I personally think they are better than JMU, Liberty, Air Force, and close with Tulane and Fresno.... I feel like the MAC is getting snubbed in the rankings. What are everyone else's thoughts? Do they have a chance to slide in if they run the table the rest of the way?

(11-01-2023 09:27 AM)astr083 Wrote:  I personally think they are better than JMU, Liberty, Air Force, and close with Tulane and Fresno.... I feel like the MAC is getting snubbed in the rankings. What are everyone else's thoughts? Do they have a chance to slide in if they run the table the rest of the way?

At the end of the day, Toledo's schedule is not particularly difficult and they have a loss. I think Air Force makes sense as the choice right now, and if they take a loss, then maybe Liberty. The Flames schedule isn't any tougher than Toledo's schedule -- it may be a bit softer, actually -- but at least they are running the table.

I haven't been following James Madison, Tulane, or Fresno State as closely. Perhaps one or more of those schools deserve it more than Liberty.

Fresno has 2 P5 wins. But all it takes is a an 8-4 Boise State to win a one off title game or SMU to knock off Tulane to make it very interesting. The snub was Air Force at 25th in the rankings... of course they slotted the G5 teams 24 and 25.

If the Rockets run the table and get some help along the way, they could be the NY6 selection.

Air Force has been pretty unstoppable last three years. I'd give them the nod right now.

(11-01-2023 11:24 AM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  If the Rockets run the table and get some help along the way, they could be the NY6 selection.

This.

Plus, IMHO Toledo hasn't really been that dominant. I could see them taking a loss before the MAC championship game.

(11-01-2023 02:59 PM)wleakr Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 11:24 AM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  If the Rockets run the table and get some help along the way, they could be the NY6 selection.

This.

Plus, IMHO Toledo hasn't really been that dominant. I could see them taking a loss before the MAC championship game.

Luckily the teams Toledo wasn't dominant against have started winning. UMass beat Army. NIU rallied off 3 straight before CMU. WMU is playing better. BSU knocked off CMU after they played UT. SJSU has won 3 in a row. If the trend continues I like Ball State to hold down BG and make it a close low scoring game.

Toledo played pretty pedestrian yesterday and turned it over 4 times and beat the large 16 pt spread. In MAC play, ya just gotta win. Toledo is gettable for every team left on the schedule, but UT has shown it can win close games. The defense looks like it may evolve into the best D in the league. Seeing other Miami and Ohio scores... that's not far fetched.

(11-01-2023 11:28 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  Air Force has been pretty unstoppable last three years. I'd give them the nod right now.

Air Force:
Robert Morris 42-7
Sam Houston St (0-8) 13-3
Utah St (3-5) 39-21
San Jose St (4-5) 45-20
San Diego St (3-5) 49-10
Wyoming(5-3) 34-27
Navy(3-4) 17-6
11/4 Army(2-6)
11/11Hawaii (2-7)
11/18 Nevada-Las Vegas(6-2)
11/25 Boise St(4-4)

Normally the G5 has 3 or 4 teams ranked. When I looked last week, there were quite a few really good G5 teams that weren't ranked. Only a couple were (Air Force & one other). The polls seem harder than has been the norm to the G5 this year.

Toledo is probably behind quite a few of those other 1 loss G5 teams. I think they have a good shot tho if they ran the table which I am expecting them too.

(11-01-2023 06:21 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 11:28 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  Air Force has been pretty unstoppable last three years. I'd give them the nod right now.

Air Force:
Robert Morris 42-7
Sam Houston St (0-8) 13-3
Utah St (3-5) 39-21
San Jose St (4-5) 45-20
San Diego St (3-5) 49-10
Wyoming(5-3) 34-27
Navy(3-4) 17-6
11/4 Army(2-6)
11/11Hawaii (2-7)
11/18 Nevada-Las Vegas(6-2)
11/25 Boise St(4-4)

One of the MAC's best teams lost to that SDSU team they crushed. And the current top MAC team, Toledo, barely beat a SJSU team they also crushed.

