March 9, 2024

Conference Tournaments

Atlantic Sun (ASUN)

#1 Eastern Kentucky 31.7% chance of winning, seeking 1st NCAAT win, (3 modern appearances, 2014 last appearance)
#2 Stetson 20.7%, 1st NCAAT tournament (51 misses), (0, never)
#3 Lipscomb 26.5%, 1st win, (1, 2018)
#4 Austin Peay, 9.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#5 North Florida, 3.7%, 1st win, (1, 2015)
#6 North Alabama, 2.9%, 1st win (1 miss), (0, never)
#7 Florida Gulf Coast, 2.5%, Elite 8, (3, 2017)
#8 Queens, 0.7%, Provisional Eligible 2027, (0, never)
#9 Kennesaw State, 1.8%, 1st win, (1, 2023, streak 1)
#10 Jacksonville (FL), 0.4%, 1st win modern, (1, 1986)
#11 Central Arkansas, 0.0% excluded from tournament, 1st tournament (12 misses) (0, never)
#12 Bellarmine, 0.0% excluded from tournament, Provisional Eligible 2025 (0, never)

First Round
-----------
Jacksonville (FL) 92, Kennesaw State 86
Queens 69, Florida Gulf Coast 63

Quarterfinals
------------
Jacksonville (FL) 67, Eastern Kentucky 65
Stetson 83, Queens 71
North Alabama 77, Lipscomb 75
Austin Peay 101, North Florida 98 (OT)

Losses by Eastern Kentucky and Lipscomb, who had been given a collective 58% chance of winning the tournament, opens up an opportunity for Stetson and the other three semifinalists.

The ASUN reseeds its quarterfinals, so Stetson has home court advantage so long as they remain in the tournament. The Hatters have the second longest number of non-appearances behind the six schools who were eligible for the first NCAA tournament in 1938.

Jacksonville (FL) knocked off the regular season champion Jacksonville State (AL) in 2022. That tournament was won by Bellarmine who was (and is) a provisional school not eligible for the NCAA tournament. The AQ was given to Jacksonville State as the regular season champion. The elimination of Queens forecloses that possibility for Eastern Kentucky gaining the AQ this season.

#2 Stetson 51.9%, 1st NCAAT tournament (51 misses), (0, never)
#4 Austin Peay, 27.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#6 North Alabama, 13.9%, 1st win (1 miss), (0, never)
#10 Jacksonville (FL), 6.9%, 1st win modern, (1, 1986)

Semifinals
---------
Stetson 88, Jacksonville (FL) 87
Austin Peay 77, North Alabama 71

Stetson is one win away from their first ever trip to the NCAA tournament

#2 Stetson 66.2%, 1st NCAAT tournament (51 misses), (0, never)
#4 Austin Peay, 33.8%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)

Horizon League

#1 Oakland 21.7%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Youngstown State 29.4%, 1st tournament (42 misses), (0, never)
#3 Green Bay 4.9%, Sweet 16, (5, 2014)
#4 Wright State 20.9%, Round of 32, (4, 2022)
#5 Northern Kentucky 5.5%, 1st win, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Milwaukee 4.3%, Elite 8, (4, 2014)
#7 Cleveland State 5.1%, Elite 8, (3, 2021)
#8 Fort Wayne 8.1%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0, never)
#9 Robert Morris 0.1%, Round of 32, (6, 2015)
#10 IUPUI 0.00%, 1st win (1, 2003)
#11 Detroit Mercy 0.01%, Sweet 16, (3, 2012)

First Round
-----------
Milwaukee 83, Detroit Mercy 69
Cleveland State 85, IUPUI 66
Fort Wayne 78, Robert Morris 63

The favored team (and host) wins all three first round games.

#1 Oakland 20.2%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Youngstown State 29.2%, 1st tournament (42 misses), (0, never)
#3 Green Bay 5.0%, Sweet 16, (5, 2014)
#4 Wright State 21.3%, Round of 32, (4, 2022)
#5 Northern Kentucky 5.5%, 1st win, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Milwaukee 4.4%, Elite 8, (4, 2014)
#7 Cleveland State 4.9%, Elite 8, (3, 2021)
#8 Fort Wayne 9.5%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0, never)

Quarterfinals
------------
Oakland 85, Fort Wayne 75
Cleveland State 82, Youngstown State 66
Milwaukee 95, Green Bay 84
Northern Kentucky 99, Wright State 84

The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th seeds all go down at home.

#1 Oakland 38.3%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#5 Northern Kentucky 24.3%, 1st win, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Milwaukee 15.2%, Elite 8, (4, 2014)
#7 Cleveland State 22.1%, Elite 8, (3, 2021)

Patriot League

#1 Colgate 72.4%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#2 Boston University 8.3%, 1st win modern, (5, 2011)
#3 Lafayette 3.5%, 1st win, (3, 2015)
#4 American 6.6%, 1st win, (3, 2014)
#5 Bucknell 2.1%, Sweet 16, (8, 2018)
#6 Lehigh 5.4%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012)
#7 Navy 1.1%, Final Four, (6, 1998)
#8 Army 0.3%, 1st tournament (84 misses), (0, never)
#9 Holy Cross 0.03%, Round of 32, (6, 2016)
#10 Loyola Maryland 0.1%, 1st win, (2, 2012)

First Round
-----------
Navy 64, Loyola Maryland 48
Holy Cross 84, Army 68

This ends Army's quest for a NCAAT berth. The streak now stands at 85 seasons.

#1 Colgate 73.7%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#2 Boston University 7.6%, 1st win modern, (5, 2011)
#3 Lafayette 3.4%, 1st win, (3, 2015)
#4 American 6.3%, 1st win, (3, 2014)
#5 Bucknell 2.1%, Sweet 16, (8, 2018)
#6 Lehigh 5.4%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012)
#7 Navy 1.5%, Final Four, (6, 1998)
#9 Holy Cross 0.1%, Round of 32, (6, 2016)

Colgate 81, Holy Cross 64
Boston University 70, Navy 61
Lehigh 76, Lafayette 61
Bucknell 80, American 57

#1 Colgate 76.0%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#2 Boston University 9.3%, 1st win modern, (5, 2011)
#5 Bucknell 5.8%, Sweet 16, (8, 2018)
#6 Lehigh 8.9%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012)

Sun Belt Conference

#1 Appalachian State 31.6%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 43.9%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#3 Troy 9.5%, 1st win, (2, 2017)
#4 Arkansas State 6.0%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#5 Louisiana 5.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Southern Miss. 0.7%, 1st win, (3, 2012)
#7 Georgia State 1.1%, Sweet 16, (6, 2022)
#8 South Alabama 0.6%, Sweet 16, (6, 2008)
#9 Georgia Southern 0.2%, 1st win, (2, 1992)
#10 Marshall 0.6%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#11 Texas State 0.6%, 1st win, (2, 1997)
#12 Louisiana Monroe 0.04%, 1st win, (6, 1996)
#13 Coastal Carolina 0.02%, 1st win (4, 2015)
#14 Old Dominion 0.1%, Sweet 16, (10, 2019)

First Round
-----------
Texas State 92, Old Dominion 83 (OT)
Coastal Carolina 75, Louisiana-Monroe 71

#1 Appalachian State 31.9%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 43.6%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#3 Troy 9.3%, 1st win, (2, 2017)
#4 Arkansas State 6.0%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#5 Louisiana 5.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Southern Miss. 0.6%, 1st win, (3, 2012)
#7 Georgia State 1.1%, Sweet 16, (6, 2022)
#8 South Alabama 0.6%, Sweet 16, (6, 2008)
#9 Georgia Southern 0.2%, 1st win, (2, 1992)
#10 Marshall 0.6%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#11 Texas State 1.0%, 1st win, (2, 1997)
#13 Coastal Carolina 0.04%, 1st win (4, 2015)

Second Round
--------------
Louisiana 80, Coastal Carolina 66
Texas State 75, Southern Mississippi 59
Marshall 86, Georgia State 74
Georgia Southern 76, South Alabama 71

#1 Appalachian State 32.6%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 43.5%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#3 Troy 8.9%, 1st win, (2, 2017)
#4 Arkansas State 5.3%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#5 Louisiana 6.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#9 Georgia Southern 0.4%, 1st win, (2, 1992)
#10 Marshall 1.3%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#11 Texas State 1.9%, 1st win, (2, 1997)

Quarterfinals
------------
Appalachian State 85 Georgia Southern 80 (OT)
James Madison 81, Marshall 64
Texas State 74, Troy 68
Arkansas State 89, Louisiana 62

#1 Appalachian State 32.2%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 54.4%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#4 Arkansas State 9.4%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#11 Texas State 4.0%, 1st win, (2, 1997)

Big South

#1 High Point 39.8%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#2 UNC-Asheville 23.9%, Round of 32, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Gardner-Webb 10.0%, First Win, (1, 2019)
#4 Winthrop 13.4%, Sweet 16, (11, 2021)
#5 Longwood 7.2%, First Win, (1, 2022)
#6 Presbyterian 2.1%, 1st tournament (10 misses), (0, never)
#7 Charleston Southern, 0.5%, (1, 1997)
#8 SC-Upstate 0.5%, 1st tournament (0, never)
#9 Radford 2.7%, Round of 32 (3, 2018)

First Round
-----------
Radford 67, SC-Upstate 60

#1 High Point 38.6%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#2 UNC-Asheville 23.9%, Round of 32, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Gardner-Webb 10.0%, First Win, (1, 2019)
#4 Winthrop 13.6%, Sweet 16, (11, 2021)
#5 Longwood 7.1%, First Win, (1, 2022)
#6 Presbyterian 2.2%, 1st tournament (10 misses), (0, never)
#7 Charleston Southern, 0.6%, (1, 1997)
#9 Radford 4.1%, Round of 32 (3, 2018)

Quarterfinals
------------
High Point 77, Radford 63
UNC-Asheville 60, Charleston Southern 55
Gardner Webb 61, Presbyterian 60
Longwood 69, Winthrop 56

Winthrop losing to Longwood enhances High Point's odds for first tournament

#1 High Point 51.2%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#2 UNC-Asheville 23.6%, Round of 32, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Gardner-Webb 11.7%, First Win, (1, 2019)
#5 Longwood 13.5%, First Win, (1, 2022)

Semifinals
---------
Longwood 80, High Point 59 (OT)
UNC-Asheville 83, Gardner-Webb 72 (OT)

#2 UNC-Asheville 55.9%, Round of 32, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#5 Longwood 44.1%, First Win, (1, 2022)

Northeast Conference (NEC)

#1 Central Connecticut 41.8%, 1st win, (3, 2007)
#2 Merrimack 37.7%, 1st tournament (first attempt), (0, never)
#3 Sacred Heart 9.4%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#4 Le Moyne 5.5%, provisional not eligible for NCAAT (0, never)
#5 Fairleigh Dickinson 2.0%, Sweet 16, (7, 2023 streak of 1)
#6 Wagner 3.1%, 1st win, (1, 2022)
#7, Long Island University 0.2%, 1st win (5, 2018)
#8, St. Francis (PA) 0.2%, 1st win (1, 1991)
#9, Stonehill 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, provisional not eligible for NCAAT

Quarterfinals
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Central Connecticut 71, St. Francis (PA) 68
Merrimack 72, Long Island University 66
Wagner 60, Sacred Heart 57
Le Moyne 82, Fairleigh Dickinson 61

#1 Central Connecticut 44.4%, 1st win, (3, 2007)
#2 Merrimack 39.1%, 1st tournament (first attempt), (0, never)
#4 Le Moyne 58.7%, provisional not eligible for NCAAT, (0, never)
#6 Wagner 7.9%, 1st win, (1, 2022)

Merrimack continues quest for NCAA tournament in first opportunity as a full DI member. Le Moyne eliminates last season's Cinderella, FDU. Sacred Heart misses out on 24th opportunity to dance.

Semifinals
---------
Wagner 66, Central Connecticut 56
Merrimack 61, Le Moyne 51

#2 Merrimack 74.3%, 1st tournament (first attempt), (0, never)
#6 Wagner 25.7%, 1st win, (1, 2022)

Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)

#1 Little Rock 28.0%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#2 Tennessee-Martin 16.5%, 1st tournament (30 misses), (0, never)
#3 Morehead State 41.5%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)
#4 Western Illinois 7.5%, 1st tournament (41 misses), (0, never)
#5 Tennessee State 2.9%, 1st win, (2, 1994)
#6 SIUE 2.1%, 1st tournament (10 misses), (0, never)
#7 Eastern Illinois 1.0%, 1st win (2, 2001)
#8 Southern Indiana 0.5%, provisional not eligible for NCAAT, (0, never)
#9, Tennessee Tech 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, 1st modern tournament (0, 1963)
#10 Southeast Missouri 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, 1st win, (2, 2023, streak of 1)
#11 Lindenwood 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, provisional not eligible for 8-team tournament, (0, never)

First Round
-----------
Tennessee State 78, Southern Indiana 64
SIUE 68, Eastern Illinois 57

#1 Little Rock 27.5%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#2 Tennessee-Martin 16.6%, 1st tournament (30 misses), (0, never)
#3 Morehead State 40.5%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)
#4 Western Illinois 7.0%, 1st tournament (41 misses), (0, never)
#5 Tennessee State 4.6%, 1st win, (2, 1994)
#6 SIUE 2.1%, 3.8% tournament (10 misses), (0, never)

Second Round
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Morehead State 78, SIUE 63
Western Illinois 61, Tennessee State 59

#1 Little Rock 24.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#2 Tennessee-Martin 13.3%, 1st tournament (30 misses), (0, never)
#3 Morehead State 51.8%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)
#4 Western Illinois 10.8%, 1st tournament (41 misses), (0, never)

Semifinals
---------
Little Rock 82, Western Illinois 57
Morehead State 84, Tennessee State 78

#1 Little Rock 34.7%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#3 Morehead State 65.3%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)

Semifinals
---------
Morehead State 69, Little Rock 55

Morehead State Eagles

Morehead State doubles, with a regular season tri-championship and a conference tournament final. The Eagles will dance for the fourth time, and first since 2021, where they will seek their first Sweet 16.

