(07-06-2022 03:31 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If find it very surprising there has been NOTHING on Stanford and Cal and where their heads are at.

Since the geography barrier has been broken, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the ACC scooped up Cal and Stanford to mimic the Big 10 model. If ESPN is willing to make it worthwhile that would be a move the ACC could make to increase revenue

Only works if ND came in. Still, that's three additional schools. Would they have a go at it with 17 or is their another school out there that can pull in revenue for 18?

(07-06-2022 03:38 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 03:31 PM)solohawks Wrote:  If find it very surprising there has been NOTHING on Stanford and Cal and where their heads are at.

Since the geography barrier has been broken, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the ACC scooped up Cal and Stanford to mimic the Big 10 model. If ESPN is willing to make it worthwhile that would be a move the ACC could make to increase revenue

Only works if ND came in. Still, that's three additional schools. Would they have a go at it with 17 or is their another school out there that can pull in revenue for 18?

I'm thinking if you add Cal and Stanford you can guarantee Notre Dame still has 2 CA games a year and can end the season in CA like they want to do. If you do that you can up the ND commitment from 5 to 7 games a year. Not forcing full membership is a carrot the ACC will offer that the Big 10 won't. Getting into CA plus a guarantee of 1 more ACC controlled Notre Dame game won't equal Big 10 money put gets them closer to where they would be if they stood still.

I'm sure ND and USC will both want to continue their long term series, but its highly unlikely the Big 10 will allow it to be a late season game. If anything it will become a September game. The ACC helping solve the Big 10's looming California problem is something they can offer a Notre Dame that wants to maintain indepedence.

(07-06-2022 03:14 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 03:01 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 02:55 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The "Pac-10" is solid for now. The Irish are on hold for a couple years (makes sense to me, as 2026 would work way better for them than 2024 -- fewer contractual complications, more time to win over alumni to joining a football conference).

If the "Pac-10" expands, it will be because they identified schools that bring more than $30M (each) and are institutionally acceptable to the membership. The only realistic possibilities for that are Big 12 schools (in 2025), or those bound for the Big 12 (2023). Houston and BYU might be easier to pry loose, since they wont have any exit penalty from the Big 12, having not yet joined (I am not sure if any exit penalty still exists or if it was replaced with GOR; the old Big 12 penalty was two years distributions, but they settled for half that or less with the schools that left). Also note, the Pac-12 might get some exit penalty from UCLA and USC under the old pre-GOR fees, which would allow them to pay entering schools at a reduced rate (but still substantial) until the new contract kicked in. But nobody is talking about exit fees of Texas and Oklahoma, let alone USC and UCLA; so maybe GOR replaced the exit fee.

While Wilner is not necessarily wrong, his job status is closely tied to the health of the PAC10. He was pushing additions of MWC schools a few days ago, and then tweets that UO WU fall short in the number crunching department of the B1G? Did he check the numbers for SDSU and Fresno St? I can't take an insider like that seriously.

???

The guy freaking broke the USC/UCLA to Big Ten story!!! This was something that absolutely NO ONE knew about until a few hours before it was announced!!!

If you're saying that you can't trust Wilner (of all people) as an insider on Pac-12 matters when he just broke the most inside story in the modern history of conference realignment (and one that is completely devastating to the Pac-12 if the argument is that he is somehow incentivized to protect the conference in order to protect his job), then what exactly is the standard for being able to trust any particular reporter here?

Never ever fire off a half-ass tweet that I disagree with.

(07-06-2022 02:16 PM)Huan Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 02:09 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  Pac-12 rallies behind scenes

3. Any potential university (Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, etc.) that might be added to the Pac-12 needs to bring more than $30 million in annual media revenue value (or take a steep discount) for the numbers to work. Notre Dame, for example, works. It’s why the Big Ten is so busy chasing the Irish. Boise State? Probably not, unless it takes a deeply discounted cut. There are only 517,000 television homes in Idaho. Currently, Boise State is getting $4 million a year from CBS and FS1 as part of their contract with the Mountain West Conference. “They probably deserve more than that for what they bring to the MWC,” Thompson said, “but I’d have a hard time ascribing much more than $8 million if they were to join the Pac-12.”

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-or...wish?sd=pf

LOL.
Just curious as to what program available fits this standard.

