(12-17-2023 09:10 AM)ken d Wrote: So what would the SEC do if the B1G were to make a huge pre-emptive strike and take all six of their adds before the SEC acts?
The B1G would keep a lot of ACC rivalries intact (FSU-Miami, UNC-Virginia, UNC-Duke, Duke-Georgia Tech) and restore the Maryland-Virginia rivalry. More importantly, they would have made huge inroads into the heart of SEC territory with four high population states.
Wouldn't that possibility prompt the SEC to be the first to act to prevent that?
You know better than this. The question is what would ESPN do? The SEC has long been prepared to expand, even at a little expense of their own, to protect their region. Kramer set up a plan for it in 1991 for exactly the circumstances of halting a Big 10 attempt to reach Southern markets.
ESPN has spent 30 years quietly building a monopoly in the Southeast and expanding into the Southwest. It wasn't all SEC, but rather a combination of all of the ACC which they built, the SEC which they used to get into the Southwest and part of the Plains, and the AAC which they used to finish out control.
Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, and Miami would be what they would want to keep. That's flagships and brands.
The cost to them would be N.C. State, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech.
Clemson has greater value than some of those, but likely not to the Big 10
From there it comes down to a matter of reasoning for ESPN. Which combinations control the sufficient amount of any particular state to keep profits maximized?
In Florida you have a super majority of viewers of college sports by adding Florida State to Florida. You increase the majority of Florida viewers and add more reach in the state by adding Miami to Florida. Florida State in the Big 10 without Miami puts the Big 10 in with the brand that has the second most viewers, but in a region where the Big 10 doesn't have as many alumni as they would in Miami and Tampa/St.Pete.
In Georgia the dominance resides with UGa which even carries the simple majority of Atlanta with Tech only a point or two behind. The largest other alumni bases in Atlanta belong to Auburn, Alabama, Clemson and Tennessee.
The situation in North Carolina and Virginia is more obvious where 2nd state schools carry a significant % though not the majority in North Carolina and where the second state school actually carries a simple majority of viewers in Virginia.
Clemson splits South Carolina holding a slight edge on viewers in a state of 5 million.
Outside of the ACC Kansas likely holds interest for ESPN as well.
ESPN has not needed Big 10 basketball. They held rights to Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and the rest of the ACC and SEC hoops, and about half of the Big 12's and PAC 12's rights until the PAC 12 blew up.
Figure out what is most important to ESPN to retain, and you'll figure out the rest of this realignment.
To economically halt the attempt of FOX to get into the Southeast through Florida State, ESPN should move them to the SEC, and this is something ESPN could do and should have already done, and their best opportunity to do so was in 2011 when their bigger expansion plans blew up and their crawler announced Clemson and FSU's move to the SEC. They allowed themselves to be halted to make another deal. It will be difficult now, but not impossible due to the cost of getting out of the GOR. FSU's latest efforts to wiggle free seem to be centered around getting the State of Florida to grant them indemnity against the contract the way Texas granted such to Texas Tech against the lawsuit filed by Mike Leach for his firing. One was related to a contract with a person and not with other states so I doubt this has the legs they may think it has and the venue would be in North Carolina.
North Carolina, Virginia, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Miami and Clemson would be the best response to FSU and Duke to the Big 10. Those six effectively isolate FSU and limit the Big 10's impact. Giving slightly less than half of Atlanta would not harm either the SEC or ESPN. Duke puts the Big 10 in North Carolina, but actually strengthens their viewers in the Northeast, it doesn't impact the viewer control in that state.
FOX's play will be for both Miami and FSU. That gives them enough of the Florida market to damage ESPN's revenues there. The SEC would simply have no more of Florida than they do now, but the Big 10 would disrupt the advertising profits of the SEC in the state.
I've left Notre Dame out of the discussion. They are obviously the most valuable piece of the puzzle left for anyone, but they aren't consequential to the SEC's interests unless for some reason of their own they wanted an affiliation with the SEC.
If the SEC and Big 10 were making these moves, they would be to 20 schools. If the networks make them, they could be to 22 or 24. The SEC contract had a pro rata clause for additions which seemed rather obvious. The SEC had always been limited to actual value delivered for new members and were fine with that. Pro rata must have been for ESPN's use.
But of course, the simplest solution is just to move Florida State to the SEC and take part of what they would have spent moving more teams to defend against FSU moving to the Big 10 and give the ACC a raise.
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ACC Schools Relative to the SEC and Big 10 and By the Numbers