Colonial Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)

#1 Charleston 25.7%, Sweet 16, (6, 2023, streak of 1)
#2 Drexel 19.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2021)
#3 Hofstra 20.8%, 1st win, (2, 2001)
#4 UNC-Wilmington 18.9%, Round of 32, (6, 2017)
#5 Towson 6.4%, 1st win, (2, 1991)
#6 Delaware 4.3%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#7 Stony Brook 1.8%, 1st win, (1, 2016)
#8 Monmouth 1.6%, Round of 32, (4, 2006)
#9 Campbell 0.2%, 1st win, (1, 1992)
#10 Northeastern 0.9%, 1st win, modern (6, 2019)
#11 Elon 0.1%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#12 NC A&T 0.00%, Round of 32 (7, 2013)
#13 William & Mary 0.04%, 1st tournament (84 misses)
#14 Hampton 0.01%, Sweet 16, (6, 2016)

First Round
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Hampton 56, Elon 55
William & Mary 79, NC A&T 66

#1 Charleston 25.7%, Sweet 16, (6, 2023, streak of 1)
#2 Drexel 19.0%, Sweet 16, (5, 2021)
#3 Hofstra 20.7%, 1st win, (2, 2001)
#4 UNC-Wilmington 19.2%, Round of 32, (6, 2017)
#5 Towson 6.2%, 1st win, (2, 1991)
#6 Delaware 4.6%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#7 Stony Brook 1.8%, 1st win, (1, 2016)
#8 Monmouth 1.6%, Round of 32, (4, 2006)
#9 Campbell 0.2%, 1st win, (1, 1992)
#10 Northeastern 0.9%, 1st win, modern (6, 2019)
#13 William & Mary 0.1%, 1st tournament (84 misses)
#14 Hampton 0.01%, Sweet 16, (6, 2016)

Second Round
--------------
Towson 67, William & Mary 56
Delaware 80, Hampton 50
Stony Brook 75, Northeastern 65
Monmouth 90, Campbell 67

#1 Charleston 24.3%, Sweet 16, (6, 2023, streak of 1)
#2 Drexel 18.7%, Sweet 16, (5, 2021)
#3 Hofstra 19.4%, 1st win, (2, 2001)
#4 UNC-Wilmington 17.9%, Round of 32, (6, 2017)
#5 Towson 7.7%, 1st win, (2, 1991)
#6 Delaware 6.1%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#7 Stony Brook 3.3%, 1st win, (1, 2016)
#8 Monmouth 2.7%, Round of 32, (4, 2006)

Missouri Valley Conference (MVC)

#1 Indiana State 36.6%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Drake 30.1%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Bradley 17.2%, Elite 8, (5, 2019)
#4 Northern Iowa 7.2%, Elite 8, (8, 2016)
#5 Belmont 3.3%, Round of 32, (8, 2019)
#6 Southern Illinois 2.7%, Elite 8, (8, 2007)
#7 Illinois State 0.5%, Sweet 16, (4, 1998)
#8 Murray State 1.1%, Sweet 16, (16, 2022)
#9 Missouri State 1.0%, Elite 8, (6, 1999)
#10 Evansville 0.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 1999)
#11 Illinois-Chicago 0.2%, 1st win, (3, 2004)
#12 Valparaiso 0.02%, Elite 8, (9, 2015)

First Round
-----------
Belmont 86, Valparaiso 61
Illinois-Chicago 84-Southern Illinois
Evansville 59, Illinois State 53
Missouri State 60, Murray State 35

#1 Indiana State 35.5%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Drake 30.9%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Bradley 19.6%, Elite 8, (5, 2019)
#4 Northern Iowa 6.5%, Elite 8, (8, 2016)
#5 Belmont 4.1%, Round of 32, (8, 2019)
#9 Missouri State 2.3%, Elite 8, (6, 1999)
#10 Evansville 0.4%, Sweet 16, (4, 1999)
#11 Illinois-Chicago 0.7%, 1st win, (3, 2004)

Quarterfinals
------------
Indiana State 75, Missouri State 59
Drake 79, Evansville 58
Bradley 74, Illinois-Chicago 47
Indiana State 75, Missouri State 59

Favorites win by average of 20 points.

#1 Indiana State 41.6%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Drake 29.4%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Bradley 20.4%, Elite 8, (5, 2019)
#4 Northern Iowa 8.5%, Elite 8, (8, 2016)

Semifinals
---------
Indiana State 94, Northern Iowa 72
Drake 72, Bradley 67

#1 Indiana State 55.2%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Drake 44.8%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 1)

Southern Conference (SoCon)

#1 Samford 38.3%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#2 UNC-Greensboro 18.0%, 1st win, (4, 2021)
#3 Chattanooga 11.1%, Elite 8, (9, 2022)
#4 West Carolina 14.4%, 1st win, (1, 1996)
#5 Furman 9.0%, Sweet 16, (1, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Wofford 4.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2019)
#7 East Tennessee State 3.5%, Sweet 16, (9, 2017)
#8 Mercer 1.0%, Sweet 16, (2, 2014)
#9 The Citadel 0.4%, First tournament (84 misses), (0, never)
#10 VMI 0.0%, First tournament modern, (0, 1977)

First Round
-----------
East Tennessee State 98, VMI 66
Mercer 84, Citadel 76

#1 Samford 37.2%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#2 UNC-Greensboro 17.1%, 1st win, (4, 2021)
#3 Chattanooga 11.3%, Elite 8, (9, 2022)
#4 West Carolina 14.8%, 1st win, (1, 1996)
#5 Furman 9.1%, Sweet 16, (1, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Wofford 4.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2019)
#7 East Tennessee State 4.4%, Sweet 16, (9, 2017)
#8 Mercer 1.8%, Sweet 16, (2, 2014)

Quarterfinals
------------
Samford 70, Mercer 57
East Tennessee State 73, UNC-Greensboro 62
Chattanooga 75, Wofford 57
Furman 79, West Carolina 76 (OT)

#1 Samford 49.0%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#3 Chattanooga 22.0%, Elite 8, (9, 2022)
#5 Furman 18.1%, Sweet 16, (1, 2023, streak of 1)
#7 East Tennessee State 10.9%, Sweet 16, (9, 2017)

America East

#1 Vermont 59.8%, Sweet 16, (9, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 UMass Lowell 24.8%, First Tournament (5 misses), (0, never)
#3 Bryant 8.5%, 1st win, (1, 2022)
#4 New Hampshire 2.8% First Tournament (68 misses), (0, never)
#5 Binghampton 1.1%, 1st win, (1, 2009)
#6 Maine 1.8%, 1st Tournament (70 misses), (0,never)
#7 UMBC 0.6%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#8 Albany 0.7%, Round of 32, (5, 2015)
#9 NJIT excluded from 8-team tournament, First Tournament (13 misses), (0, never_

Quarterfinals
------------
Vermont 75, Albany 72
UMass Lowell 94, Binghampton 89 (OT)
Bryant 84, Maine 58
New Hampshire 77, Binghamton

Maine misses out for 71st time.

#1 Vermont 64.6%, Sweet 16, (9, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 UMass Lowell 23.6%, First Tournament (5 misses), (0, never)
#3 Bryant 9.1%, 1st win, (1, 2022)
#4 New Hampshire 2.7% First Tournament (68 misses), (0, never)

Big Sky

#1 Eastern Washington 29.8%, 1st win, (3, 2021)
#2 Northern Colorado 10.5%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0. never)
#3 Montana 22.3%, Sweet 16, (11, 2019)
#4 Weber State 25.8%, Sweet 16, (6, 2016)
#5 Montana State 3.5%, 1st win, (4, 2023, streak of 2)
#6 Portland State 4.0%, 1st win, (2, 2009)
#7 Northern Arizona 0.6%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#8 Idaho State 2.6%, 1st win modern, (1, 1987)
#9 Idaho 0.4%, 1st win modern, (2, 1990)
#10 Sacramento State 0.6% 1st tournament (31 misses)

First Round
-----------
Idaho State 68, Northern Arizona 60
Sacramento State 72, Idaho 64

#1 Eastern Washington 29.4%, 1st win, (3, 2021)
#2 Northern Colorado 9.9%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0. never)
#3 Montana 22.4%, Sweet 16, (11, 2019)
#4 Weber State 25.8%, Sweet 16, (6, 2016)
#5 Montana State 3.5%, 1st win, (4, 2023, streak of 2)
#6 Portland State 3.9%, 1st win, (2, 2009)
#8 Idaho State 3.9%, 1st win modern, (1, 1987)
#10 Sacramento State 1.2% 1st tournament (31 misses)

Summit League

#1 South Dakota State 29.0%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#2 Kansas City 12.8%, 1st tournament (33 misses), (0, never)
#3 North Dakota 11.5%, 1st win, (1, 2017)
#4 St. Thomas 25.1%, Provisional not eligible to 2026, (0, never)
#5 North Dakota State 6.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 2019)
#6 Omaha 6.3%, 1st tournament (10), (0, never)
#7 Denver 5.2%, 1st tournament (66), (0, never)
#8 Oral Roberts 3.6%, Elite 8, (5, 2023, streak 1)
#9 South Dakota 0.5%, 1st tournament (10), (0, never)

First Round
-----------
Oral Roberts 77, South Dakota 62

#1 South Dakota State 29.0%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#2 Kansas City 12.8%, 1st tournament (33 misses), (0, never)
#3 North Dakota 11.5%, 1st win, (1, 2017)
#4 St. Thomas 25.1%, Provisional not eligible to 2026, (0, never)
#5 North Dakota State 6.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 2019)
#6 Omaha 6.3%, 1st tournament (10), (0, never)
#7 Denver 5.2%, 1st tournament (66), (0, never)
#8 Oral Roberts 3.6%, Elite 8, (5, 2023, streak 1)

Second Round
-------------
South Dakota State 79, Oral Roberts 63
Denver 61, Kansas City 60

#1 South Dakota State 41.5%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#3 North Dakota 12.0%, 1st win, (1, 2017)
#4 St. Thomas 22.8%, Provisional not eligible to 2026, (0, never)
#5 North Dakota State 5.5%, Sweet 16, (4, 2019)
#6 Omaha 6.8%, 1st tournament (10), (0, never)
#7 Denver 11.5%, 1st tournament (66), (0, never)

West Coast Conference (WCC)

#1 St. Mary's 43.7%, Elite 8, (11, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 Gonzaga 47.7%, 1st championship, (25, 2023, streak of 24)
#3 San Francisco 6.1%, 1st win modern, (2, 2022)
#4 Santa Clara 2.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 1996)
#5 San Diego 0.01%, Sweet 16, (3, 2008)
#6 Portland 0.00%, 1st win, (1, 1996)
#7 Loyola Marymount 0.2%, Final 4, (3, 1990)
#8 Pepperdine 0.04%, Sweet 16, (7, 2002)
#9 Pacific 0.00%, Sweet 16, (5, 2013)

First Round
-----------
Pepperdine 102, Pacific 43

#1 St. Mary's 43.9%, Elite 8, (11, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 Gonzaga 47.7%, 1st championship, (25, 2023, streak of 24)
#3 San Francisco 6.1%, 1st win modern, (2, 2022)
#4 Santa Clara 2.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 1996)
#5 San Diego 0.01%, Sweet 16, (3, 2008)
#6 Portland 0.00%, 1st win, (1, 1996)
#7 Loyola Marymount 0.2%, Final 4, (3, 1990)
#8 Pepperdine 0.1%, Sweet 16, (7, 2002)

Second Round
-------------
San Diego 57, Pepperdine 52
Portland 78, Loyola Marymount 70

#1 St. Mary's 43.9%, Elite 8, (11, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 Gonzaga 47.7%, 1st championship, (25, 2023, streak of 24)
#3 San Francisco 6.1%, 1st win modern, (2, 2022)
#4 Santa Clara 2.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 1996)
#5 San Diego 0.1%, Sweet 16, (3, 2008)
#6 Portland 0.1%, 1st win, (1, 1996)

Third Round
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San Francisco 72, Portland 51
Santa Clara 104, San Diego 79

#1 St. Mary's 43.7%, Elite 8, (11, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 Gonzaga 47.8%, 1st championship, (25, 2023, streak of 24)
#3 San Francisco 6.1%, 1st win modern, (2, 2022)
#4 Santa Clara 2.2%, Sweet 16, (4, 1996)

Teams That Are In

#Net Ranking School (Conference AQ), Seeking, (tournaments since 1985 including 2024, latest appearance, streak including 2024)

#106 Morehead State (OVC AQ), Sweet 16 (4, 2024, streak of 1)

March 12, 2024 update

Stetson Hatters (ASUN) have qualified for the NCAA tournament for the first time in 52 attempts.

UMass Lowell (Am East) wins to advance to Saturday's final against Vermont.

Denver (Summit), Merrimack (NEC), New Hampshire (Am East), and Sacramento State (Big West) are eliminated. The losses by Denver and New Hampshire mean that all six schools who were eligible for the initial NCAA Tournament in 1938, have yet again failed to qualify.

8 still have a chance to qualify, with six seeing their initial action Wednesday night: UC-Riverside (Big West), Quinnipiac (MAAC), Maryland-Eastern Shore (MEAC), Grambling (SWAC), Cal Baptist (WAC), and Utah Valley (WAC). Quinnipiac and Grambling are the top seeds in their respective conferences.

Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) is the final team to get into action on Thursday. They start the day after Grambling as the SWAC splits their quarterfinal action over two days.

Never-Beens

There are 38 DI schools that have never been to the NCAA Tournament. Six of them could have been in the first tournament in 1939. Three of these have failed to qualify for 84 seasons (2020 excluded). Three have dropped to lower level of competition only to later return. Another school, St, Francis (NY), had missed 84 tournaments before they dropped athletics entirely following the 2023 season.

Army qualified for the 1968 NCAA tournament, but coach Bobby Knight declined the invitation believing that the Black Knights would do better in the NIT tournament. They lost to Notre Dame in the first round of the NIT.

For each school the following information is given:

(1) The number of tournaments missed;
(2) The school name and conference;
(3) The probability of qualifying for the 2024 tournament;
(4) The projected conference seed; and
(5) For conferences in which not all schools qualify for the conference tournament, the probability of qualifying for the conference tournament.

The probability of qualifying is that of winning their conference tournament according to teamrankings.com , which does a Monte Carlo simulation based on current records, future schedule, and estimated team strength.

The measure I use is the probability of winning the conference tournament. It is quit unlikely that any of these schools will win an at-large berth. The highest NET Ranking for any of these schools is 111th for High Point.

