The additional cost is in the per school SEC pro rata of the new media pay out: 7 x 35 = 245 million
Cost of moving 2 to the Big 10: -40 x 2 = -80 million
Cost of moving 5 teams to the Big 12: -20 x 5 = -100 million (plus exit fees)
Total cost of all moves for ESPN: +65 million.

ESPN loses the overhead of the ACCN and duplicated personalities and facilities. Saves 100 million.

ESPN converts the LHN into the B12N and can do so easily because they have all of the T3 rights to the Big 12. They do this if it can be profitable.

ESPN makes about 10 million more per game from the Content of just FSU and Clemson vs a SEC schedule. If the SEC moves to 10 conference games that's 200 million more and that doesn't count what Virginia Tech and Miami might make.

The 9 schools moving to the SEC and Big 10 pay their $120 million exit fee only.

Remember ESPN controls damages by placement of other schools and the collection and distribution of exit fees to those who may be left out, and to those headed to the Big 12 where they will make 8 million less than in the ACC, but each of the 5 schools not making the SEC or Big 10 would split 1.08 billion NETTING each of the 5 schools 216 million dollars each, more twice enough to cover the 96 million each would have made getting paid the ACC contracted amount through 2036.


To the SEC: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia Tech. Those 7 represent 59.4% of the total value of the ACC. Just FSU and Clemson are 24.7% of that. Those 7 sew up the Deep South making it all SEC and all ESPN.

To the Big 10: Duke, Virginia
To the Big 12: Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, possibly Wake Forest

Notre Dame is on its own to decide their own future.

SEC picks up Kansas for #8.

Big 10 picks up California and Stanford (reduced rates)

Notre Dame as a partial to each of the Big 10, SEC, Big 12. They play 4 Big 10 games, 4 SEC games, and 2 Big 12 games a season.

Why do 7 go to the SEC? ESPN holds those rights in the ACC and the same rights in the SEC. If they want to keep 7 ACC schools this is the cost of it.

This is a deal which improves the position of 9 schools, gives up to 5 more full access to the upper tier postseasons, and should any be left out rewards them handsomely for the inconvenience.

This is the way you structure a deal which earns ESPN more money from the product they hold now, promotes 9 of the 15 schools. Gives Notre Dame the freedom to do what is best for them in a changing environment, and keeps at least 3, maybe all 5 other schools in the upper tier and pays them for their trouble.

It puts the Big 10 into Virginia and North Carolina.

It permits the SEC to control its region which is what it wants.

It strengthens the Big 12 in markets and reach and maybe in T3 value.

It's a win, win, win, from a potentially rotten situation.

Georgia Tech in for the SEC and Virginia out in that scenario...interesting.

Certainly keeps things a little more compact.

Adding Kansas makes a lot of sense. That means the Big 12 needs to add an odd number though. UConn is still an option for them if they're taking Northeastern schools. Syracuse, Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Louisville will sync well with UConn as far as additions go. It also keeps the basketball centric expansion concept for the Big 12 intact even if they lose KU.

Kansas would have to pay to get out of that GOR though unless the Big 12 just waived it in exchange for all the other additions they would receive...which makes good sense to me.

The sad thing for Wake Forest is they actually have some very solid programs...even football. They have good facilities and it's a good school in a growing state. They just don't have a significant fan base. I wouldn't mind them in the SEC actually. No offense to Vanderbilt, but they are easily what Vanderbilt could be if they tried a little harder. We just don't need Wake though. Wake would probably slide into whatever version of the American comes out of all this.

There is much buzz in South Carolina concerning Clemson withdrawing from the ACC and going fb Independent, at first, if necessary. The University of South Carolina, at least as a public face and with the official voting to come, supports Clemson to the SEC. Clemson and South Carolina are going to play each other in football, basketball, and baseball, regardless. May as well have the games as "in-conference", particularly if the SEC "ups" the number of required SEC football games for each school.
I spoke to a local SC legislator, casually, a couple of days ago, and he expressed the state legislature has Clemson's back as exiting negotiations may be forthcoming/continuing. There's been debate on this board about sovereignty clauses; but apparently it is a real factor. The ACC trying to sue the State of South Carolina may not work. Pre-GoR, South Carolina has experience in withdrawing from the ACC. Suing media revenue distributors may be a separate matter.

