Disclaimer
Input the P4/Indy schedules to get a jump start on seeing what this new alignment and new playoff look like. REMEMBER, this is just 1 simulation with lots of random variables, especially preseason. I am not saying UCLA or MSU are going 11-1 next year, only that in 1 scenario it happened.

Pre-CCG Rankings
#1 (12-0) Penn State
#2 (11-1) Georgia *14 point loss to Ole Miss
#3 (11-1) Ole Miss *7 point loss to Oklahoma
#4 (11-1) UCLA *15 point loss to Penn State
#5 (11-1) Michigan *4 point loss to Washington
#6 (11-1) Michigan St *20 point loss to Michigan
#7 (10-2) Alabama *loss to Georgia and Oklahoma
#8 (9-3) Oregon *loss to UCLA and MSU
#9 (11-1) TCU *6 point loss to UCF
#10 (8-4) LSU *lost to USC/UCLA/Miss/Bama
#11 (11-1) North Carolina *9 point loss to FSU
#12 (10-2) Texas A&M *loss to Notre Dame and LSU
#13 (9-3) Oklahoma *loss to Aub/Tex/LSU
#14 (10-2) Kansas St *loss to Tulane and BYU
#15 (10-2) OK State *loss to KSU and TCU
#16 (9-3) Washington *loss to PSU/UCLA/UO after starting 9-0

Conference Strength
WOW! Look at all those SEC/B1G teams. Maybe they were right to want so many auto bids? They may just have more "top" teams. Here are the average conference strengths for the P4:
1610 SEC
1562 ACC
1552 Big Ten
1536 Big 12
1450 typical strength of the best G5

Not too varied. SEC is a head above the rest, which explains LSU's inclusion. The Big Ten looks good, though, with all those 1-loss teams. The ACC Coastal-ed itself.

CCGs
So... uh... who goes to the SEC and B1G Championship Games? Penn State is undefeated. #4-#6 are all 8-1 in conference, but UCLA's conference schedule was the toughest. Ole Miss, Georgia, and Texas A&M all went 7-1 in SEC play, but thankfully #12 A&M had the weakest conference schedule. 2 rematches, but not bad.

#9 TCU plays #15 KSU in Arlington, both 8-1 in conference. #11 North Carolina was the only ACC team to go 7-1 in conference. #20 (9-3) Florida State, #29 (9-3) Wake Forest, and #53! (8-4) Virginia Tech all went 6-2, tied for 2nd place. Wake gets the nod. Sheesh. ACC better add CFP Rankings to their tie-breakers.

CCG stakes
The P4 champs all get byes. The SEC and B1G CG losers probably still host games. TCU might cling to a playoff spot with a loss. If the G5 were in here, the best one would nab the #12 spot most likely, though a Wake upset could catapult a 2-loss American champ into a bye and maybe a MWC champ to a bid as #5 champ. Let us sim the results:

38-37 || Georgia > Ole Miss [Georgia new #1]
31-27 || UCLA > Penn State [UCLA new #2]
24-21 || UNC > Wake [UNC new #9]
41-17 || KSU > TCU [KSU new #10]

New, 12-team Playoff
#12 G5 Champ @ #5 (12-1) Penn State, to FIESTA vs. #4 (11-2) Kansas State
#11 (8-4) LSU @ #6 (11-1) Michigan, to ORANGE vs. #3 (12-1) North Carolina
#10 (9-3) Oregon @ #7 (11-2) Ole Miss, to ROSE vs. #2 (12-1) UCLA
#9 (10-2) Alabama @ #8 (11-1) Michigan St, to SUGAR vs. #1 (12-1) Georgia

Boring playoff? Maybe. But of course we don't have a season's worth of story-lines juicing the narrative.

What happened to Ohio St in this scenario? Did the wheels completely fall off?

(02-24-2024 08:01 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  What happened to Ohio St in this scenario? Did the wheels completely fall off?

Right? Not too bad. They went 8-4. #22. Lost to MSU (who must have gotten a Heisman contender in the portal) by 5, Oregon by 1, Michigan by 3, and Penn State by... 28. Switch that Penn State game to a 3-point victory and they bump LSU for the last playoff spot.

#56 7-5 Wisconsin was the only other Big Ten team with a winning record. Yipes!

Side note: the Gators started 5-2 again and again missed bowl eligibility

'Cause I'm in the mood. Here is Sim #2. I swear. I did not pick this because the Gators went 12-0 and are #1. But the Gators went 12-0 and are #1!

