(06-04-2023 01:54 PM)everyone Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 01:18 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(06-03-2023 07:28 PM)everyone Wrote:  

(06-03-2023 05:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(06-03-2023 05:26 PM)everyone Wrote:  Facts are great but AAC past vs SB present would not be apples to apples.

The SB has much bigger goals than possibly stealing a time slot or two from the AAC...we plan and expect to be the best G5 conference in the years to come.

Then AAC 2023 onward against Sun Belt present isn't apples to apples either. Your fundamental error is thinking that the three leaving are any different from the eight staying -' there really isn't any difference. They are three of our top half, not some Big Three.

I expect you'll be disappointed in your bigger goals.

Come back in six months and we'll see what's transpired.

I'm no going anywhere compadre. I don't mean to downplay the leftovers but the AAC will never be what it was bc if what it has lost. You are similar to CUSA in that regard.

Maybe you don't mean to, but you continue to overstate what's walking out and understate what we still have.

No one is saying the American isn't losing some quality. I wish that UT and OU hadn't made their move and we were moving into the expanded playoff era with the profile we had in June of 2021. We won't be what we were. We're no longer head and shoulders above the other four non-contract-bowl conferences - but we still have advanatages.

We still have as many CFP NY6 appearances as the G4 conferences combined. Looking a little deeper:

By conference, Appearances in the 2014-2022 CFP Committee Rankings:
2023 American Athletic Conference 50 (46 from seven different legacy teams)
Departing AAC to Big 12 Teams: 47
mountain west conference: 35
2022+ Sun Belt: 18
MAC: 8

2014-2022 CFP Ranking Appearances by school. all those not in a contract-bowl-conference as of 2023-24 season:
Boise State 20
Memphis 15
Navy 12
Temple 6
Tulane 6
Fresno State 6
San Diego State 6
Western Michigan 6
Appalachian State 5
Louisiana 5
Tulsa 4
UTSA 4
Marshall 3
Utah State 2
SMU 2
Toledo 2
Troy 1
ECU 1

Eight of our fourteen teams - no matter who is doing well out of the AAC, the CFP Committee will give full credit.

Good info and I enjoyed the read. You always provide substantive analysis...much appreciated. So are we saying Western Michigan has a better shot than any SB team to be ranked consistently and maybe even make the playoff? Past results are not always indicative of future performance especially when the conference that has had the best performance is getting teams plucked. Did not realize Navy had done so well. Can Navy get 12 more appearances? I would bet on SB teams replacing several of those appearances in the coming years. Better hope Memphis sticks around. I can't wait to see how it all plays out.

Of course this doesn't predict the coming season or any years beyond that. But I think it does do a pretty good job of negating the dogmatic prediction that the AAC future performance is destined to be poor because we lost the only good teams.

This was actually fun to do - halfway through I thought it would be great to present graphically showing the conferences or the teams over time.
One of the couple times with four AAC teams in the CFP rankings in a single week was in 2015 - Memphis, Navy, Temple, and then bringing up the rear Houston. Other four-AAC-team weeks included three of the remainers and only one leaver.

That context of time, annotating the most recent appearance AND looking at multiple appearances over multiple years, would help us dispense with your little strawman about WMU's six.
Six? Sure, but they were from back in 2016 and they were ALL from 2016. The Sun Belters are all more recent. Troy and Louisiana are more recent AND multiple years. I remembered Marshall's 2014 flare-up, but hey a couple from COVID 2020. Coastal on the other hand - without going back again, I think all those were from one (COVID) year, and now the coach is gone...so when I add that nuance, yes, this is more useful.

Temple's were a few years back, but over more than one year. Tulane was all in one year, but it was last year - with the time factor, yes, I am comfortable predicting Tulane's future prospects are better than WMU's. Memphis was multiple years, not just their NY6 year. Navy's appearances are spread out over 2015, 2016, and 2019 - probably a safe bet that if they do well, the Committee will respect them. Can Navy do it again? I hope so. In the year that got our winningest coach ever fired, Navy was 3-2 vs the AAC stayers...a little improvement against a now weaker AAC, plus CiC wins and look good against ND? Of course they'll get committee respect.