To top it off, the MWC is the top rated G5 this year. So if they win it and go undefeated, they should get the nod.

(11-01-2023 07:20 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 06:21 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 11:28 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  Air Force has been pretty unstoppable last three years. I'd give them the nod right now.

Air Force:
Robert Morris 42-7
Sam Houston St (0-8) 13-3
Utah St (3-5) 39-21
San Jose St (4-5) 45-20
San Diego St (3-5) 49-10
Wyoming(5-3) 34-27
Navy(3-4) 17-6
11/4 Army(2-6)
11/11Hawaii (2-7)
11/18 Nevada-Las Vegas(6-2)
11/25 Boise St(4-4)

One of the MAC's best teams lost to that SDSU team they crushed. And the current top MAC team, Toledo, barely beat a SJSU team they also crushed.

To top it off, the MWC is the top rated G5 this year. So if they win it and go undefeated, they should get the nod.

SJSU still gets UNLV and Fresno and control its destiny in the MWC. Their schedule is the number 1 G5 schedule... so them winning the MWC or at least knocking off Fresno would help UT a lot.

(11-01-2023 07:20 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 06:21 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 11:28 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  Air Force has been pretty unstoppable last three years. I'd give them the nod right now.

Air Force:
Robert Morris 42-7
Sam Houston St (0-8) 13-3
Utah St (3-5) 39-21
San Jose St (4-5) 45-20
San Diego St (3-5) 49-10
Wyoming(5-3) 34-27
Navy(3-4) 17-6
11/4 Army(2-6)
11/11Hawaii (2-7)
11/18 Nevada-Las Vegas(6-2)
11/25 Boise St(4-4)

One of the MAC's best teams lost to that SDSU team they crushed. And the current top MAC team, Toledo, barely beat a SJSU team they also crushed.

To top it off, the MWC is the top rated G5 this year. So if they win it and go undefeated, they should get the nod.

They're #2 right behind the Sun Belt Conference in the Massey ratings:

https://masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings?c=1

Toledo would have to win out and every other G5 would have to lose 2.

(11-02-2023 07:29 AM)GRBRONCO Wrote:  Toledo would have to win out and every other G5 would have to lose 2.

Not true really. If Liberty loses at all they fall behind us. No P5s played with best win (JSU) to be worse than Toledos 2 over Miami by a good margin. AFA also hasn't and won't play a P5 and have a weak schedule to date. If they lose they fall behind Toledo as well IMO. What's propping them up is they've won 10 the last 2 seasons and beat a couple teams soundly. Some also questionable closer games to poor opponents. Like 0-7 SHSU 13-3.

Toledo needs some help... illinois winning out would be nice!

(11-02-2023 09:10 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(11-02-2023 07:29 AM)GRBRONCO Wrote:  Toledo would have to win out and every other G5 would have to lose 2.

Not true really. If Liberty loses at all they fall behind us. No P5s played with best win (JSU) to be worse than Toledos 2 over Miami by a good margin. AFA also hasn't and won't play a P5 and have a weak schedule to date. If they lose they fall behind Toledo as well IMO. What's propping them up is they've won 10 the last 2 seasons and beat a couple teams soundly. Some also questionable closer games to poor opponents. Like 0-7 SHSU 13-3.

Toledo needs some help... illinois winning out would be nice!

Air Force played only one good team in 2022, Boise St.
They lost. AF's other losses in 2022 were to 7-6 Wyoming 14-17 and 6-7 Utah St 27-34.

(11-02-2023 09:27 AM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(11-02-2023 09:10 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(11-02-2023 07:29 AM)GRBRONCO Wrote:  Toledo would have to win out and every other G5 would have to lose 2.