Whether Clemson and FSU will be the first to leave the ACC and join the SEC as the initial pair, is a popular viewpoint with a number of college sports bloggers and beat writers.

https://www.sportskeeda.com/college-foot...12-schools

What JRsec said sounds plausible in a collective exit strategy from the ACC. Leaving one or two at a time, the remaining ACC schools will haul in much cash and they may be less inclined to exit soon themselves.

I like ATU's point about Wake Forest. Overall, they are better athletically than given credit. I would not be critical if the SEC absorbed them; though I deem it quite unlikely. The real issue with Wake is that they have the smallest undergraduate student body in the P5/4. That's more in the ballpark with Rice and Tulsa in terms of students.

I would not dismiss UVA and VPI going somewhere together, even to the BIG. If UNC and NCSU head to the SEC, I doubt the SEC would seek to add Duke.

If the SEC strategy (via ESPN) is to block off the deeper south from the BIG (and whatever the "lesser" B12 further attempts), taking Miami and Georgia Tech makes sense. There's USF if the BIG/B12 becomes interested in them.

I actually prefer "regional" models. The SEC has done it right so far. I have not been a fan of mega-sizes over 16 members, but that is the direction and pattern it is going nationwide. The PAC collapsed as part of the process for failing to be proactive. The ACC may be next to be depleted, overhauled, or disbursed into three other conferences. Divisiveness and stubbornness may be their demise with too little, too late, and outreaching for a couple of schools 3,000 miles away. We'll see.

(08-14-2023 01:56 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  There is much buzz in South Carolina concerning Clemson withdrawing from the ACC and going fb Independent, at first, if necessary. The University of South Carolina, at least as a public face and with the official voting to come, supports Clemson to the SEC. Clemson and South Carolina are going to play each other in football, basketball, and baseball, regardless. May as well have the games as "in-conference", particularly if the SEC "ups" the number of required SEC football games for each school.
I spoke to a local SC legislator, casually, a couple of days ago, and he expressed the state legislature has Clemson's back as exiting negotiations may be forthcoming/continuing. There's been debate on this board about sovereignty clauses; but apparently it is a real factor. The ACC trying to sue the State of South Carolina may not work. Pre-GoR, South Carolina has experience in withdrawing from the ACC. Suing media revenue distributors may be a separate matter.

Whether Clemson and FSU will be the first to leave the ACC and join the SEC as the initial pair, is a popular viewpoint with a number of college sports bloggers and beat writers.

https://www.sportskeeda.com/college-foot...12-schools

What JRsec said sounds plausible in a collective exit strategy from the ACC. Leaving one or two at a time, the remaining ACC schools will haul in much cash and they may be less inclined to exit soon themselves.

I like ATU's point about Wake Forest. Overall, they are better athletically than given credit. I would not be critical if the SEC absorbed them; though I deem it quite unlikely. The real issue with Wake is that they have the smallest undergraduate student body in the P5/4. That's more in the ballpark with Rice and Tulsa in terms of students.

I would not dismiss UVA and VPI going somewhere together, even to the BIG. If UNC and NCSU head to the SEC, I doubt the SEC would seek to add Duke.

If the SEC strategy (via ESPN) is to block off the deeper south from the BIG (and whatever the "lesser" B12 further attempts), taking Miami and Georgia Tech makes sense. There's USF if the BIG/B12 becomes interested in them.

I actually prefer "regional" models. The SEC has done it right so far. I have not been a fan of mega-sizes over 16 members, but that is the direction and pattern it is going nationwide. The PAC collapsed as part of the process for failing to be proactive. The ACC may be next to be depleted, overhauled, or disbursed into three other conferences. Divisiveness and stubbornness may be their demise with too little, too late, and outreaching for a couple of schools 3,000 miles away. We'll see.

There has been a lot of buzz coming out of Tallahassee. Becoming independent first before joining the SEC may be an ESPN requirement since that grants distance between the relationship of ESPN to the ACC and ESPN to the SEC and would give ESPN more freedom to accommodate the movement without being central to it, at least in perception. AllTideUP had referenced at one point a 2 to 3 week span which might exist before announcements. We'll see.

