(07-22-2022 05:16 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(07-21-2022 12:24 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  

(07-20-2022 10:54 PM)Big 12 fan too Wrote:  

(07-20-2022 02:39 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  SEC: Same 16 teams. It’s already a super conference with UT and OU.

BIG: 20 teams including
Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, MSU, Notre Dame, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, USC, UCLA, Stanford, FSU, GT

What is the rationale for FSU (and GT) getting to the BIG without the SEC getting anything and the ACC not losing anymore despite now being less valuable?

like, how does that get executed? Or is this a 2037 forecast?

The SEC is complete with 16 because there is no one out there that can increase the SEC’s payout.

The next target schools have to generate more viewers/revenue than the average SEC school. That would be A&M/Tenn in terms of football viewership. (Bama, GA, FL, LSU, Auburn, UT and OU are ahead of them and the others are behind them).

Let’s see which ACC/Pac/B12 schools are clearly better than A&M and Tenn? I don’t see any. Clemson and FSU may be similar but not clearly better. Why would the ESPN/SEC need to add two more average schools (for the SEC standard) that are located in their territory?

The BIG is different. They are clearly more market driven than the SEC. The ESPN is a nationwide network but the BTN is not. It’s beneficial for the BIG if the BIG adds a team in a major markek and local cable companies in that major market start carrying the BTN.

From another posting of mine (https://csnbbs.com/thread-950295.html):

Below is the media market ranking.
(https://newsgeneration.com/broadcast-res...o-markets/)

1 New York, NY
2 Los Angeles, CA
3 Chicago, IL
4 Philadelphia, PA
5 Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX
6 San Francisco-Oak-San Jose
7 Atlanta
8 Houston, TX
9 Washington (Hagerstown), DC-MD
10 Boston (Manchester)
11 Phoenix (Prescott)
12 Seattle-Tacoma
13 Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota)
14 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
15 Detroit, MI
16 Denver, CO
17 Orlando-Daytona Beach-Melbourne, FL
18 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL
19 Cleveland-Akron (Canton), OH
20 Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto, CA
21 Portland, OR
22 Charlotte, NC
23 St. Louis, MO
24 Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville), NC
25 Indianapolis, IN

With USC/UCLA on board, the BIG will have foothold in #1,#2, #3, #4 and #9. They could have gotten #5 and #8 if UT headed to the BIG. If ND decides to join, then Stanford would be the obvious media pick for #6 market.

If the ACC schools are available, UNC, UVa, and Duke are not good candidates at least for the BTN cable. The BIG already has the cable provider for the Washington DC area, which is the UVa’s biggest market. UVa/Duke’s market would be #22 and #24 and it was reported that #12 seattle market might not be enough for the BIG to invite UW.

I would say the better candidates are actually GT with #7 Atlanta market and Florida school for #13, #17, and #18 media market

There’s a lot of rationale behind that strategy.

ND, FSU, Miami, and GT make a lot of sense and I think having a foot in those 3 big FL markets (plus Jacksonville) is better than adding Stanford, who doesn’t actually own the Bay market.

Miami might be better than FSU.

ND may be able to get out of the ACC before other ACC schools. If BIG wants to add ND right away and Stanford is available, I don’t think the BIG would wait for other ACC schools.

(07-22-2022 05:13 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

(07-19-2022 09:09 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  

So about my P2 (technically P3) scenario, here's how it might go down.

The Pac-12, though down to 10, retains the Pac-12 name (similar to the Big 12 in 2011) and signs a GOR that extends to 2036, the same year the current ACC GOR expires. UCLA and USC join the Big Ten, and OUT join the SEC. Stability reigns among the P5, despite much scoffing at the idea of equality between the "P2" and the "p3".

As we approach 2036, the Big Ten and SEC prepare for expansion once again. This time, the Big Ten is first to strike -- in a surprise move, they secure UNC, Duke, and UVA, shattering the tenuous ceasefire and sending the other ACC schools into a frenzied panic. The SEC, somewhat chagrined at losing out on UNC and UVA, opts to invite their more football-focused sister institutions, NCSU and VT, as part of an extensive harvest of ACC schools.

To prevent the very real threat of the Big Ten penetrating even further into the South, the SEC also invites Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Miami. Finally, to complete their "coup de grace", the SEC tops off its basketball chops with Louisville and Kansas, the latter having long looked to the Big Ten for salvation, to no avail.

With the ACC gutted, Notre Dame enters into serious negotiations with the Big Ten. As part of the terms of ND's joining as a full member, Stanford must also be invited, to which no one in the Big Ten really objects. The Big Ten is now at 21 members and already inclined to expand its west coast holdings and (incidentally) match the SEC in size. Cal, Oregon, and Washington also get the nod, bringing the P2 to 24 members each.

Despite entreaties from the schools left behind in the "p3", the Big Ten and SEC are now sated. The Big 12 emerges as the most unscathed of the 3, having lost just one of its 12 members. The Pac-12 is now a "Pac-6", and the ACC is down to just 4. Rather than turning on each other or separately restocking from the G5, in attempt to approach the dominance of the P2 the 3 conferences seek to pool their resources.

A new continent-bestriding colossus is created, an umbrella league under which the three conferences act as largely autonomous 8-member divisions. Each division has its own leadership but all 3 work together for the purposes of NCAA governance, media deals, etc. Members are shuffled about in a geographic manner, and 3 lucky schools are raptured away from the G5 to even out the numbers in each new division.

The ACC becomes the Atlantic Division and adds Cincinnati, WVU, UCF, and USF; the Pac becomes the Pacific Division and adds BYU and SDSU; and the Big 12 becomes the Central Division and adds Memphis. This new "Big 24" is undoubtedly the least of the 3 remaining power conferences in terms of overall program value and athletic strength, but the Big Ten and SEC are happy to include the league as an equal of sorts, mainly to avoid antitrust lawsuits. And thus the new P3 was born.

This scenario makes sense. Nicely done.

B1G ............. SEC
Cal .............. Alabama
Duke ........... Arkansas
Illinois ......... Auburn
Indiana ....... Clemson
Iowa ........... Florida
Kansas ........ Florida State
Maryland ..... Georgia
Michigan ...... Georgia Tech
Mich State .... Kentucky
Minnesota ..... LSU
Missouri ........ Miami
Nebraska ...... Miss. State
N'western ...... North Carolina
Notre Dame ... NC State
Ohio State ..... Oklahoma
Oregon .......... Ole Miss
Penn State ..... South Carolina
Purdue .......... Tennessee
Rutgers ......... Texas
Stanford ........ Texas A&M
UCLA ............ Vanderbilt
USC ............. Virginia
Washington ... Virginia Tech
Wisconsin ..... West Virginia

Correct me if I’m off base here, but there really ain’t much value to Duke unless they are paired with UNC.

(07-26-2022 04:43 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Correct me if I’m off base here, but there really ain’t much value to Duke unless they are paired with UNC.

That is wholly dependent on if basketball gets its proper value separate from the NCAA. I’ve probably said that wrong but JR and others have alluded to the value of basketball. Same goes with Kansas who is hardly valuable except for basketball.

I’d like to see Duke, Kansas, and North Carolina with Kentucky in the SEC.