1. Toledo- Not head and shoulders better than the top tier, but inconsistently consistent? Depth has been tested and TONS of players have filled their role. Toledo hasn't won close games in a long while, so it's cool to see the offense or defense step up when they need to. A loss isn't out of the question, and even an 11-1 team probably shouldn't garner a top 25 ranking, but is certainly capable to beat those caliber teams. The next 3 games could make this the most special UT season since 2001.
2. NIU- a 2 pt loss on the road vs. Toledo may be what keeps the Huskies from Detroit. A Spot where they are possibly good enough to deserve. NIU believes! Good luck to whichever G5 matches up with them in a bowl... BC is looking better now, and making Ohio look pedestrian may have shown the rest of the league some deficiencys in Ohios team.
3. Miami- This Miami team could be slotted at 2, but with Gabbert going down for the rest of the season, NIU is trending better. Aveon is more than capable of getting Miami to Detroit, and their kicking game could save them from a loss to UB or Ohio.
4. Ohio- Sputtering a bit, and not proving to have an offense worth pulling away from the WMUs of the conference (there are a lot of those teams in the MAC). We could see a 17-7 title game again if Ohio pulls it together down the stretch...
5. BG- The Falcons have a run game better than one I've seen in quite some time from them. Overall a pretty good defense that forces turnovers.
6. WMU- controversial pick but hear me out... Covered 4 straight vs. @Toledo, @Miss St, Miami and @Ohio. They weren't supposed to win any of those, but as the schedule relaxes, WMU is playing better than the current record.
7. UB- Can't argue 3-1 in the MAC. But have drawn an easy slate to start MAC play. The fact that UB still turns you over and can score better than 8 MAC teams, has to be out of the basement.
8. EMU- Will likely go bowling again, but the lack of offensive fire power leaves little room for error. I expect the Eagles to stay within single digits of Toledo which shows you how close these squads are. Computer rankings hate the Eagles.
9. BSU- The recent win and overall newly stingy defense sets BSU a tinge above the Chips.
10. CMU- What is their identity? They play well at home, and can beat anyone outside of the top 3 teams. Recency bias has them here. Don't take it to heart.
11. Akron
12. Kent

IMO:

- Toledo: They've got the most powerful O potential, but it's not well grounded enough as it should be. But their D isn't bad and can step up. Their win over @Miami which is a tough place to win at, easily makes them #1.

- NIU: An improved NIU team. Their win at home vs EMU wasn't impressive, but EMU has a good D. But still, it was at home and not on the B&W prison field, so it puts them in position to still have room to prove their O is fully on the right track. And they do have a good D.

- Ohio: They lost to @NIU, their O can move the ball pretty decently, but too much inconsistency and can also be stopped from scoring sufficiently by anyone. However, their D is really solid which makes them a good team. If they're playing with their O on track --- look out.

- Miami: They have a good D that can really step up, but their loss at home to Toledo after getting whipped in the 1st half makes them not too impressive. They have time to turn the tables, though. They play Ohio next week to figure things out.

- BGSU: They impressed people by not having a relatively close game against Akron which happened to too many of their opponents. They beat @GA-Tech convincingly, and only lost to @Liberty by 10 due to giving up *5* turnovers. BGSU is inconsistent. It's like they could beat anyone, but lose to anyone handily. They got whipped by Ohio & Miami, but aside from that -- a decent team with the ability to be more than that.

- EMU: The fighting Emoos have a great D -- but no O. Granted, scoring little against NIU, especially on the road, is to be expected against a team without too solid an offense. But their O does seem to be improving a bit, giving them a slight edge over CMU and WMU.

- WMU: The reason they're better than CMU right now is how things have played out after the season got settled in. WMU is in rebuilding mode, so their performance will be unpredictable somewhat and vulnerable to come up short in close games. They are still finding their way, but are the "dangerous" team. With their new starting QB being good, if they don't have many penalties, and their D plays up to their potential, they could beat almost anyone in the MAC, and certainly can to the ones below.

- CMU: The reason they're better than Buffalo, is because Buffalo's also reeling. CMU only beat New Hampshire by a very small margin. They've been losing lately and are seemingly worse now than the beginning of the season when they did beat a good SB team.