84 Army (Patriot) eliminated first round
84 The Citadel (SoCon) eliminated first round
84 William & Mary (CAA) eliminated first round
70 Maine (Am E) eliminated quarterfinal
68 New Hampshire (Am E) eliminated semifinal
66 Denver (Summit) eliminated final
54 UTRGV (WAC) Eliminated, cannot qualify for conference tournament.
51 Stetson Hatters ASUN Champion
45 Grambling (SWAC) 12.7%, #1
42 Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) 6.9%, #5
42 UMES (MEAC) 1.5%, #7
42 Youngstown State (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
41 Western Illinois (OVC) eliminated semifinal
38 Chicago State (Ind.) #297 NET will not get at-large
33 Kansas City (Summit) eliminated quarterfinal
31 Sacramento State (Big Sky) eliminated semifinal
30 Tennessee-Martin (OVC) eliminated semifinal
24 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) eliminated did not make conference tournament
24 Quinnipiac (MAAC) 20.9%, #1
23 Elon (CAA) eliminated first round
23 High Point (Big South) eliminated semifinal
23 Sacred Heart (NEC) eliminated quarterfinal
21 UC-Riverside (Big West) 1.6%, #5
20 Fort Wayne (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
20 Northern Colorado (Big Sky) eliminated quarterfinal
13 NJIT (Am E) eliminated did not make conference tournament
13 Utah Valley (WAC) 1.9%, #5
12 Central Arkansas (ASUN) eliminated did not make conference tournament
11 SC Upstate (Big South) eliminated first round
10 Presbyterian (Big South) eliminated quarterfinal
10 SIUE (OVC) eliminated second round
10 South Dakota (Summit) eliminated first round
8 Omaha (Summit) eliminated semifinal
5 UMass Lowell (Am E) 28.2%, #2
5 Incarnate Word (Southland)eliminated did not make conference tournament
1 Cal Baptist (WAC) 1.0%, #8
1 North Alabama (ASUN) eliminated semifinal
0 Merrimack (NEC) eliminated final

Ranked by Probability

Stetson Hatters (51) ASUN Champion

28.2% UMass Lowell (Am E) (5), #2
20.9% Quinnipiac (MAAC) (24), #1
12.7% Grambling (SWAC) (45), #1
6.9% Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) (42), #5
1.9% Utah Valley (WAC) (13), #5
1.6% UC-Riverside (Big West) (21), #5
1.5% UMES (MEAC) (42), #7
1.0% Cal Baptist (WAC) (1), #8

29 Teams Have Been Eliminated for this season.

Merrimack (NEC) (0 misses), #2 eliminated final
Sacramento State (Big Sky) (31), #10 eliminated semifinal
Denver (Summit) (66), #7[s] eliminated final
[s]New Hampshire (Am E) (68), #4 eliminated semifinal
Omaha (Summit) (8), #6 eliminated semifinal
Northern Colorado (Big Sky) (20), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
Maine (Am E) (70), #6 eliminated quarterfinal
Kansas City (Summit) (33), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
High Point (Big South) (23), #1 eliminated semifinal
The Citadel (SoCon) (84), #9 eliminated first round
Western Illinois (OVC) (41), #4 eliminated semifinal
William & Mary (CAA) (84), #13 eliminated first round
Tennessee-Martin (OVC) (30), #2 eliminated semifinal
Elon (CAA) (23), #11 eliminated first round
Presbyterian (Big South) (10), #6 eliminated semifinal
South Dakota (Summit) (10), #9 eliminated first round
Youngstown State (Horizon) (42), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
Fort Wayne (Horizon) (20), #8 eliminated quarterfinal
SIUE (OVC) (10), #6 eliminated 2nd round
North Alabama (ASUN) (1), #6 eliminated semifinal
Sacred Heart (NEC) (23), #3 eliminated first round
SC Upstate (Big South) (11), #8 eliminated first round
Army (Patriot) (84), #8 eliminated first round
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) (24) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Incarnate Word (Southland) (5) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Central Arkansas (ASUN) (12) eliminated did not make conference tournament
NJIT (Am E) (13) eliminated did not make conference tournament
UTRGV (WAC) (54) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Chicago State (Ind.) (38) #297 NET will not get at-large

The mean expectation is 1.85 new teams. If we assume each conference is independent of each other, and no team will get an at-large berth, then the probability of first timers is:

1 38.5%
2 41.5%
3 16.6%
4 3.1%
5 0.3%

March 13, 2024 update

Stetson Hatters (ASUN) have qualified for the NCAA tournament for the first time in 52 attempts.

6 schools still have a chance to qualify.

UMass Lowell (Am East) plays in Saturday's final against Vermont.

Maryland-Eastern Shore (MEAC) and Utah Valley (WAC) are eliminated. UC-Riverside (Big West) and Cal Baptist (WAC) win to advance to Thursday's second round.

Grambling (SWAC) and Quinnipiac (MAAC) win to advance to Friday's semifinal. Both are #1 seeds in their respective conference tournaments. Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) play in tonight's quarterfinal.


Never-Beens

There are 38 DI schools that have never been to the NCAA Tournament. Six of them could have been in the first tournament in 1939. Three of these have failed to qualify for 84 seasons (2020 excluded). Three have dropped to lower level of competition only to later return. Another school, St, Francis (NY), had missed 84 tournaments before they dropped athletics entirely following the 2023 season.

Army qualified for the 1968 NCAA tournament, but coach Bobby Knight declined the invitation believing that the Black Knights would do better in the NIT tournament. They lost to Notre Dame in the first round of the NIT.

For each school the following information is given:

(1) The number of tournaments missed;
(2) The school name and conference;
(3) The probability of qualifying for the 2024 tournament;
(4) The projected conference seed; and
(5) For conferences in which not all schools qualify for the conference tournament, the probability of qualifying for the conference tournament.

The probability of qualifying is that of winning their conference tournament according to teamrankings.com , which does a Monte Carlo simulation based on current records, future schedule, and estimated team strength.

The measure I use is the probability of winning the conference tournament. It is quit unlikely that any of these schools will win an at-large berth. The highest NET Ranking for any of these schools is 111th for High Point.

84 Army (Patriot) eliminated first round
84 The Citadel (SoCon) eliminated first round
84 William & Mary (CAA) eliminated first round
70 Maine (Am E) eliminated quarterfinal
68 New Hampshire (Am E) eliminated semifinal
66 Denver (Summit) eliminated final
54 UTRGV (WAC) eliminated, did not make conference tournament.
51 Stetson Hatters ASUN Champion
45 Grambling (SWAC) 23.1%, #1
42 Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) 6.9%, #5
42 UMES (MEAC) eliminated quarterfinal
42 Youngstown State (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
41 Western Illinois (OVC) eliminated semifinal
38 Chicago State (Ind.) #297 NET will not get at-large
33 Kansas City (Summit) eliminated quarterfinal
31 Sacramento State (Big Sky) eliminated semifinal
30 Tennessee-Martin (OVC) eliminated semifinal
24 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) eliminated did not make conference tournament
24 Quinnipiac (MAAC) 33.3%, #1
23 Elon (CAA) eliminated first round
23 High Point (Big South) eliminated semifinal
23 Sacred Heart (NEC) eliminated quarterfinal
21 UC-Riverside (Big West) 3.0%, #5
20 Fort Wayne (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
20 Northern Colorado (Big Sky) eliminated quarterfinal
13 NJIT (Am E) eliminated did not make conference tournament
13 Utah Valley (WAC) eliminated first round
12 Central Arkansas (ASUN) eliminated did not make conference tournament
11 SC Upstate (Big South) eliminated first round
10 Presbyterian (Big South) eliminated quarterfinal
10 SIUE (OVC) eliminated second round
10 South Dakota (Summit) eliminated first round
8 Omaha (Summit) eliminated semifinal
5 UMass Lowell (Am E) 28.2%, #2
5 Incarnate Word (Southland)eliminated did not make conference tournament
1 Cal Baptist (WAC) 2.3%, #8
1 North Alabama (ASUN) eliminated semifinal
0 Merrimack (NEC) eliminated final

Ranked by Probability

Stetson Hatters (51) ASUN Champion

33.3% Quinnipiac (MAAC) (24), #1
28.2% UMass Lowell (Am E) (5), #2
23.1% Grambling (SWAC) (45), #1
6.9% Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) (42), #5
3.0% UC-Riverside (Big West) (21), #5
2.3% Cal Baptist (WAC) (1), #8

31 Teams Have Been Eliminated for this season.

Utah Valley (WAC) (13 misses), #5 eliminated first round
UMES (MEAC) (42), #7 eliminated quarterfinal
Merrimack (NEC) (0 misses), #2 eliminated final
Sacramento State (Big Sky) (31), #10 eliminated semifinal
Denver (Summit) (66), #7 eliminated final
New Hampshire (Am E) (68), #4 eliminated semifinal
Omaha (Summit) (8), #6 eliminated semifinal
Northern Colorado (Big Sky) (20), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
Maine (Am E) (70), #6 eliminated quarterfinal
Kansas City (Summit) (33), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
High Point (Big South) (23), #1 eliminated semifinal
The Citadel (SoCon) (84), #9 eliminated first round
Western Illinois (OVC) (41), #4 eliminated semifinal
William & Mary (CAA) (84), #13 eliminated first round
Tennessee-Martin (OVC) (30), #2 eliminated semifinal
Elon (CAA) (23), #11 eliminated first round
Presbyterian (Big South) (10), #6 eliminated semifinal
South Dakota (Summit) (10), #9 eliminated first round
Youngstown State (Horizon) (42), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
Fort Wayne (Horizon) (20), #8 eliminated quarterfinal
SIUE (OVC) (10), #6 eliminated 2nd round
North Alabama (ASUN) (1), #6 eliminated semifinal
Sacred Heart (NEC) (23), #3 eliminated first round
SC Upstate (Big South) (11), #8 eliminated first round
Army (Patriot) (84), #8 eliminated first round
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) (24) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Incarnate Word (Southland) (5) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Central Arkansas (ASUN) (12) eliminated did not make conference tournament
NJIT (Am E) (13) eliminated did not make conference tournament
UTRGV (WAC) (54) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Chicago State (Ind.) (38) #297 NET will not get at-large

The mean expectation is 1.98 new teams. If we assume each conference is independent of each other, and no team will get an at-large berth, then the probability of first timers is:

1 31.5%
2 43.6%
3 20.8%
4 3.8%
5 0.2%

The most likely outcome is that one of Quinnipiac, UMass Lowell, or Grambling qualify. The second most likely outcome is that none of these qualify. There is an outside chance that two of these qualify.

March 10, 2024

Conference Tournaments

Atlantic Sun (ASUN)

#1 Eastern Kentucky 31.7% chance of winning, seeking 1st NCAAT win, (3 modern appearances, 2014 last appearance)
#2 Stetson 20.7%, 1st NCAAT tournament (51 misses), (0, never)
#3 Lipscomb 26.5%, 1st win, (1, 2018)
#4 Austin Peay, 9.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#5 North Florida, 3.7%, 1st win, (1, 2015)
#6 North Alabama, 2.9%, 1st win (1 miss), (0, never)
#7 Florida Gulf Coast, 2.5%, Elite 8, (3, 2017)
#8 Queens, 0.7%, Provisional Eligible 2027, (0, never)
#9 Kennesaw State, 1.8%, 1st win, (1, 2023, streak 1)
#10 Jacksonville (FL), 0.4%, 1st win modern, (1, 1986)
#11 Central Arkansas, 0.0% excluded from tournament, 1st tournament (12 misses) (0, never)
#12 Bellarmine, 0.0% excluded from tournament, Provisional Eligible 2025 (0, never)

First Round
-----------
Jacksonville (FL) 92, Kennesaw State 86
Queens 69, Florida Gulf Coast 63

Quarterfinals
------------
Jacksonville (FL) 67, Eastern Kentucky 65
Stetson 83, Queens 71
North Alabama 77, Lipscomb 75
Austin Peay 101, North Florida 98 (OT)

Losses by Eastern Kentucky and Lipscomb, who had been given a collective 58% chance of winning the tournament, opens up an opportunity for Stetson and the other three semifinalists.

The ASUN reseeds its quarterfinals, so Stetson has home court advantage so long as they remain in the tournament. The Hatters have the second longest number of non-appearances behind the six schools who were eligible for the first NCAA tournament in 1938.

Jacksonville (FL) knocked off the regular season champion Jacksonville State (AL) in 2022. That tournament was won by Bellarmine who was (and is) a provisional school not eligible for the NCAA tournament. The AQ was given to Jacksonville State as the regular season champion. The elimination of Queens forecloses that possibility for Eastern Kentucky gaining the AQ this season.

#2 Stetson 51.9%, 1st NCAAT tournament (51 misses), (0, never)
#4 Austin Peay, 27.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#6 North Alabama, 13.9%, 1st win (1 miss), (0, never)
#10 Jacksonville (FL), 6.9%, 1st win modern, (1, 1986)

Semifinals
---------
Stetson 88, Jacksonville (FL) 87
Austin Peay 77, North Alabama 71

Stetson is one win away from their first ever trip to the NCAA tournament

#2 Stetson 66.2%, 1st NCAAT tournament (51 misses), (0, never)
#4 Austin Peay, 33.8%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)

Championship
-------------
Stetson 94, Austin Peay 91

Stetson Hatters

Stetson takes advantage of the upset of conference champion Eastern Kentucky by #10 seed Jacksonville (FL) which gave the Hatters home court and the top seed for the remainder of the tournament to secure their first chance to dance ever (since 1972).

Stetson has shared the ASUN (TAAC) with Central Florida, Florida Atlantic, Troy, Centenary, and Hardin-Simmons, but has yet to take home a regular season championship. This is the Hatters' second 20+ win season. The other was in 1974. Stetson has now had two back-to-back winning seasons, after failing to have a winning season for 21 years (they were 16-16 in 2008).

Horizon League

#1 Oakland 21.7%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Youngstown State 29.4%, 1st tournament (42 misses), (0, never)
#3 Green Bay 4.9%, Sweet 16, (5, 2014)
#4 Wright State 20.9%, Round of 32, (4, 2022)
#5 Northern Kentucky 5.5%, 1st win, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Milwaukee 4.3%, Elite 8, (4, 2014)
#7 Cleveland State 5.1%, Elite 8, (3, 2021)
#8 Fort Wayne 8.1%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0, never)
#9 Robert Morris 0.1%, Round of 32, (6, 2015)
#10 IUPUI 0.00%, 1st win (1, 2003)
#11 Detroit Mercy 0.01%, Sweet 16, (3, 2012)

First Round
-----------
Milwaukee 83, Detroit Mercy 69
Cleveland State 85, IUPUI 66
Fort Wayne 78, Robert Morris 63

The favored team (and host) wins all three first round games.