Pre-CCG Rankings:
#1 (12-0) Florida
#2 (12-0) Ohio State
#3 (12-0) Notre Dame
#4 (11-1) Michigan *loss to Ohio State
#5 (11-1) Penn State *loss to Ohio State
#6 (11-1) Alabama *loss to Tennessee
#7 (10-2) Georgia *loss to Alabama and Florida
#8 (10-2) UCLA *loss to Penn State and USC
#9 (9-3) Texas A&M *loss to ND/FCS/UF to start the year
#10 (8-4) LSU *loss to UCLA/Bama/A&M/UF
#11 (10-2) Florida St *loss to UF/ND
#12 (10-2) Clemson *loss to UGA/FSU
#13 (8-4) Oregon *loss to OSU/tOSU/UM/UCLA
#14 (11-1) Kansas St *loss to ISU in season finale
#15 (10-2) BYU *loss to KSU and Wyoming

LSU and Oregon again hitting ranks above where other teams of their loss count reside. Those schedules must be pretty heavy at the top.

Conference Strength
1622 SEC
1600 Big Ten
1568 Big 12
1541 ACC

Conference Tie-Breakers
Florida went undefeated and Alabama and A&M both went 7-1. The loss to the Gators actually helps the Aggies' conference SOR and they advance to a rematch of their September 3-point loss. Michigan and Penn State are both 8-1 in the Big Ten, looking for a rematch against the 9-0 Buckeyes. The Nittany Lions' SOR outpaced the Wolverines' and we are spared an immediate rematch.

Florida State was 8-0. Clemson and 9-3 Louisville were both 7-1. The Cardinals' loss was to the Tigers, and so the ACC finally gets a title matchup between its most successful programs of the last 20 years. Kansas State and BYU both finished atop the Big 12 standings at 8-1.

CCG results they'll all get byes
28-27 || Ohio State > Penn State (new #1)
26-14 || Florida > Texas A&M (slips to #2)
32-31 || Florida St > Clemson (leaps to #6)
38-14 || Kansas St > BYU (jumps to #10)

New, 12-team Playoff
#9 (10-2) Georgia @ #8 (11-1) Alabama, to ROSE vs. #1 (13-0) Ohio State
#10 (10-2) UCLA @ #7 (11-2) Penn State, to SUGAR vs. #2 (13-0) Florida
#11 (9-4) Texas A&M @ #6 (11-1) Michigan, to ORANGE vs. #3 (11-2) Florida State
#12 G5 Champ @ #5 (12-0) Notre Dame, to FIESTA vs. #4 (12-1) Kansas State

Wow. 9 P2 teams (if you count Notre Dame) and 3 interlopers again. Yay (dull sarcasm). Exciting.

Maybe when the G5 schedules are fleshed out, KSU's 16-point whooping of Tulane will bring more national excitement. It honestly may be that given the mass of games on the schedule, the M2 are the "bottom half" and are treated like the G5 normally would. I think I'll wait 'til those schedules are input and run a new set of sims.

For fun, I'll apply the reported AQ playoff method. As noted in the last post, the M2 rankings 'may' be skewed with no G5 schedules. G5 schedules should come out in the next week or so.

Sim #1
Second Saturday:
#4 (11-1) Michigan vs. #20 (10-2) Florida St
#5 (11-2) Ole Miss vs. #14 (11-2) TCU
#6 (11-1) Michigan St vs. #11 (8-4) LSU
Third Saturday: (the games with Champs 3,4,&5)
#3 (12-1) Penn State vs. #?? (X-X) G5 Champ
#7 (10-2) Alabama vs. #10 (11-2) Kansas St
#8 (9-3) Oregon vs. #9 (12-1) North Carolina
Byes:
#1 (12-1) Georgia & #2 (12-1) UCLA

Sim #2
Second Saturday:
#4 (11-1) Michigan vs. #17 (9-3) West Virginia
#5 (11-2) Penn State vs. #14 (10-3) Clemson
#8 (10-2) Georgia vs. #9 (10-2) UCLA
Third Saturday: (the games with Champs 3,4,&5)
#3 (12-0) Notre Dame vs. #?? (X-X) G5 Champ
#6 (11-2) Florida State vs. #11 (9-4) Texas A&M
#7 (11-1) Alabama vs. #10 (12-1) Kansas State
Byes:
#1 (13-0) Ohio State & #2 (13-0) Florida

In sim #1 FSU gets in with an AQ ranked #20.

In sim #2 WVU gets in with an AQ ranked #17

Its entirely possible the G5 champ is ranked above these two.