If they can still get $30M per school at 10 schools, why do they need to add schools at all? I don't see the B12 getting that much without Texas and OU, so if you accept that the B1G and SEC are just on a different level financially, what difference would it make to them?

(07-06-2022 03:55 PM)UpStreamRedTeam Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 02:16 PM)Huan Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 02:09 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  Pac-12 rallies behind scenes

3. Any potential university (Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, etc.) that might be added to the Pac-12 needs to bring more than $30 million in annual media revenue value (or take a steep discount) for the numbers to work. Notre Dame, for example, works. It’s why the Big Ten is so busy chasing the Irish. Boise State? Probably not, unless it takes a deeply discounted cut. There are only 517,000 television homes in Idaho. Currently, Boise State is getting $4 million a year from CBS and FS1 as part of their contract with the Mountain West Conference. “They probably deserve more than that for what they bring to the MWC,” Thompson said, “but I’d have a hard time ascribing much more than $8 million if they were to join the Pac-12.”

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-or...wish?sd=pf

LOL.
Just curious as to what program available fits this standard.

If they can still get $30M per school at 10 schools, why do they need to add schools at all? I don't see the B12 getting that much without Texas and OU, so if you accept that the B1G and SEC are just on a different level financially, what difference would it make to them?

the PAC has authorized evaluation for expansion, with the bar set at #30M. who are they looking to get?

I'm slowly starting to foresee the Pac-12 raiding the Big 12.

Excluding their religious affiliation, would BYU fit the bill? Could BYU bring in $30M+?

(07-06-2022 03:14 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 03:01 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 02:55 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The "Pac-10" is solid for now. The Irish are on hold for a couple years (makes sense to me, as 2026 would work way better for them than 2024 -- fewer contractual complications, more time to win over alumni to joining a football conference).

If the "Pac-10" expands, it will be because they identified schools that bring more than $30M (each) and are institutionally acceptable to the membership. The only realistic possibilities for that are Big 12 schools (in 2025), or those bound for the Big 12 (2023). Houston and BYU might be easier to pry loose, since they wont have any exit penalty from the Big 12, having not yet joined (I am not sure if any exit penalty still exists or if it was replaced with GOR; the old Big 12 penalty was two years distributions, but they settled for half that or less with the schools that left). Also note, the Pac-12 might get some exit penalty from UCLA and USC under the old pre-GOR fees, which would allow them to pay entering schools at a reduced rate (but still substantial) until the new contract kicked in. But nobody is talking about exit fees of Texas and Oklahoma, let alone USC and UCLA; so maybe GOR replaced the exit fee.

While Wilner is not necessarily wrong, his job status is closely tied to the health of the PAC10. He was pushing additions of MWC schools a few days ago, and then tweets that UO WU fall short in the number crunching department of the B1G? Did he check the numbers for SDSU and Fresno St?[b] I can't take an insider like that seriously.[/b]

???

The guy freaking broke the USC/UCLA to Big Ten story!!! This was something that absolutely NO ONE knew about until a few hours before it was announced!!!

If you're saying that you can't trust Wilner (of all people) as an insider on Pac-12 matters when he just broke the most inside story in the modern history of conference realignment (and one that is completely devastating to the Pac-12 if the argument is that he is somehow incentivized to protect the conference in order to protect his job), then what exactly is the standard for being able to trust any particular reporter here?

LOL! Wilner was Football Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 and has won awards for his feature stories. He is one of the best out there. He will always have a job covering Bay Area college sports. If Oregon and Washington leave the PAC, it will be for the Big Ten or SEC. If you are going to have a fight with the politicians in Oregon and Washington over leaving Oregon State and Washington State behind, it is better to have that fight with a Big Ten/SEC invite in your hand. A Big 12 invite, which they could get in a New York minute, would be much more difficult to explain.

(07-06-2022 04:11 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Excluding their religious affiliation, would BYU fit the bill? Could BYU bring in $30M+?

I think if anyone clearly fit the bill, they would have been added to the Pac-12 or ACC last year.

Wilner's actual column (which was way more pessimistic about the value of any MWC schools being added to the Pac-12 compared to his Tweets) did provide an option that you'd probably find interesting: Gonzaga to the Pac-12 as a non-football member. That obviously isn't doing anything for the major football portion of the contract, but they would at least be revenue accretive for the basketball portion of the league finances.

