(02-05-2023 04:29 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(02-05-2023 02:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-05-2023 02:42 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(02-05-2023 02:30 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-05-2023 02:23 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(02-05-2023 01:13 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-05-2023 12:25 PM)XLance Wrote:  Just a few short years ago, before some of the Big East schools escaped and joined the ACC. The 65 schools that currently make up the P5 could have added one school and moved only three others and would have created 6 very competitive conferences of 11 teams each.

Now we wait, just to see how valuable one or two time slots that feature west coast teams will be.

Those 6 conferences could have created value for all, now what we have is the wealthy stealing the value from the two weakest of the remaining 5.

If I could turn back the clock, I would like to see six 12 team conferences:
2011 Pac 12
2010 Big 10 + Rutgers
2010 Big 12 -CU + BYU (Pac 12 would never take BYU and CU fits better in Pac)
2010 SEC
2004 ACC + UCF (instead of adding BC for #12)
2005 Big East - Rutgers but keeping BC (WVU, SU, Pitt, UL, UC, USF, UConn, BC) + TCU, UH, Temple, Notre Dame

Big 10 taking Nebraska from the Big 12 was the trigger that really blew everything up.

I might argue that the Big8 becoming the B12 was the mistake.

I also think the Maryland move still would have happened.

But I agree with you concerning smaller, regional conferences.

Both of you are missing the point of larger conferences, strength in bargaining, and elimination of options for networks. As streaming takes more and more and offers less, being able to command the best brands OTA actually creates premium values, but only if the options are limited. Hence a monster SEC and a monster B1G whose brands command a premium and if loaded with more brand names can insulate themselves against the ravages of streaming. Whether it's a Super 2 plus 1, or a Super 2 (The old P5 condensed) plus P2 (The new G5) larger means less leverage for streaming services and networks to drive down our values. It also means less redundant overhead and less redundant commercial property and more money for all of the schools involved.

This ain't yesterday, not even 30 years ago, not even the last 10 years. This is now and now is why Texas, Oklahoma, Southern Cal, and UCLA got the hell out of dodge and into Ft. Apache.

Nostalgia : )

But, I do think you are right that football money combined with media demands of more content = larger conferences.

I just don't think 1 conference taking 4 schools from one state was a good idea under those past circumstances, even a state as big as Texas. We can debate causes, but that really does look like it created a lot of internal conflict, among other internal and external political pressures and issues.

Imagine if the SEC would have taken TX and TAMU, back then.

I think the Big 8 still exists.

Texas and A&M had been in discussions with the SEC since 1987 and the first six schools which the SEC targeted, before the press and deniability were involved were in 1990-1: Arkansas, Clemson, Florida State, a then silent partner of Texas: Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M. Had Texas and Texas A&M joined in 1992 you are right that the Big 8 would have survived, but minus Oklahoma who would have joined with Texas, and they would have combined more amicably with some of the SWC schools for their survival. Papa Bowden would have been in with Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma and Clemson would have been the one with the hard decision to make as they only had tepid interest at the time, and may have included themselves to spy? Not sure either way. Frank Broyles and Arkansas would have been happy hogs in slop, and if Clemson says no South Carolina is still in.

The question then would have been what allure would the ACC hold without FSU? Would their top schools join the Big East, or would the two merge? Would the Big 10 go hard after Virginia, North Carolina, Maryland and Notre Dame early? At the time the SEC would have been having a nirvana moment. They would have still been interested in North Carolina and had plans for a defensive move to 20 if the Big 10 did move and those plans included Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina and Duke. At the time Virginia Tech had entered discussions and West Virginia had applied, but both were considered too far away from the SEC core.

But to wit, the SEC has now outright acquired 4 of its original 6 targets, and 2 more are strongly back on the radar. In the end Missouri and South Carolina will prove to be the ultimate beneficiaries in the delay. This my friend should demonstrate to you just how visionary Roy Kramer was in terms of who to take, and who later to take to acquire them anyway. South Carolina was rationalized as a new state market and a bridge to North Carolina.