(02-29-2024 07:31 PM)Garden_KC Wrote:  In sim #1 FSU gets in with an AQ ranked #20.

In sim #2 WVU gets in with an AQ ranked #17

Its entirely possible the G5 champ is ranked above these two.

For sure. It may even be possible 2 G5s are ranked above these teams.

Sim #3 Okay, all but the MAC schedules are in. Does the M2 still lag? Maybe not as much. The pre-CCG rankings look pretty normal. Texas stands out as a 1-loss team above 2 12-0 Power teams. Miami, with 1 loss, looks rather laggard behind most all the 2-loss Power teams.

Pre-CCG Rankings
#1 (11-1) Texas *loss to Michigan
#2 (12-0) Ohio State
#3 (12-0) OK State
#4 (11-1) Alabama *loss to Wisconsin
#5 (11-1) Notre Dame *loss to A&M
#6 (10-2) LSU *loss to A&M and Bama
#7 (11-1) Oregon St *loss to SJSU
#8 (10-2) Georgia *loss to Texas and Bama
#9 (10-2) Michigan *loss to Washington and Ohio St
#10 (10-2) Texas A&M *loss to Miss St and Texas
#11 (11-1) Miami *loss to Syracuse
#12 (9-3) USC *loss to LSU/UM/ND
#13 (9-3) Florida St *loss to Clem/Mia/ND
#14 (9-3) Oklahoma *loss to Tex/Bama/LSU
#15 (11-1) Tulane *loss to Oklahoma

Teams 9-14 almost all lost the last week of the regular season. Exciting! Unless it is one of those things where they lost but had already clinched their CCG and their greatest rivalry meant the difference between the #2 and the #3 seed....

Conference Strength
This explains, Texas. The SEC is towering over the other Power conferences. American, led by 11-1 Tulane, is the best of the G5.
1625 SEC
1561 ACC
1555 Big Ten
1544 Big 12
1481 American
1441 Sun Belt
1438 MW
1411 CUSA

Conference Tie-Breakers
Texas and Alabama both went undefeated in conference, losing to B1G teams (though the heavy middle of the SEC vastly outpreformed other conferences' middles), and will meet in Atlanta. In the Big Ten, Michigan's loss in The Game eliminated them and so undefeated Ohio State will play... 9-3 USC? Yes, the Trojans are the only Big Ten team with a single loss.

OK State went undefeated in the Big 12 and will play #18 (10-2) TCU, who defeated the only other 2-loss team #21 (9-3) Texas Tech. Miami is the lone 1-loss ACC team. Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Syracuse all finished 6-2. Some convoluted tie-breaker gave it to the Seminoles.

CCG Results
31-17 || Alabama over Texas (move to #2)
43-7 || Ohio State over USC (move to #1)
20-14 || OK State over TCU (stay at #3)
36-17 || Miami over Florida St (jump to #6)
36-14 || Tulane over Memphis (rise to #12)

New, 12-team Playoff
#12 (12-1) Tulane @ #5 (11-2) Texas to ORANGE vs. #4 (12-1) Miami
#11 (9-3) Oklahoma @ #6 (10-2) LSU to FIESTA vs. #3 (13-0) OK State
#10 (10-2) Texas A&M @ #7 (11-1) Notre Dame to SUGAR vs. #2 (12-1) Alabama
#9 (10-2) Michigan @ #8 (10-2) Georgia to ROSE vs. #1 (13-0) Ohio State

My committee rules would disallow placing teams in the same quadrant as the team they last played. OU-LSU is an immediate rematch. Michigan's last game was against Ohio State. A&M played Notre Dame and Alabama earlier in the season, but that is okay.

Crayton's Perfect 16-team Playoff
**first round, Army-Navy weekend**
NASHVILLE || #16 (10-2) Virginia Tech vs. #10 (10-2) Texas A&M
CHICAGO || #15 (9-3) Wisconsin vs. #11 (9-3) Oklahoma
LAS VEGAS || #14 (9-3) Clemson vs. #13 (11-1) Oregon State

**second round, late December (2 on weeknights)**
#4 (11-2) Texas vs. #13 LAS VEGAS winner
#5 (10-2) LSU vs. #12 (12-1) Tulane
#6 (12-1) Miami vs. #11 CHICAGO winner
#7 (11-1) Notre Dame vs. #10 NASHVILLE winner
#8 (10-2) Georgia vs. #9 (10-2) Michigan

Second Round winners meet Top 3 Champs in New Years Bowls

Second post tonight. #651 While my sim walks through 10,000 scenarios, I sometimes peek at how they are doing. I happened to peek at #651 and saw an interesting tie-breaker. I'll summarize the whole sim, mostly because I'm having fun tonight with the new schedules.

