahoma, Nebraska Omaha. Mo State they might have at least looked at CUSA for FB only. WKU/MT aren't too bad in that mix either with lower midwest locations.

Liberty has promise but they may be a big bag for the conference because they can't get into anywhere else. They have no rep in basketball and do not help the conference.

All these additions do for sure is keep CUSA ahead of WAC/ASUN and provide insurance to the NMSUs and Liberty's that it will at the very least be a FB scheduling arrangement if not a conference.