My assumption is every Pac 12 and Big 12 school is now calling the Big Ten (and probably the SEC). Who knows what Notre Dame is thinking right now?

Let's assume Notre Dame is off the table for now. I present two pairs, the Bay Area pair, California/Stanford and the Pacific Northwest pair, Oregon/Washington.

The options:
Big Ten takes nobody for now, stays at 16.
Big Ten takes Cal/Stanford for 18.
Big Ten takes Oregon/Washington for 18.
Big Ten takes all four for 20.
Other.

IDK what the next move is. What I do see is that USC/UCLA is the one move that both adds value to the BIG tv deal and takes leverage away from ND in realignment negotiations. Of the options, taking UW/UO would probably add more value over Stanford/Cal. UW/UO adds two new states for carrier fees, brings more t-shirt fans for streaming and brings Nike along as a major apparel partner.

If the BIG can get ND to swallow its pride and join, then maybe it should just poach all the schools it wants and go to 24. That would leave the SEC to grab whoever it wants out of what is left to also get to 24. Then the two conferences become the P2 and basically form their own sports division.

I'm surprised UCLA would break away from Cal. While the two schools may not be tied at the hip, they are part of one collegiate system and have long histories together. That said, I think Cal and Stanford will be up next for admission. It'll give B1G the State of California and will allow the Olympic sports to travel shorter distances.

I'm not so sure about Oregon and Washington. Isn't there more in-state athletic talent in Arizona? If that's the case, I'd take both Arizona schools to get to 20.

It's just a matter of time before Notre Dame joins the Big Ten now. Bank on that. If you eliminate divisions, you technically don't have to add another team - but you can't stay at 9 conference games (either the number of teams or the number of games must be even).

I am somewhat split on what I think happens. I could actually see this being it for now. USC and UCLA were announced on June 30th (one day before the new athletic year) for a reason. Anyone else giving notice now for 2024 is giving less than 2 years notice which does add issues (although not unfixable ones). My hope is this is it. This is a huge change that I already really dislike.

That said, the conference opened Pandora's box, greatly damaged the Rose Bowl and a traditional partner, became a coast to coast conference, has basically the entire PAC-12 asking to join, and needs to figure out its media contract soon. They are at at the point where, if they think there is a long term plan, the time to do most of it most easily is probably now.

With that in mind, as much as it surprise me to say, I think Notre Dame is very much on the table if they can get out of the grant of rights with the ACC. That contract is complex and I am not sure I believe all the reports on it. I actually hate to see them give up independence, but there is real concern that being outside the big 2 conferences at this point is going to be an issue, the Big Ten now has a large number of Irish rivals, and has a national feel. I think if there is a time for the Irish to swallow the bitter pill of giving up that part of their identity the time is probably now (looking at Notre Dame message boards, there seems much more support than I'd have guessed, even if some grudgingly).

If the Irish come, I think Stanford is in too. That gives a bay area school and might be the final carrot to get Notre Dame on board.

Going that far, I could see two more teams with the conference taking 2 of Washington, Oregon, and Cal. Cal would seem to be the odd man out, but the powers-that-be like the perceived academic profile of it a lot and that will hold some wait. That said, I would lean to Washington and Oregon slightly still.

Taking these steps one spot further, the conference would have to have divisions as every team would miss 9 of the other 19 even with a 10 game schedule. I would guess a format something like this:

1. Teams play a 10 game conference schedule. That's a lot and doesn't leave a lot out of conference, but is the cost of a super league.
2. You have four pods of 5 teams. The pods rotate every year or other year to form rotating divisions. You play all 9 other teams in your division and 1 from the other.
3. Every team gets one team locked from another pod to protect some other rivalries.

Pods would look something like this: (teams in parenthesis are locked opponents in another pod; teams without one listed could be locked with multiple different teams)

West Coast Pod
USC (Notre Dame)
UCLA
Stanford
Oregon
Washington

Western Midwest Pod
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Iowa
Minnesota
Northwestern (Illinois)

Central Pod
Michigan (Ohio State)
Notre Dame (USC)
Michigan State
Purdue (Indiana)
Illinois (Northwestern)

Eastern Pod
Ohio State (Michigan)
Penn State
Rutgers
Maryland
Indiana (Purdue)

I would prefer to rotate these around a bit and get Ohio State out of an eastern pod (they literally will only have Michigan and Indiana being traditional opponents in 1 out of 3 years), but I think this setup is fairly natural if we go to something like 20 teams.

