I am thinking through two different scenarios and want to get this board's thoughts:

Scenario 1: Game Theory It Out
Starting with just the Big 10 and the SEC, setting all other factors, if the two conferences were able to collude to pick apart the ACC, which teams would go where?

I.e, what combinations of schools could each conference get where they both could say "we win" that round? Is whoever gets UNC the winner no matter what?

In my thought process, the Big 10 coming away with something like: Notre Dame, Miami, GT, and Duke might be solid enough to be considered a "win" but that gives the SEC FSU, Clemson, UNC and UVA. Maybe the SEC "has" to take Virginia Tech so the Big 10 can take UVA and leave Duke out? Or what would "equal" expansions look like?

Scenario 2: Draft Time
If the Big 10 and the SEC just took turns picking teams, what does it end up looking like? (Assuming the leagues can stop when they are satisfied)

Either league could go first. Does the league that goes first automatically take Notre Dame or does one allow the other to get Notre Dame in order to get UNC? Is one league okay with Miami over FSU?

(02-19-2024 04:30 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I am thinking through two different scenarios and want to get this board's thoughts:

Scenario 1: Game Theory It Out
Starting with just the Big 10 and the SEC, setting all other factors, if the two conferences were able to collude to pick apart the ACC, which teams would go where?

I.e, what combinations of schools could each conference get where they both could say "we win" that round? Is whoever gets UNC the winner no matter what?

In my thought process, the Big 10 coming away with something like: Notre Dame, Miami, GT, and Duke might be solid enough to be considered a "win" but that gives the SEC FSU, Clemson, UNC and UVA. Maybe the SEC "has" to take Virginia Tech so the Big 10 can take UVA and leave Duke out? Or what would "equal" expansions look like?

Scenario 2: Draft Time
If the Big 10 and the SEC just took turns picking teams, what does it end up looking like? (Assuming the leagues can stop when they are satisfied)

Either league could go first. Does the league that goes first automatically take Notre Dame or does one allow the other to get Notre Dame in order to get UNC? Is one league okay with Miami over FSU?

Remember the starting points. The Big 10 is starting at 18 and needs 1 more PAC school to have 4 divisions of 5 including one out West.

The SEC is starting at 16 and can add 4 to get to 20. Just one out west groups that division, which is one reason why I lift up Kansas.

If the Big 10 goes to 24 they need two out west to have a division of 6.

At 24 the SEC still only needs 1 to the West, but could handle a second.

First round win for the Big 10: Move to 20 with Notre Dame and Stanford.
First round SEC win: Move to 20 with Duke, Florida State, North Carolina and Virginia. Why not Clemson? The Big 10 isn't taking them so pick up someone they may want that we want. Keeping Duke, UNC and UVa together cements them into this conference.

Second round win for the Big 10 to 24: Miami for a Florida AAU school, Georgia Tech for a large city AAU school. Both of these meet preferences for Notre Dame. Arizona State, and Colorado for the Big 10. Thats nearly 14 million with two markets.

Second round win for the SEC: Clemson as the best available brand, Kansas for the hoops ascendancy and its natural fit with the new SEC West. Virginia Tech and N.C. State to fully cement those areas as SEC states by taking the better football teams in each. Colorado doesn't fit us and Arizona is too far. If objections are raised over either Louisville earns more revenue. If there are objections to both or to Louisville as 4th then look to South Florida. They have AAU status, enrollment on campus of 55,000 undergraduate (third best in the state behind Central Florida and U of Florida) and with SEC schools coming into to Tampa could average over 60,000 in attendance at the pro stadium and could grow their campus site as they have space.

(02-19-2024 04:30 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I am thinking through two different scenarios and want to get this board's thoughts:

Scenario 1: Game Theory It Out
Starting with just the Big 10 and the SEC, setting all other factors, if the two conferences were able to collude to pick apart the ACC, which teams would go where?

I.e, what combinations of schools could each conference get where they both could say "we win" that round? Is whoever gets UNC the winner no matter what?