The SEC has never taken its eye off of what it must do to become a dominant regional conference in every way. I know it's hard for those outside the region to comprehend, but the SEC saw the Southwest as its best natural fit and has never had designs or desires for the Northeast or West, or really anyone in the Plains states outside of OU. Missouri is clearly a strategic move, and does make Kansas a possible exception. But to your point I think that Pitt or Syracuse (both AAU at the time), Notre Dame, Maryland and Virginia would have been in the Big 10 by now if the original 6 of the SEC had all said yes. North Carolina and Duke would be the next two in.

This is very interesting. I think I want to start another thread on this : )

Pinning this to the top : )

Ok, so if:

Arkansas, Clemson, Florida State, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M

all had joined the SEC back then, what would the dominoes have looked like?

(02-05-2023 04:36 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Ok, so if:

Arkansas, Clemson, Florida State, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M

all had joined the SEC back then, what would the dominoes have looked like?

SEC - 16.
ACC re-adds South Carolina and adds Big East schools as football-only members.
B1G gets more Midwest with Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska plus Penn St.
PAC adds Colorado.
XII forms with SWC remnants (6) plus Iowa St, Kansas St, and Oklahoma St plus BYU, Utah, and Colorado St.

SEC
East: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee
West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

ACC
North*: Boston College, Miami, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
South: Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina St, South Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest
* Entire division is football-only with all in the Big East except Temple in the A10.

B1G
East: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue
West: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

PAC: Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington St

XII
North: BYU, Colorado St, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Utah
South: Baylor, Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas Tech

(02-05-2023 07:58 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(02-05-2023 04:36 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Ok, so if:

Arkansas, Clemson, Florida State, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M

all had joined the SEC back then, what would the dominoes have looked like?

SEC - 16.
ACC re-adds South Carolina and adds Big East schools as football-only members.
B1G gets more Midwest with Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska plus Penn St.
PAC adds Colorado.
XII forms with SWC remnants (6) plus Iowa St, Kansas St, and Oklahoma St plus BYU, Utah, and Colorado St.

SEC
East: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee
West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

ACC
North*: Boston College, Miami, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
South: Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina St, South Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest
* Entire division is football-only with all in the Big East except Temple in the A10.

B1G
East: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue
West: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

PAC: Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington St

XII
North: BYU, Colorado St, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Utah
South: Baylor, Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas Tech

It's 1991 and the additions are for 1992.

The SEC is at 16, the Big 10 at 11 (PSU), the ACC is still an 8 member conference (the original 7 and Georgia Tech), The Big 8 is now the Big 7 and the SWC is crumbling. The PAC 8 has not added anybody. The Big East is still whole. UCF isn't a blip on the radar yet. So what happens?

The primary conferences to respond would be the Big 10 and the ACC.

Delaney isn't wholly at odds with ESPN and ESPN has interests in the Big East and has not fully acquired the ACC.

In the disarray Virginia is approached by the Big 10 along with North Carolina, Maryland and Notre Dame.

The Big East now has these football playing members: Connecticut, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Rutgers, West Virginia, Miami, Virginia Tech, Temple

Basketball only members: Providence, St.John's, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Villanova

That's 10 football playing members and 5 all but football members.

North Carolina is approaches the SEC after the Big 10 inquires. UNC and Duke commit to the SEC. Virginia, Maryland, and Nebraska join the Big 10.

N.C. State, Wake Forest, join the Big East. Louisville joins the Big East for an even number and a CCG, like what actually happened in the ACC they appease hoops and football schools.

ESPN guides the Big East moving forward and tries to make this their first sports conference in which ESPN will have 100% of the rights.

[b]Big East Football:
South: Louisville, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, West Virginia

(Replace Miami with South Carolina when Miami moves to the SEC).