As with so many things, the more you roll up your sleeves and get your hands on the data, the better you can do to use the data wisely and well.

As long as you brought up WMU, there is one other point. Western Michigan is the example that a team could come from nowhere, put together a good season, and maybe even get to the playoff. The Broncos needed a lot to go right in 2016: the MAC was awful for the SoS but gave them eight wins, one BigTen foe was turrible and one was beatable but respectable, AND the AAC contenders all had losses (and even so, the committee was talking after Thanksgiving about 2-loss Navy passing them because of wins against Memphis and Tulsa and Houston) AND Boise was down. A lot of the conversation here is that it is now a three conference race, but another WMU could come out of the MAC, or Liberty could turn $$$ from the Church of Hypocrisy into football Ws and finish undefeated and at least be in the conversation.

(06-05-2023 09:29 AM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 09:52 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 09:12 AM)TripleA Wrote:  There is not a school in the SB that wouldn't move to the ACC if they were invited. End of discussion.

You could probably say the same about the AAC

By changing either the subject or the predicate.

Now don’t you go changing the subject on me.

clt suggests this chat page should be deleted.

(06-06-2023 09:11 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 01:54 PM)everyone Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 01:18 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  

(06-03-2023 07:28 PM)everyone Wrote:  

(06-03-2023 05:55 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  Then AAC 2023 onward against Sun Belt present isn't apples to apples either. Your fundamental error is thinking that the three leaving are any different from the eight staying -' there really isn't any difference. They are three of our top half, not some Big Three.

I expect you'll be disappointed in your bigger goals.

Come back in six months and we'll see what's transpired.

I'm no going anywhere compadre. I don't mean to downplay the leftovers but the AAC will never be what it was bc if what it has lost. You are similar to CUSA in that regard.

Maybe you don't mean to, but you continue to overstate what's walking out and understate what we still have.

No one is saying the American isn't losing some quality. I wish that UT and OU hadn't made their move and we were moving into the expanded playoff era with the profile we had in June of 2021. We won't be what we were. We're no longer head and shoulders above the other four non-contract-bowl conferences - but we still have advanatages.

We still have as many CFP NY6 appearances as the G4 conferences combined. Looking a little deeper:

By conference, Appearances in the 2014-2022 CFP Committee Rankings:
.
.
.
See next reply for updated info
.
.
.

Eight of our fourteen teams - no matter who is doing well out of the AAC, the CFP Committee will give full credit.

Good info and I enjoyed the read. You always provide substantive analysis...much appreciated. So are we saying Western Michigan has a better shot than any SB team to be ranked consistently and maybe even make the playoff? Past results are not always indicative of future performance especially when the conference that has had the best performance is getting teams plucked. Did not realize Navy had done so well. Can Navy get 12 more appearances? I would bet on SB teams replacing several of those appearances in the coming years. Better hope Memphis sticks around. I can't wait to see how it all plays out.

Of course this doesn't predict the coming season or any years beyond that. But I think it does do a pretty good job of negating the dogmatic prediction that the AAC future performance is destined to be poor because we lost the only good teams.

This was actually fun to do - halfway through I thought it would be great to present graphically showing the conferences or the teams over time.
One of the couple times with four AAC teams in the CFP rankings in a single week was in 2015 - Memphis, Navy, Temple, and then bringing up the rear Houston. Other four-AAC-team weeks included three of the remainers and only one leaver.

That context of time, annotating the most recent appearance AND looking at multiple appearances over multiple years, would help us dispense with your little strawman about WMU's six.
Six? Sure, but they were from back in 2016 and they were ALL from 2016. The Sun Belters are all more recent. Troy and Louisiana are more recent AND multiple years. I remembered Marshall's 2014 flare-up, but hey a couple from COVID 2020. Coastal on the other hand - without going back again, I think all those were from one (COVID) year, and now the coach is gone...so when I add that nuance, yes, this is more useful.