- Buffalo: IMO, they're in a tie with Ball State below, right right now. They're reeling and BSU has been improving the last couple weeks. They're 3-1 in the MAC tho! Yeah, but two of those were against Akron by only 3 barely doing so & Kent State in an adequate but not too impressive of a win. They did crush CMU at home which indicates they could rise, but they lost to BGSU by 10 at home even though that wasn't unexpected and respectable as far as not wanting to be in the bottom end of the MAC. However, losing to FCS Fordham and getting absolutely crushed at home by Liberty overwhelms their respectable loss to @Louisiana.

- Ball State: Taking Toledo down to the wire with their surprisingly improved D, and taking out CMU with their D apparently in the last two games -- can't say I'd rather face them than Buffalo, or CMU. If they play a really close game @BGSU, while Buffalo expectedly getting quite solidly beat by @Toledo -- they'd be over Buffalo, and also CMU if NIU handles them well.

- Akron: They're above Kent State because even though they got destroyed by @BGSU and NIU, they played close against @Temple, @Indiana, and @Buffalo by 3pts or less. And also only lost by a TD to @CMU, while winning their FCS game and not dropping the ball on that.

- Kent St: A reboot year for them. They got CRUSHED by UCF and Fresno St. They had a somewhat respectable game against @Arkansas losing by basically 3 TDs, and won their FCS game. But outside of that, no small positives remaining even when you try and put them in a good light. They got Crushed by Ohio, lost by 20 to Miami-OH, and also lost by 3 possessions to Buffalo. Sure, you can say they played @EMU reasonably close; I guess that's a bit of a positive given it was at EMU... but they gave up 28 points... to EMU! Yikes. That's the most amt of points EMU's scored all season, sans their easy FCS team with whom they only scored 5 more pts on.

Shame UT blew that Illinois game. Would have a real shot at 12-0.

(10-22-2023 06:19 PM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  Shame UT blew that Illinois game. Would have a real shot at 12-0.

The team wouldn't change for the better if the Illini simply didn't moss us on 4th and 5 from their side of the 50. One play changes the record and perception of this team... I don't see a top 25 team when Toledo plays, I wouldn't if that play hadn't happened. Not a single 4 quarter game has been played fully and up to par or what they're capable of... Toledo is very good, but could be playing better. IMO QB and RB play is better than WMU in 2016, and the DBs and DL is comparable. Toledo has 3+ draft picks on the defense. But that WMU team beats Toledo in its current form, 31-14

Ya gotta show me 4 quarters until I really feel like Illinois was an outlier and that UT is better than that. We've shown to be equally that good... As good as a 5 to 7 win B1G squad.

Quote:I don't see a top 25 team when Toledo plays, I wouldn't if that play hadn't happened.

I slightly disagree a bit, as I think it could have a positive (or not positive at all) effect on desire to get better once grounded in the conference season, to protect oneself from not being undefeated in a race for the NY6 spot. How a team responds varies, though.

Quote:Not a single 4 quarter game has been played fully and up to par or what they're capable of...

I agree on that; I haven't analyzed them as much as you have, but that's the impression I get -- except for that one D1AA gimme-game that they scored 70pts on and gave up hardly any.

Quote:IMO QB and RB play is better than WMU in 2016, and the DBs and DL is comparable.

I disagree on the QB play. He makes too many mistakes despite his greater raw talent, to override WMU's QB who didn't make mistakes + was a darn good QB outside of that too. I believe that's a contributing reason as to why Toledo isn't playing up to their full potential for all 4Q of games.

Quote:Ya gotta show me 4 quarters until I really feel like Illinois was an outlier and that UT is better than that. We've shown to be equally that good... As good as a 5 to 7 win B1G squad.

I do believe UT is better than that -- not up to their full potential. However, yes, that does reflect their whole year. So it wasn't an outlier performance either way. One of those games where the home team is most likely to win. Assuming on their SoS, I would expect them to be bowl bound in the B1G, sans streaks of bad luck outside not playing to their very full potential. Likely they'd get 2 OOC wins (2 non-power G5s; 1 not all that powerful P5), and likely go 4-5 in the B1G with a kind Conf Schedule.