North: Boston College, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple
* Notre Dame
[/b]
Big Ten Football:

East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Virginia

West: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

The PAC 8 moves to become the PAC 10 with Arizona and Arizona State.

The Big 8 minus two kings eschews academic profile and partners with Houston, Texas Tech, Texas Christian, and Baylor. They stand at a 12. It will be shortlived.

North Carolina and Duke's petition to the SEC is accepted. Georgia Tech reapplies as well, and Bear Bryant has promised his cooperation. The SEC stands at 19. Who to place with them for equal divisions? Miami completes dominance in the Southeast. The Cane's accept.

The Big East refills with South Carolina.

The SEC is done at 20:

Florida, Florida State, Miami, Georgia, Georgia Tech

Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

The Big 10 not to be out done decides to end its nearby competition.

The Big 10 makes the move to 18 with Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri. Iowa State is the final addition as an AAU at the time and after Notre Dame says no.

The Big 10 is done at 18:

Colorado, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Virginia

Now the ever so slow PAC 12 gets the message:

They add Texas Tech, T.C.U., Houston, and Utah.

The PAC 14 is done.

California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Utah, Washington, Washington State

Arizona, Arizona State, California Los Angeles, Houston, Southern Cal, Texas Christian, Texas Tech.

Independents: Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Brigham Young

4 P conferences emerge: SEC, Big 10, Big East, PAC 12. The represent 64 schools.

Independent Notre Dame makes 65 and the 4 independents make 69. Cincinnati, South Florida, and Central Florida will arise within a decade to make 72.

Sorry Skyhawk, but after putting the moves to how things existed in '91-92 the outlook for the Big 8 changed.

If you go back a couple years to 1990, the SWC was a last second Stanford veto from imploding. Texas was going to the Pac. Texas A&M to the SEC. Arkansas would have also gone to the SEC as #12. Pac would have almost certainly brought in Colorado for #12.

So SWC would be down to 6. Big 8 to 7. And South Carolina still wouldn't have had a home.
Big 10 was 11. ACC 9. Big East 8.

Lots of permutations with the SWC/Big 8/Big East/ACC/USCe-31 schools. Big 10 wasn't ready to expand again at that point.

(02-05-2023 07:58 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(02-05-2023 04:36 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Ok, so if:

Arkansas, Clemson, Florida State, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M

all had joined the SEC back then, what would the dominoes have looked like?

SEC - 16.
ACC re-adds South Carolina and adds Big East schools as football-only members.
B1G gets more Midwest with Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska plus Penn St.
PAC adds Colorado.
XII forms with SWC remnants (6) plus Iowa St, Kansas St, and Oklahoma St plus BYU, Utah, and Colorado St.

SEC
East: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee
West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

ACC
North*: Boston College, Miami, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
South: Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina St, South Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest
* Entire division is football-only with all in the Big East except Temple in the A10.

B1G
East: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue
West: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

PAC: Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington St

XII
North: BYU, Colorado St, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Utah
South: Baylor, Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas Tech

Interesting.

I agree that, with OK leaving the B8, Nebraska likely was joining the B10 along with Penn state - and that back in the Osborne years.

Though, this is still really early in realignment, so I don't know if conferences would be too excited to jump anywhere near 16 schools.

So while Kansas/Missouri would be a very good idea, I'm not sure if it would have happened. But, for the sake of whatever, let's say it did.

The Big 10 was kinda of meh over Iowa state at the time, and picked Penn state over Pittsburgh. But I wonder if Syracuse could have been in the mix back then, or if the writing was on the wall even back then.

And Big east was going to be a mess. I don't think the football schools are allowed to come along even without their football sports. The drama was nearing fever pitch when they finally broke up. And while UConn had other issues going on later which may have helped prevent an invite for them, this is earlier, and so might have made it through.

There's also the Metro conference and what they were talking about at the time:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superconference

I think it's likely that the ACC did take Big east schools, as they actually did - but just add a few more as well.