#1 Oakland 20.2%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Youngstown State 29.2%, 1st tournament (42 misses), (0, never)
#3 Green Bay 5.0%, Sweet 16, (5, 2014)
#4 Wright State 21.3%, Round of 32, (4, 2022)
#5 Northern Kentucky 5.5%, 1st win, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Milwaukee 4.4%, Elite 8, (4, 2014)
#7 Cleveland State 4.9%, Elite 8, (3, 2021)
#8 Fort Wayne 9.5%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0, never)

Quarterfinals
------------
Oakland 85, Fort Wayne 75
Cleveland State 82, Youngstown State 66
Milwaukee 95, Green Bay 84
Northern Kentucky 99, Wright State 84

The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th seeds all go down at home.

#1 Oakland 38.3%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#5 Northern Kentucky 24.3%, 1st win, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Milwaukee 15.2%, Elite 8, (4, 2014)
#7 Cleveland State 22.1%, Elite 8, (3, 2021)

Patriot League

#1 Colgate 72.4%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#2 Boston University 8.3%, 1st win modern, (5, 2011)
#3 Lafayette 3.5%, 1st win, (3, 2015)
#4 American 6.6%, 1st win, (3, 2014)
#5 Bucknell 2.1%, Sweet 16, (8, 2018)
#6 Lehigh 5.4%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012)
#7 Navy 1.1%, Final Four, (6, 1998)
#8 Army 0.3%, 1st tournament (84 misses), (0, never)
#9 Holy Cross 0.03%, Round of 32, (6, 2016)
#10 Loyola Maryland 0.1%, 1st win, (2, 2012)

First Round
-----------
Navy 64, Loyola Maryland 48
Holy Cross 84, Army 68

This ends Army's quest for a NCAAT berth. The streak now stands at 85 seasons.

#1 Colgate 73.7%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#2 Boston University 7.6%, 1st win modern, (5, 2011)
#3 Lafayette 3.4%, 1st win, (3, 2015)
#4 American 6.3%, 1st win, (3, 2014)
#5 Bucknell 2.1%, Sweet 16, (8, 2018)
#6 Lehigh 5.4%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012)
#7 Navy 1.5%, Final Four, (6, 1998)
#9 Holy Cross 0.1%, Round of 32, (6, 2016)

Quarterfinal
-----------
Colgate 81, Holy Cross 64
Boston University 70, Navy 61
Lehigh 76, Lafayette 61
Bucknell 80, American 57

#1 Colgate 76.0%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#2 Boston University 9.3%, 1st win modern, (5, 2011)
#5 Bucknell 5.8%, Sweet 16, (8, 2018)
#6 Lehigh 8.9%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012)

Semifinal
---------
Colgate 68, Bucknell 65
Lehigh 84, Boston University 79 (OT)

Colgate is seeking a fifth consecutive tournament appearance

#1 Colgate 83.3%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#6 Lehigh 16.7%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012)

Sun Belt Conference

#1 Appalachian State 31.6%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 43.9%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#3 Troy 9.5%, 1st win, (2, 2017)
#4 Arkansas State 6.0%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#5 Louisiana 5.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Southern Miss. 0.7%, 1st win, (3, 2012)
#7 Georgia State 1.1%, Sweet 16, (6, 2022)
#8 South Alabama 0.6%, Sweet 16, (6, 2008)
#9 Georgia Southern 0.2%, 1st win, (2, 1992)
#10 Marshall 0.6%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#11 Texas State 0.6%, 1st win, (2, 1997)
#12 Louisiana Monroe 0.04%, 1st win, (6, 1996)
#13 Coastal Carolina 0.02%, 1st win (4, 2015)
#14 Old Dominion 0.1%, Sweet 16, (10, 2019)

First Round
-----------
Texas State 92, Old Dominion 83 (OT)
Coastal Carolina 75, Louisiana-Monroe 71

#1 Appalachian State 31.9%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 43.6%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#3 Troy 9.3%, 1st win, (2, 2017)
#4 Arkansas State 6.0%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#5 Louisiana 5.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Southern Miss. 0.6%, 1st win, (3, 2012)
#7 Georgia State 1.1%, Sweet 16, (6, 2022)
#8 South Alabama 0.6%, Sweet 16, (6, 2008)
#9 Georgia Southern 0.2%, 1st win, (2, 1992)
#10 Marshall 0.6%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#11 Texas State 1.0%, 1st win, (2, 1997)
#13 Coastal Carolina 0.04%, 1st win (4, 2015)

Second Round
--------------
Louisiana 80, Coastal Carolina 66
Texas State 75, Southern Mississippi 59
Marshall 86, Georgia State 74
Georgia Southern 76, South Alabama 71

#1 Appalachian State 32.6%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 43.5%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#3 Troy 8.9%, 1st win, (2, 2017)
#4 Arkansas State 5.3%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#5 Louisiana 6.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#9 Georgia Southern 0.4%, 1st win, (2, 1992)
#10 Marshall 1.3%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#11 Texas State 1.9%, 1st win, (2, 1997)

Quarterfinals
------------
Appalachian State 85 Georgia Southern 80 (OT)
James Madison 81, Marshall 64
Texas State 74, Troy 68
Arkansas State 89, Louisiana 62

#1 Appalachian State 32.2%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 54.4%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#4 Arkansas State 9.4%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#11 Texas State 4.0%, 1st win, (2, 1997)

Big South

#1 High Point 39.8%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#2 UNC-Asheville 23.9%, Round of 32, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Gardner-Webb 10.0%, First Win, (1, 2019)
#4 Winthrop 13.4%, Sweet 16, (11, 2021)
#5 Longwood 7.2%, First Win, (1, 2022)
#6 Presbyterian 2.1%, 1st tournament (10 misses), (0, never)
#7 Charleston Southern, 0.5%, (1, 1997)
#8 SC-Upstate 0.5%, 1st tournament (0, never)
#9 Radford 2.7%, Round of 32 (3, 2018)

First Round
-----------
Radford 67, SC-Upstate 60

#1 High Point 38.6%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#2 UNC-Asheville 23.9%, Round of 32, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Gardner-Webb 10.0%, First Win, (1, 2019)
#4 Winthrop 13.6%, Sweet 16, (11, 2021)
#5 Longwood 7.1%, First Win, (1, 2022)
#6 Presbyterian 2.2%, 1st tournament (10 misses), (0, never)
#7 Charleston Southern, 0.6%, (1, 1997)
#9 Radford 4.1%, Round of 32 (3, 2018)

Quarterfinals
------------
High Point 77, Radford 63
UNC-Asheville 60, Charleston Southern 55
Gardner Webb 61, Presbyterian 60
Longwood 69, Winthrop 56

Winthrop losing to Longwood enhances High Point's odds for first tournament

#1 High Point 51.2%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#2 UNC-Asheville 23.6%, Round of 32, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Gardner-Webb 11.7%, First Win, (1, 2019)
#5 Longwood 13.5%, First Win, (1, 2022)

Semifinals
---------
Longwood 80, High Point 59 (OT)
UNC-Asheville 83, Gardner-Webb 72 (OT)

#2 UNC-Asheville 55.9%, Round of 32, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#5 Longwood 44.1%, First Win, (1, 2022)

Championship
-------------
Longwood 85, UNC-Asheville 59

Longwood Lancers

Longwood dd takes down the #1 and #2 seeds, High Point and UNC-Asheville to secure their second trip to the NCAA Tournament. The Lancers were 6-10 in regular season conference play, but put three wins together in the Big South tournament.

Northeast Conference (NEC)

#1 Central Connecticut 41.8%, 1st win, (3, 2007)
#2 Merrimack 37.7%, 1st tournament (first attempt), (0, never)
#3 Sacred Heart 9.4%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#4 Le Moyne 5.5%, provisional not eligible for NCAAT (0, never)
#5 Fairleigh Dickinson 2.0%, Sweet 16, (7, 2023 streak of 1)
#6 Wagner 3.1%, 1st win, (1, 2022)
#7, Long Island University 0.2%, 1st win (5, 2018)
#8, St. Francis (PA) 0.2%, 1st win (1, 1991)
#9, Stonehill 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, provisional not eligible for NCAAT

Quarterfinals
------------
Central Connecticut 71, St. Francis (PA) 68
Merrimack 72, Long Island University 66
Wagner 60, Sacred Heart 57
Le Moyne 82, Fairleigh Dickinson 61

#1 Central Connecticut 44.4%, 1st win, (3, 2007)
#2 Merrimack 39.1%, 1st tournament (first attempt), (0, never)
#4 Le Moyne 58.7%, provisional not eligible for NCAAT, (0, never)
#6 Wagner 7.9%, 1st win, (1, 2022)

Merrimack continues quest for NCAA tournament in first opportunity as a full DI member. Le Moyne eliminates last season's Cinderella, FDU. Sacred Heart misses out on 24th opportunity to dance.

Semifinals
---------
Wagner 66, Central Connecticut 56
Merrimack 61, Le Moyne 51

#2 Merrimack 74.3%, 1st tournament (first attempt), (0, never)
#6 Wagner 25.7%, 1st win, (1, 2022)

Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)

#1 Little Rock 28.0%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#2 Tennessee-Martin 16.5%, 1st tournament (30 misses), (0, never)
#3 Morehead State 41.5%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)
#4 Western Illinois 7.5%, 1st tournament (41 misses), (0, never)
#5 Tennessee State 2.9%, 1st win, (2, 1994)
#6 SIUE 2.1%, 1st tournament (10 misses), (0, never)
#7 Eastern Illinois 1.0%, 1st win (2, 2001)
#8 Southern Indiana 0.5%, provisional not eligible for NCAAT, (0, never)
#9, Tennessee Tech 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, 1st modern tournament (0, 1963)
#10 Southeast Missouri 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, 1st win, (2, 2023, streak of 1)
#11 Lindenwood 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, provisional not eligible for 8-team tournament, (0, never)

First Round
-----------
Tennessee State 78, Southern Indiana 64
SIUE 68, Eastern Illinois 57

#1 Little Rock 27.5%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#2 Tennessee-Martin 16.6%, 1st tournament (30 misses), (0, never)
#3 Morehead State 40.5%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)
#4 Western Illinois 7.0%, 1st tournament (41 misses), (0, never)
#5 Tennessee State 4.6%, 1st win, (2, 1994)
#6 SIUE 2.1%, 3.8% tournament (10 misses), (0, never)

Second Round
--------------
Morehead State 78, SIUE 63
Western Illinois 61, Tennessee State 59

#1 Little Rock 24.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#2 Tennessee-Martin 13.3%, 1st tournament (30 misses), (0, never)
#3 Morehead State 51.8%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)
#4 Western Illinois 10.8%, 1st tournament (41 misses), (0, never)

Semifinals
---------
Little Rock 82, Western Illinois 57
Morehead State 84, Tennessee State 78

#1 Little Rock 34.7%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#3 Morehead State 65.3%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)

Semifinals
---------
Morehead State 69, Little Rock 55

Morehead State Eagles

Morehead State doubles, with a regular season tri-championship and a conference tournament final. The Eagles will dance for the fourth time, and first since 2021, where they will seek their first Sweet 16.

Colonial Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)

#1 Charleston 25.7%, Sweet 16, (6, 2023, streak of 1)
#2 Drexel 19.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2021)
#3 Hofstra 20.8%, 1st win, (2, 2001)
#4 UNC-Wilmington 18.9%, Round of 32, (6, 2017)
#5 Towson 6.4%, 1st win, (2, 1991)
#6 Delaware 4.3%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#7 Stony Brook 1.8%, 1st win, (1, 2016)
#8 Monmouth 1.6%, Round of 32, (4, 2006)
#9 Campbell 0.2%, 1st win, (1, 1992)
#10 Northeastern 0.9%, 1st win, modern (6, 2019)
#11 Elon 0.1%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#12 NC A&T 0.00%, Round of 32 (7, 2013)
#13 William & Mary 0.04%, 1st tournament (84 misses)
#14 Hampton 0.01%, Sweet 16, (6, 2016)

First Round
-----------
Hampton 56, Elon 55
William & Mary 79, NC A&T 66

#1 Charleston 25.7%, Sweet 16, (6, 2023, streak of 1)
#2 Drexel 19.0%, Sweet 16, (5, 2021)
#3 Hofstra 20.7%, 1st win, (2, 2001)
#4 UNC-Wilmington 19.2%, Round of 32, (6, 2017)
#5 Towson 6.2%, 1st win, (2, 1991)
#6 Delaware 4.6%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#7 Stony Brook 1.8%, 1st win, (1, 2016)
#8 Monmouth 1.6%, Round of 32, (4, 2006)
#9 Campbell 0.2%, 1st win, (1, 1992)
#10 Northeastern 0.9%, 1st win, modern (6, 2019)
#13 William & Mary 0.1%, 1st tournament (84 misses)
#14 Hampton 0.01%, Sweet 16, (6, 2016)

Second Round
--------------
Towson 67, William & Mary 56
Delaware 80, Hampton 50
Stony Brook 75, Northeastern 65
Monmouth 90, Campbell 67

#1 Charleston 24.3%, Sweet 16, (6, 2023, streak of 1)
#2 Drexel 18.7%, Sweet 16, (5, 2021)
#3 Hofstra 19.4%, 1st win, (2, 2001)
#4 UNC-Wilmington 17.9%, Round of 32, (6, 2017)
#5 Towson 7.7%, 1st win, (2, 1991)
#6 Delaware 6.1%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#7 Stony Brook 3.3%, 1st win, (1, 2016)
#8 Monmouth 2.7%, Round of 32, (4, 2006)

Quarterfinals
------------
Charleston 83, Monmouth 59
Stony Brook 91, Drexel 88 (2 OT)
Hofstra 63, Delaware 58
Towson 66, UNC-Wilmington 56

#1 Charleston 37.8%, Sweet 16, (6, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Hofstra 26.6%, 1st win, (2, 2001)
#5 Towson 16.7%, 1st win, (2, 1991)
#7 Stony Brook 8.8%, 1st win, (1, 2016)

Missouri Valley Conference (MVC)

#1 Indiana State 36.6%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Drake 30.1%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Bradley 17.2%, Elite 8, (5, 2019)
#4 Northern Iowa 7.2%, Elite 8, (8, 2016)
#5 Belmont 3.3%, Round of 32, (8, 2019)
#6 Southern Illinois 2.7%, Elite 8, (8, 2007)
#7 Illinois State 0.5%, Sweet 16, (4, 1998)
#8 Murray State 1.1%, Sweet 16, (16, 2022)
#9 Missouri State 1.0%, Elite 8, (6, 1999)
#10 Evansville 0.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 1999)
#11 Illinois-Chicago 0.2%, 1st win, (3, 2004)
#12 Valparaiso 0.02%, Elite 8, (9, 2015)

First Round
-----------
Belmont 86, Valparaiso 61
Illinois-Chicago 84-Southern Illinois
Evansville 59, Illinois State 53
Missouri State 60, Murray State 35

#1 Indiana State 35.5%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Drake 30.9%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Bradley 19.6%, Elite 8, (5, 2019)
#4 Northern Iowa 6.5%, Elite 8, (8, 2016)
#5 Belmont 4.1%, Round of 32, (8, 2019)
#9 Missouri State 2.3%, Elite 8, (6, 1999)
#10 Evansville 0.4%, Sweet 16, (4, 1999)
#11 Illinois-Chicago 0.7%, 1st win, (3, 2004)

Quarterfinals
------------
Indiana State 75, Missouri State 59
Drake 79, Evansville 58
Bradley 74, Illinois-Chicago 47
Indiana State 75, Missouri State 59

Favorites win by average of 20 points.