(10-22-2023 08:00 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  

Quote:I don't see a top 25 team when Toledo plays, I wouldn't if that play hadn't happened.

I slightly disagree a bit, as I think it could have a positive (or not positive at all) effect on desire to get better once grounded in the conference season, to protect oneself from not being undefeated in a race for the NY6 spot. How a team responds varies, though.

Quote:Not a single 4 quarter game has been played fully and up to par or what they're capable of...

I agree on that; I haven't analyzed them as much as you have, but that's the impression I get -- except for that one D1AA gimme-game that they scored 70pts on and gave up hardly any.

Quote:IMO QB and RB play is better than WMU in 2016, and the DBs and DL is comparable.

I disagree on the QB play. He makes too many mistakes despite his greater raw talent, to override WMU's QB who didn't make mistakes + was a darn good QB outside of that too. I believe that's a contributing reason as to why Toledo isn't playing up to their full potential for all 4Q of games.

Quote:Ya gotta show me 4 quarters until I really feel like Illinois was an outlier and that UT is better than that. We've shown to be equally that good... As good as a 5 to 7 win B1G squad.

I do believe UT is better than that -- not up to their full potential. However, yes, that does reflect their whole year. So it wasn't an outlier performance either way. One of those games where the home team is most likely to win. Assuming on their SoS, I would expect them to be bowl bound in the B1G, sans streaks of bad luck outside not playing to their very full potential. Likely they'd get 2 OOC wins (2 non-power G5s; 1 not all that powerful P5), and likely go 4-5 in the B1G with a kind Conf Schedule.

Agree on most points. DQ played well vs. Miami. No real mistakes. Punt block in the back and lack of run success at RB held back his point production. He seems to be missing passes long and out of danger moreso the past 3 weeks. I didn't think your QB was nearly as good as Woodside. Finn is a tougher gameplan. Passing game with Davis was reliable as can be though.

Toledo
Miami
Ohio
----
Northern Illinois
Bowling Green St
----
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Buffalo
----
Western Michigan
Ball St
----
Kent St
Akron

I just threw this together quick.
Toledo's looking at a 1-loss season which I thought was likely before the season started looking at their schedule
Ohio Defense is very good but doesn't have the offense to keep up w/ the top 2 teams.
Called it when Northern Illinois started 1-4 they'd get it turned around. Bowling Green much better than what was thought early on too
Central, Eastern & Buffalo hard to rank. Can beat anyone. Can lose to anyone
Western & Ball St just aren't good but not as bad as Kent & Akron

Two elements about the Ohio offense.

1) Rourke still seems tentative following the ACL. Not a major but minor impact.
2) Recievers are dropping a lot of easy catches. Their performance as a unit is down.
3) MAC teams have plenty of tape on the Ohio passing attack to properly game plan.

2022 Ohio snuck up on the MAC with many expecting a poor season. This year the X is on their back.

Its a combinaton of little things.

(10-22-2023 11:10 PM)Garden_KC Wrote:  Two elements about the Ohio offense.

1) Rourke still seems tentative following the ACL. Not a major but minor impact.
2) Recievers are dropping a lot of easy catches. Their performance as a unit is down.
3) MAC teams have plenty of tape on the Ohio passing attack to properly game plan.

2022 Ohio snuck up on the MAC with many expecting a poor season. This year the X is on their back.

Its a combinaton of little things.

This.

Also shows how hard it is for Toledo to do what they've done with a target on their back consistently, every game, every year. I can't remember a time Toledo has gotten a "poor effort" against them... or "uninspired game." The close games Ohio, Toledo or Miami gets are generally from opponents largest heaviest punches.

(10-22-2023 11:21 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(10-22-2023 11:10 PM)Garden_KC Wrote:  Two elements about the Ohio offense.

1) Rourke still seems tentative following the ACL. Not a major but minor impact.
2) Recievers are dropping a lot of easy catches. Their performance as a unit is down.
3) MAC teams have plenty of tape on the Ohio passing attack to properly game plan.

2022 Ohio snuck up on the MAC with many expecting a poor season. This year the X is on their back.

Its a combinaton of little things.

This.