(08-14-2023 02:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-14-2023 01:56 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  There is much buzz in South Carolina concerning Clemson withdrawing from the ACC and going fb Independent, at first, if necessary. The University of South Carolina, at least as a public face and with the official voting to come, supports Clemson to the SEC. Clemson and South Carolina are going to play each other in football, basketball, and baseball, regardless. May as well have the games as "in-conference", particularly if the SEC "ups" the number of required SEC football games for each school.
I spoke to a local SC legislator, casually, a couple of days ago, and he expressed the state legislature has Clemson's back as exiting negotiations may be forthcoming/continuing. There's been debate on this board about sovereignty clauses; but apparently it is a real factor. The ACC trying to sue the State of South Carolina may not work. Pre-GoR, South Carolina has experience in withdrawing from the ACC. Suing media revenue distributors may be a separate matter.

Whether Clemson and FSU will be the first to leave the ACC and join the SEC as the initial pair, is a popular viewpoint with a number of college sports bloggers and beat writers.

https://www.sportskeeda.com/college-foot...12-schools

What JRsec said sounds plausible in a collective exit strategy from the ACC. Leaving one or two at a time, the remaining ACC schools will haul in much cash and they may be less inclined to exit soon themselves.

I like ATU's point about Wake Forest. Overall, they are better athletically than given credit. I would not be critical if the SEC absorbed them; though I deem it quite unlikely. The real issue with Wake is that they have the smallest undergraduate student body in the P5/4. That's more in the ballpark with Rice and Tulsa in terms of students.

I would not dismiss UVA and VPI going somewhere together, even to the BIG. If UNC and NCSU head to the SEC, I doubt the SEC would seek to add Duke.

If the SEC strategy (via ESPN) is to block off the deeper south from the BIG (and whatever the "lesser" B12 further attempts), taking Miami and Georgia Tech makes sense. There's USF if the BIG/B12 becomes interested in them.

I actually prefer "regional" models. The SEC has done it right so far. I have not been a fan of mega-sizes over 16 members, but that is the direction and pattern it is going nationwide. The PAC collapsed as part of the process for failing to be proactive. The ACC may be next to be depleted, overhauled, or disbursed into three other conferences. Divisiveness and stubbornness may be their demise with too little, too late, and outreaching for a couple of schools 3,000 miles away. We'll see.

There has been a lot of buzz coming out of Tallahassee. Becoming independent first before joining the SEC may be an ESPN requirement since that grants distance between the relationship of ESPN to the ACC and ESPN to the SEC and would give ESPN more freedom to accommodate the movement without being central to it, at least in perception. AllTideUP had referenced at one point a 2 to 3 week span which might exist before announcements. We'll see.

An opinion from an ESPN senior writer.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...ealignment

“ There is significant resistance among other ACC members, for obvious reasons. Few schools are willing to take less television money based on ratings and marketability. Florida State has touted its viewership metrics -- an average of 3.09 million viewers for regular-season games in 2014-21 to top the league -- much to the chagrin of other schools.

Wake Forest, for example, has taken the time over the past month to push back. In the latest edition of the Wake Forest athletic director John Currie's newsletter, he notes that since August 2019, Wake Forest has been the fastest-growing brand in the Power 5, with a 115% growth in its fan base during that span.

Schools have privately questioned the brand and marketability data Florida State has touted, including its assertion that if conference revenues were removed, the Seminoles would rank No. 3 in the SEC and Big Ten in revenue generated.”

Changing the revenue distribution model in the ACC will be a rough road. What schools currently in the ACC are willing to accept less revenue? Not Wake Forest while making strides.

ESPN is not going to dump a pile of new cash into the ACC. FSU is stuck unless they can muster enough support to fracture that GoR.

The ACC doesn’t appear to agree on much of anything.

(08-17-2023 10:49 AM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  

(08-14-2023 02:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(08-14-2023 01:56 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  There is much buzz in South Carolina concerning Clemson withdrawing from the ACC and going fb Independent, at first, if necessary. The University of South Carolina, at least as a public face and with the official voting to come, supports Clemson to the SEC. Clemson and South Carolina are going to play each other in football, basketball, and baseball, regardless. May as well have the games as "in-conference", particularly if the SEC "ups" the number of required SEC football games for each school.
I spoke to a local SC legislator, casually, a couple of days ago, and he expressed the state legislature has Clemson's back as exiting negotiations may be forthcoming/continuing. There's been debate on this board about sovereignty clauses; but apparently it is a real factor. The ACC trying to sue the State of South Carolina may not work. Pre-GoR, South Carolina has experience in withdrawing from the ACC. Suing media revenue distributors may be a separate matter.