If this is 90/91, then the Arkansas/SC combination might not have happened. If the SEC gets Texas schools, they might not add Arkansas, who then might end up in the B8. For SC and AR to happen, OK state would likely have needed to as well, and I have the impression that that was the bridge too far (like Texas Tech and Baylor). And with Clemson having cold feet back then, it's quite possible they don't make the trip.

There's also the in-state political issues concerning the Texas teams. If they manage to navigate those to where TX does not have to bring Baylor and Tech to the SEC, I do think they'd get a home in the Big8 as a consolation prize. And with Arkansas, adding BYU makes 8.

So changes:

SEC (10+4) - Florida State, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M. (AR and SC/Clemson, not included)

East: Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee
West: LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Big10 (10+4) - Penn State, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri. (With Maryland and Rutgers still, as later adds)

East: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue
West: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

ACC (18) - Loses FSU. Adds former BigEast and Metro schools. (ND non-fb, as a later add)

North: Boston College, Connecticut, Louisville, Miami, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
South: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina St, South Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest

Big8 (-3+3) - Loses Oklahoma, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri. Adds Texas Tech, Baylor, Arkansas, BYU.

Arkansas, Baylor, BYU, Colorado, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Texas Tech.

And the rest of the SWC and BigEast football schools scatter as they actually did.

This maintains rivalries and reduces a some of the geographic distance issues that later happened.

Compared to today, the SEC would not have AR or MO or SC, but would have FSU. And quote possibly would have added Clemson, later, and maybe AR too, for 16. (ACC replaces Clemson with Cincinnati. And B8 replaces AR with TCU.)

I don't know if a Rutgers in the ACC would have paid to leave like Maryland did. But they might've. If not, I think it's possible that VA might have gone with instead for 16. There was talk of that at the time, when the B10 surprised seemingly everyone with the Rutgers invite.

And that Big8 likely doesn't have any of the drama that the B12 did. If the push to 12 still happens due to the NCAA rule, then Colorado likely leaves to join Utah in the PAC, at which point, Houston likely gets their invite. I think the B8 might still want to eventually get into Florida, and so UCF still gets added, along with USF. And the "Big8" (with 10 schools) likely still gets their waiver.

Of course, even later, when USC/UCLA eventually happens, the PAC has even fewer options. And the B8 would be in an even better position to invite some PAC (and possibly MWC) schools.

What would be needed to get to this spot now?

FSU and Clemson to the SEC; MO and KS to the B10; WV, UConn, SC, and Cincinnati to the ACC; USF to the B8.

It's funny how it would not take too many moves to get us to that spot.

(02-05-2023 09:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-05-2023 07:58 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(02-05-2023 04:36 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  Ok, so if:

Arkansas, Clemson, Florida State, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M

all had joined the SEC back then, what would the dominoes have looked like?

SEC - 16.
ACC re-adds South Carolina and adds Big East schools as football-only members.
B1G gets more Midwest with Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska plus Penn St.
PAC adds Colorado.
XII forms with SWC remnants (6) plus Iowa St, Kansas St, and Oklahoma St plus BYU, Utah, and Colorado St.

SEC
East: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee
West: Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

ACC
North*: Boston College, Miami, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
South: Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, North Carolina St, South Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest
* Entire division is football-only with all in the Big East except Temple in the A10.

B1G
East: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Purdue
West: Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

PAC: Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon St, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington St

XII
North: BYU, Colorado St, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, Utah
South: Baylor, Houston, Rice, SMU, TCU, Texas Tech

It's 1991 and the additions are for 1992.

The SEC is at 16, the Big 10 at 11 (PSU), the ACC is still an 8 member conference (the original 7 and Georgia Tech), The Big 8 is now the Big 7 and the SWC is crumbling. The PAC 8 has not added anybody. The Big East is still whole. UCF isn't a blip on the radar yet. So what happens?

The primary conferences to respond would be the Big 10 and the ACC.