Also shows how hard it is for Toledo to do what they've done with a target on their back consistently, every game, every year. I can't remember a time Toledo has gotten a "poor effort" against them... or "uninspired game." The close games Ohio, Toledo or Miami gets are generally from opponents largest heaviest punches.

And its not like some of these MAC teams have no talent like what you find at the bottom of FCS conferences. They all have guys that will make NFL training camps.

Nobody in the MAC can roll with 5 stars automatically win like Mich/OSU.

(10-22-2023 11:33 PM)Garden_KC Wrote:  

(10-22-2023 11:21 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(10-22-2023 11:10 PM)Garden_KC Wrote:  Two elements about the Ohio offense.

1) Rourke still seems tentative following the ACL. Not a major but minor impact.
2) Recievers are dropping a lot of easy catches. Their performance as a unit is down.
3) MAC teams have plenty of tape on the Ohio passing attack to properly game plan.

2022 Ohio snuck up on the MAC with many expecting a poor season. This year the X is on their back.

Its a combinaton of little things.

This.

Also shows how hard it is for Toledo to do what they've done with a target on their back consistently, every game, every year. I can't remember a time Toledo has gotten a "poor effort" against them... or "uninspired game." The close games Ohio, Toledo or Miami gets are generally from opponents largest heaviest punches.

And its not like some of these MAC teams have no talent like what you find at the bottom of FCS conferences. They all have guys that will make NFL training camps.

Nobody in the MAC can roll with 5 stars automatically win like Mich/OSU.

No repeat champ since 2011-2012. It's why I looked like a fool betting the Toledo over 9 wins. It rarely happens. Every team is one injury away from making or breaking their season. And one good season too many and the HC is gone and the program has to rebuild. It's fun riding the highs.

Games Saturday confirm my current rankings. WMU has a shot to win the rest.

I feel less positive about our win over Ohio. They seem pretty overrated now having lost two of their last three and barely escaping with a win last weekend.

(10-29-2023 02:31 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  I feel less positive about our win over Ohio. They seem pretty overrated now having lost two of their last three and barely escaping with a win last weekend.

Barely escaping Western is impressive to me. Miami and Toledo only did barely better than escaping. The Broncos pummeled BSU and EMU which is impressive.

Ohio looks like one of their usual Solich teams record wise.

(10-29-2023 10:47 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(10-29-2023 02:31 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  I feel less positive about our win over Ohio. They seem pretty overrated now having lost two of their last three and barely escaping with a win last weekend.

Barely escaping Western is impressive to me. Miami and Toledo only did barely better than escaping. The Broncos pummeled BSU and EMU which is impressive.

Ohio looks like one of their usual Solich teams record wise.

WMU and their offense scares me. They seem like when they are clicking on offense they can beat anyone in the MAC. According to the stats, they are 2nd in MAC in total offense at #71.

(10-29-2023 11:56 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  

(10-29-2023 10:47 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(10-29-2023 02:31 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  I feel less positive about our win over Ohio. They seem pretty overrated now having lost two of their last three and barely escaping with a win last weekend.

Barely escaping Western is impressive to me. Miami and Toledo only did barely better than escaping. The Broncos pummeled BSU and EMU which is impressive.

Ohio looks like one of their usual Solich teams record wise.

WMU and their offense scares me. They seem like when they are clicking on offense they can beat anyone in the MAC. According to the stats, they are 2nd in MAC in total offense at #71.

I mean, I'm pretty sure every team "can." They still appear clearly behind the top 3 to a degree. Is NIU in that top 4 to seperate from WMU pucheyness? I think they are. WMU, BG, NIU and Ohio almost look like their own tier. No one below of them has been consistent enough.

No order:
1. UT, MU
2. NIU, OU, BG, WMU
3. CMU, UB, BSU, EMU
126. KSU, AKRON

(10-29-2023 11:56 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  

(10-29-2023 10:47 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(10-29-2023 02:31 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  I feel less positive about our win over Ohio. They seem pretty overrated now having lost two of their last three and barely escaping with a win last weekend.

Barely escaping Western is impressive to me. Miami and Toledo only did barely better than escaping. The Broncos pummeled BSU and EMU which is impressive.

Ohio looks like one of their usual Solich teams record wise.

