The SEC has had a plan for growth that it has been working since 1990-2. Expand regionally, with the best possible branding, and the best possible contiguity.

I've discussed many times how the dream moves to 16 in 1990-2 would have been to land Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M to the West (done), and Florida State and Clemson to the East. The presidents, way back 30+ years ago, thought that the Southeast and Southwest were the two strongest regions culturally for college football. And they were. This applied to the support of high school programs and college sports. Add brands with a national draw or very strong regional draw in regions where the highest percentage of actual viewers compared to potential viewers existed and the networks would be on board as well.

People forget that Arkansas was a strong brand, even in hoops with Nolan Richardson's Hogs giving everyone 40 minutes of hell. South Carolina was not a primary target but is the state flagship of South Carolina and has done well in the SEC providing along with Tennessee, Georgia, and Kentucky, a natural reach to North Carolina should we want it.

To date the SEC has only made one move for markets only, Missouri, which was an acceptable option necessary to fulfill ESPN's renegotiation clause in the then Tier 2 contract with the SEC, and in preparation of opening the SECN, and defensively for the network more so than the SEC as it robbed part of the pathway for the Big 10 to Oklahoma or Texas. It also leaves us a natural rival for a valuable basketball school and rival of Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and a neighbor seldom played in the past, Arkansas.

As we now stand there is much debate about who, if we grow again, should be considered.

The SEC needs more Florida destinations to accommodate the demand in among conference mates for games in Florida. Florida State would be the strongest consideration here due to geography, being in the capital of the state, and overall fit in terms of competitiveness in all sports and attendance. Besides the Gators have twice nominated them for SEC membership. Miami, however, is not without merit as it reaches a different part of the state.

The focus for the past decade has been for additions in North Carolina and Virginia. The markets are valuable, and basketball is valuable, but the football in both is lacking and their valuation is not that great, even at UNC. But more on that later.

So far, the SEC has added value and the best remaining value additions which are in new markets and contiguous are Notre Dame which in Indiana is contiguous to Kentucky, and Kansas, which as noted above fits the new SEC West quite well. Those two additions would bring a combined value of 1.4 billion to the SEC, which already enjoys a 3.1-billion-dollar lead over the Big 10. What's more is that Notre Dame would tap nicely into Big 10 markets giving the SEC a strategic advantage overall.

The question is, would Notre Dame even consider SEC membership? At first glance, and based upon their past history the answer would seem to be no. There's the NBC affiliation and tie in with the current Big 10 which would lend one to believe that may be a thing which gives the Big 10 an advantage. But then there is the ESPN relationship, and their NBC contract is coming open relatively soon.

What does the Big 10 offer the Irish? Academic associations to be sure, a home for hockey where the sport is beloved, and a lot of exposure in Big 10 cities, but the Irish already have that. USC and possibly Stanford as conferences mates would be another angle. But California is largely secular, football is dying out there culturally faster than in most parts of the Northern Midwest and South, and if USC remains on an island and Notre Dame remains independent and can schedule them anyway is that really a selling point? Even if they don't remain on an island and the Big 10 picks up Stanford, Oregon, and Washington is that really important to Notre Dame? So outside of ease of travel for minor sports and a home for hockey the answer is not much.

The SEC has some key advantages for Notre Dame. It now holds two of the three strongest football recruiting regions in the country, the Southeast and Southwest. It now has enough academic elites to at least be competitive academically (Texas, Florida, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Missouri, and could likely wind up with a few more). We have large travel crowds, good weather, and a more rapidly growing population center. We also have a large number of Catholics and a few states growing significantly in that regard. With Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky near enough to make travel better, and with the possibility of North Carolina and Virginia in the future, perhaps even a bit more geographically and academically friendly. And the SEC has ESPN which would love to find a way to build upon and capitalize Notre Dame.

Kansas is only waiting upon an invitation.

If the SEC added as numbers 17 & 18 Kansas and Notre Dame the realignment game is over with the exception of niche additions (think Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia to 24).

Would ESPN like to have this as their primary conference?

SEC East:
Clemson, Duke, Florida, Georgia, Miami, South Carolina

SEC North:
Kentucky, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Virginia, Vanderbilt

SEC South:
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State

SEC West:
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

The payouts here could easily hit 100 million for the branding and reach.

