Eleven different conferences have made it to the Sweet 16. Five of them have already earned at least 10 tournament units so far. The following is a summary of where each stands going into Thursday's games. The Max column is how many units they could possibly earn in the tournament, and Exp(ected) is the number they would earn if they win every game in which they are the higher seed.

Conf...Earned..Max..Exp

SEC.........15.......21....18
B12.........14.......18....18
B1G.........14.......16....14
BE...........12.......18....14
ACC.........10.......12....10
PAC..........7.........9......9
MWC........6.........8......6
WCC.........5.........7.....5
AAC..........4.........6.....6
USA..........3.........5.....3
IVY...........3.........5.....3
NEC..........3.........3.....3
SLC..........2.........2.....2
SOU.........2.........2.....2
OTHER......1.........1.....1

Let the games begin!

(03-20-2023 07:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  Eleven different conferences have made it to the Sweet 16. Five of them have already earned at least 10 tournament units so far. The following is a summary of where each stands going into Thursday's games. The Max column is how many units they could possibly earn in the tournament, and Exp(ected) is the number they would earn if they win every game in which they are the higher seed.

Conf...Earned..Max..Exp

SEC.........15.......21....18
B12.........14.......18....18
B1G.........14.......16....14
BE...........12.......15....14
ACC.........10.......12....10
PAC..........7.........9......9
MWC........6.........8......6
WCC.........5.........7.....5
AAC..........4.........6.....6
USA..........3.........5.....3
IVY...........3.........5.....3
NEC..........3.........3.....3
SLC..........2.........2.....2
SOU.........2.........2.....2
OTHER......1.........1.....1

Let the games begin!

Big East I know is wrong. 12 units and still 3 teams left. They could still earn 6 more units if all 3 teams made the final 4.
UConn 5
Xavier 5
Creighton 5
Marquette 2
Providence 1
do think the 14 expected is correct though.

(03-20-2023 07:56 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 07:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  Eleven different conferences have made it to the Sweet 16. Five of them have already earned at least 10 tournament units so far. The following is a summary of where each stands going into Thursday's games. The Max column is how many units they could possibly earn in the tournament, and Exp(ected) is the number they would earn if they win every game in which they are the higher seed.

Conf...Earned..Max..Exp

SEC.........15.......21....18
B12.........14.......18....18
B1G.........14.......16....14
BE...........12.......15....14
ACC.........10.......12....10
PAC..........7.........9......9
MWC........6.........8......6
WCC.........5.........7.....5
AAC..........4.........6.....6
USA..........3.........5.....3
IVY...........3.........5.....3
NEC..........3.........3.....3
SLC..........2.........2.....2
SOU.........2.........2.....2
OTHER......1.........1.....1

Let the games begin!

Big East I know is wrong. 12 units and still 3 teams left. They could still earn 6 more units if all 3 teams made the final 4.
UConn 5
Xavier 5
Creighton 5
Marquette 2
Providence 1
do think the 14 expected is correct though.

You are correct. Thanks for catching that. I've fixed it.

How many Big Ten teams did it take to get in the tournament for one to make the Sweet 16? Also, the vaunted Big XII was humbled with only lame duck Texas and Kansas State (who?) still alive.

Transfer portal has killed bench depth. I don’t think it’s good or bad, but it definitely makes things interesting.

If each conference earns their Expected Units, their trailing 3 year units earned per conference member would be:

4.3 B12
3.5 B1G
3.2 BE
3.0 SEC
3.0 PAC
2.6 ACC
1.7 WCC
1.6 AAC
1.1 MWC

PAC is higher than I expected based on recent performance. Their units earned in 2021 were more than their total from the next two years (19 vs 17) thanks to UCLAs Final Four run.

The ACC has fallen off sharply. They earned 64 units between 2016-18, but would only expect to earn 39 from 2021-23 despite having two Final Four teams last year.

If you took the seeding out of consideration, which upset would be more impactful? Princeton over Creighton or Florida Atlantic over Tennessee?

(03-20-2023 08:07 AM)esayem Wrote:  How many Big Ten teams did it take to get in the tournament for one to make the Sweet 16? Also, the vaunted Big XII was humbled with only lame duck Texas and Kansas State (who?) still alive.

Transfer portal has killed bench depth. I don’t think it’s good or bad, but it definitely makes things interesting.

About the bolded, it always irks me that the B1G racks up lots of units every year despite regularly flopping, just because the committee seemingly puts a big pile of them in the tournament every year. You start out with eight teams in, and you get eight units even if everyone loses their games. Of course the B1G does win games in the tournament, often lots of them, but still, getting all those "free" credits.