WMU and their offense scares me. They seem like when they are clicking on offense they can beat anyone in the MAC. According to the stats, they are 2nd in MAC in total offense at #71.

I was impressed with WMU when we played earlier this season, the new staff has them playing a lot better than they are on paper for a brand new regime with a ton of lost transfers from last season.

OU has a decent defense and Rourke has experience, but man that team is undisciplined. Maybe it was just yesterday, the rain, or whatever but they shot themselves in the foot with bad penalties, special teams miscues, missed tackles, etc. so many times. It’s truly baffling how that program has good teams year after year but implodes every fall to kill their chances at ending the MAC title drought (whether in the regular season or Detroit).

(10-29-2023 01:22 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  

(10-29-2023 11:56 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  

(10-29-2023 10:47 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(10-29-2023 02:31 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  I feel less positive about our win over Ohio. They seem pretty overrated now having lost two of their last three and barely escaping with a win last weekend.

Barely escaping Western is impressive to me. Miami and Toledo only did barely better than escaping. The Broncos pummeled BSU and EMU which is impressive.

Ohio looks like one of their usual Solich teams record wise.

WMU and their offense scares me. They seem like when they are clicking on offense they can beat anyone in the MAC. According to the stats, they are 2nd in MAC in total offense at #71.

I was impressed with WMU when we played earlier this season, the new staff has them playing a lot better than they are on paper for a brand new regime with a ton of lost transfers from last season.

OU has a decent defense and Rourke has experience, but man that team is undisciplined. Maybe it was just yesterday, the rain, or whatever but they shot themselves in the foot with bad penalties, special teams miscues, missed tackles, etc. so many times. It’s truly baffling how that program has good teams year after year but implodes every fall to kill their chances at ending the MAC title drought (whether in the regular season or Detroit).

It's taken me a couple of days to come out of my funk and face this board after Saturday's debacle. I can't explain or figure out why we did shoot ourselves in the foot so often in that game or why we couldn't get it together or why we seemed to be lacking energy and enthusiasm for such a big occasion. I hardly ever do this, but I will give Miami props for taking it to us after we had a solid start. Miami did not wilt whereas I can't say the same for us. I'm hoping we get it together in the last few games and end on a high note because next year looks quite bleak given the amount of personnel we are going to lose. Believe it or not, this team can win out including a win in a bowl game and still get to 10 wins for the second consecutive season. As for the drought to end the MAC football title chase, well, the beat goes on. Ok, I'm going back to hiding now! LOL

Quote:I mean, I'm pretty sure every team "can." They still appear clearly behind the top 3 to a degree.

Well right now, WMU's O is just fine due to us finally finding a QB who can do pretty well and be consistent. Our running game has been good, but without a threat of a passing game, it can't make any real difference. So now things are clicking, and our O is something to have to stand up against. EMU has had a very good D this year (but one of the worst Os in the MAC).

WMU was set to improve this year as it went on, getting settled into everything (assuming our coaching staff is doing a good job).

Our D isn't good though. Gives up big plays, and we give up yardage. It can step up on some drives, but if your O is running on all potential cylinders as a team with nice O potential -- you won't have problems scoring on us thru the game. But we're still dangerous.

Albin is 19-16 at Ohio in year 3. The jury is still out on him. Losses like the NIU game and the Miami game with all the experience on the roster makes you wonder if last more than a couple more years from now. Ohio losses a lot after this year. Ohio doesn't recruit as well as Toledo and other top MAC schools. I would expect a losing season next year at Ohio. Albin is likely gone after that. This was the year and he can't motivate his team to run the football like Solich did. less than 2 yards a carry with 2 good backs and an experienced line. Albin is lucky Ohio was good last season. He bought himself a couple more years. Performances like Saturday get coaches fired. He can't motivate his team. Sloppy play and dumb penalties for three years. Poor special teams play. That is on Albin and his staff. Albin was OC under Solich and the offense is struggling this year.
Albin is back on the hot seat in Athens. is he guy that can win a championship. Offense struggled in Detroit in the title game and again in the biggest game of the year on Saturday. It falls on him. Where is the running game. When Roark leaves Ohio is in big trouble.