Not true really. If Liberty loses at all they fall behind us. No P5s played with best win (JSU) to be worse than Toledos 2 over Miami by a good margin. AFA also hasn't and won't play a P5 and have a weak schedule to date. If they lose they fall behind Toledo as well IMO. What's propping them up is they've won 10 the last 2 seasons and beat a couple teams soundly. Some also questionable closer games to poor opponents. Like 0-7 SHSU 13-3.

Toledo needs some help... illinois winning out would be nice!

Air Force played only one good team in 2022, Boise St.
They lost. AF's other losses in 2022 were to 7-6 Wyoming 14-17 and 6-7 Utah St 27-34.

Still have 10 win recognition. It's part of the reason this season is important for Toledo... be on the radar prior to the 12 team playoff. Keep winning.

(11-02-2023 05:39 AM)Polish Hammer Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 07:20 PM)epasnoopy Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 06:21 PM)Boca Rocket Wrote:  

(11-01-2023 11:28 AM)epasnoopy Wrote:  Air Force has been pretty unstoppable last three years. I'd give them the nod right now.

Air Force:
Robert Morris 42-7
Sam Houston St (0-8) 13-3
Utah St (3-5) 39-21
San Jose St (4-5) 45-20
San Diego St (3-5) 49-10
Wyoming(5-3) 34-27
Navy(3-4) 17-6
11/4 Army(2-6)
11/11Hawaii (2-7)
11/18 Nevada-Las Vegas(6-2)
11/25 Boise St(4-4)

One of the MAC's best teams lost to that SDSU team they crushed. And the current top MAC team, Toledo, barely beat a SJSU team they also crushed.

To top it off, the MWC is the top rated G5 this year. So if they win it and go undefeated, they should get the nod.

They're #2 right behind the Sun Belt Conference in the Massey ratings:

https://masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings?c=1

Note that is not the Massey Composite (Massey Composite no longer computes conference rankings), that is the Massey algorithm itself. In the Massey ratings, MWC and SBC are 7.11 vs 7.09, so they are a lot closer to level footing than, say, the gap between the ACC and the Sunbelt West (7.69 to 7.32), even though in a ranking both would show up as "one step down".

Also, as it is not Massey composite, it's more prone to whatever biases come with its algorithm ... Sagarin would flip both the MWC / SBC overall comparison as well as the MAC-East / CUSA comparison (and therefore automatically put MAC-overall even further above CUSA).

If Air Force wins out, they will likely go, as the MWC championship game will be their resume builder game.

If Air Force stumbles and Tulane wins out, they will likely go.

And then if Air Force and Tulane both stumble, JMU would be next in line, except they are transitioning, so unless the SBC changes their decision to not allow JMU to the championship game, JMU is not going to be the SBC champion, so the SBC is probably out.

So then you get into how Air Force and Tulane stumbled, and if it happened in exactly the correct way to not bring the MWC or AAC school that made the stumble into the next contender ... eg, Fresno State is in the "also receiving votes" line in the AP.

But if the stumble does not crown an heir to the Access spot in either the MWC or AAC ... well, then Toledo is the last "also receiving votes" Go5 school.

So awfully long shot, but at least if Toledo is the western division school with the most conference wins, it gets to go to the CCG in Detroit and have a chance to win the conference championship on the field ... unlike JMU.

I do feel like the MAC is getting snubbed a bit in the rankings this year.

When the math had WMU heading to the Cotton Bowl, you could just feel the powers that be trying to find a way to get, I think it was Navy to leap above the Broncs and get into that game. WMU didn’t falter and nobody could stop it, but if there’s any possible way, a Tulane or Air Force is going to get the nod over Toledo.

(11-01-2023 09:27 AM)astr083 Wrote:  I personally think they are better than JMU, Liberty, Air Force, and close with Tulane and Fresno.... I feel like the MAC is getting snubbed in the rankings. What are everyone else's thoughts? Do they have a chance to slide in if they run the table the rest of the way?

I don't know. They almost lost to Northern Illinois and Ball State and struggled with UMass for a long time.