(11-27-2022 08:28 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 07:13 PM)wleakr Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 07:03 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I don't agree with it, but IMO, if USC or TCU loses their CCG, then Ohio State will step in to their place.

Doubtful. All 3 of Georgia, Ohio State, TCU are most likely all in win or lose CCG. A USC loss is the main hope to allow OSU in.

Ohio State's resume is a lot stronger tham USC.

Are you talking about this season? Southern Cal has beaten the following teams -

#16 Oregon State, 9-3
#17 UCLA, 9-3
#19 Notre Dame, 8-4
Fresno State, 8-4
Washington State, 7-5
Arizona, 5-7
Rice, 5-7
California, 4-8
Arizona State, 3-9
Stanford, 3-9
Colorado, 1-11

and lost to #12 Utah, 9-3.
Ohio State has beaten the following teams -

#8 Penn State, 10-2
#19 Notre Dame, 8-4
Iowa, 7-5
Maryland, 7-5
Toledo, 7-5
Wisconsin, 6-6
Michigan State, 5-7
Indiana, 4-8
Rutgers, 4-8
Arkansas State, 3-9
Northwestern, 1-11

and lost to #2 Michigan, 12-0.
They look pretty comparable to me, Ohio State has a better win (Penn State) and a better loss (Michigan), but Southern Cal has beaten more ranked teams.

No chance tOSU isn't passing TCU. That's not debatable. They are just going to hammer them if they lose any way but a down to wire CCG vs KSU. So it's going to come down to TCU vs Bama (assuming USC loses as well). Lots of if's, but if that's the scenario, I'd imagine Yormark will be doing some serious campaigning because he'll be sweating it out big time along with the rest of that base. That's the scenario I'm hoping for because I love the debates this time of year.

(11-27-2022 08:59 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  No chance tOSU isn't passing TCU. That's not debatable. They are just going to hammer them if they lose any way but a down to wire CCG vs KSU. So it's going to come down to TCU vs Bama (assuming USC loses as well). Lots of if's, but if that's the scenario, I'd imagine Yormark will be doing some serious campaigning because he'll be sweating it out big time along with the rest of that base. That's the scenario I'm hoping for because I love the debates this time of year.

If TCU lost by 40 points they'd still be ahead of bama. Bama has 4 wins against bowl teams and has been a coin flip away from losing in 4 games, plus won another by 6. This is not he bama team of years past, I don't get how people don't see that. USC could lose and still be ranked ahead of bama. There would be a very interesting conversation between USC/Tennessee/Bama for 5-7 anyway.

As for tOSU? TCU has 2 more wins against bowl teams, but you could argue that tOSU looked better against generally lesser competition I suppose. If TCU lost by a bunch tOSU might pass them.

(11-27-2022 09:17 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 08:59 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  No chance tOSU isn't passing TCU. That's not debatable. They are just going to hammer them if they lose any way but a down to wire CCG vs KSU. So it's going to come down to TCU vs Bama (assuming USC loses as well). Lots of if's, but if that's the scenario, I'd imagine Yormark will be doing some serious campaigning because he'll be sweating it out big time along with the rest of that base. That's the scenario I'm hoping for because I love the debates this time of year.

If TCU lost by 40 points they'd still be ahead of bama. Bama has 4 wins against bowl teams and has been a coin flip away from losing in 4 games, plus won another by 6. This is not he bama team of years past, I don't get how people don't see that. USC could lose and still be ranked ahead of bama. There would be a very interesting conversation between USC/Tennessee/Bama for 5-7 anyway.

As for tOSU? TCU has 2 more wins against bowl teams, but you could argue that tOSU looked better against generally lesser competition I suppose. If TCU lost by a bunch tOSU might pass them.

You got to stop with the Bowl teams shtick... means nothing. The Big 12 may look good on paper but they only play each other with the 9 conference games. You have to look past wins and losses in college football and put the best teams, but even if you want to play the most deserving argument, TCU just can't put up a stinker. They will lose that argument if that happens and fall from 3-6 once again.

(11-27-2022 09:48 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 09:17 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 08:59 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  No chance tOSU isn't passing TCU. That's not debatable. They are just going to hammer them if they lose any way but a down to wire CCG vs KSU. So it's going to come down to TCU vs Bama (assuming USC loses as well). Lots of if's, but if that's the scenario, I'd imagine Yormark will be doing some serious campaigning because he'll be sweating it out big time along with the rest of that base. That's the scenario I'm hoping for because I love the debates this time of year.

If TCU lost by 40 points they'd still be ahead of bama. Bama has 4 wins against bowl teams and has been a coin flip away from losing in 4 games, plus won another by 6. This is not he bama team of years past, I don't get how people don't see that. USC could lose and still be ranked ahead of bama. There would be a very interesting conversation between USC/Tennessee/Bama for 5-7 anyway.

