With the PAC meeting in a few hours, here's a quick thread to guess the projected money behind its deal...

I'll take a shot. If the revenue were distributed equally, I'd say $24 million per remaining school. Any newbies will get $10 million each.

https://twitter.com/sidelines_sn/status/...OBPKLg0WDw

Quit being afraid of the Super Sun Belt, just let it happen

(08-01-2023 09:52 AM)Pony94 Wrote:  https://twitter.com/sidelines_sn/status/...OBPKLg0WDw

Quit being afraid of the Super Sun Belt, just let it happen

Nice. Now tell us what SMU will be making in the PAC...

I would guess that with all the positives the PAC 12 had for Colorado (alumni locations, academic ratings, student recruitment areas), the money must have really not been close to what the B12 was offering for them to bolt. Something had to make them not "think like a university president".

So yeah, maybe $20-25 million per school.

(08-01-2023 10:13 AM)Ourland Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 09:52 AM)Pony94 Wrote:  https://twitter.com/sidelines_sn/status/...OBPKLg0WDw

Quit being afraid of the Super Sun Belt, just let it happen

Nice. Now tell us what SMU will be making in the PAC...

Random twitter account but has been correct on a few things in the past and aligns with what I've seen elsewhere.

If true .. gonna be hard to pull a new school in for 10 mil .. especially MWC schools with 30M+ buyouts

(08-01-2023 10:20 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

Random twitter account but has been correct on a few things in the past and aligns with what I've seen elsewhere.

If true .. gonna be hard to pull a new school in for 10 mil .. especially MWC schools with 30M+ buyouts

Yeah I was having similar thoughts. Even for AAC schools I don’t think it’s a complete no brainer. I’m not sure I’d go for it. The lack of stability in the conference and lower payout would give me pause. Only a 2 year deal, so numbers would likely go down if and when others leave. Also, initially G5s probably wouldn’t get a full share.

(08-01-2023 10:38 AM)cscottl1981 Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 10:20 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

Random twitter account but has been correct on a few things in the past and aligns with what I've seen elsewhere.

If true .. gonna be hard to pull a new school in for 10 mil .. especially MWC schools with 30M+ buyouts

Yeah I was having similar thoughts. Even for AAC schools I don’t think it’s a complete no brainer. I think you go for it, but the lack of stability in the conference would give me pause. Only a 2 year deal, so numbers would likely go down if and when others leave. Also, initially G5s likely wouldn’t get a full share.

Yea the push is for G5s to get half .. so 10 million. Plus its 100% streaming behind a subscription. And tied to Apple. So overall visibility will be much lower. Then add travel costs (for any of the AAC teams) .. i'm not sure how it would make sense unless you are REALLY banking on that next contract being bigger. I think it's more likely you would have lost even more schools by then (especially Oregon and Washington)

(08-01-2023 10:20 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

Random twitter account but has been correct on a few things in the past and aligns with what I've seen elsewhere.

If true .. gonna be hard to pull a new school in for 10 mil .. especially MWC schools with 30M+ buyouts

If the second tweet proves to be true, leaving the AAC for that would be stupidity of the highest order.

(08-01-2023 10:20 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

Random twitter account but has been correct on a few things in the past and aligns with what I've seen elsewhere.

If true .. gonna be hard to pull a new school in for 10 mil .. especially MWC schools with 30M+ buyouts

This tweeter loves to throw all kind of stuff into the wall, then when he hits on some it looks like he is right.

Just wait for actual numbers, I’m over all these Tweeter experts that all they want is hits and throw out all kind of BS.

(08-01-2023 11:31 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 10:20 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

Random twitter account but has been correct on a few things in the past and aligns with what I've seen elsewhere.

If true .. gonna be hard to pull a new school in for 10 mil .. especially MWC schools with 30M+ buyouts

This tweeter loves to throw all kind of stuff into the wall, then when he hits on some it looks like he is right.

Just wait for actual numbers, I’m over all these Tweeter experts that all they want is hits and throw out all kind of BS.

i've looked over the past months tweets and hes been spot on.

(08-01-2023 11:45 AM)Agust Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 11:31 AM)Cubanbull1 Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 10:20 AM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

Random twitter account but has been correct on a few things in the past and aligns with what I've seen elsewhere.

If true .. gonna be hard to pull a new school in for 10 mil .. especially MWC schools with 30M+ buyouts

This tweeter loves to throw all kind of stuff into the wall, then when he hits on some it looks like he is right.

Just wait for actual numbers, I’m over all these Tweeter experts that all they want is hits and throw out all kind of BS.

i've looked over the past months tweets and hes been spot on.