Pre-CCG Rankings
#1 (12-0) Georgia
#2 (11-1) Alabama *4 point loss to Georgia
#3 (11-1) USC *24 point loss to LSU
#4 (11-1) Okahoma *2 point loss to Alabama
#5 (12-0) Utah
#6 (11-1) Penn State *6 point loss to USC
#7 (11-1) Ohio St *11 point loss to Penn State
#8 (12-0) Louisville
#9 (10-2) Notre Dame *1 point loss to Louisville (WOW!) and 6 to USC
#10 (12-0) Air Force
#11 (9-3) Michigan *losses to USC, UW, and OSU
#12 (9-3) Oregon *losses to UCLA, OSU, and UM

Conference Tie-Breakers
Georgia and Alabama obviously go for a rematch (and likely another in the playoff). USC and Penn State will do the same in Indy. #22 (10-2) Kansas St nudges #25 (9-3) UCF for the right to challenge undefeated Utah. But, in the ACC, Undefeated Louisville is joined by #18 (10-2) Florida State and #24 (10-2) NC State going undefeated in conference. And guess which of the 3 is left out?

CCG Results
35-33 || Alabama over Georgia (reclaims #1)
28-20 || Penn State over USC (gets #3)
19-17 || Kansas State over Utah (ranked only #14)
43-28 || NC State wallops Florida State (now #19)
26-17 || Boise upsets Air Force (Broncos ranked #33)
37=21 || East Carolina over UTSA (Pirates get #30 and a playoff bid)

New, 12-team playoff
#12 (11-2) East Carolina @ #5 (12-1) Georgia to ORANGE vs. #4 NC State
#11 (10-2) Notre Dame @ #6 (11-1) Oklahoma to FIESTA vs. #3 Kansas St
#10 (12-0) Louisville @ #7 (11-1) Ohio State to ROSE vs. #2 Penn State
#9 (11-2) USC @ #8 (12-1) Utah to SUGAR vs. #1 Alabama

Crayton's Perfect Playoff
NASHVILLE || #14 (8-4) UCLA vs. #9 (12-0) Louisville
CHICAGO || #13 (8-4) Washington vs. #10 (10-2) Notre Dame
LAS VEGAS || #12 (9-3) Michigan vs. #11 (9-3) Oregon
tempting to create UM-ND in Chicago

#4 (12-1) Georgia vs. #16 (11-2) East Carolina
#5 (11-1) Oklahoma vs. #15 (11-2) NC State
#6 (11-1) Ohio State vs. #11 LAS VEGAS winner
#7 (12-1) Utah vs. #10 CHICAGO winner
#8 (11-2) USC vs. #9 NASHVILLE winner

Sim #5 MAC schedules are in. Shouldn't impact things too greatly. This one has some crazy 4-way tie-breakers in the P2.

Pre-CCG Rankings
#1 (12-0) Notre Dame
#2 (11-1) Texas *10 point loss to A&M in season finale
#3 (11-1) Georgia *4 point loss to Texas
#4 (11-1) Ohio St *3 point loss to Oregon
#5 (11-1) Louisville *8 point loss to Notre Dame
#6 (11-1) Oregon *18 point loss to Michigan
#7 (11-1) Ole Miss *5 point loss to Georgia
#8 (11-1) Florida St *38 point loss to Notre Dame
#9 (11-1) Penn State *1 point loss to Ohio State
#10 (12-0) Kansas St
#11 (10-2) Texas A&M *10 point loss to ND, *3 to the Gators
#12 (10-2) Michigan *2 point loss to Texas, 15 to Ohio State
#13 (11-1) TCU *3 point loss to KSU
#14 (9-3) Clemson *54 point loss to UGA, 13 to FSU, 14 to L'ville
#19 (10-2) App St *64 point loss to Clemson, 2 to FCS
#24 (11-1) FAU *7 point loss to UNT, beat Michigan St
#25 (10-2) Air Force *4 point loss to Baylor, 5 to Fresno St

Wow. Lots of 11-1 teams.

Conference Tie-Breakers
4 teams finish the SEC at 7-1. While A&M was the only team to go undefeated against the others (defeating Texas 31-21 to close the season), they lost on the strength of conference schedule tie-breaker. #2 Texas and #3 Georgia will rematch their October showdown.