If ND doesn't join this time around. I think we add Oregon and Washington to get to 18. Go to 10 conference games. Everyone plays 3 rivals annually and will be able to play everyone else every other year.

Hypothetical OSU Conference Schedule:
TTUN
Penn St.
Michigan St. or Rutgers
Maryland/Michigan St. or Rutgers
Indiana/Purdue
Illinois/Northwestern
Minnesota/Wisconsin
Iowa/Nebraska
Oregon/Washington
UCLA/USC

Just a thought, but if ND is #17 and they stop there, you can do a 2-7/7 schedule—2 permanent rivals and still see everyone else every other year.

I’ll bust out a spreadsheet and try to sort out the best way to do rivals but that’s probably the best financial model for the Big 10.

(07-03-2022 03:54 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Just a thought, but if ND is #17 and they stop there, you can do a 2-7/7 schedule—2 permanent rivals and still see everyone else every other year.

I’ll bust out a spreadsheet and try to sort out the best way to do rivals but that’s probably the best financial model for the Big 10.

That takes care of Michigan (Ohio State, Michigan State) and USC (Notre Dame, UCLA). Penn State would want Ohio State and OSU probably wouldn't mind PSU but both Maryland and Rutgers would want them and feel cheated if they didn't wind up with them. But FOX or any other broadcast partner would really want PSU/OSU as it is the 2nd biggest TV seller most years (last year UM/MSU beat it because PSU/OSU went head to head vs. the World Series and both Michigan schools were undefeated while Penn State sucked). You could give Penn State Ohio State and Maryland and give Rutgers Notre Dame as a consolation prize but then did Notre Dame come to the Big Ten to play Rutgers every year? It does give them a game in the New York area every other year though. I mean they're not getting any of the Big Three, who else would they want?

(07-08-2022 01:22 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(07-03-2022 03:54 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Just a thought, but if ND is #17 and they stop there, you can do a 2-7/7 schedule—2 permanent rivals and still see everyone else every other year.

I’ll bust out a spreadsheet and try to sort out the best way to do rivals but that’s probably the best financial model for the Big 10.

That takes care of Michigan (Ohio State, Michigan State) and USC (Notre Dame, UCLA). Penn State would want Ohio State and OSU probably wouldn't mind PSU but both Maryland and Rutgers would want them and feel cheated if they didn't wind up with them. But FOX or any other broadcast partner would really want PSU/OSU as it is the 2nd biggest TV seller most years (last year UM/MSU beat it because PSU/OSU went head to head vs. the World Series and both Michigan schools were undefeated while Penn State sucked). You could give Penn State Ohio State and Maryland and give Rutgers Notre Dame as a consolation prize but then did Notre Dame come to the Big Ten to play Rutgers every year? It does give them a game in the New York area every other year though. I mean they're not getting any of the Big Three, who else would they want?

I think most Maryland fans would want Penn State and Rutgers and would be upset if Penn State was not on Maryland's schedule every year.

(07-09-2022 01:01 AM)NJ2MDTerp Wrote:  I think most Maryland fans would want Penn State and Rutgers and would be upset if Penn State was not on Maryland's schedule every year.

Penn State's a given. Little surprised Maryland would want Rutgers, they don't have that much of a history. It certainly helps both schools geographically and they do have the bond of being new members. I'd have to believe Maryland and Rutgers will likely be paired up in most cases because they are both new and very few other members would have them high on their priority list. If the Big Ten has 3 or more permanent rivals, I'd bet the farm Penn State's would be Ohio State, Maryland, and Rutgers, it's best for Penn State to minimize travel and best for both Maryland and Rutgers to minimize travel and have a big time opponent coming to each stadium with PSU fans willing to travel there.

I really, really hope they go south with Georgia Tech, Florida State and Miami. The Ohio State University has an ENORMOUS amount of alumni there and I can feel them pushing hard for this. The only location missing would be Texas, but the SEC has absorbed that area with really great additions of Texas and A&M.