Temple's were a few years back, but over more than one year. Tulane was all in one year, but it was last year - with the time factor, yes, I am comfortable predicting Tulane's future prospects are better than WMU's. Memphis was multiple years, not just their NY6 year. Navy's appearances are spread out over 2015, 2016, and 2019 - probably a safe bet that if they do well, the Committee will respect them. Can Navy do it again? I hope so. In the year that got our winningest coach ever fired, Navy was 3-2 vs the AAC stayers...a little improvement against a now weaker AAC, plus CiC wins and look good against ND? Of course they'll get committee respect.

As with so many things, the more you roll up your sleeves and get your hands on the data, the better you can do to use the data wisely and well.

As long as you brought up WMU, there is one other point. Western Michigan is the example that a team could come from nowhere, put together a good season, and maybe even get to the playoff. The Broncos needed a lot to go right in 2016: the MAC was awful for the SoS but gave them eight wins, one BigTen foe was turrible and one was beatable but respectable, AND the AAC contenders all had losses (and even so, the committee was talking after Thanksgiving about 2-loss Navy passing them because of wins against Memphis and Tulsa and Houston) AND Boise was down. A lot of the conversation here is that it is now a three conference race, but another WMU could come out of the MAC, or Liberty could turn $$$ from the Church of Hypocrisy into football Ws and finish undefeated and at least be in the conversation.

Looking at older threads with some "we'll see at the end of the season" kind of notes to wrap them up.

The AAC Championship Game did not get flexed off of ABC for the Sun Belt.

I mention the Thursday 19 October game did end up favoring the Sun Belt on ESPN and the AAC on ESPN2, but one or two other six-day selections on Saturdays went for the American.

The American had a terrible season...and the TV alignment still favored the American.

(I was obviously bullish and optimistic about the AAC's 2023 season, and our collective performance didn't support that. But my predictions ALSO accounted for that possibility, and things like Falwell U taking the NY6 spot)

When I read through this six month old thread, I wanted to update this listing to add 2023 information as well, and adjust for the loss of SMU - the Mustangs are still counted separately below, but NOT in the AAC numbers.
Updates are bolded.

(06-04-2023 01:18 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  We no longer have as many CFP NY6 Game appearances as the G4 conferences combined, but two where none other have more than one. We have more weeks spent in the CFP Committee Rankings by the teams remaining than by the teams departed/departing.
Looking a little deeper:

By conference, Appearances in the 2014-2023 CFP Committee Rankings:
2024 American Athletic Conference 52 (48 from six out of seven legacy teams)
Departing AAC to Big 12 Teams: 47
Departing AAC to ACC team: 3
mountain west conference: 35
2022+ Sun Belt: 18
MAC: 8
CUSA: 3

2014-2023 CFP Ranking Appearances by school. all those not in a contract-bowl-conference as of 2023-24 season:
Boise State 20
Memphis 15
Navy 12
Tulane 11
Temple 6
Fresno State 6
San Diego State 6
Western Michigan 6
Appalachian State 5
Louisiana 5
Tulsa 4
UTSA 4
Liberty 3
Marshall 3
Utah State 2
SMU 3
Toledo 2
Troy 1
ECU 1

Seven of our fourteen teams - no matter who is doing well out of the AAC, the CFP Committee will give full credit.

People still go to the AAC for whatever they need in the P5. We don't have much meat left on the bone, but they still come to us. "Dusty May to Michigan".

The slum belt is celebrating themselves inching closer to us because we keep getting ravaged is pathetic. Lowering the bar to make you look better is not a recipe for success you fools.

clt would trade smu for Army 1000 times

(03-31-2024 09:38 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  People still go to the AAC for whatever they need in the P5. We don't have much meat left on the bone, but they still come to us. "Dusty May to Michigan".