The Big Ten is just as messy. 4 teams all finished 8-1. #6 Oregon and #12 Michigan advance because, well, math (strength of conference schedule). I wonder if these mega conferences will add CFP ranking to the tie-breakers.

Louisville and Florida State both go 8-0 and will meet in Charlotte. TCU is the lone 1-loss team in the XII and will meet KSU in Arlington.

CCG Results
38-31 || Kansas State over TCU (bounds to #1, over Notre Dame)
59-31 || Georgia over Texas (stays at #3)
32-28 || Florida St over Louisville (slides up to #6)
36-17 || Michigan over Oregon (skips up to #7)
28-24 || App St over Louisiana (elevates to #17, good enough for the G5 spot)

Kansas State's leap was due to having a great eye-test, just not one as good as #5 Louisville and #9 Penn State. With the Cardinals losing and the Lions staying home, the Wildcats all of a sudden looked like the best team on the gridiron... even if their XII schedule was a little squishy. That goose-egg in the loss column, coupled with a crown on their head was enough to pass teams with slightly better strength of records.

New, 12-team playoff
#12 (11-2) App State @ #5 (12-0) Notre Dame to ROSE vs. #4 (11-2) Michigan
#11 (11-1) Penn State @ #6 (11-1) Ohio St to PEACH vs. #3 (12-1) Florida St
#10 (11-2) Louisville @ #7 (11-2) Texas to SUGAR vs. #2 (12-1) Georgia
#9 (11-2) Oregon @ #8 (11-1) Ole Miss to FIESTA vs. #1 (13-0) Kansas State

I'd think they'd avoid a Georgia-Texas three-peat. Still doesn't look right for Notre Dame to be #5 when undefeated.

And, because new playoff formats are fun, here are two I've posted as applied to the above Sim#5.

Crayton's Perfect Playoff (second then third week in December)
NASHVILLE: #9 (11-1) Ole Miss vs. #15 (9-3) Tennessee
CHICAGO: #11 (11-1) Penn State vs. #14 (8-4) Kentucky
LAS VEGAS: #12 (10-2) Texas A&M vs. #13 (9-3) Clemson

#4 (12-0) Notre Dame vs. #16 (11-2) App State
#5 (11-1) Ohio St vs. #12 LAS VEGAS winner
#6 (11-2) Texas vs. #11 CHICAGO winner
#7 (11-2) Michigan vs. #10 (11-2) Louisville
#8 (11-2) Oregon vs. NASHVILLE winner

30-team MEGA Playoff (no CCGs, second round hosted by highest remaining seed third weekend in December)
FIESTA BOWL REGION
#1 (12-0) Notre Dame (BYE)
#2 (11-1) Penn State vs. #X (8-4) Wake Forest (STATE COLLEGE)
#3 (12-0) Kansas St vs. #6 (10-2) Utah (ARLINGTON)
#4 (9-3) Clemson vs. #5 (8-4) Kentucky (CHARLOTTE)

PEACH BOWL REGION
#1 (11-1) Georgia vs. #X (9-3) Oregon St (ATHENS)
#2 (11-1) Louisville vs. #X (9-3) Western Kentucky (TAMPA)
#3 (11-1) Florida St vs. #6 (11-1) FAU (BOCA RATON)
#4 (11-1) TCU vs. #5 (8-4) Washington (FORT WORTH)

SUGAR BOWL REGION
#1 (11-1) Texas (BYE)
#2 (11-1) Ole Miss vs. #X (8-4) Ohio (DETROIT)
#3 (10-2) Texas A&M vs. #6 (8-4) Alabama (ATLANTA)
#4 (9-3) Oklahoma vs. #5 (7-5) Mississippi St (NORMAN)

ROSE BOWL REGION
#1 (11-1) Ohio St vs. #X (7-5) Virginia (COLUMBUS)
#2 (11-1) Oregon vs. #X (10-2) Air Force (LAS VEGAS)
#3 (10-2) Michigan vs. #6 (9-3) Missouri (INDIANAPOLIS)
#4 (9-3) Tennessee vs. #5 (10-2) App St (BIRMINGHAM)

Sim #6. Big Ten soars. Big 12 drops to G5 level. Two G5 playoff contenders.