How do you lure Notre Dame? They don't participate in the SECN. They have the NDN set up and sold in package with the rest by ESPN. Notre Dame's travel is not extensive, they are in the bowl structure and conference for everything, they just have their own network, which could serve as a base for the athletics of Catholic schools elsewhere if they wished it to. They get access to the best recruiting in the nation and games regularly in all of those regions.

Basketball branding is now stellar: Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Kansas are the four winningest programs in college basketball. Arkansas, Tennessee, Virginia, Florida, L.S.U., Texas, and Oklahoma are all historically solid relevant and Texas A&M, Miami, Auburn, and Alabama are rising as is Florida State.

Baseball and Softball are through the roof!

What this kind of move, should we be able to pull it off, would do is essentially open the door in the future for the addition of 6 more schools in a division of their own:

Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin and Nebraska.

Follow that with this:
Arizona State, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Oregon, Southern California, Washington

And now the 36 team super league is formed. Why? It ties them all into the only regions left with solid recruiting and enough recruits to make them all competitive. It is no accident that the Southeastern and Southwestern regions have accounted for 22 of the last 25 national championships.

IMO, the taking of Southern California and U.C.L.A. was the mistake in the Chess game that the SEC was waiting for. The Big 10 can't afford to leave those two exposed and on their own out west. Interest will flag without main rivals, travel will be a killer past peak oil, which we may have met. The Big 10 is now committed to expending more slots to the West. That means fewer slots to the East. Without Notre Dame they have no chance of keeping pace with the SEC financially. Southern schools will opt for more money and regional play and will not be interested in being 2 to 4 schools mostly traveling like hell to games in the Northern Midwest their fans and donors care little to see.

So, where's the upside business wise in this for ESPN, FOX and the schools involved?

ESPN becomes what it has been rumored to become, a broker. The six divisions have their T1 rights packaged and sold to key networks individually, but the money is pooled and divided by all. T2 rights are either kept and aired by ESPN or FOX (with FOX main network included for T1 and ABC with T1 for Disney) and the Divisional networks are sold individually or with a bundle for all, utilizing all of the T3. This is why the NDN doesn't hurt the SECN and actually helps it in a bundle as the NDN is part of the SECN 6 divisional bundle.

What happens to the rest of the schools presently in the P5? They form their own league in a second tier offering.

If ESPN/FOX want to make this happen, then Notre Dame and Kansas to the SEC would get it done. If they want two distinct leagues which meet in the Super Bowl of college football, then FOX has to land Notre Dame, and either Kansas or Washington.

Anyway, that's how I see it.

Notre Dame loves their national schedule. To me, that's the key thing they cannot lose.

I know the ND fans speak of independence as the end all, be all. What they don't realize is that economics will force them out of that framework one way or the other. It's only a matter of time. It's not even a matter of being eligible for the postseason even though that's an element of this. The economics of the game will require change.

The nature of team competition in itself requires a great degree of cooperation. That being the case, if ND wants to play at the highest level of this team sport then they will have to adapt to the consensus position. Actually, they've already done that quite a bit.

I've pointed out before that their compromises on playing Big East football teams and now ACC teams was born of necessity. It wasn't ND's first choice to sign those sort of deals with those leagues. Of course, those deals were in ND's interests or they wouldn't have signed them. The point is that they weren't a reflection of the ideal. They were by definition a compromise to get what was most needed at the expense of the ideal.

So anyway, that trend has been growing in recent decades and shows nothing other than signs of speeding up.

So who does ND join when they join in full? They'll do what they've always done. Sacrifice the ideal for the necessary.

Part of what they view as necessary is the national exposure...significant travel to significant markets, not necessarily regional travel. So I don't know where Notre Dame goes, but I just don't see the Big Ten as a slam dunk unless they're accessing numerous regions and markets. If the Big Ten wants to do that then I think they'll have to go far beyond 20. That's just my opinion.

What does the SEC offer? A lot of advantages just as JR states, but I do think if the SEC wants to make a serious push for ND then they will have to think in terms of adding schools from other regions. I'm not sure the SEC really wants to do that.