In my thought process, the Big 10 coming away with something like: Notre Dame, Miami, GT, and Duke might be solid enough to be considered a "win" but that gives the SEC FSU, Clemson, UNC and UVA. Maybe the SEC "has" to take Virginia Tech so the Big 10 can take UVA and leave Duke out? Or what would "equal" expansions look like?

Scenario 2: Draft Time
If the Big 10 and the SEC just took turns picking teams, what does it end up looking like? (Assuming the leagues can stop when they are satisfied)

Either league could go first. Does the league that goes first automatically take Notre Dame or does one allow the other to get Notre Dame in order to get UNC? Is one league okay with Miami over FSU?

I would pay good money to watch a live draft, like 2-4 hours long, in the format of the NFL draft with Petitti and Sankey go to the podium to announce the pick. Assuming we have a number from the ACC and that number is much higher than the XII exit fee, who's going to stop them?

On stage are Petitti, Sankey, and a representative from each of their 34 respective schools. It'd be brilliant TV.

20 and 24 are numbers people gravitate towards, including myself, because they are easily divisible. When I look at available schools, 22 sticks out like a better option. It doesn't really leave meat on the bone but it also doesn't stretch itself thin.

The commissioners coin flip and (because this is the SEC board), the SEC goes first:
SEC - #17 Florida St
B1G - #19 Miami
SEC - #18 North Carolina
B1G - #20 Virginia
SEC - #19 Virginia Tech
B1G - #21 Georgia Tech
SEC - #20 Duke
B1G - #22 Stanford
SEC - #21 Clemson
SEC - #22 Kansas

In the aftermath, the XII and ACC shuffle a little bit, expand, and create two 14-school conferences with a scheduling agreement.

B1G
Georgia Tech, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio St, Oregon, Penn St, Purdue, Rutgers, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin

SEC
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Duke, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech

ACC
Atlantic: Boston College, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Syracuse, Wake Forest, West Virginia
Metro: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, SMU, Tulane

XII
Central: Baylor, BYU, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech
Pacific: Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Oregon St, Utah, Washington St

(02-20-2024 11:39 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 04:30 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I am thinking through two different scenarios and want to get this board's thoughts:

Scenario 1: Game Theory It Out
Starting with just the Big 10 and the SEC, setting all other factors, if the two conferences were able to collude to pick apart the ACC, which teams would go where?

I.e, what combinations of schools could each conference get where they both could say "we win" that round? Is whoever gets UNC the winner no matter what?

In my thought process, the Big 10 coming away with something like: Notre Dame, Miami, GT, and Duke might be solid enough to be considered a "win" but that gives the SEC FSU, Clemson, UNC and UVA. Maybe the SEC "has" to take Virginia Tech so the Big 10 can take UVA and leave Duke out? Or what would "equal" expansions look like?

Scenario 2: Draft Time
If the Big 10 and the SEC just took turns picking teams, what does it end up looking like? (Assuming the leagues can stop when they are satisfied)

Either league could go first. Does the league that goes first automatically take Notre Dame or does one allow the other to get Notre Dame in order to get UNC? Is one league okay with Miami over FSU?

I would pay good money to watch a live draft, like 2-4 hours long, in the format of the NFL draft with Petitti and Sankey go to the podium to announce the pick. Assuming we have a number from the ACC and that number is much higher than the XII exit fee, who's going to stop them?

On stage are Petitti, Sankey, and a representative from each of their 34 respective schools. It'd be brilliant TV.

20 and 24 are numbers people gravitate towards, including myself, because they are easily divisible. When I look at available schools, 22 sticks out like a better option. It doesn't really leave meat on the bone but it also doesn't stretch itself thin.

The commissioners coin flip and (because this is the SEC board), the SEC goes first:
SEC - #17 Florida St
B1G - #19 Miami
SEC - #18 North Carolina
B1G - #20 Virginia
SEC - #19 Virginia Tech
B1G - #21 Georgia Tech
SEC - #20 Duke
B1G - #22 Stanford
SEC - #21 Clemson
SEC - #22 Kansas

In the aftermath, the XII and ACC shuffle a little bit, expand, and create two 14-school conferences with a scheduling agreement.