Pre-CCG Rankings
#1 (12-0) Penn State
#2 (11-1) Michigan *close season with 18 point loss to OSU
#3 (12-0) Oklahoma
#4 (11-1) Ohio State *3 point loss to Penn State
#5 (11-1) Clemson *7 point loss to Georgia
#6 (11-1) Florida St *4 point loss to Clemson
#7 (10-2) USC *22 point loss to UM, 29 to PSU
#8 (9-3) Oregon *3 point loss to OSU, 12 to UM, 5 to Maryland
#9 (10-2) Georgia *3 point loss to Kentucky, 6 to Ole Miss
#10 (11-1) Memphis *25 point loss to Florida St
#11 (11-1) Northern Illinois *3 point loss to ND, beat NC State
#12 (10-2) Duke *3 point loss to FSU, 10 to VT
#13 (10-2) Tennessee *15 point loss to OU, 2 to Georgia
#14 (9-3) Texas *21 point loss to Michigan, 1 to OU, 4 to UGA
#18 (11-1) Kansas St *3 point loss to WVU
#19 (11-1) Oregon St *7 point loss to Oregon
#23 (11-1) Fresno St *21 point loss to Michigan
#24 (10-2) TCU *4 point loss to UCF, 5 points to SMU

Big 12's power rating is just barely above the American's. SEC edges the ACC for #2. Big Ten is clear #1.

Conference Tie-Breakers and Results
Georgia advances to face Oklahoma based on a head-to-head sweep of Tennessee and Texas. The other conferences had straight-forward tie-breakers.

38-31 || Penn State over Ohio State (keeps #1 seed)
42-24 || Clemson destroys Florida Staet (goes up to #4)
46-14 || Georgia destroys Oklahoma (up to #5)
31-24 || NIU over Ball State (#10, maybe 2 G5s?)
39-31 || Kansas State over TCU (#11 now)
40-28 || Navy over Memphis (AAC eliminated)
35-31 || Fresno over Wyoming (#22, no playoff bid)

New, 12-team playoff
#12 (10-2) Duke @ #5 (11-1) Michigan to FIESTA vs. #4 (12-1) Northern Illinois
#11 (12-1) Kansas St @ #6 (11-2) Ohio State to SUGAR vs. #3 (11-2) Georgia
#10 (9-3) Oregon @ #7 (12-1) Oklahoma to PEACH vs. #2 (12-1) Clemson
#9 (11-2) Florida St @ #8 (10-2) USC to ROSE vs. #1 (13-0) Penn State

Northern Illinois (really? NIU?) gets a bye!

And here are the expanded playoffs for Sim #6. I think I've got the seeding/site-selection algorithm set for the MEGA playoff; the calendar 'probably' works, but haven't fleshed it out completely.

Perfect 16-team playoff
LAS VEGAS #16 (8-4) Notre Dame vs. #9 (9-3) Oregon
CHICAGO #15 (8-3) Washington vs. #12 (10-2) Duke
NASHVILLE #14 (9-3) Texas vs. #13 (10-2) Tennessee

#4 (11-1) Michigan vs. LAS VEGAS winner
#5 (11-2) Ohio St vs. CHICAGO winner
#6 (12-1) Oklahoma vs. #11 (12-1) Kansas State
#7 (10-2) USC vs. #10 (12-1) Northern Illinois
#8 (11-2) Florida St vs. LAS VEGAS winner

MEGA Playoff
ROSE BOWL REGION
#1 (12-0) Penn State
#2 (9-3) Oregon vs. #X (11-1) Liberty (TAMPA)
#3 (11-1) Northern Illinois vs. #6 (9-3) North Carolina (DETROIT)
#4 (9-3) Iowa vs. #5 (11-1) Oregon St (CHICAGO)

PEACH BOWL REGION
#1 (11-1) Michigan
#2 (11-1) Clemson vs. #X (8-4) Alabama (CHARLOTTE)
#3 (10-2) Duke vs. #6 (9-3) Ole Miss (DURHAM)
#4 (9-3) Texas vs. #5 (8-4) Notre Dame (AUSTIN)

SUGAR BOWL REGION
#1 (12-0) Oklahoma vs. #X (10-2) Ball St (ATLANTA)
#2 (11-1) Florida St vs. #X (10-2) Troy (BIRMINGHAM)
#3 (10-2) Georgia vs. #6 (11-1) Fresno St (LAS VEGAS)
#4 (11-1) Kansas St vs. #5 (8-4) Washington (ARLINGTON)

FIESTA BOWL REGION
#1 (11-1) Ohio State vs. #X (7-5) Wisconsin (COLUMBUS)
#2 (10-2) USC vs. #X (9-3) Utah (LOS ANGELES)
#3 (11-1) Memphis vs. #6 (10-2) TCU (MEMPHIS)
#4 (10-2) Tennessee vs. #5 (8-4) LSU (KNOXVILLE)

Sim #7 At it again. This one points to the fact that the Big Ten and SEC may already have their dream playoff structure now. Their 9 teams plus champs from the ACC, XII, and AAC. Still too many byes though. Also, tie-breakers will be messy and new. I still vote we replace conference championship games with conference-owned first round playoff games.