The slum belt is celebrating themselves inching closer to us because we keep getting ravaged is pathetic. Lowering the bar to make you look better is not a recipe for success you fools.

THIS.

Southern Miss had some damn solid teams 40+ years ago back in the 70's and 80's. But the bottom line fact is that USM = a backwoods school in a backwoods town in SE Mississippi. That POS stadium is falling apart and has to seriously improve to be an eyesore.

The AAC membership is based in primarily large metro areas that have paved roads, restaurants other than Waffle House and Billy Bob's BBQ, an economy FAR beyond farming, sharecropping, and noodling. Most important, AAC schools are in locations that boast functionally literate citizens.

Other schools could conceivably RISE above the SLUM BELT but USM never will. HARD STOP.

It is important that the backwoods trolls that infest Hattiesburg KNOW THEIR PLACE in the world of college athletics. That place is the SLUM BELT. End of discussion.

Embrace it, cherish it, breathe it, live it, and LOVE IT. But above all, you should damn sure ACCEPT IT. Your backwoods school will never rise above it.

It is up to AAC members to render the option moot.

(04-02-2024 01:30 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  It is up to AAC members to render the option moot.

Well, it's moot in 2024, because our CCG is on the Friday night.

(04-02-2024 01:03 PM)boss man Wrote:  

(03-31-2024 09:38 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  People still go to the AAC for whatever they need in the P5. We don't have much meat left on the bone, but they still come to us. "Dusty May to Michigan".

The slum belt is celebrating themselves inching closer to us because we keep getting ravaged is pathetic. Lowering the bar to make you look better is not a recipe for success you fools.

THIS.

Southern Miss had some damn solid teams 40+ years ago back in the 70's and 80's. But the bottom line fact is that USM = a backwoods school in a backwoods town in SE Mississippi. That POS stadium is falling apart and has to seriously improve to be an eyesore.

The AAC membership is based in primarily large metro areas that have paved roads, restaurants other than Waffle House and Billy Bob's BBQ, an economy beyong farming, sharecropping, and noodling. Most important, AAC schools are in locations that boast functionally literate citizens.

Other schools could conceivably RISE above the SLUM BELT but USM never will. HARD STOP.

It is important that the backwoods trolls that infest Hattiesburg KNOW THEIR PLACE in the world of college athletics. That place is the SLUM BELT. End of discussion.

Embrace it, cherish it, breathe it, live it, and LOVE IT. But above all, you should damn sure ACCEPT IT. Your backwoods school will never rise above it.

Could not have said it better myself. Excellent post.

clt says dude just ended usm

dairy whip >>>>>>>>> waffle house

(06-04-2023 09:12 AM)TripleA Wrote:  There is not a school in the SB that wouldn't move to the ACC if they were invited. End of discussion.

That's right. Every SB member would leave for The American, but no American school would leave for the Sunbelt. It's that simple. American markets are much bigger and our TV exposure is much more significant.

(04-03-2024 04:37 PM)Ourland Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 09:12 AM)TripleA Wrote:  There is not a school in the SB that wouldn't move to the ACC if they were invited. End of discussion.

That's right. Every SB member would leave for The American, but no American school would leave for the Sunbelt. It's that simple. American markets are much bigger and our TV exposure is much more significant.

Well, they said ACC, not AAC. Not sure if that was intended.

Word is we chose to stay in the Belt. I have no information to verify or deny that, and I doubt any will ever surface, so it'll just be one of those apocryphal stories of GSU sports minutiae.

For the record, I personally like the Belt just as much as the AAC. I guess I'm like many on here...since it becomes clear this is the case whenever folks start throwing out their ideal G5 conferences...in that I'd love to pick and choose our conference mates. Doesn't work that way for us, unfortunately. FWIW, I'd choose Temple over any other G5 to lure to the SBC, due to their location near my home, some legit recognition in a huge market (way more than Villanova, from what I can tell), and history of success. It ain't gonna happen...but think about it, Owls...