As for tOSU? TCU has 2 more wins against bowl teams, but you could argue that tOSU looked better against generally lesser competition I suppose. If TCU lost by a bunch tOSU might pass them.

You got to stop with the Bowl teams shtick... means nothing. The Big 12 may look good on paper but they only play each other with the 9 conference games. You have to look past wins and losses in college football and put the best teams, but even if you want to play the most deserving argument, TCU just can't put up a stinker. They will lose that argument if that happens and fall from 3-6 once again.

I don't have to stop talking about bowl wins, especially since a few years ago the committee used "Ohio State has 7 wins against bowl opponents" as one of the factors used to justify picking them over other teams with the same record. Bullett just mentioned in another thread that TCU has 5 top 30 wins in Sagarin's ratings, only equalled by Georgia and well ahead of the other contenders, I guess we could use that metric instead. Or we could just use your gut to tell us that a 2 loss team who won 2 out of 4 coinflips against a ho-hum schedule would somehow vault ahead of TCU if they lose by more than 3 points, or even that tOSU would vault ahead of them (which you could at least debate if they both ended up with 1 loss).

The Committee HATES the idea of 2 loss teams, there have been a few close calls over the years but they've always gone with 0 or 1 loss teams. And a 2 loss team that couldn't even win it's own division, much less conference? Come on. I'd go so far as to say that a theoretical 2 loss SEC Champ LSU would not have been a shoe-in ahead of a Pac 12 champ 1 loss USC and 1 loss tOSU. LSU would probably have gotten the nod, but it would have been a very intense debate, and might have come down to championship game style points.

Let's get chaos and a "champions bracket" -
LSU vs UNC/Kansas State
Utah vs Purdue

(11-27-2022 08:33 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  TCU has a horrible OOC and they didn't play anyone close to the caliber of LSU Tenn during the season. They have no shot at staying in the top 4 barring some bad call deciding the game against KSU. If they lose the way OSU lost last year to Baylor they MIGHT stay in. It literally has to be one play away from a win type of loss.

The coaches disagree. TCU beat #10 KSU. Alabama lost to #8 Tennessee and #13 LSU. Alabama's best win is #21 Texas, who TCU also beat. UL Monroe, Austin Peay and Utah St., Alabama's 3 ooc other than Texas don't inspire fear in anyone. TCU's SMU, Colorado and Tarleton are probably a little better than Alabama's and TCU played 10 P5s vs. 9 for Alabama and Tennessee. Tennessee's Ball St., Akron and TN-Martin were also a little weaker. Their 9th P5 was decent-Pitt.

(11-27-2022 09:48 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 09:17 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(11-27-2022 08:59 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  No chance tOSU isn't passing TCU. That's not debatable. They are just going to hammer them if they lose any way but a down to wire CCG vs KSU. So it's going to come down to TCU vs Bama (assuming USC loses as well). Lots of if's, but if that's the scenario, I'd imagine Yormark will be doing some serious campaigning because he'll be sweating it out big time along with the rest of that base. That's the scenario I'm hoping for because I love the debates this time of year.

If TCU lost by 40 points they'd still be ahead of bama. Bama has 4 wins against bowl teams and has been a coin flip away from losing in 4 games, plus won another by 6. This is not he bama team of years past, I don't get how people don't see that. USC could lose and still be ranked ahead of bama. There would be a very interesting conversation between USC/Tennessee/Bama for 5-7 anyway.

As for tOSU? TCU has 2 more wins against bowl teams, but you could argue that tOSU looked better against generally lesser competition I suppose. If TCU lost by a bunch tOSU might pass them.

You got to stop with the Bowl teams shtick... means nothing. The Big 12 may look good on paper but they only play each other with the 9 conference games. You have to look past wins and losses in college football and put the best teams, but even if you want to play the most deserving argument, TCU just can't put up a stinker. They will lose that argument if that happens and fall from 3-6 once again.

The Massey composite with 100 rankings rated the Big 12 the toughest conference this year (although the early results this week make it look like USCe and UK's wins put the SEC in the top spot). The Big 10 is 4th, slightly behind the Pac. And TCU played all of them.

Other than the FCS school and Colorado (#116), everyone TCU played is 66 or higher in the Massey composite. They beat 7 teams in the top 50. Ohio St. was 5-1 vs. the top 50. The rest of their schedule was 54, 65, 81, 86, 103 and 115. TCU was 3-0 vs. top 25. Ohio St. was 2-1. Sagarin rates TCU as having the #21 schedule, comfortably better than anyone else in CFP contention.