Pre-CCG Rankings
#1 (12-0) Alabama
#2 (12-0) Michigan
#3 (11-1) LSU *loss to Alabama
#4 (10-2) Oklahoma *loss to Ala+LSU
#5 (10-2) Texas *loss to OU+UM
#6 (10-2) Georgia *loss to Ala+Texas
#7 (10-2) Penn State *loss to UW+UMD
#8 (9-3) USC *loss to LSU+UM+PSU
#9 (10-2) Ohio St *loss to PSU+UM
#10 (10-2) Utah *loss to TCU+BYU
#11 (11-1) Miami *loss to UF
#12 (10-2) Georgia Tech *loss to the U and UGA
#13 (10-2) Kansas St *loss to OkSt+ISU
#14 (9-3) Iowa St *loss to UH+TTU+UU

Conference Tie-Breakers
LSU and Texas are both 7-1 in conference. LSU has the better conference SOS (not to mention 1 fewer non-conference loss) and will meet Alabama in Atlanta. Penn State swept fellow 7-2 Big Ten teams (OSU and USC) and will face Michigan in Indianapolis.

The Big 12 will feature Utah and... #17 (9-3) OK State. Along with KSU the three finished 7-2 in conference; without any team sweeping the others it came down to strength of conference record. The ACC had an ugly year with a near FBS-average Strength of 1505 (1500 is average). Miami and (surprise!) Georgia Tech rose to the top as the only teams with fewer than 2 conference losses.

CCG Results
26-24 // Alabama over LSU (stays #1)
26-21 // Penn State upsets Michigan (rises to #3)
43-20 // GT avenges earlier loss to Miami (now #9)
54-20 // OK State rolls over Utah (a paltry #15)

G5 Race
Tulane was 8-3 and defeated #23 (10-1) Memphis to cinch home field against the Tigers in an immediate rematch. UAB (10-2) and East Carolina (9-3) were also locked in a 4-way tie for the American crown. Computers. The Green Wave punched their ticket to some P2 death trap by beating the Tigers again and finishing #24.

Out West, Air Force finished 11-1 and defeated 8-4 UNLV (who had the head-to-head tiebreaker over USU at 6-1), but ended up #28 as the conference as a whole stunk. Marshall was the great hope for the Sun Belt, finishing 10-2, but they lost by 3 scores to 9-3 South Alabama. (10-3) Toledo won the MAC and finished at #50. (10-3) NMSU won CUSA and finished #51.

2024 Playoff
#12 (10-3) Tulane @ #5 (12-1) Michigan to FIESTA vs. #4 (10-3) OK State
#11 (10-3) OK State @ #6 (11-2) LSU to ORANGE vs. #3 (11-2) Georgia Tech
#10 (10-2) Ohio St @ #7 (10-2) Oklahoma to ROSE vs. #2 (11-2) Penn State
#9 (9-3) USC @ #8 (10-2) Georgia to SUGAR vs. #1 (13-0) Alabama

(04-27-2024 03:39 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Sim #7 At it again. This one points to the fact that the Big Ten and SEC may already have their dream playoff structure now. Their 9 teams plus champs from the ACC, XII, and AAC. Still too many byes though. Also, tie-breakers will be messy and new. I still vote we replace conference championship games with conference-owned first round playoff games.

Pre-CCG Rankings
#1 (12-0) Alabama
#2 (12-0) Michigan
#3 (11-1) LSU *loss to Alabama
#4 (10-2) Oklahoma *loss to Ala+LSU
#5 (10-2) Texas *loss to OU+UM
#6 (10-2) Georgia *loss to Ala+Texas
#7 (10-2) Penn State *loss to UW+UMD
#8 (9-3) USC *loss to LSU+UM+PSU
#9 (10-2) Ohio St *loss to PSU+UM
#10 (10-2) Utah *loss to TCU+BYU
#11 (11-1) Miami *loss to UF
#12 (10-2) Georgia Tech *loss to the U and UGA
#13 (10-2) Kansas St *loss to OkSt+ISU
#14 (9-3) Iowa St *loss to UH+TTU+UU

Conference Tie-Breakers
LSU and Texas are both 7-1 in conference. LSU has the better conference SOS (not to mention 1 fewer non-conference loss) and will meet Alabama in Atlanta. Penn State swept fellow 7-2 Big Ten teams (OSU and USC) and will face Michigan in Indianapolis.