Yes, it's true that Notre Dame will always have great exposure in a lot of markets by virtue of their history and prestige. With that said, they don't want to lose ground. Just as the SEC might consider defensive positions within their footprint in order to keep the Big Ten out, it makes sense to me that ND would consider how best to access their traditional markets just do they don't lose any influence there. After all, ND has made a living off of donations and not just media money.

But speaking of changes in economics and dynamics...there will come a greater need to rely on media money in the future because I don't see a ton of new donors ponying up to subsidize employees. Maybe I'm wrong about that.

And as I said, it does depend on whether ND wants to compete at the highest levels of this sport.

Something that hasn't been talked about on here that much is UGA's relationship with.Notre Dame. Whenever these two powers collide, strange stuff seems to happen. Would you believe that UGA's fans outnumbered the Irish in their own stadium??? It's true.

Notre Dame was probably the highest rated northern team easily for UGA, and UGA did end up winning it all after defeating ND.

ND is not a hated foe, like UF or GT to UGA, but a very highly respected one, probably like UGA's relationship with Auburn or ND relationship with USC, IMO. I think that scheduling priorities have prevented the two from playing each other more than in the past, but when they do collide, the atmosphere is very electric, IMHO.

Reading this, I have to wonder if ND would stop to think: maybe we do need to play UGA and 'Bama more in the future. They're more like us than the typical B1G team is, except for USC."

(04-16-2023 01:54 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The SEC has had a plan for growth that it has been working since 1990-2. Expand regionally, with the best possible branding, and the best possible contiguity.

I've discussed many times how the dream moves to 16 in 1990-2 would have been to land Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M to the West (done), and Florida State and Clemson to the East. The presidents, way back 30+ years ago, thought that the Southeast and Southwest were the two strongest regions culturally for college football. And they were. This applied to the support of high school programs and college sports. Add brands with a national draw or very strong regional draw in regions where the highest percentage of actual viewers compared to potential viewers existed and the networks would be on board as well.

People forget that Arkansas was a strong brand, even in hoops with Nolan Richardson's Hogs giving everyone 40 minutes of hell. South Carolina was not a primary target but is the state flagship of South Carolina and has done well in the SEC providing along with Tennessee, Georgia, and Kentucky, a natural reach to North Carolina should we want it.

To date the SEC has only made one move for markets only, Missouri, which was an acceptable option necessary to fulfill ESPN's renegotiation clause in the then Tier 2 contract with the SEC, and in preparation of opening the SECN, and defensively for the network more so than the SEC as it robbed part of the pathway for the Big 10 to Oklahoma or Texas. It also leaves us a natural rival for a valuable basketball school and rival of Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and a neighbor seldom played in the past, Arkansas.

As we now stand there is much debate about who, if we grow again, should be considered.

The SEC needs more Florida destinations to accommodate the demand in among conference mates for games in Florida. Florida State would be the strongest consideration here due to geography, being in the capital of the state, and overall fit in terms of competitiveness in all sports and attendance. Besides the Gators have twice nominated them for SEC membership. Miami, however, is not without merit as it reaches a different part of the state.

The focus for the past decade has been for additions in North Carolina and Virginia. The markets are valuable, and basketball is valuable, but the football in both is lacking and their valuation is not that great, even at UNC. But more on that later.

So far, the SEC has added value and the best remaining value additions which are in new markets and contiguous are Notre Dame which in Indiana is contiguous to Kentucky, and Kansas, which as noted above fits the new SEC West quite well. Those two additions would bring a combined value of 1.4 billion to the SEC, which already enjoys a 3.1-billion-dollar lead over the Big 10. What's more is that Notre Dame would tap nicely into Big 10 markets giving the SEC a strategic advantage overall.

The question is, would Notre Dame even consider SEC membership? At first glance, and based upon their past history the answer would seem to be no. There's the NBC affiliation and tie in with the current Big 10 which would lend one to believe that may be a thing which gives the Big 10 an advantage. But then there is the ESPN relationship, and their NBC contract is coming open relatively soon.