The $30M number is really just a starting point for the remaining Pac-10. I don’t think it is a commitment to stay at 10. Access to certain markets (Texas, SoCal) have additional value. SDSU may not be worth $30M in the MW, but may in the Pac-12.

I don’t think the $30 is a “real” number either. Networks have had little time to sit down with the conference brass and go over financials. Payouts may end up being $45M… if the “right” schools are added.

BYU adds the most value of any “available” team. Just unsure if the power dynamic allows for an invitation to go their way. Pac-10 may be in a beggars rather than choosers situation.

What is BYUs exit fee? They lose out on their 23' and 24' money due to Big 12 GoR or are they not obliged by that?

The only chance SDSU and BSU have is to come in at 0.5x for the first half of the next PAC10 contract. Or maybe the full length of it.

(07-06-2022 04:20 PM)Crayton Wrote:  The $30M number is really just a starting point for the remaining Pac-10. I don’t think it is a commitment to stay at 10. Access to certain markets (Texas, SoCal) have additional value. SDSU may not be worth $30M in the MW, but may in the Pac-12.

I don’t think the $30 is a “real” number either. Networks have had little time to sit down with the conference brass and go over financials. Payouts may end up being $45M… if the “right” schools are added.

BYU adds the most value of any “available” team. Just unsure if the power dynamic allows for an invitation to go their way. Pac-10 may be in a beggars rather than choosers situation.

I think SDSU is a good example of this. In the MW they're certainly not worth $30 million because of the overall media deal value and overall value of the conference. In the PAC they would provide extra value simply by allowing the PAC to maintain a presence in SoCal that they otherwise would not have. While it wouldn't be USC or UCLA, they'd still be playing all the familiar PAC schools and would be able to garner more interest in games in the region than if there were no one present at all there.

Not to say that they are worth that much, just that in the PAC they'd be worth some TBD value more than in the MWC.

(07-06-2022 04:28 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  What is BYUs exit fee? They lose out on their 23' and 24' money due to Big 12 GoR or are they not obliged by that?

The only chance SDSU and BSU have is to come in at 0.5x for the first half of the next PAC10 contract. Or maybe the full length of it.

That's a no brainer absolutely yes if I'm a MWC school

...I guess my only question is why would a current 'P5' school move from another conference into the PAC, unless there's a LOT better media deal in the works we aren't aware, of, like TRIPLE the income what they have now... without USC/UCLA, not sure how they even 'hold steady' with their current income levels...

I mean, just a few months ago the reports of the PAC-networks were a total failure and about to be killed off... what would change with no new teams and minus the top program (USC) and at least a top 3rd of the conference program (UCLA)?

Maybe Knight, Apple, and some other big players on the coast will throw gobs of money to keep the PAC intact, but... that seems a bit extreme...

(07-06-2022 02:09 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  Pac-12 rallies behind scenes

1. Arizona, ASU, Utah and Colorado were reported late last week to be leaning into a possible contingency escape to the Big 12 themselves, but I’m told by a high-ranking official at one of those universities to pump the brakes on that speculation. “There is no meeting on the books for us with the Big 12,” the source said, “and George is kicking ass.”

2. Former Fox Sports Network president Bob Thompson told me last week that he estimated the Pac-12’s next media rights contract would command $500 million a year before the defection. With the Los Angeles’ television market gone, Thompson says the Pac-12’s media value is reduced to $300 million a year. That appears to be a 40-percent wholesale discount. But it pencils out to a 28 percent reduction, per university, given that the $300 million would now be split only 10 ways ($30 million each) vs. $500 million being split 12 ways ($41.6 million each).


3. Any potential university (Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, etc.) that might be added to the Pac-12 needs to bring more than $30 million in annual media revenue value (or take a steep discount) for the numbers to work. Notre Dame, for example, works. It’s why the Big Ten is so busy chasing the Irish. Boise State? Probably not, unless it takes a deeply discounted cut. There are only 517,000 television homes in Idaho. Currently, Boise State is getting $4 million a year from CBS and FS1 as part of their contract with the Mountain West Conference. “They probably deserve more than that for what they bring to the MWC,” Thompson said, “but I’d have a hard time ascribing much more than $8 million if they were to join the Pac-12.”