One way to solve that is to give no credits just for being in the tournament, save for the conference's auto-bid.

IOWs, every conference gets one unit at the start of the tournament, the unit for the team that is their AQ team. All other units have to be earned with wins.

Just posted in a different thread:

If Tennessee and Michigan State meet in the Elite 8, we will see two veteran coaches doing battle. UT has no Final Four appearance in program history. The Vols (then coached by Bruce Pearl0 had a chance in 2010 but lost in a one-point game — to Michigan State and Tom Izzo.

I anticipate Tennessee to physically overwhelm FAU (a very good team, no doubt) and for the veteran Izzo to find a way to lead MSU past a very underrated Kansas State. If so, and once more, Michigan State will stand in the way of Tennessee's path to the Final Four. But this time ... the Vols will win.

Of course, I picked Marquette, Virginia and Kansas to all make the Final Four. So my skills at foreseeing the future are woeful.

Considering the TV ratings from this season and the teams that drew well (Big Ten teams included), could this year's NCAA Tournament be in trouble? The "Cinderella" is Princeton, not a "little guy".

The "top" teams left are Michigan State, UCLA, Connecticut, and Gonzaga. Houston playing in Houston would be a feel good story. Jim Nantz is calling the NCAA Tournament for the last time this year and he's a Houston alum. Maybe Florida Atlantic would become a feelgood story. After the mess in Alabama, I certainly would hate if they won this year.

(03-20-2023 08:29 AM)ken d Wrote:  If each conference earns their Expected Units, their trailing 3 year units earned per conference member would be:

4.3 B12
3.5 B1G
3.2 BE
3.0 SEC
3.0 PAC
2.6 ACC
1.7 WCC
1.6 AAC
1.1 MWC

PAC is higher than I expected based on recent performance. Their units earned in 2021 were more than their total from the next two years (19 vs 17) thanks to UCLAs Final Four run.

The ACC has fallen off sharply. They earned 64 units between 2016-18, but would only expect to earn 39 from 2021-23 despite having two Final Four teams last year.

Yeah, 2020 hurt as well. Only four teams were tourney locks, but any one of them could have gone all the way.

Louisville coaching turmoil, veteran coaching turnover, early entries. It’s been a storm of rebuilding, that’s for sure.

Three Jesuit schools in the Sweet 16 (Creighton, Gonzaga, Xavier). That's only the fourth time that has happened since the NCAAT expanded.

2021 - Creighton, Gonzaga, Loyola
2006 - Boston College, Georgetown, Gonzaga
1985 - Boston College, Georgetown, Loyola

Before the tournament expanded, there were three instances of multiple Jesuit schools making the regional semifinals: 1974 (25 teams) saw Creighton, Marquette and San Francisco, 1964 (25 teams) saw Creighton, San Francisco, Seattle and Loyola and 1955 (24 teams) saw Canisius, Marquette, San Francisco and Seattle.

What the ACC's situation shows is just how relatively unimportant basketball performance is when it comes to conference revenues (and therefore realignment). Despite the sharp decline, the difference in their per school payout from NCAAT performance is only around $1 million per year. That's a very minor part of every AAC school's athletics budget.

(03-20-2023 07:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  Eleven different conferences have made it to the Sweet 16. Five of them have already earned at least 10 tournament units so far. The following is a summary of where each stands going into Thursday's games. The Max column is how many units they could possibly earn in the tournament, and Exp(ected) is the number they would earn if they win every game in which they are the higher seed.

Conf...Earned..Max..Exp

SEC.........15.......21....18
B12.........14.......18....18
B1G.........14.......16....14
BE...........12.......18....14
ACC.........10.......12....10
PAC..........7.........9......9
MWC........6.........8......6
WCC.........5.........7.....5
AAC..........4.........6.....6
USA..........3.........5.....3
IVY...........3.........5.....3
NEC..........3.........3.....3
SLC..........2.........2.....2
SOU.........2.........2.....2
OTHER......1.........1.....1

Let the games begin!

MWC currently at 5 right? 3 bids. 2 first round losses and SDSU has earned 3 units so far.

(03-20-2023 10:29 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 07:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  Eleven different conferences have made it to the Sweet 16. Five of them have already earned at least 10 tournament units so far. The following is a summary of where each stands going into Thursday's games. The Max column is how many units they could possibly earn in the tournament, and Exp(ected) is the number they would earn if they win every game in which they are the higher seed.