What does the Big 10 offer the Irish? Academic associations to be sure, a home for hockey where the sport is beloved, and a lot of exposure in Big 10 cities, but the Irish already have that. USC and possibly Stanford as conferences mates would be another angle. But California is largely secular, football is dying out there culturally faster than in most parts of the Northern Midwest and South, and if USC remains on an island and Notre Dame remains independent and can schedule them anyway is that really a selling point? Even if they don't remain on an island and the Big 10 picks up Stanford, Oregon, and Washington is that really important to Notre Dame? So outside of ease of travel for minor sports and a home for hockey the answer is not much.

The SEC has some key advantages for Notre Dame. It now holds two of the three strongest football recruiting regions in the country, the Southeast and Southwest. It now has enough academic elites to at least be competitive academically (Texas, Florida, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, Missouri, and could likely wind up with a few more). We have large travel crowds, good weather, and a more rapidly growing population center. We also have a large number of Catholics and a few states growing significantly in that regard. With Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky near enough to make travel better, and with the possibility of North Carolina and Virginia in the future, perhaps even a bit more geographically and academically friendly. And the SEC has ESPN which would love to find a way to build upon and capitalize Notre Dame.

Kansas is only waiting upon an invitation.

If the SEC added as numbers 17 & 18 Kansas and Notre Dame the realignment game is over with the exception of niche additions (think Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia to 24).

Would ESPN like to have this as their primary conference?

SEC East:
Clemson, Duke, Florida, Georgia, Miami, South Carolina

SEC North:
Kentucky, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Virginia, Vanderbilt

SEC South:
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State

SEC West:
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

The payouts here could easily hit 100 million for the branding and reach.

How do you lure Notre Dame? They don't participate in the SECN. They have the NDN set up and sold in package with the rest by ESPN. Notre Dame's travel is not extensive, they are in the bowl structure and conference for everything, they just have their own network, which could serve as a base for the athletics of Catholic schools elsewhere if they wished it to. They get access to the best recruiting in the nation and games regularly in all of those regions.

Basketball branding is now stellar: Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Kansas are the four winningest programs in college basketball. Arkansas, Tennessee, Virginia, Florida, L.S.U., Texas, and Oklahoma are all historically solid relevant and Texas A&M, Miami, Auburn, and Alabama are rising as is Florida State.

Baseball and Softball are through the roof!

What this kind of move, should we be able to pull it off, would do is essentially open the door in the future for the addition of 6 more schools in a division of their own:

Iowa, Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin and Nebraska.

Follow that with this:
Arizona State, California Los Angeles, Colorado, Oregon, Southern California, Washington

And now the 36 team super league is formed. Why? It ties them all into the only regions left with solid recruiting and enough recruits to make them all competitive. It is no accident that the Southeastern and Southwestern regions have accounted for 22 of the last 25 national championships.

IMO, the taking of Southern California and U.C.L.A. was the mistake in the Chess game that the SEC was waiting for. The Big 10 can't afford to leave those two exposed and on their own out west. Interest will flag without main rivals, travel will be a killer past peak oil, which we may have met. The Big 10 is now committed to expending more slots to the West. That means fewer slots to the East. Without Notre Dame they have no chance of keeping pace with the SEC financially. Southern schools will opt for more money and regional play and will not be interested in being 2 to 4 schools mostly traveling like hell to games in the Northern Midwest their fans and donors care little to see.

So, where's the upside business wise in this for ESPN, FOX and the schools involved?

ESPN becomes what it has been rumored to become, a broker. The six divisions have their T1 rights packaged and sold to key networks individually, but the money is pooled and divided by all. T2 rights are either kept and aired by ESPN or FOX (with FOX main network included for T1 and ABC with T1 for Disney) and the Divisional networks are sold individually or with a bundle for all, utilizing all of the T3. This is why the NDN doesn't hurt the SECN and actually helps it in a bundle as the NDN is part of the SECN 6 divisional bundle.

What happens to the rest of the schools presently in the P5? They form their own league in a second tier offering.

If ESPN/FOX want to make this happen, then Notre Dame and Kansas to the SEC would get it done. If they want two distinct leagues which meet in the Super Bowl of college football, then FOX has to land Notre Dame, and either Kansas or Washington.

Anyway, that's how I see it.

You put an incredible amount of thought and work into this possible scenario, and I think you are spot on. The bonus here is watching the Big Ten throw up all over themselves if we landed both ND and Kansas.