#1 Indiana State 41.6%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Drake 29.4%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Bradley 20.4%, Elite 8, (5, 2019)
#4 Northern Iowa 8.5%, Elite 8, (8, 2016)

Semifinals
---------
Indiana State 94, Northern Iowa 72
Drake 72, Bradley 67

#1 Indiana State 55.2%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Drake 44.8%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 1)

Championship
------------
Drake 84, Indiana State 80

Drake Bulldogs

Drake is making their fourth appearance in the modern post-1985 era, and second in a row. The Bulldogs had a Final Four appearance in 1969.

Southern Conference (SoCon)

#1 Samford 38.3%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#2 UNC-Greensboro 18.0%, 1st win, (4, 2021)
#3 Chattanooga 11.1%, Elite 8, (9, 2022)
#4 West Carolina 14.4%, 1st win, (1, 1996)
#5 Furman 9.0%, Sweet 16, (1, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Wofford 4.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2019)
#7 East Tennessee State 3.5%, Sweet 16, (9, 2017)
#8 Mercer 1.0%, Sweet 16, (2, 2014)
#9 The Citadel 0.4%, First tournament (84 misses), (0, never)
#10 VMI 0.0%, First tournament modern, (0, 1977)

First Round
-----------
East Tennessee State 98, VMI 66
Mercer 84, Citadel 76

#1 Samford 37.2%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#2 UNC-Greensboro 17.1%, 1st win, (4, 2021)
#3 Chattanooga 11.3%, Elite 8, (9, 2022)
#4 West Carolina 14.8%, 1st win, (1, 1996)
#5 Furman 9.1%, Sweet 16, (1, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Wofford 4.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2019)
#7 East Tennessee State 4.4%, Sweet 16, (9, 2017)
#8 Mercer 1.8%, Sweet 16, (2, 2014)

Quarterfinals
------------
Samford 70, Mercer 57
East Tennessee State 73, UNC-Greensboro 62
Chattanooga 75, Wofford 57
Furman 79, West Carolina 76 (OT)

#1 Samford 49.0%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#3 Chattanooga 22.0%, Elite 8, (9, 2022)
#5 Furman 18.1%, Sweet 16, (1, 2023, streak of 1)
#7 East Tennessee State 10.9%, Sweet 16, (9, 2017)

Semifinals
----------
Samford 84, Furman 77
East Tennessee State 85, Chattanooga 84 (OT)

#1 Samford 77.7%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#7 East Tennessee State 22.3%, Sweet 16, (9, 2017)

America East

#1 Vermont 59.8%, Sweet 16, (9, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 UMass Lowell 24.8%, First Tournament (5 misses), (0, never)
#3 Bryant 8.5%, 1st win, (1, 2022)
#4 New Hampshire 2.8% First Tournament (68 misses), (0, never)
#5 Binghampton 1.1%, 1st win, (1, 2009)
#6 Maine 1.8%, 1st Tournament (70 misses), (0,never)
#7 UMBC 0.6%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#8 Albany 0.7%, Round of 32, (5, 2015)
#9 NJIT excluded from 8-team tournament, First Tournament (13 misses), (0, never_

Quarterfinals
------------
Vermont 75, Albany 72
UMass Lowell 94, Binghampton 89 (OT)
Bryant 84, Maine 58
New Hampshire 77, Binghamton

Maine misses out for 71st time.

#1 Vermont 64.6%, Sweet 16, (9, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 UMass Lowell 23.6%, First Tournament (5 misses), (0, never)
#3 Bryant 9.1%, 1st win, (1, 2022)
#4 New Hampshire 2.7% First Tournament (68 misses), (0, never)

Big Sky

#1 Eastern Washington 29.8%, 1st win, (3, 2021)
#2 Northern Colorado 10.5%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0. never)
#3 Montana 22.3%, Sweet 16, (11, 2019)
#4 Weber State 25.8%, Sweet 16, (6, 2016)
#5 Montana State 3.5%, 1st win, (4, 2023, streak of 2)
#6 Portland State 4.0%, 1st win, (2, 2009)
#7 Northern Arizona 0.6%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#8 Idaho State 2.6%, 1st win modern, (1, 1987)
#9 Idaho 0.4%, 1st win modern, (2, 1990)
#10 Sacramento State 0.6% 1st tournament (31 misses)

First Round
-----------
Idaho State 68, Northern Arizona 60
Sacramento State 72, Idaho 64

Top two seeds go down as Sacramento State stays alive for first NCAA Tournament

#1 Eastern Washington 29.4%, 1st win, (3, 2021)
#2 Northern Colorado 9.9%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0. never)
#3 Montana 22.4%, Sweet 16, (11, 2019)
#4 Weber State 25.8%, Sweet 16, (6, 2016)
#5 Montana State 3.5%, 1st win, (4, 2023, streak of 2)
#6 Portland State 3.9%, 1st win, (2, 2009)
#8 Idaho State 3.9%, 1st win modern, (1, 1987)
#10 Sacramento State 1.2% 1st tournament (31 misses)

Quarterfinals
------------
Sacramento State 74, Eastern Washington 69
Idaho State 83, Northern Colorado 76

#3 Montana 28.4%, Sweet 16, (11, 2019)
#4 Weber State 39.1%, Sweet 16, (6, 2016)
#5 Montana State 6.8%, 1st win, (4, 2023, streak of 2)
#6 Portland State 5.6%, 1st win, (2, 2009)
#8 Idaho State 12.9%, 1st win modern, (1, 1987)
#10 Sacramento State 7.2% 1st tournament (31 misses)

Summit League

#1 South Dakota State 29.0%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#2 Kansas City 12.8%, 1st tournament (33 misses), (0, never)
#3 North Dakota 11.5%, 1st win, (1, 2017)
#4 St. Thomas 25.1%, Provisional not eligible to 2026, (0, never)
#5 North Dakota State 6.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 2019)
#6 Omaha 6.3%, 1st tournament (10), (0, never)
#7 Denver 5.2%, 1st tournament (66), (0, never)
#8 Oral Roberts 3.6%, Elite 8, (5, 2023, streak 1)
#9 South Dakota 0.5%, 1st tournament (10), (0, never)

First Round
-----------
Oral Roberts 77, South Dakota 62

#1 South Dakota State 29.0%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#2 Kansas City 12.8%, 1st tournament (33 misses), (0, never)
#3 North Dakota 11.5%, 1st win, (1, 2017)
#4 St. Thomas 25.1%, Provisional not eligible to 2026, (0, never)
#5 North Dakota State 6.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 2019)
#6 Omaha 6.3%, 1st tournament (10), (0, never)
#7 Denver 5.2%, 1st tournament (66), (0, never)
#8 Oral Roberts 3.6%, Elite 8, (5, 2023, streak 1)

Quarterfinal
-----------
South Dakota State 79, Oral Roberts 63
Denver 61, Kansas City 60
Omaha 73, North Dakota 72
St. Thomas 68, North Dakota State 58

#1 South Dakota State 38.9%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#4 St. Thomas 34.9%, Provisional not eligible to 2026, (0, never)
#6 Omaha 14.3%, 1st tournament (10), (0, never)
#7 Denver 12.0%, 1st tournament (66), (0, never)

West Coast Conference (WCC)

#1 St. Mary's 43.7%, Elite 8, (11, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 Gonzaga 47.7%, 1st championship, (25, 2023, streak of 24)
#3 San Francisco 6.1%, 1st win modern, (2, 2022)
#4 Santa Clara 2.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 1996)
#5 San Diego 0.01%, Sweet 16, (3, 2008)
#6 Portland 0.00%, 1st win, (1, 1996)
#7 Loyola Marymount 0.2%, Final 4, (3, 1990)
#8 Pepperdine 0.04%, Sweet 16, (7, 2002)
#9 Pacific 0.00%, Sweet 16, (5, 2013)

First Round
-----------
Pepperdine 102, Pacific 43

#1 St. Mary's 43.9%, Elite 8, (11, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 Gonzaga 47.7%, 1st championship, (25, 2023, streak of 24)
#3 San Francisco 6.1%, 1st win modern, (2, 2022)
#4 Santa Clara 2.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 1996)
#5 San Diego 0.01%, Sweet 16, (3, 2008)
#6 Portland 0.00%, 1st win, (1, 1996)
#7 Loyola Marymount 0.2%, Final 4, (3, 1990)
#8 Pepperdine 0.1%, Sweet 16, (7, 2002)

Second Round
-------------
San Diego 57, Pepperdine 52
Portland 78, Loyola Marymount 70

#1 St. Mary's 43.9%, Elite 8, (11, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 Gonzaga 47.7%, 1st championship, (25, 2023, streak of 24)
#3 San Francisco 6.1%, 1st win modern, (2, 2022)
#4 Santa Clara 2.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 1996)
#5 San Diego 0.1%, Sweet 16, (3, 2008)
#6 Portland 0.1%, 1st win, (1, 1996)

Third Round
-----------
San Francisco 72, Portland 51
Santa Clara 104, San Diego 79

#1 St. Mary's 43.7%, Elite 8, (11, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 Gonzaga 47.8%, 1st championship, (25, 2023, streak of 24)
#3 San Francisco 6.1%, 1st win modern, (2, 2022)
#4 Santa Clara 2.2%, Sweet 16, (4, 1996)

Southland

#1 McNeese State 80.5%, 1st win, (2, 2002)
#2 A&M-Corpus Christi 12.5%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 2)
#3 Nicholls 1.8%, 1st win, (2, 1998)
#4 Lamar 3.8%, 1st win modern (2, 2012)
#5 Southeastern Louisiana 1.0%, 1st win, (1, 2005)
#6 Northwestern State 0.2%, Sweet 16, (3, 2013)
#7 Texas A&M-Commerce 0.2%, Provisional Eligible 2027, (0, never)
#8 New Orleans 0.01%, Sweet 16, (5, 2017)
#9 Houston Christian, excluded from 8-team tournament, 1st Tournament modern (0, 1984)
#10 Incarnate Word, excluded from 8-team tournament, 1st tournament (5 misses), (0, never)

First Round
-----------
New Orleans 78, Southeastern Louisiana 66
Texas A&M-Commerce 68, Northwestern State 64

#1 McNeese State 79.8%, 1st win, (2, 2002)
#2 A&M-Corpus Christi 13.1%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 2)
#3 Nicholls 2.7%, 1st win, (2, 1998)
#4 Lamar 3.9%, 1st win modern (2, 2012)
#7 Texas A&M-Commerce 0.5%, Provisional Eligible 2027, (0, never)
#8 New Orleans 0.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2017)

Teams That Are In

#Net Ranking School (Conference AQ), Seeking, (tournaments since 1985 including 2024, latest appearance, streak including 2024)

#47 Drake (MVC AQ), Round of 32, (4, 2024, streak of 2)
#106 Morehead State (OVC AQ), Sweet 16 (4, 2024, streak of 1)
#172 Longwood (Big South AQ), First Win, (2, 2024, streak of 1)
#211 Stetson (ASUN AQ), 1st win, (1, 2024, streak of 1)

Teams Hoping For an At-Large

#Net Ranking of 68 or better.

#26 Indiana State (MVC), Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#59 Bradley (MVC), Elite 8, (5, 2019)

March 14, 2024 update

Stetson Hatters (ASUN) have qualified for the NCAA tournament for the first time in 52 attempts.

4 schools still have a chance to qualify. At most 3 will qualify since Bethune-Cookman and Grambling are both from the SWAC.

UMass Lowell (Am East) plays in Saturday's final against Vermont.

UC-Riverside and Cal Baptist are eliminated

Bethune-Cookman (SWAC), Grambling (SWAC) and Quinnipiac (MAAC) are in a semifinal on Friday. Bethune-Cookman and Grambling play each other, guaranteeing that one will advance to the conference tournament final, but also ensuring that one will be eliminated.

Never-Beens

There are 38 DI schools that have never been to the NCAA Tournament. Six of them could have been in the first tournament in 1939. Three of these have failed to qualify for 84 seasons (2020 excluded). Three have dropped to lower level of competition only to later return. Another school, St, Francis (NY), had missed 84 tournaments before they dropped athletics entirely following the 2023 season.

Army qualified for the 1968 NCAA tournament, but coach Bobby Knight declined the invitation believing that the Black Knights would do better in the NIT tournament. They lost to Notre Dame in the first round of the NIT.

For each school the following information is given:

(1) The number of tournaments missed;
(2) The school name and conference;
(3) The probability of qualifying for the 2024 tournament;
(4) The projected conference seed; and
(5) For conferences in which not all schools qualify for the conference tournament, the probability of qualifying for the conference tournament.

The probability of qualifying is that of winning their conference tournament according to teamrankings.com , which does a Monte Carlo simulation based on current records, future schedule, and estimated team strength.

The measure I use is the probability of winning the conference tournament. It is quit unlikely that any of these schools will win an at-large berth. The highest NET Ranking for any of these schools is 111th for High Point.

84 Army (Patriot) eliminated first round
84 The Citadel (SoCon) eliminated first round
84 William & Mary (CAA) eliminated first round
70 Maine (Am E) eliminated quarterfinal
68 New Hampshire (Am E) eliminated semifinal
66 Denver (Summit) eliminated final
54 UTRGV (WAC) eliminated, did not make conference tournament.

