I think sometimes we forget that power conferences aren't just about football. And when it comes to football we love to pretend like "P2" means every team in the Big 10 or SEC is somehow a competitive juggernaut when in reality it's just Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, and Georgia and a handful of other programs.

But back to the point just take a look at the college basketball rankings right now. The Big 12 has five teams in the top 12 including #1 and may even be a 6 bid conference this season. Along with a huge pickup of Arizona who is consistently a top tier program.

And with CFB in 2021 Baylor was 12-2 and ranked #4 and in 2022 TCU was 13-2 and ranked #2 with a championship appearance. And Texas still being a Big 12 team was ranked #3.

With the playoff expanding top talent isn't going to choose to sit on the bench and Vanderbilt and Ole Miss over UCF/Houston/Cincinnati long-term where they actually can get playing time and compete in the playoff. Especially when the transfer portal can effectively change an entire team in 1-2 seasons.

While your point isn't off, it's about market share. The supposed P2 has that in spades, even if not nearly as much as they think.

If they break off, UH won't just lose me as a fan for the most part but any break off not including UH will make me lose interest in college football or all college sports in general if it's bigger than football. I waste enough time on sports and have no problem transitioning more time toward the pro leagues and maybe less on sports in general.

We've already seen people like Wedge and Clarion Panther be alienated and I'd follow. At least we get the best talent in the world for the most part in the pro sports. As evidenced by the spread of talent in the NFL Draft, even from FCS and below, we can't say we get the absolute best all the time in the very top of college football, not even close.

(03-07-2024 12:48 AM)C2__ Wrote:  We've already seen people like Wedge and Clarion Panther be alienated and I'd follow.

For years, Wedge was one of this board’s 5 most active posters…up until June 30, 2022.

Then USC/UCLA announced they were moving to the B1G, and Wedge never posted again due to a broken heart.

(03-07-2024 12:48 AM)C2__ Wrote:  While your point isn't off, it's about market share. The supposed P2 has that in spades, even if not nearly as much as they think.

If they break off, UH won't just lose me as a fan for the most part but any break off not including UH will make me lose interest in college football or all college sports in general if it's bigger than football. I waste enough time on sports and have no problem transitioning more time toward the pro leagues and maybe less on sports in general.

We've already seen people like Wedge and Clarion Panther be alienated and I'd follow. At least we get the best talent in the world for the most part in the pro sports. As evidenced by the spread of talent in the NFL Draft, even from FCS and below, we can't say we get the absolute best all the time in the very top of college football, not even close.

The supposed breakoff isn't going to be the utopia that message boards think it will be. The height of college football and college sports in general was 2005-2014. When there was a lot of parity every conference had someone putting up their fist saying they were the best.

This whole P2 concept is just boring and will kill the sport because it's just going to result in OSU/Michigan/USC vs Alabama/Georgia/LSU/Texas every season.

(03-07-2024 01:04 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  The supposed breakoff isn't going to be the utopia that message boards think it will be. The height of college football and college sports in general was 2005-2014. When there was a lot of parity every conference had someone putting up their fist saying they were the best.

This whole P2 concept is just boring and will kill the sport because it's just going to result in OSU/Michigan/USC vs Alabama/Georgia/LSU/Texas every season.

I rather liked that four-conference world we were supposedly heading for, with 16 members in each league and their champions as automatic postseas6 qualifiers.

Too bad the networks didn't want to pay for it.

(03-07-2024 05:07 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(03-07-2024 01:04 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  The supposed breakoff isn't going to be the utopia that message boards think it will be. The height of college football and college sports in general was 2005-2014. When there was a lot of parity every conference had someone putting up their fist saying they were the best.

This whole P2 concept is just boring and will kill the sport because it's just going to result in OSU/Michigan/USC vs Alabama/Georgia/LSU/Texas every season.

I rather liked that four-conference world we were supposedly heading for, with 16 members in each league and their champions as automatic postseas6 qualifiers.