The Big 12 will feature Utah and... #17 (9-3) OK State. Along with KSU the three finished 7-2 in conference; without any team sweeping the others it came down to strength of conference record. The ACC had an ugly year with a near FBS-average Strength of 1505 (1500 is average). Miami and (surprise!) Georgia Tech rose to the top as the only teams with fewer than 2 conference losses.

CCG Results
26-24 // Alabama over LSU (stays #1)
26-21 // Penn State upsets Michigan (rises to #3)
43-20 // GT avenges earlier loss to Miami (now #9)
54-20 // OK State rolls over Utah (a paltry #15)

G5 Race
Tulane was 8-3 and defeated #23 (10-1) Memphis to cinch home field against the Tigers in an immediate rematch. UAB (10-2) and East Carolina (9-3) were also locked in a 4-way tie for the American crown. Computers. The Green Wave punched their ticket to some P2 death trap by beating the Tigers again and finishing #24.

Out West, Air Force finished 11-1 and defeated 8-4 UNLV (who had the head-to-head tiebreaker over USU at 6-1), but ended up #28 as the conference as a whole stunk. Marshall was the great hope for the Sun Belt, finishing 10-2, but they lost by 3 scores to 9-3 South Alabama. (10-3) Toledo won the MAC and finished at #50. (10-3) NMSU won CUSA and finished #51.

2024 Playoff
#12 (10-3) Tulane @ #5 (12-1) Michigan to FIESTA vs. #4 (10-3) OK State
#11 (10-3) OK State @ #6 (11-2) LSU to ORANGE vs. #3 (11-2) Georgia Tech
#10 (10-2) Ohio St @ #7 (10-2) Oklahoma to ROSE vs. #2 (11-2) Penn State
#9 (9-3) USC @ #8 (10-2) Georgia to SUGAR vs. #1 (13-0) Alabama

I'm confused, you have two Oklahoma States and one Oklahoma, and wouldn't Oklahoma remained #4 since they weren't in the CCG.

(04-28-2024 09:23 PM)jimrtex Wrote:  

(04-27-2024 03:39 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Sim #7 At it again. This one points to the fact that the Big Ten and SEC may already have their dream playoff structure now. Their 9 teams plus champs from the ACC, XII, and AAC. Still too many byes though. Also, tie-breakers will be messy and new. I still vote we replace conference championship games with conference-owned first round playoff games.

Pre-CCG Rankings
#1 (12-0) Alabama
#2 (12-0) Michigan
#3 (11-1) LSU *loss to Alabama
#4 (10-2) Oklahoma *loss to Ala+LSU
#5 (10-2) Texas *loss to OU+UM
#6 (10-2) Georgia *loss to Ala+Texas
#7 (10-2) Penn State *loss to UW+UMD
#8 (9-3) USC *loss to LSU+UM+PSU
#9 (10-2) Ohio St *loss to PSU+UM
#10 (10-2) Utah *loss to TCU+BYU
#11 (11-1) Miami *loss to UF
#12 (10-2) Georgia Tech *loss to the U and UGA
#13 (10-2) Kansas St *loss to OkSt+ISU
#14 (9-3) Iowa St *loss to UH+TTU+UU

2024 Playoff
#12 (10-3) Tulane @ #5 (12-1) Michigan to FIESTA vs. #4 (10-3) OK State
#11 (10-3) OK State @ #6 (11-2) LSU to ORANGE vs. #3 (11-2) Georgia Tech
#10 (10-2) Ohio St @ #7 (10-2) Oklahoma to ROSE vs. #2 (11-2) Penn State
#9 (9-3) USC @ #8 (10-2) Georgia to SUGAR vs. #1 (13-0) Alabama

I'm confused, you have two Oklahoma States and one Oklahoma, and wouldn't Oklahoma remained #4 since they weren't in the CCG.

Whoops. Texas would play Georgia in that 8/9 game and USC and tOSU would slip to 10 and 11. That is what I get trying to slide teams around because #15 OK State gets a bye.

Because Oklahoma did not win their conference they are ineligible for a bye. Same with 12-1 Michigan who is technically still #2 in the rankings it can do no better than the #5 ‘seed’.