51 Stetson Hatters ASUN Champion

45 Grambling (SWAC) 26.5%, #1
42 Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) 19.3%, #5

42 UMES (MEAC) eliminated quarterfinal
42 Youngstown State (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
41 Western Illinois (OVC) eliminated semifinal
38 Chicago State (Ind.) #297 NET will not get at-large
33 Kansas City (Summit) eliminated quarterfinal
31 Sacramento State (Big Sky) eliminated semifinal
30 Tennessee-Martin (OVC) eliminated semifinal
24 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) eliminated did not make conference tournament

24 Quinnipiac (MAAC) 32.7%, #1

23 Elon (CAA) eliminated first round
23 High Point (Big South) eliminated semifinal
23 Sacred Heart (NEC) eliminated quarterfinal
21 UC-Riverside (Big West) eliminated second round
20 Fort Wayne (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
20 Northern Colorado (Big Sky) eliminated quarterfinal
13 NJIT (Am E) eliminated did not make conference tournament
13 Utah Valley (WAC) eliminated first round
12 Central Arkansas (ASUN) eliminated did not make conference tournament
11 SC Upstate (Big South) eliminated first round
10 Presbyterian (Big South) eliminated quarterfinal
10 SIUE (OVC) eliminated second round
10 South Dakota (Summit) eliminated first round
8 Omaha (Summit) eliminated semifinal

5 UMass Lowell (Am E) 28.1%, #2

5 Incarnate Word (Southland)eliminated did not make conference tournament
1 Cal Baptist (WAC) eliminated second round
1 North Alabama (ASUN) eliminated semifinal
0 Merrimack (NEC) eliminated final

Ranked by Probability

Stetson Hatters (51) ASUN Champion

32.7% Quinnipiac (MAAC) (24), #1
28.1% UMass Lowell (Am E) (5), #2
26.5% Grambling (SWAC) (45), #1
19.3% Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) (42), #5

33 Teams Have Been Eliminated for this season.

Cal Baptist (WAC) (1), #8 eliminated second round
UC-Riverside (Big West) (21), #5 eliminated second round
Utah Valley (WAC) (13 misses), #5 eliminated first round
UMES (MEAC) (42), #7 eliminated quarterfinal
Merrimack (NEC) (0 misses), #2 eliminated final
Sacramento State (Big Sky) (31), #10 eliminated semifinal
Denver (Summit) (66), #7 eliminated final
New Hampshire (Am E) (68), #4 eliminated semifinal
Omaha (Summit) (8), #6 eliminated semifinal
Northern Colorado (Big Sky) (20), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
Maine (Am E) (70), #6 eliminated quarterfinal
Kansas City (Summit) (33), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
High Point (Big South) (23), #1 eliminated semifinal
The Citadel (SoCon) (84), #9 eliminated first round
Western Illinois (OVC) (41), #4 eliminated semifinal
William & Mary (CAA) (84), #13 eliminated first round
Tennessee-Martin (OVC) (30), #2 eliminated semifinal
Elon (CAA) (23), #11 eliminated first round
Presbyterian (Big South) (10), #6 eliminated semifinal
South Dakota (Summit) (10), #9 eliminated first round
Youngstown State (Horizon) (42), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
Fort Wayne (Horizon) (20), #8 eliminated quarterfinal
SIUE (OVC) (10), #6 eliminated 2nd round
North Alabama (ASUN) (1), #6 eliminated semifinal
Sacred Heart (NEC) (23), #3 eliminated first round
SC Upstate (Big South) (11), #8 eliminated first round
Army (Patriot) (84), #8 eliminated first round
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) (24) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Incarnate Word (Southland) (5) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Central Arkansas (ASUN) (12) eliminated did not make conference tournament
NJIT (Am E) (13) eliminated did not make conference tournament
UTRGV (WAC) (54) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Chicago State (Ind.) (38) #297 NET will not get at-large

The mean expectation is 2.07 new teams. If we assume each conference is independent of each other, and no team will get an at-large berth, then the probability of first timers is:

1 26.2%
2 45.2%
3 24.4%
4 4.2%

The most likely outcome is that one of Quinnipiac, UMass Lowell, or Grambling qualify. The second most likely outcome is that none of these qualify. There is an outside chance that two of these qualify.

March 11, 2024

Conference Tournaments


Atlantic Sun (ASUN)

#1 Eastern Kentucky 31.7% chance of winning, seeking 1st NCAAT win, (3 modern appearances, 2014 last appearance)
#2 Stetson 20.7%, 1st NCAAT tournament (51 misses), (0, never)
#3 Lipscomb 26.5%, 1st win, (1, 2018)
#4 Austin Peay, 9.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#5 North Florida, 3.7%, 1st win, (1, 2015)
#6 North Alabama, 2.9%, 1st win (1 miss), (0, never)
#7 Florida Gulf Coast, 2.5%, Elite 8, (3, 2017)
#8 Queens, 0.7%, Provisional Eligible 2027, (0, never)
#9 Kennesaw State, 1.8%, 1st win, (1, 2023, streak 1)
#10 Jacksonville (FL), 0.4%, 1st win modern, (1, 1986)
#11 Central Arkansas, 0.0% excluded from tournament, 1st tournament (12 misses) (0, never)
#12 Bellarmine, 0.0% excluded from tournament, Provisional Eligible 2025 (0, never)

First Round
-----------
Jacksonville (FL) 92, Kennesaw State 86
Queens 69, Florida Gulf Coast 63

Quarterfinals
------------
Jacksonville (FL) 67, Eastern Kentucky 65
Stetson 83, Queens 71
North Alabama 77, Lipscomb 75
Austin Peay 101, North Florida 98 (OT)

Losses by Eastern Kentucky and Lipscomb, who had been given a collective 58% chance of winning the tournament, opens up an opportunity for Stetson and the other three semifinalists.

The ASUN reseeds its quarterfinals, so Stetson has home court advantage so long as they remain in the tournament. The Hatters have the second longest number of non-appearances behind the six schools who were eligible for the first NCAA tournament in 1938.

Jacksonville (FL) knocked off the regular season champion Jacksonville State (AL) in 2022. That tournament was won by Bellarmine who was (and is) a provisional school not eligible for the NCAA tournament. The AQ was given to Jacksonville State as the regular season champion. The elimination of Queens forecloses that possibility for Eastern Kentucky gaining the AQ this season.

#2 Stetson 51.9%, 1st NCAAT tournament (51 misses), (0, never)
#4 Austin Peay, 27.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#6 North Alabama, 13.9%, 1st win (1 miss), (0, never)
#10 Jacksonville (FL), 6.9%, 1st win modern, (1, 1986)

Semifinals
---------
Stetson 88, Jacksonville (FL) 87
Austin Peay 77, North Alabama 71

Stetson is one win away from their first ever trip to the NCAA tournament

#2 Stetson 66.2%, 1st NCAAT tournament (51 misses), (0, never)
#4 Austin Peay, 33.8%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)

Championship
-------------
Stetson 94, Austin Peay 91

Stetson Hatters

Stetson takes advantage of the upset of conference champion Eastern Kentucky by #10 seed Jacksonville (FL) which gave the Hatters home court and the top seed for the remainder of the tournament to secure their first chance to dance ever (since 1972).

Stetson has shared the ASUN (TAAC) with Central Florida, Florida Atlantic, Troy, Centenary, and Hardin-Simmons, but has yet to take home a regular season championship. This is the Hatters' second 20+ win season. The other was in 1974. Stetson has now had two back-to-back winning seasons, after failing to have a winning season for 21 years (they were 16-16 in 2008).


Horizon League

#1 Oakland 21.7%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Youngstown State 29.4%, 1st tournament (42 misses), (0, never)
#3 Green Bay 4.9%, Sweet 16, (5, 2014)
#4 Wright State 20.9%, Round of 32, (4, 2022)
#5 Northern Kentucky 5.5%, 1st win, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Milwaukee 4.3%, Elite 8, (4, 2014)
#7 Cleveland State 5.1%, Elite 8, (3, 2021)
#8 Fort Wayne 8.1%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0, never)
#9 Robert Morris 0.1%, Round of 32, (6, 2015)
#10 IUPUI 0.00%, 1st win (1, 2003)
#11 Detroit Mercy 0.01%, Sweet 16, (3, 2012)

First Round
-----------
Milwaukee 83, Detroit Mercy 69
Cleveland State 85, IUPUI 66
Fort Wayne 78, Robert Morris 63

The favored team (and host) wins all three first round games.

#1 Oakland 20.2%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Youngstown State 29.2%, 1st tournament (42 misses), (0, never)
#3 Green Bay 5.0%, Sweet 16, (5, 2014)
#4 Wright State 21.3%, Round of 32, (4, 2022)
#5 Northern Kentucky 5.5%, 1st win, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Milwaukee 4.4%, Elite 8, (4, 2014)
#7 Cleveland State 4.9%, Elite 8, (3, 2021)
#8 Fort Wayne 9.5%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0, never)

Quarterfinals
------------
Oakland 85, Fort Wayne 75
Cleveland State 82, Youngstown State 66
Milwaukee 95, Green Bay 84
Northern Kentucky 99, Wright State 84

The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th seeds all go down at home.

#1 Oakland 38.3%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#5 Northern Kentucky 24.3%, 1st win, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Milwaukee 15.2%, Elite 8, (4, 2014)
#7 Cleveland State 22.1%, Elite 8, (3, 2021)

Semifinals
----------
Oakland 74, Cleveland State 71
Milwaukee 82, Northern Kentucky 79

#1 Oakland 67.4%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#6 Milwaukee 32.6%, Elite 8, (4, 2014)


Patriot League

#1 Colgate 72.4%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#2 Boston University 8.3%, 1st win modern, (5, 2011)
#3 Lafayette 3.5%, 1st win, (3, 2015)
#4 American 6.6%, 1st win, (3, 2014)
#5 Bucknell 2.1%, Sweet 16, (8, 2018)
#6 Lehigh 5.4%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012)
#7 Navy 1.1%, Final Four, (6, 1998)
#8 Army 0.3%, 1st tournament (84 misses), (0, never)
#9 Holy Cross 0.03%, Round of 32, (6, 2016)
#10 Loyola Maryland 0.1%, 1st win, (2, 2012)

First Round
-----------
Navy 64, Loyola Maryland 48
Holy Cross 84, Army 68

This ends Army's quest for a NCAAT berth. The streak now stands at 85 seasons.

#1 Colgate 73.7%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#2 Boston University 7.6%, 1st win modern, (5, 2011)
#3 Lafayette 3.4%, 1st win, (3, 2015)
#4 American 6.3%, 1st win, (3, 2014)
#5 Bucknell 2.1%, Sweet 16, (8, 2018)
#6 Lehigh 5.4%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012)
#7 Navy 1.5%, Final Four, (6, 1998)
#9 Holy Cross 0.1%, Round of 32, (6, 2016)

Quarterfinal
-----------
Colgate 81, Holy Cross 64
Boston University 70, Navy 61
Lehigh 76, Lafayette 61
Bucknell 80, American 57

#1 Colgate 76.0%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#2 Boston University 9.3%, 1st win modern, (5, 2011)
#5 Bucknell 5.8%, Sweet 16, (8, 2018)
#6 Lehigh 8.9%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012)

Semifinal
---------
Colgate 68, Bucknell 65
Lehigh 84, Boston University 79 (OT)

Colgate is seeking a fifth consecutive tournament appearance

#1 Colgate 83.3%, 1st win, (6, 2023, streak of 4)
#6 Lehigh 16.7%, Sweet 16, (5, 2012


Sun Belt Conference

#1 Appalachian State 31.6%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 43.9%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#3 Troy 9.5%, 1st win, (2, 2017)
#4 Arkansas State 6.0%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#5 Louisiana 5.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Southern Miss. 0.7%, 1st win, (3, 2012)
#7 Georgia State 1.1%, Sweet 16, (6, 2022)
#8 South Alabama 0.6%, Sweet 16, (6, 2008)
#9 Georgia Southern 0.2%, 1st win, (2, 1992)
#10 Marshall 0.6%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#11 Texas State 0.6%, 1st win, (2, 1997)
#12 Louisiana Monroe 0.04%, 1st win, (6, 1996)
#13 Coastal Carolina 0.02%, 1st win (4, 2015)
#14 Old Dominion 0.1%, Sweet 16, (10, 2019)

First Round
-----------
Texas State 92, Old Dominion 83 (OT)
Coastal Carolina 75, Louisiana-Monroe 71

#1 Appalachian State 31.9%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 43.6%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#3 Troy 9.3%, 1st win, (2, 2017)
#4 Arkansas State 6.0%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#5 Louisiana 5.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Southern Miss. 0.6%, 1st win, (3, 2012)
#7 Georgia State 1.1%, Sweet 16, (6, 2022)
#8 South Alabama 0.6%, Sweet 16, (6, 2008)
#9 Georgia Southern 0.2%, 1st win, (2, 1992)
#10 Marshall 0.6%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#11 Texas State 1.0%, 1st win, (2, 1997)
#13 Coastal Carolina 0.04%, 1st win (4, 2015)

Second Round
--------------
Louisiana 80, Coastal Carolina 66
Texas State 75, Southern Mississippi 59
Marshall 86, Georgia State 74
Georgia Southern 76, South Alabama 71

#1 Appalachian State 32.6%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 43.5%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#3 Troy 8.9%, 1st win, (2, 2017)
#4 Arkansas State 5.3%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#5 Louisiana 6.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#9 Georgia Southern 0.4%, 1st win, (2, 1992)
#10 Marshall 1.3%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#11 Texas State 1.9%, 1st win, (2, 1997)

Quarterfinals
------------
Appalachian State 85 Georgia Southern 80 (OT)
James Madison 81, Marshall 64
Texas State 74, Troy 68
Arkansas State 89, Louisiana 62

#1 Appalachian State 32.2%, 1st win, (2, 2021)
#2 James Madison 54.4%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#4 Arkansas State 9.4%, 1st win, (1, 1999)
#11 Texas State 4.0%, 1st win, (2, 1997)

Semifinals
----------
Arkansas State 67, Appalachian State 65
James Madison 73, Texas State 68

#2 James Madison 75.2%, Round of 32, (2, 2013)
#4 Arkansas State 24.8%, 1st win, (1, 1999)

Championship
-------------
James Madison 91, Arkansas State 71

James Madison Dukes

James Madison will be playing in their third NCAA tournament of the modern (post-1985) era, the Dukes' first since 2013. The Dukes will be trying to reach the Round of 32 for the first time since they reached that level for three straight tournaments in 1981, 1982, and 1983.


