(07-08-2022 10:29 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote: (07-08-2022 10:18 AM)esayem Wrote: (07-08-2022 08:35 AM)GTFletch Wrote: No one is leaving the ACC. I bet ND even stays! ESPN has a plan! SEC, ACC, PAC will all be inventory!
Well, getting the tournament out of the NCAA's hands is probably the only thing that would add enough value to keep the majority of the ACC together in some form or fashion. Whether that be a division under the SEC super umbrella or as a stand alone "conference".
I really don't know how I feel about that at this point. If there are only ~100 teams vying for 64 slots, the product is going to be pretty lame.
That should've been done years ago. Now the SEC and B1G know they are in control and may decide to hold off on doing that until all of the basketball blue bloods are also under their control.
Really, you could say the whole story of the ACC is "things which should've been done years ago, but weren't"
Mark, everyone needs to take a deep breath, wipe their minds, and look at this from the networks angle if anyone is going to understand what is happening and why.
Impetus for the change:
College football is broken for uncontrollable and obvious reasons. 22 of the last 25 championships have been won by schools in the Deep South. The rest of the nation has either tuned out because their schools are not a factor (The PAC 12) or they are tuning in less (Big 10 and the non Deep South ACC), or only some have big followings but only for a few hopefuls (Big Ten). The networks know this and want to do something about it because they can't change the fact that high school football remains a participation sport in the SE and SW while it has declined or is declining everywhere else. So FOX and ESPN are not only worried about college football's future but also that of the bonanza that feeds from it (the NFL). No network wants to give up the NFL but only two regions, an area of Southern California, Ohio and Pennsylvania still produce a lot of high school talent and have decent participation at the high school level.
Solution (which likely will prolong, not save football):
The top schools need access to more players. If you can't produce more players, you can divide the ones which exist among fewer top tier schools by shrinking that number to adapt to the supply. This gives us the need to shrink the P5.
No network has it in for a conference. They are just trying to preserve the sport. And what is this sports most successful model? The NFL. How and why does it work? It reaches all important markets, and it sustains itself with those while offering iconic brands for the bandwagon fan.
So what are ESPN and FOX paying for?
A structural change which preserves market reach, highlights brands, and gets fans to buy back in because regional divisions will provide each major market region a local school in an orderly playoff where participants play their way in instead of being selected.
Therefore, your obstacle now is competitiveness. NIL, Pay for play and a reduced number of schools means the current Deep South and Southwest will spread players around more which makes it more competitive and negates some of the domination that demographics have given to just 2 regions.
Why is the Big Ten and SEC paid so much more?
The networks know that the most watched games are when B1G brands play SEC brands. How do you make that work for the PAC and ACC? You relabel them as Big Ten and SEC and make all games essentially a regional rival (regular season) a competition for your league title (playoff) and the championship (which works most profitably for networks when the championship isn't between 2 schools 300 miles apart). So League Big 10 produces a champion who plays League SEC's champ. The college Superbowl which is by structure going to draw national attention and therefore massive revenue dwarfed only by that of the playoffs which created it.
The networks will not be paying for the individual value of each school. The system will be a closed one like the NFL. 48 schools is the oft cited number it could as easily be 32 or 56, but it will absolutely be less than 65. Anyway, the networks are paying 100 million plus to each school because they are buying the regular season, the playoffs and championship for all 48 or 56 schools. Which is about equal to the combined values of the P5's existing contracts. The cost to them will be the slightly more they will pay to those not making the jump in order to eliminate financial damages for remainders of contracts and bowl money for them.
To Pitt and Cuse fans I would say it's not about your value, it's about market reach and branding. You have a decent shot, better than most of you think, at inclusion. 3rd and 4th schools from a state less so, unless you have a massive brand. Yes, this is about football, but it will soon be about hoops as well.
We are all being transformed. And those who make it will be getting the most level playing field you've had in generations, and it should be a good thing. A very different thing to be sure, but a lot more competitive.