Conf...Earned..Max..Exp

SEC.........15.......21....18
B12.........14.......18....18
B1G.........14.......16....14
BE...........12.......18....14
ACC.........10.......12....10
PAC..........7.........9......9
MWC........6.........8......6
WCC.........5.........7.....5
AAC..........4.........6.....6
USA..........3.........5.....3
IVY...........3.........5.....3
NEC..........3.........3.....3
SLC..........2.........2.....2
SOU.........2.........2.....2
OTHER......1.........1.....1

Let the games begin!

MWC currently at 5 right? 3 bids. 2 first round losses and SDSU has earned 3 units so far.

I believe they had four bids this year.

(03-20-2023 10:37 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 10:29 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 07:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  Eleven different conferences have made it to the Sweet 16. Five of them have already earned at least 10 tournament units so far. The following is a summary of where each stands going into Thursday's games. The Max column is how many units they could possibly earn in the tournament, and Exp(ected) is the number they would earn if they win every game in which they are the higher seed.

Conf...Earned..Max..Exp

SEC.........15.......21....18
B12.........14.......18....18
B1G.........14.......16....14
BE...........12.......18....14
ACC.........10.......12....10
PAC..........7.........9......9
MWC........6.........8......6
WCC.........5.........7.....5
AAC..........4.........6.....6
USA..........3.........5.....3
IVY...........3.........5.....3
NEC..........3.........3.....3
SLC..........2.........2.....2
SOU.........2.........2.....2
OTHER......1.........1.....1

Let the games begin!

MWC currently at 5 right? 3 bids. 2 first round losses and SDSU has earned 3 units so far.

I believe they had four bids this year.

4 bids- 3 1 and done, and then 3 for SDSU. So 6 total right now.

(03-20-2023 10:40 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 10:37 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 10:29 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 07:53 AM)ken d Wrote:  Eleven different conferences have made it to the Sweet 16. Five of them have already earned at least 10 tournament units so far. The following is a summary of where each stands going into Thursday's games. The Max column is how many units they could possibly earn in the tournament, and Exp(ected) is the number they would earn if they win every game in which they are the higher seed.

Conf...Earned..Max..Exp

SEC.........15.......21....18
B12.........14.......18....18
B1G.........14.......16....14
BE...........12.......18....14
ACC.........10.......12....10
PAC..........7.........9......9
MWC........6.........8......6
WCC.........5.........7.....5
AAC..........4.........6.....6
USA..........3.........5.....3
IVY...........3.........5.....3
NEC..........3.........3.....3
SLC..........2.........2.....2
SOU.........2.........2.....2
OTHER......1.........1.....1

Let the games begin!

MWC currently at 5 right? 3 bids. 2 first round losses and SDSU has earned 3 units so far.

I believe they had four bids this year.

4 bids- 3 1 and done, and then 3 for SDSU. So 6 total right now.

I think they're forgetting about Nevada in the Play-in game.

(03-20-2023 08:07 AM)esayem Wrote:  How many Big Ten teams did it take to get in the tournament for one to make the Sweet 16? Also, the vaunted Big XII was humbled with only lame duck Texas and Kansas State (who?) still alive.

Transfer portal has killed bench depth. I don’t think it’s good or bad, but it definitely makes things interesting.

Other than Purdue, the B1G performed mostly as expected. While they got a lot of teams in, only two were seeded to make the Sweet 16. A lot of depth, but no outstanding teams. The B1G showed in OOC play they deserved the bids they got.

Time to stop talking about who isn't here, and start talking about who is.

Thursday games have three teams that weren't supposed to get this far: #7 Michigan State, #8 Arkansas and #9 FAU. Who will continue to overachieve?

Friday games are all the result of chalk prevailing, with one glaring exception: #15 Princeton vs #6 Creighton. Will the Tigers glass slipper break?

Even if your real bracket has already been busted, here's a second chance to show your picking chops. Who ya' got?

(03-20-2023 08:07 AM)esayem Wrote:  How many Big Ten teams did it take to get in the tournament for one to make the Sweet 16? Also, the vaunted Big XII was humbled with only lame duck Texas and Kansas State (who?) still alive.

Transfer portal has killed bench depth. I don’t think it’s good or bad, but it definitely makes things interesting.

In basketball, the transfer portal seems to be creating more parity. In football, the cream is rising to the top as always.

IMO these will be the Elite 8 matchups:
Alabama v. Creighton
FAU v. Kansas St
Miami v. Texas
UConn v. Gonzaga