He deletes tweets that were wrong

Jason Scheer from Arizona is the one you want to be refreshing.

If new schools are only getting $10 million and viewship is limited to apple tv subscription I don't see any advantage for an AAC to school to join the PAC.

(08-01-2023 12:17 PM)49ShadesOfGreen Wrote:  If new schools are only getting $10 million and viewship is limited to apple tv subscription I don't see any advantage for an AAC to school to join the PAC.

...and wouldn't that be contingent upon the current members of the PAC staying put? If the rest of the 4C all bail out, it would be diminished, I would assume... and if UO/Udub get the B1G call, the whole deal may be blown up...

If the new PAC deal is worth $20 million per school in an Apple streaming package, and the new additions would receive half shares ($10 million), is that worth leaving the AAC for?

The PAC will have autonomous status, but no conference is guaranteed an auto-bid in the new 12-team playoff. Plus, the PAC's presidents aren't going to agree to a long expensive GOR. They all want out now. So, that deal could be further reduced as more programs exit in the coming years. SMU and possibly another AAC program have a lot to think about.

(08-01-2023 12:24 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 12:17 PM)49ShadesOfGreen Wrote:  If new schools are only getting $10 million and viewship is limited to apple tv subscription I don't see any advantage for an AAC to school to join the PAC.

...and wouldn't that be contingent upon the current members of the PAC staying put? If the rest of the 4C all bail out, it would be diminished, I would assume... and if UO/Udub get the B1G call, the whole deal may be blown up...

Hmmm...So the deal is worth 20ml x9 (current members) + 10ml x 3 (newbs) = 210ml total. Am I reading that right?

Current member numbers will plummet of course.

(08-01-2023 12:37 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 12:24 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 12:17 PM)49ShadesOfGreen Wrote:  If new schools are only getting $10 million and viewship is limited to apple tv subscription I don't see any advantage for an AAC to school to join the PAC.

...and wouldn't that be contingent upon the current members of the PAC staying put? If the rest of the 4C all bail out, it would be diminished, I would assume... and if UO/Udub get the B1G call, the whole deal may be blown up...

Hmmm...So the deal is worth 20ml x9 (current members) + 10ml x 3 (newbs) = 210ml total. Am I reading that right?

Current member numbers will plummet of course.

The thought is deal is 20x up to 12. So 240 mil total. They are proposing adding 3 at 10 mil. Then they can take that extra 30 mil to bump the existing 9 up a little.. so like 23-24 mil each

(08-01-2023 12:29 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  If the new PAC deal is worth $20 million per school in an Apple streaming package, and the new additions would receive half shares ($10 million), is that worth leaving the AAC for?

The PAC will have autonomous status, but no conference is guaranteed an auto-bid in the new 12-team playoff. Plus, the PAC's presidents aren't going to agree to a long expensive GOR. They all want out now. So, that deal could be further reduced as more programs exit in the coming years. SMU and possibly another AAC program have a lot to think about.

Yeah the pac could end up just being another MWC. This is an opportunity for Aresco to get creative here. Could be opportunities.

1. Merger
2. consolidate into new conference.

Standing pat would just be settling for going in reverse.

Joining the Pac at 10 ml might still be better depending on who stays (Wash St, Oregon St) and 10 best of the rest G5's. All the streaming is what turns me off.

(08-01-2023 12:41 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 12:37 PM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 12:24 PM)GreenFreakUAB Wrote:  

(08-01-2023 12:17 PM)49ShadesOfGreen Wrote:  If new schools are only getting $10 million and viewship is limited to apple tv subscription I don't see any advantage for an AAC to school to join the PAC.

...and wouldn't that be contingent upon the current members of the PAC staying put? If the rest of the 4C all bail out, it would be diminished, I would assume... and if UO/Udub get the B1G call, the whole deal may be blown up...

Hmmm...So the deal is worth 20ml x9 (current members) + 10ml x 3 (newbs) = 210ml total. Am I reading that right?

Current member numbers will plummet of course.

The thought is deal is 20x up to 12. So 240 mil total. They are proposing adding 3 at 10 mil. Then they can take that extra 30 mil to bump the existing 9 up a little.. so like 23-24 mil each

Ok I get it. That won't be enough to hold Arizona, Utah, and AZ state. Oregon and Wash are going to bolt to the Big. Stanford and Cal most likely gone too.

So you'd be going to the MWC plus OSU and WSU. That would probably blow up the deal. You'd have 10 g5's making 10 ml coming from two conferences making 5-7 million a team now. Why would ESPN do that? They already have us at a lower rate in a better time zone.