B1G
Georgia Tech, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio St, Oregon, Penn St, Purdue, Rutgers, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin

SEC
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Duke, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech

ACC
Atlantic: Boston College, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Syracuse, Wake Forest, West Virginia
Metro: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, SMU, Tulane

XII
Central: Baylor, BYU, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech
Pacific: Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Oregon St, Utah, Washington St

Thanks for your response. I think your analysis makes sense with the Big reacting to each pick with some counter-picks by the SEC (VT).

Would it change if ND is available? Does the SEC pick them first or let them go to the Big?

(02-20-2024 11:50 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(02-20-2024 11:39 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(02-19-2024 04:30 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I am thinking through two different scenarios and want to get this board's thoughts:

Scenario 1: Game Theory It Out
Starting with just the Big 10 and the SEC, setting all other factors, if the two conferences were able to collude to pick apart the ACC, which teams would go where?

I.e, what combinations of schools could each conference get where they both could say "we win" that round? Is whoever gets UNC the winner no matter what?

In my thought process, the Big 10 coming away with something like: Notre Dame, Miami, GT, and Duke might be solid enough to be considered a "win" but that gives the SEC FSU, Clemson, UNC and UVA. Maybe the SEC "has" to take Virginia Tech so the Big 10 can take UVA and leave Duke out? Or what would "equal" expansions look like?

Scenario 2: Draft Time
If the Big 10 and the SEC just took turns picking teams, what does it end up looking like? (Assuming the leagues can stop when they are satisfied)

Either league could go first. Does the league that goes first automatically take Notre Dame or does one allow the other to get Notre Dame in order to get UNC? Is one league okay with Miami over FSU?

I would pay good money to watch a live draft, like 2-4 hours long, in the format of the NFL draft with Petitti and Sankey go to the podium to announce the pick. Assuming we have a number from the ACC and that number is much higher than the XII exit fee, who's going to stop them?

On stage are Petitti, Sankey, and a representative from each of their 34 respective schools. It'd be brilliant TV.

20 and 24 are numbers people gravitate towards, including myself, because they are easily divisible. When I look at available schools, 22 sticks out like a better option. It doesn't really leave meat on the bone but it also doesn't stretch itself thin.

The commissioners coin flip and (because this is the SEC board), the SEC goes first:
SEC - #17 Florida St
B1G - #19 Miami
SEC - #18 North Carolina
B1G - #20 Virginia
SEC - #19 Virginia Tech
B1G - #21 Georgia Tech
SEC - #20 Duke
B1G - #22 Stanford
SEC - #21 Clemson
SEC - #22 Kansas

In the aftermath, the XII and ACC shuffle a little bit, expand, and create two 14-school conferences with a scheduling agreement.

B1G
Georgia Tech, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio St, Oregon, Penn St, Purdue, Rutgers, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin

SEC
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Duke, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kansas, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech

ACC
Atlantic: Boston College, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, South Florida, Syracuse, Wake Forest, West Virginia
Metro: Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, SMU, Tulane

XII
Central: Baylor, BYU, Iowa St, Kansas St, Oklahoma St, TCU, Texas Tech
Pacific: Arizona, Arizona St, California, Colorado, Oregon St, Utah, Washington St

Thanks for your response. I think your analysis makes sense with the Big reacting to each pick with some counter-picks by the SEC (VT).

Would it change if ND is available? Does the SEC pick them first or let them go to the Big?

If Notre Dame is on the table, you gotta take them.

SEC - #17 Notre Dame
B1G - #19 Florida St

This next pick becomes the toughest. Do you double-down in the Florida thus not allowing the B1G to plant a second flag in the State or do you take North Carolina?

SEC - #18 North Carolina
B1G - #20 Miami
SEC - #19 Virginia
B1G - #21 Duke
SEC - #20 Virginia Tech
B1G - #22 Georgia Tech
SEC - #21 Clemson
SEC - #22 Kansas