Big South

#1 High Point 39.8%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#2 UNC-Asheville 23.9%, Round of 32, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Gardner-Webb 10.0%, First Win, (1, 2019)
#4 Winthrop 13.4%, Sweet 16, (11, 2021)
#5 Longwood 7.2%, First Win, (1, 2022)
#6 Presbyterian 2.1%, 1st tournament (10 misses), (0, never)
#7 Charleston Southern, 0.5%, (1, 1997)
#8 SC-Upstate 0.5%, 1st tournament (0, never)
#9 Radford 2.7%, Round of 32 (3, 2018)

First Round
-----------
Radford 67, SC-Upstate 60

#1 High Point 38.6%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#2 UNC-Asheville 23.9%, Round of 32, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Gardner-Webb 10.0%, First Win, (1, 2019)
#4 Winthrop 13.6%, Sweet 16, (11, 2021)
#5 Longwood 7.1%, First Win, (1, 2022)
#6 Presbyterian 2.2%, 1st tournament (10 misses), (0, never)
#7 Charleston Southern, 0.6%, (1, 1997)
#9 Radford 4.1%, Round of 32 (3, 2018)

Quarterfinals
------------
High Point 77, Radford 63
UNC-Asheville 60, Charleston Southern 55
Gardner Webb 61, Presbyterian 60
Longwood 69, Winthrop 56

Winthrop losing to Longwood enhances High Point's odds for first tournament

#1 High Point 51.2%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#2 UNC-Asheville 23.6%, Round of 32, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Gardner-Webb 11.7%, First Win, (1, 2019)
#5 Longwood 13.5%, First Win, (1, 2022)

Semifinals
---------
Longwood 80, High Point 59 (OT)
UNC-Asheville 83, Gardner-Webb 72 (OT)

#2 UNC-Asheville 55.9%, Round of 32, (5, 2023, streak of 1)
#5 Longwood 44.1%, First Win, (1, 2022)

Championship
-------------
Longwood 85, UNC-Asheville 59

Longwood Lancers

Longwood takes down the #1 and #2 seeds, High Point and UNC-Asheville to secure their second trip to the NCAA Tournament. The Lancers were 6-10 in regular season conference play, but put three wins together in the Big South tournament.


Northeast Conference (NEC)

#1 Central Connecticut 41.8%, 1st win, (3, 2007)
#2 Merrimack 37.7%, 1st tournament (first attempt), (0, never)
#3 Sacred Heart 9.4%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#4 Le Moyne 5.5%, provisional not eligible for NCAAT (0, never)
#5 Fairleigh Dickinson 2.0%, Sweet 16, (7, 2023 streak of 1)
#6 Wagner 3.1%, 1st win, (1, 2022)
#7, Long Island University 0.2%, 1st win (5, 2018)
#8, St. Francis (PA) 0.2%, 1st win (1, 1991)
#9, Stonehill 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, provisional not eligible for NCAAT

Quarterfinals
------------
Central Connecticut 71, St. Francis (PA) 68
Merrimack 72, Long Island University 66
Wagner 60, Sacred Heart 57
Le Moyne 82, Fairleigh Dickinson 61

#1 Central Connecticut 44.4%, 1st win, (3, 2007)
#2 Merrimack 39.1%, 1st tournament (first attempt), (0, never)
#4 Le Moyne 58.7%, provisional not eligible for NCAAT, (0, never)
#6 Wagner 7.9%, 1st win, (1, 2022)

Merrimack continues quest for NCAA tournament in first opportunity as a full DI member. Le Moyne eliminates last season's Cinderella, FDU. Sacred Heart misses out on 24th opportunity to dance.

Semifinals
---------
Wagner 66, Central Connecticut 56
Merrimack 61, Le Moyne 51

#2 Merrimack 74.3%, 1st tournament (first attempt), (0, never)
#6 Wagner 25.7%, 1st win, (1, 2022)


Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)

#1 Little Rock 28.0%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#2 Tennessee-Martin 16.5%, 1st tournament (30 misses), (0, never)
#3 Morehead State 41.5%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)
#4 Western Illinois 7.5%, 1st tournament (41 misses), (0, never)
#5 Tennessee State 2.9%, 1st win, (2, 1994)
#6 SIUE 2.1%, 1st tournament (10 misses), (0, never)
#7 Eastern Illinois 1.0%, 1st win (2, 2001)
#8 Southern Indiana 0.5%, provisional not eligible for NCAAT, (0, never)
#9, Tennessee Tech 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, 1st modern tournament (0, 1963)
#10 Southeast Missouri 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, 1st win, (2, 2023, streak of 1)
#11 Lindenwood 0.0%, excluded from 8-team tournament, provisional not eligible for 8-team tournament, (0, never)

First Round
-----------
Tennessee State 78, Southern Indiana 64
SIUE 68, Eastern Illinois 57

#1 Little Rock 27.5%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#2 Tennessee-Martin 16.6%, 1st tournament (30 misses), (0, never)
#3 Morehead State 40.5%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)
#4 Western Illinois 7.0%, 1st tournament (41 misses), (0, never)
#5 Tennessee State 4.6%, 1st win, (2, 1994)
#6 SIUE 2.1%, 3.8% tournament (10 misses), (0, never)

Second Round
--------------
Morehead State 78, SIUE 63
Western Illinois 61, Tennessee State 59

#1 Little Rock 24.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#2 Tennessee-Martin 13.3%, 1st tournament (30 misses), (0, never)
#3 Morehead State 51.8%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)
#4 Western Illinois 10.8%, 1st tournament (41 misses), (0, never)

Semifinals
---------
Little Rock 82, Western Illinois 57
Morehead State 84, Tennessee State 78

#1 Little Rock 34.7%, Sweet 16, (5, 2016)
#3 Morehead State 65.3%, Sweet 16 (3, 2021)

Semifinals
---------
Morehead State 69, Little Rock 55

Morehead State Eagles

Morehead State doubles, with a regular season tri-championship and a conference tournament final. The Eagles will dance for the fourth time, and first since 2021, where they will seek their first Sweet 16.


Colonial Coastal Athletic Association (CAA)

#1 Charleston 25.7%, Sweet 16, (6, 2023, streak of 1)
#2 Drexel 19.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2021)
#3 Hofstra 20.8%, 1st win, (2, 2001)
#4 UNC-Wilmington 18.9%, Round of 32, (6, 2017)
#5 Towson 6.4%, 1st win, (2, 1991)
#6 Delaware 4.3%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#7 Stony Brook 1.8%, 1st win, (1, 2016)
#8 Monmouth 1.6%, Round of 32, (4, 2006)
#9 Campbell 0.2%, 1st win, (1, 1992)
#10 Northeastern 0.9%, 1st win, modern (6, 2019)
#11 Elon 0.1%, 1st tournament (23 misses), (0, never)
#12 NC A&T 0.00%, Round of 32 (7, 2013)
#13 William & Mary 0.04%, 1st tournament (84 misses)
#14 Hampton 0.01%, Sweet 16, (6, 2016)

First Round
-----------
Hampton 56, Elon 55
William & Mary 79, NC A&T 66

#1 Charleston 25.7%, Sweet 16, (6, 2023, streak of 1)
#2 Drexel 19.0%, Sweet 16, (5, 2021)
#3 Hofstra 20.7%, 1st win, (2, 2001)
#4 UNC-Wilmington 19.2%, Round of 32, (6, 2017)
#5 Towson 6.2%, 1st win, (2, 1991)
#6 Delaware 4.6%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#7 Stony Brook 1.8%, 1st win, (1, 2016)
#8 Monmouth 1.6%, Round of 32, (4, 2006)
#9 Campbell 0.2%, 1st win, (1, 1992)
#10 Northeastern 0.9%, 1st win, modern (6, 2019)
#13 William & Mary 0.1%, 1st tournament (84 misses)
#14 Hampton 0.01%, Sweet 16, (6, 2016)

Second Round
--------------
Towson 67, William & Mary 56
Delaware 80, Hampton 50
Stony Brook 75, Northeastern 65
Monmouth 90, Campbell 67

#1 Charleston 24.3%, Sweet 16, (6, 2023, streak of 1)
#2 Drexel 18.7%, Sweet 16, (5, 2021)
#3 Hofstra 19.4%, 1st win, (2, 2001)
#4 UNC-Wilmington 17.9%, Round of 32, (6, 2017)
#5 Towson 7.7%, 1st win, (2, 1991)
#6 Delaware 6.1%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#7 Stony Brook 3.3%, 1st win, (1, 2016)
#8 Monmouth 2.7%, Round of 32, (4, 2006)

Quarterfinals
------------
Charleston 83, Monmouth 59
Stony Brook 91, Drexel 88 (2 OT)
Hofstra 63, Delaware 58
Towson 66, UNC-Wilmington 56

#1 Charleston 37.8%, Sweet 16, (6, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Hofstra 26.6%, 1st win, (2, 2001)
#5 Towson 16.7%, 1st win, (2, 1991)
#7 Stony Brook 8.8%, 1st win, (1, 2016)

Semifinals
---------
Charleston 61, Towson 56
Stony Brook 63, Hofstra 59

#1 Charleston 73.3%, Sweet 16, (6, 2023, streak of 1)
#7 Stony Brook 26.7%, 1st win, (1, 2016)


Missouri Valley Conference (MVC)

#1 Indiana State 36.6%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Drake 30.1%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Bradley 17.2%, Elite 8, (5, 2019)
#4 Northern Iowa 7.2%, Elite 8, (8, 2016)
#5 Belmont 3.3%, Round of 32, (8, 2019)
#6 Southern Illinois 2.7%, Elite 8, (8, 2007)
#7 Illinois State 0.5%, Sweet 16, (4, 1998)
#8 Murray State 1.1%, Sweet 16, (16, 2022)
#9 Missouri State 1.0%, Elite 8, (6, 1999)
#10 Evansville 0.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 1999)
#11 Illinois-Chicago 0.2%, 1st win, (3, 2004)
#12 Valparaiso 0.02%, Elite 8, (9, 2015)

First Round
-----------
Belmont 86, Valparaiso 61
Illinois-Chicago 84-Southern Illinois
Evansville 59, Illinois State 53
Missouri State 60, Murray State 35

#1 Indiana State 35.5%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Drake 30.9%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Bradley 19.6%, Elite 8, (5, 2019)
#4 Northern Iowa 6.5%, Elite 8, (8, 2016)
#5 Belmont 4.1%, Round of 32, (8, 2019)
#9 Missouri State 2.3%, Elite 8, (6, 1999)
#10 Evansville 0.4%, Sweet 16, (4, 1999)
#11 Illinois-Chicago 0.7%, 1st win, (3, 2004)

Quarterfinals
------------
Indiana State 75, Missouri State 59
Drake 79, Evansville 58
Bradley 74, Illinois-Chicago 47
Indiana State 75, Missouri State 59

Favorites win by average of 20 points.

#1 Indiana State 41.6%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Drake 29.4%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 1)
#3 Bradley 20.4%, Elite 8, (5, 2019)
#4 Northern Iowa 8.5%, Elite 8, (8, 2016)

Semifinals
---------
Indiana State 94, Northern Iowa 72
Drake 72, Bradley 67

#1 Indiana State 55.2%, Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#2 Drake 44.8%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 1)

Championship
------------
Drake 84, Indiana State 80

Drake Bulldogs

Drake is making their fourth appearance in the modern post-1985 era, and second in a row. The Bulldogs had a Final Four appearance in 1969.


Southern Conference (SoCon)

#1 Samford 38.3%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#2 UNC-Greensboro 18.0%, 1st win, (4, 2021)
#3 Chattanooga 11.1%, Elite 8, (9, 2022)
#4 West Carolina 14.4%, 1st win, (1, 1996)
#5 Furman 9.0%, Sweet 16, (1, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Wofford 4.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2019)
#7 East Tennessee State 3.5%, Sweet 16, (9, 2017)
#8 Mercer 1.0%, Sweet 16, (2, 2014)
#9 The Citadel 0.4%, First tournament (84 misses), (0, never)
#10 VMI 0.0%, First tournament modern, (0, 1977)

First Round
-----------
East Tennessee State 98, VMI 66
Mercer 84, Citadel 76

#1 Samford 37.2%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#2 UNC-Greensboro 17.1%, 1st win, (4, 2021)
#3 Chattanooga 11.3%, Elite 8, (9, 2022)
#4 West Carolina 14.8%, 1st win, (1, 1996)
#5 Furman 9.1%, Sweet 16, (1, 2023, streak of 1)
#6 Wofford 4.3%, Sweet 16, (5, 2019)
#7 East Tennessee State 4.4%, Sweet 16, (9, 2017)
#8 Mercer 1.8%, Sweet 16, (2, 2014)

Quarterfinals
------------
Samford 70, Mercer 57
East Tennessee State 73, UNC-Greensboro 62
Chattanooga 75, Wofford 57
Furman 79, West Carolina 76 (OT)

#1 Samford 49.0%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#3 Chattanooga 22.0%, Elite 8, (9, 2022)
#5 Furman 18.1%, Sweet 16, (1, 2023, streak of 1)
#7 East Tennessee State 10.9%, Sweet 16, (9, 2017)

Semifinals
----------
Samford 84, Furman 77
East Tennessee State 85, Chattanooga 84 (OT)

#1 Samford 77.7%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#7 East Tennessee State 22.3%, Sweet 16, (9, 2017)

Championship
-------------
Samford 76, East Tennessee State 69

Samford Bulldogs

Samford is making their third appearance in the NCAA Tournament, the Bulldogs' first since 2000. They will be seeking their first win.


America East

#1 Vermont 59.8%, Sweet 16, (9, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 UMass Lowell 24.8%, First Tournament (5 misses), (0, never)
#3 Bryant 8.5%, 1st win, (1, 2022)
#4 New Hampshire 2.8% First Tournament (68 misses), (0, never)
#5 Binghampton 1.1%, 1st win, (1, 2009)
#6 Maine 1.8%, 1st Tournament (70 misses), (0,never)
#7 UMBC 0.6%, Sweet 16, (2, 2018)
#8 Albany 0.7%, Round of 32, (5, 2015)
#9 NJIT excluded from 8-team tournament, First Tournament (13 misses), (0, never_

Quarterfinals
------------
Vermont 75, Albany 72
UMass Lowell 94, Binghampton 89 (OT)
Bryant 84, Maine 58
New Hampshire 77, Binghamton

Maine misses out for 71st time.