Whether Clemson and FSU will be the first to leave the ACC and join the SEC as the initial pair, is a popular viewpoint with a number of college sports bloggers and beat writers.

https://www.sportskeeda.com/college-foot...12-schools

What JRsec said sounds plausible in a collective exit strategy from the ACC. Leaving one or two at a time, the remaining ACC schools will haul in much cash and they may be less inclined to exit soon themselves.

I like ATU's point about Wake Forest. Overall, they are better athletically than given credit. I would not be critical if the SEC absorbed them; though I deem it quite unlikely. The real issue with Wake is that they have the smallest undergraduate student body in the P5/4. That's more in the ballpark with Rice and Tulsa in terms of students.

I would not dismiss UVA and VPI going somewhere together, even to the BIG. If UNC and NCSU head to the SEC, I doubt the SEC would seek to add Duke.

If the SEC strategy (via ESPN) is to block off the deeper south from the BIG (and whatever the "lesser" B12 further attempts), taking Miami and Georgia Tech makes sense. There's USF if the BIG/B12 becomes interested in them.

I actually prefer "regional" models. The SEC has done it right so far. I have not been a fan of mega-sizes over 16 members, but that is the direction and pattern it is going nationwide. The PAC collapsed as part of the process for failing to be proactive. The ACC may be next to be depleted, overhauled, or disbursed into three other conferences. Divisiveness and stubbornness may be their demise with too little, too late, and outreaching for a couple of schools 3,000 miles away. We'll see.

There has been a lot of buzz coming out of Tallahassee. Becoming independent first before joining the SEC may be an ESPN requirement since that grants distance between the relationship of ESPN to the ACC and ESPN to the SEC and would give ESPN more freedom to accommodate the movement without being central to it, at least in perception. AllTideUP had referenced at one point a 2 to 3 week span which might exist before announcements. We'll see.

An opinion from an ESPN senior writer.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...ealignment

“ There is significant resistance among other ACC members, for obvious reasons. Few schools are willing to take less television money based on ratings and marketability. Florida State has touted its viewership metrics -- an average of 3.09 million viewers for regular-season games in 2014-21 to top the league -- much to the chagrin of other schools.

Wake Forest, for example, has taken the time over the past month to push back. In the latest edition of the Wake Forest athletic director John Currie's newsletter, he notes that since August 2019, Wake Forest has been the fastest-growing brand in the Power 5, with a 115% growth in its fan base during that span.

Schools have privately questioned the brand and marketability data Florida State has touted, including its assertion that if conference revenues were removed, the Seminoles would rank No. 3 in the SEC and Big Ten in revenue generated.”

Changing the revenue distribution model in the ACC will be a rough road. What schools currently in the ACC are willing to accept less revenue? Not Wake Forest while making strides.

ESPN is not going to dump a pile of new cash into the ACC. FSU is stuck unless they can muster enough support to fracture that GoR.

The ACC doesn’t appear to agree on much of anything.

Andrea's last line was the most significant thing she said, as that is the descriptor that tells me the conference has no future beyond perhaps it is legally bound to do.

The issue of Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina and N.C. State leaving, and likely the Virginia schools and possibly Miami, is still up in the air. The trick ESPN will have to pull off should they also see an upside to further consolidation, which I believe they do see already, is to place 5 more in the Big 12. Georgia Tech, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, should be a lock for that. Duke has options which they would take should the worst happen. Otherwise, they would desire status quo. Boston College is quietly horrified at the prospect and Wake is howling about it. But no matter what is happening with those Notre Dame is the 12th vote but only when the time comes.

The networks are driving this realignment, not the conferences. That is why the PAC 12 had no bidders of note. FOX and ESPN have convinced themselves that two rival leagues are what they need to focus advertising money for the regular season and especially to drive the playoffs. They also want a breakaway so that including the G5 doesn't prove to be a ratings drag. So, for now a P3 is the answer and eventually that becomes the Super Two.

This is exactly the indecision and disunity which precipitated the decline in the Big 12 and the implosion of the PAC 12. Same song, third verse.