Delaney isn't wholly at odds with ESPN and ESPN has interests in the Big East and has not fully acquired the ACC.

In the disarray Virginia is approached by the Big 10 along with North Carolina, Maryland and Notre Dame.

The Big East now has these football playing members: Connecticut, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Rutgers, West Virginia, Miami, Virginia Tech, Temple

Basketball only members: Providence, St.John's, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Villanova

That's 10 football playing members and 5 all but football members.

North Carolina is approaches the SEC after the Big 10 inquires. UNC and Duke commit to the SEC. Virginia, Maryland, and Nebraska join the Big 10.

N.C. State, Wake Forest, join the Big East. Louisville joins the Big East for an even number and a CCG, like what actually happened in the ACC they appease hoops and football schools.

ESPN guides the Big East moving forward and tries to make this their first sports conference in which ESPN will have 100% of the rights.

[b]Big East Football:
South: Louisville, Miami, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, West Virginia

(Replace Miami with South Carolina when Miami moves to the SEC).

North: Boston College, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse, Temple
* Notre Dame
[/b]
Big Ten Football:

East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Virginia

West: Illinois, Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

The PAC 8 moves to become the PAC 10 with Arizona and Arizona State.

The Big 8 minus two kings eschews academic profile and partners with Houston, Texas Tech, Texas Christian, and Baylor. They stand at a 12. It will be shortlived.

North Carolina and Duke's petition to the SEC is accepted. Georgia Tech reapplies as well, and Bear Bryant has promised his cooperation. The SEC stands at 19. Who to place with them for equal divisions? Miami completes dominance in the Southeast. The Cane's accept.

The Big East refills with South Carolina.

The SEC is done at 20:

Florida, Florida State, Miami, Georgia, Georgia Tech

Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt

Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee

Arkansas, Louisiana State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

The Big 10 not to be out done decides to end its nearby competition.

The Big 10 makes the move to 18 with Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri. Iowa State is the final addition as an AAU at the time and after Notre Dame says no.

The Big 10 is done at 18:

Colorado, Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Virginia

Now the ever so slow PAC 12 gets the message:

They add Texas Tech, T.C.U., Houston, and Utah.

The PAC 14 is done.

California, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Utah, Washington, Washington State

Arizona, Arizona State, California Los Angeles, Houston, Southern Cal, Texas Christian, Texas Tech.

Independents: Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and Brigham Young

4 P conferences emerge: SEC, Big 10, Big East, PAC 12. The represent 64 schools.

Independent Notre Dame makes 65 and the 4 independents make 69. Cincinnati, South Florida, and Central Florida will arise within a decade to make 72.

Sorry Skyhawk, but after putting the moves to how things existed in '91-92 the outlook for the Big 8 changed.

I dunno, I don't think the conferences go that big that early.

But let's say you are correct and VA, NC, and Duke, get an invite along with Penn State. I don't think MD or Rutgers get an invite then. And I'm not sure Nebraska does either.

With the Big8 only losing Oklahoma in that situation, they still can add AR, and just not add BYU. And thus still wouldn't need to add WV.

Thus:

SEC still adds TX, TAMU, OK, and FSU - 14 (Doesn't have AR, SC, or MO.)

Big10 adds VA, NC, Duke, and Penn State - 14 (Doesn't have NE, MD, or Rutgers)

B8 loses OK, gains AR (Still has CO, NE, MO; Doesn't have TCU, WV, BYU, Cin, Houston, or UCF.)

ACC can add whatever they want from the BigEast and Metro, with the remainder in the AAC.

Well... That cured a lot of instability : )

Edit:

If the SEC decided to go to 16 (per the OP), with Clemson (cured of cold feet) and Arkansas, then in that case, BYU is the likely B8 backfil instead of AR.

I don't know how to cure the internal Texas politics (Baylor and Texas tech-related politicians not wanting their schools separated from TX) that pretty much prevented all of this. I don't know if there was a solution to that.