#1 Vermont 64.6%, Sweet 16, (9, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 UMass Lowell 23.6%, First Tournament (5 misses), (0, never)
#3 Bryant 9.1%, 1st win, (1, 2022)
#4 New Hampshire 2.7% First Tournament (68 misses), (0, never)


Big Sky

#1 Eastern Washington 29.8%, 1st win, (3, 2021)
#2 Northern Colorado 10.5%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0. never)
#3 Montana 22.3%, Sweet 16, (11, 2019)
#4 Weber State 25.8%, Sweet 16, (6, 2016)
#5 Montana State 3.5%, 1st win, (4, 2023, streak of 2)
#6 Portland State 4.0%, 1st win, (2, 2009)
#7 Northern Arizona 0.6%, 1st win, (2, 2000)
#8 Idaho State 2.6%, 1st win modern, (1, 1987)
#9 Idaho 0.4%, 1st win modern, (2, 1990)
#10 Sacramento State 0.6% 1st tournament (31 misses)

First Round
-----------
Idaho State 68, Northern Arizona 60
Sacramento State 72, Idaho 64

Top two seeds go down as Sacramento State stays alive for first NCAA Tournament

#1 Eastern Washington 29.4%, 1st win, (3, 2021)
#2 Northern Colorado 9.9%, 1st tournament (20 misses), (0. never)
#3 Montana 22.4%, Sweet 16, (11, 2019)
#4 Weber State 25.8%, Sweet 16, (6, 2016)
#5 Montana State 3.5%, 1st win, (4, 2023, streak of 2)
#6 Portland State 3.9%, 1st win, (2, 2009)
#8 Idaho State 3.9%, 1st win modern, (1, 1987)
#10 Sacramento State 1.2% 1st tournament (31 misses)

Quarterfinals
------------
Sacramento State 74, Eastern Washington 69
Idaho State 83, Northern Colorado 76
Montana 87, Portland State 81
Montana State 91, Weber State 85

Montana is only one of top four seeds to make it through the quarterfinals.

#3 Montana 50.7%, Sweet 16, (11, 2019)
#5 Montana State 23.6%, 1st win, (4, 2023, streak of 2)
#8 Idaho State 15.4%, 1st win modern, (1, 1987)
#10 Sacramento State 10.3% 1st tournament (31 misses)


Summit League

#1 South Dakota State 29.0%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#2 Kansas City 12.8%, 1st tournament (33 misses), (0, never)
#3 North Dakota 11.5%, 1st win, (1, 2017)
#4 St. Thomas 25.1%, Provisional not eligible to 2026, (0, never)
#5 North Dakota State 6.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 2019)
#6 Omaha 6.3%, 1st tournament (10), (0, never)
#7 Denver 5.2%, 1st tournament (66), (0, never)
#8 Oral Roberts 3.6%, Elite 8, (5, 2023, streak 1)
#9 South Dakota 0.5%, 1st tournament (10), (0, never)

First Round
-----------
Oral Roberts 77, South Dakota 62

#1 South Dakota State 29.0%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#2 Kansas City 12.8%, 1st tournament (33 misses), (0, never)
#3 North Dakota 11.5%, 1st win, (1, 2017)
#4 St. Thomas 25.1%, Provisional not eligible to 2026, (0, never)
#5 North Dakota State 6.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 2019)
#6 Omaha 6.3%, 1st tournament (10), (0, never)
#7 Denver 5.2%, 1st tournament (66), (0, never)
#8 Oral Roberts 3.6%, Elite 8, (5, 2023, streak 1)

Quarterfinal
-----------
South Dakota State 79, Oral Roberts 63
Denver 61, Kansas City 60
Omaha 73, North Dakota 72
St. Thomas 68, North Dakota State 58

#1 South Dakota State 38.9%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#4 St. Thomas 34.9%, Provisional not eligible to 2026, (0, never)
#6 Omaha 14.3%, 1st tournament (10), (0, never)
#7 Denver 12.0%, 1st tournament (66), (0, never)

Semifinal
-----------
South Dakota State 59, St. Thomas 49
Denver 66, Omaha 63

#1 South Dakota State 76.1%, 1st win, (6, 2022)
#7 Denver 23.9%, 1st tournament (66), (0, never)


West Coast Conference (WCC)

#1 St. Mary's 43.7%, Elite 8, (11, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 Gonzaga 47.7%, 1st championship, (25, 2023, streak of 24)
#3 San Francisco 6.1%, 1st win modern, (2, 2022)
#4 Santa Clara 2.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 1996)
#5 San Diego 0.01%, Sweet 16, (3, 2008)
#6 Portland 0.00%, 1st win, (1, 1996)
#7 Loyola Marymount 0.2%, Final 4, (3, 1990)
#8 Pepperdine 0.04%, Sweet 16, (7, 2002)
#9 Pacific 0.00%, Sweet 16, (5, 2013)

First Round
-----------
Pepperdine 102, Pacific 43

#1 St. Mary's 43.9%, Elite 8, (11, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 Gonzaga 47.7%, 1st championship, (25, 2023, streak of 24)
#3 San Francisco 6.1%, 1st win modern, (2, 2022)
#4 Santa Clara 2.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 1996)
#5 San Diego 0.01%, Sweet 16, (3, 2008)
#6 Portland 0.00%, 1st win, (1, 1996)
#7 Loyola Marymount 0.2%, Final 4, (3, 1990)
#8 Pepperdine 0.1%, Sweet 16, (7, 2002)

Second Round
-------------
San Diego 57, Pepperdine 52
Portland 78, Loyola Marymount 70

#1 St. Mary's 43.9%, Elite 8, (11, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 Gonzaga 47.7%, 1st championship, (25, 2023, streak of 24)
#3 San Francisco 6.1%, 1st win modern, (2, 2022)
#4 Santa Clara 2.1%, Sweet 16, (4, 1996)
#5 San Diego 0.1%, Sweet 16, (3, 2008)
#6 Portland 0.1%, 1st win, (1, 1996)

Semifinals
---------
St. Mary's 70, Santa Clara 65
Gonzaga 89, San Francisco 77

Guess who are in the final?

#1 St. Mary's 44.4%, Elite 8, (11, 2023, streak of 2)
#2 Gonzaga 55.6%, 1st championship, (25, 2023, streak of 24)


Southland

#1 McNeese State 80.5%, 1st win, (2, 2002)
#2 A&M-Corpus Christi 12.5%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 2)
#3 Nicholls 1.8%, 1st win, (2, 1998)
#4 Lamar 3.8%, 1st win modern (2, 2012)
#5 Southeastern Louisiana 1.0%, 1st win, (1, 2005)
#6 Northwestern State 0.2%, Sweet 16, (3, 2013)
#7 Texas A&M-Commerce 0.2%, Provisional Eligible 2027, (0, never)
#8 New Orleans 0.01%, Sweet 16, (5, 2017)
#9 Houston Christian, excluded from 8-team tournament, 1st Tournament modern (0, 1984)
#10 Incarnate Word, excluded from 8-team tournament, 1st tournament (5 misses), (0, never)

First Round
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New Orleans 78, Southeastern Louisiana 66
Texas A&M-Commerce 68, Northwestern State 64

#1 McNeese State 79.8%, 1st win, (2, 2002)
#2 A&M-Corpus Christi 13.1%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 2)
#3 Nicholls 2.7%, 1st win, (2, 1998)
#4 Lamar 3.9%, 1st win modern (2, 2012)
#7 Texas A&M-Commerce 0.5%, Provisional Eligible 2027, (0, never)
#8 New Orleans 0.1%, Sweet 16, (5, 2017)

Second Round
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Nicholls 72, Texas A&M-Commerce 51
Lamar 71, New Orleans 57

#1 McNeese State 78.1%, 1st win, (2, 2002)
#2 A&M-Corpus Christi 12.4%, Round of 32, (3, 2023, streak of 2)
#3 Nicholls 4.5%, 1st win, (2, 1998)
#4 Lamar 4.9%, 1st win modern (2, 2012)


Teams That Are In

#Net Ranking School (Conference AQ), Seeking, (tournaments since 1985 including 2024, latest appearance, streak including 2024)

#47 Drake (MVC AQ), Round of 32, (4, 2024, streak of 2)
#54 James Madison (Sun Belt AQ), Round of 32, (3, 2024, streak of 1)
#75 Samford (SoCon AQ), 1st win, (3, 2024, streak of 1)
#106 Morehead State (OVC AQ), Sweet 16 (4, 2024, streak of 1)
#172 Longwood (Big South AQ), First Win, (2, 2024, streak of 1)
#211 Stetson (ASUN AQ), 1st win, (1, 2024, streak of 1)


Teams Hoping For an At-Large

#Net Ranking of 64* or better. 64 equals 68 teams minus four AQ's with a NET ranking of greater than 68.

#26 Indiana State (MVC), Round of 32, (3, 2011)
#59 Bradley (MVC), Elite 8, (5, 2019)
#64 San Francisco (WCC), 1st win modern, (2, 2022)

March 15, 2024 update

Stetson Hatters (ASUN) have qualified for the NCAA tournament for the first time in 52 attempts.

2 schools have a chance to qualify if they win their conference final on Saturday.

UMass Lowell has a 28% of defeating Vermont for the America East title. The odds might be slimmer given the Catamounts dominance of the conference and the game being played in Burlington.

Grambling has a 43% chance of defeating Texas Southern for the SWAC title. Grambling is the regular season champion, but Texas Southern has won the last three tournament titles despite not having the top seed.

Quinnipiac was upset by St. Peter's in a MAAC semifinal. Bethune-Cookman lost to Grambling in a game between two never-beens.


Never-Beens

There are 38 DI schools that have never been to the NCAA Tournament. Six of them could have been in the first tournament in 1939. Three of these have failed to qualify for 84 seasons (2020 excluded). Three have dropped to lower level of competition only to later return. Another school, St, Francis (NY), had missed 84 tournaments before they dropped athletics entirely following the 2023 season.

Army qualified for the 1968 NCAA tournament, but coach Bobby Knight declined the invitation believing that the Black Knights would do better in the NIT tournament. They lost to Notre Dame in the first round of the NIT.

For each school the following information is given:

(1) The number of tournaments missed;
(2) The school name and conference;
(3) The probability of qualifying for the 2024 tournament;
(4) The projected conference seed; and
(5) For conferences in which not all schools qualify for the conference tournament, the probability of qualifying for the conference tournament.

The probability of qualifying is that of winning their conference tournament according to teamrankings.com , which does a Monte Carlo simulation based on current records, future schedule, and estimated team strength.

The measure I use is the probability of winning the conference tournament. It is quit unlikely that any of these schools will win an at-large berth. The highest NET Ranking for any of these schools is 111th for High Point.

84 Army (Patriot) eliminated first round
84 The Citadel (SoCon) eliminated first round
84 William & Mary (CAA) eliminated first round
70 Maine (Am E) eliminated quarterfinal
68 New Hampshire (Am E) eliminated semifinal
66 Denver (Summit) eliminated final
54 UTRGV (WAC) eliminated, did not make conference tournament.

51 Stetson Hatters ASUN Champion

45 Grambling (SWAC) 42.6%, #1

42 Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) eliminated semifinal
42 UMES (MEAC) eliminated quarterfinal
42 Youngstown State (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
41 Western Illinois (OVC) eliminated semifinal
38 Chicago State (Ind.) #297 NET will not get at-large
33 Kansas City (Summit) eliminated quarterfinal
31 Sacramento State (Big Sky) eliminated semifinal
30 Tennessee-Martin (OVC) eliminated semifinal
24 Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) eliminated did not make conference tournament
24 Quinnipiac (MAAC) eliminated semifinal
23 Elon (CAA) eliminated first round
23 High Point (Big South) eliminated semifinal
23 Sacred Heart (NEC) eliminated quarterfinal
21 UC-Riverside (Big West) eliminated second round
20 Fort Wayne (Horizon) eliminated quarterfinal
20 Northern Colorado (Big Sky) eliminated quarterfinal
13 NJIT (Am E) eliminated did not make conference tournament
13 Utah Valley (WAC) eliminated first round
12 Central Arkansas (ASUN) eliminated did not make conference tournament
11 SC Upstate (Big South) eliminated first round
10 Presbyterian (Big South) eliminated quarterfinal
10 SIUE (OVC) eliminated second round
10 South Dakota (Summit) eliminated first round
8 Omaha (Summit) eliminated semifinal

5 UMass Lowell (Am E) 28.1%, #2

5 Incarnate Word (Southland)eliminated did not make conference tournament
1 Cal Baptist (WAC) eliminated second round
1 North Alabama (ASUN) eliminated semifinal
0 Merrimack (NEC) eliminated final

Ranked by Probability

Stetson Hatters (51) ASUN Champion

42.6% Grambling (SWAC) (45), #1
28.1% UMass Lowell (Am E) (5), #2

35 Teams Have Been Eliminated for this season.

Quinnipiac (MAAC) (24), #1 eliminated semifinal
Bethune-Cookman (SWAC) (42), #5 eliminated semifinal
Cal Baptist (WAC) (1), #8 eliminated second round
UC-Riverside (Big West) (21), #5 eliminated second round
Utah Valley (WAC) (13 misses), #5 eliminated first round
UMES (MEAC) (42), #7 eliminated quarterfinal
Merrimack (NEC) (0 misses), #2 eliminated final
Sacramento State (Big Sky) (31), #10 eliminated semifinal
Denver (Summit) (66), #7 eliminated final
New Hampshire (Am E) (68), #4 eliminated semifinal
Omaha (Summit) (8), #6 eliminated semifinal
Northern Colorado (Big Sky) (20), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
Maine (Am E) (70), #6 eliminated quarterfinal
Kansas City (Summit) (33), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
High Point (Big South) (23), #1 eliminated semifinal
The Citadel (SoCon) (84), #9 eliminated first round
Western Illinois (OVC) (41), #4 eliminated semifinal
William & Mary (CAA) (84), #13 eliminated first round
Tennessee-Martin (OVC) (30), #2 eliminated semifinal
Elon (CAA) (23), #11 eliminated first round
Presbyterian (Big South) (10), #6 eliminated semifinal
South Dakota (Summit) (10), #9 eliminated first round
Youngstown State (Horizon) (42), #2 eliminated quarterfinal
Fort Wayne (Horizon) (20), #8 eliminated quarterfinal
SIUE (OVC) (10), #6 eliminated 2nd round
North Alabama (ASUN) (1), #6 eliminated semifinal
Sacred Heart (NEC) (23), #3 eliminated first round
SC Upstate (Big South) (11), #8 eliminated first round
Army (Patriot) (84), #8 eliminated first round
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (SWAC) (24) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Incarnate Word (Southland) (5) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Central Arkansas (ASUN) (12) eliminated did not make conference tournament
NJIT (Am E) (13) eliminated did not make conference tournament
UTRGV (WAC) (54) eliminated did not make conference tournament
Chicago State (Ind.) (38) #297 NET will not get at-large

The mean expectation is 1.71 new teams. If we assume each conference is independent of each other, and no team will get an at-large berth, then the probability of first timers is:

1 41.3%
2 46.8%
3 12.0%

There is a 47% chance that one of UMass Lowell or Grambling will qualify.
There is a 41% chance that neither will qualify, leaving Stetson as the sole new team to the tournament.
There is a 12% chance that both UMass Lowell and Grambling will qualify in addition to Stetson.