It would be interesting to see value? Did this get posted and I overlooked it? I know there was info on Oregon and Washington being ~40 mil. under value needed? Crazy! But I'd love to know the value of Miami, FSU and Georgia Tech as a group. Is there any way they are valued at 300 million a year? Money sucks!!!

(07-09-2022 06:32 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(07-09-2022 01:01 AM)NJ2MDTerp Wrote:  I think most Maryland fans would want Penn State and Rutgers and would be upset if Penn State was not on Maryland's schedule every year.

Penn State's a given. Little surprised Maryland would want Rutgers, they don't have that much of a history. It certainly helps both schools geographically and they do have the bond of being new members. I'd have to believe Maryland and Rutgers will likely be paired up in most cases because they are both new and very few other members would have them high on their priority list. If the Big Ten has 3 or more permanent rivals, I'd bet the farm Penn State's would be Ohio State, Maryland, and Rutgers, it's best for Penn State to minimize travel and best for both Maryland and Rutgers to minimize travel and have a big time opponent coming to each stadium with PSU fans willing to travel there.

Rutgers and Maryland get paired together not because of any intense rivalry but just so 2 others aren’t stuck playing one of them.

ND would probably be ok with USC and Rutgers for rivals—it would mean playing in the NYC market in even years and LA in odd which helps their “national” image.

(07-03-2022 03:54 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Just a thought, but if ND is #17 and they stop there, you can do a 2-7/7 schedule—2 permanent rivals and still see everyone else every other year.

I’ll bust out a spreadsheet and try to sort out the best way to do rivals but that’s probably the best financial model for the Big 10.

I'll be the Debbie-downer with the reminder that 9 conference games does not split evenly among an odd number of teams. I think they could "figure it out". Maybe Stanford goes independent with a 5 game commitment to the Big Ten, evening things out.

Outside of Oregon and Washington, there's no value there. The new B1G TV deal is expected to approach $1B. A billion-dollar deal would be massive and account for roughly $71 million per school. The SEC paid their schools ~$55M. Maybe it's time to look South.

Who would jump (if any) to the B1G: Florida? Georgia? Auburn? LSU? A&M? Missouri?

Anything's possible. Conference loyalty is a thing of the past.

I definitely believe Missouri would jump to B1G in an instant if they were offered. I think that is what they preferred all along.

I also think Kevin Warren's phone has plenty calls coming in from all over, probably even southeast part of country.

I've gone to games in several conferences-- of course B1G but plenty in Big East, ACC, SEC and I think that it's somewhat obvious of what schools culture fit together and which ones not so much. Once the dust settles on some of all this realignment, I think schools will choose based on best overall fit and future conference changes won't only be about money as that will balance itself out once networks finalize tiers.

Notre Dame and Pitt.

(06-30-2022 09:40 PM)schmolik Wrote:  My assumption is every Pac 12 and Big 12 school is now calling the Big Ten (and probably the SEC). Who knows what Notre Dame is thinking right now?

Let's assume Notre Dame is off the table for now. I present two pairs, the Bay Area pair, California/Stanford and the Pacific Northwest pair, Oregon/Washington.

The options:
Big Ten takes nobody for now, stays at 16.
Big Ten takes Cal/Stanford for 18.
Big Ten takes Oregon/Washington for 18.
Big Ten takes all four for 20.
Other.

None of the above. I've never been interested in West Coast football. Even taking USC (their premier brand), I can only think of a couple of seasons in the past 40 years in which I was interesting in watching them save the Rose Bowl.

Notre Damn and Cincinnati

(07-10-2022 01:48 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(07-03-2022 03:54 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Just a thought, but if ND is #17 and they stop there, you can do a 2-7/7 schedule—2 permanent rivals and still see everyone else every other year.

I’ll bust out a spreadsheet and try to sort out the best way to do rivals but that’s probably the best financial model for the Big 10.

I'll be the Debbie-downer with the reminder that 9 conference games does not split evenly among an odd number of teams. I think they could "figure it out". Maybe Stanford goes independent with a 5 game commitment to the Big Ten, evening things out.

Ideally, with 17 teams, I would go with 4 protected rivalries and then go to 10 conference games playing everyone else every other year, but could play 8 conference games and still play everyone else twice every 6 years.

Based upon the poll, if we're asking which 2 schools from the PAC should be invited, then:

Stanford and Arizona State.