4. Pac-12 issued a statement on Tuesday morning, indicating that its board had authorized the conference to “immediately” begin negotiations for the next media rights agreement. Sounds like the Pac-12 already has a media partner (ESPN? Apple?) and is ready to move forward with a new plan. My hunch is the Pac-12 accelerated the negotiation because it has some specific additional conference additions (from the Big 12? ACC?) in mind.


5. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown may throw a wrinkle into the UO plans. There’s been some speculation that she might step in and attempt to force the Ducks to stay in lockstep with Oregon State. Some lawmakers in Washington have indicated they’d do the same on Washington State’s behalf.


6. A source at UCLA told me that the discussions with the Big Ten got intense about eight weeks ago. Also, I’m told that USC and UCLA didn’t communicate with each other about their Pac-12 departures until “the 11th hour” when Bruins’ AD Martin Jarmond and Trojans’ AD Mike Bohn got on the phone together. Said one source, “I can’t believe this didn’t get leaked.”



https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-or...wish?sd=pf

Number 2, Bob Thompson do not know the Boise's tv market which is 1 million at least which over 700,000 is in the metro of Boise, and they do get more viewers nationally. This guy is a complete idiot who under value schools way too much.

(07-06-2022 04:29 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 04:28 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  What is BYUs exit fee? They lose out on their 23' and 24' money due to Big 12 GoR or are they not obliged by that?

The only chance SDSU and BSU have is to come in at 0.5x for the first half of the next PAC10 contract. Or maybe the full length of it.

That's a no brainer absolutely yes if I'm a MWC school

Still, it's not enough to justify that pay raise (and cut for legacy members).

I don't believe BYU is a realistic candidate not because of religious affiliations but because it will not be possible to pry them from the Big 12. The most recent example is TCU jumping from the Big East to the Big 12 prior to playing a single Big East conference game. BYU might have a similar argument but they are not coming in at half price or other "Ego 4" mandated concessions.

BYU BSU is the best football package. BYU SDSU is the best overall package. Gonzaga is fine and great, but only a cherry on top of the worthwhile football additions.

Exit fee exit fee exit fee......... that needs to be the next phrase out of anyone talking about PAC raiding Big 12. So where you gonna get the extra $80 million per team, on the backs of only Washington and Oregon? Numbers just don't work. If Oregon and washington stay, it will be staying at 10 or bringing in MWC teams.

(07-06-2022 04:00 PM)Huan Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 03:55 PM)UpStreamRedTeam Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 02:16 PM)Huan Wrote:  

(07-06-2022 02:09 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  Pac-12 rallies behind scenes

3. Any potential university (Boise State, Fresno State, San Diego State, etc.) that might be added to the Pac-12 needs to bring more than $30 million in annual media revenue value (or take a steep discount) for the numbers to work. Notre Dame, for example, works. It’s why the Big Ten is so busy chasing the Irish. Boise State? Probably not, unless it takes a deeply discounted cut. There are only 517,000 television homes in Idaho. Currently, Boise State is getting $4 million a year from CBS and FS1 as part of their contract with the Mountain West Conference. “They probably deserve more than that for what they bring to the MWC,” Thompson said, “but I’d have a hard time ascribing much more than $8 million if they were to join the Pac-12.”

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-or...wish?sd=pf

LOL.
Just curious as to what program available fits this standard.

If they can still get $30M per school at 10 schools, why do they need to add schools at all? I don't see the B12 getting that much without Texas and OU, so if you accept that the B1G and SEC are just on a different level financially, what difference would it make to them?

the PAC has authorized evaluation for expansion, with the bar set at #30M. who are they looking to get?

I have no inside knowledge whatsoever, but I would guess they would look at Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas and OSU, and maybe Houston and BYU. They had the same opportunity last summer, except they were working from a much better position and decided not to move forward. If the bar over the summer was $42M, but is no down to $30M maybe those teams I mentioned fall into that category now, but who knows.

I don’t know what’s the greatest part of this thread - RUScarlets claiming the guy who broke the USC/UCLA news shouldn’t be taken seriously or DavidSt calling the former Fox Sports President an idiot who doesn’t know how to value schools like Boise St.

So what is the media number for the new Big 12? About $15M-$25M each?

If the PAC were to lose 2 more to the Big Ten, the remaining 8 PAC teams might be down to the same dollar amount.