Too bad the networks didn't want to pay for it.

Not too late for 4 conferences of 18, though it'll be P2 + M2

I think there will be a huge backlash on a P2 breakaway. The casuals to the same extent as the European Superleague backlash. That's why I hope Big12, ACC, and G5 call the bluff instead of caving.

Fair or not fair, it is a P2 world now.

(03-07-2024 01:04 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(03-07-2024 12:48 AM)C2__ Wrote:  While your point isn't off, it's about market share. The supposed P2 has that in spades, even if not nearly as much as they think.

If they break off, UH won't just lose me as a fan for the most part but any break off not including UH will make me lose interest in college football or all college sports in general if it's bigger than football. I waste enough time on sports and have no problem transitioning more time toward the pro leagues and maybe less on sports in general.

We've already seen people like Wedge and Clarion Panther be alienated and I'd follow. At least we get the best talent in the world for the most part in the pro sports. As evidenced by the spread of talent in the NFL Draft, even from FCS and below, we can't say we get the absolute best all the time in the very top of college football, not even close.

The supposed breakoff isn't going to be the utopia that message boards think it will be. The height of college football and college sports in general was 2005-2014. When there was a lot of parity every conference had someone putting up their fist saying they were the best.

This whole P2 concept is just boring and will kill the sport because it's just going to result in OSU/Michigan/USC vs Alabama/Georgia/LSU/Texas every season.

Ironic that you think that some of USC's best years happen to coincide with the "height of college football", yet when others are winning it will "kill the sport".

I think the breakaway of the SEC/B1G is overblown. Sure, they are gonna want to see how far they can push and get consessions before having their bluff called.

(03-07-2024 01:04 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(03-07-2024 12:48 AM)C2__ Wrote:  While your point isn't off, it's about market share. The supposed P2 has that in spades, even if not nearly as much as they think.

If they break off, UH won't just lose me as a fan for the most part but any break off not including UH will make me lose interest in college football or all college sports in general if it's bigger than football. I waste enough time on sports and have no problem transitioning more time toward the pro leagues and maybe less on sports in general.

We've already seen people like Wedge and Clarion Panther be alienated and I'd follow. At least we get the best talent in the world for the most part in the pro sports. As evidenced by the spread of talent in the NFL Draft, even from FCS and below, we can't say we get the absolute best all the time in the very top of college football, not even close.

The supposed breakoff isn't going to be the utopia that message boards think it will be. The height of college football and college sports in general was 2005-2014. When there was a lot of parity every conference had someone putting up their fist saying they were the best.

This whole P2 concept is just boring and will kill the sport because it's just going to result in OSU/Michigan/USC vs Alabama/Georgia/LSU/Texas every season.

I don’t know many people who see it as a “utopia”. As I’ve stated elsewhere, I believe that there is more talent out there that’s good enough (even if it’s not national title-level talent) to fill more than 34-48 teams and, as long as that’s the case, the market will naturally push back against an arbitrary cutoff of *access*. If a P2 breakaway consists of not playing anyone else in college football (or even worse, basketball and other sports), then that likely backfires. There is too much talent and too many regions of the country that would be cut off from the top level and that would be a “pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered” situation for the P2. If a P2 breakaway is more like the Premier League breakaway from the English soccer system where they have more money and control but there are still games between the Premier League and lower levels (such as the FA Cup), then that’s a little different.

If you look at the proposed CFP revenue distribution system, the Big Ten and SEC would collect 50-60%, the Big 12, ACC and ND would get 30-40%, and the G5 would collectively get 6-10%. That’s a fairly good proxy of the market power of those leagues. Essentially, a P2-only breakway takes 50-60% of the value of the system. That’s by far the largest share and it’s highly concentrated in those two leagues, but it’s definitely leaving a lot of value out. The P4 collectively, though, takes 90-94% of the system. That stands to reason that the P4 separating really would take virtually all of the value in college football (and by extension, all of college sports).

So, from an economic perspective, I still think you need at least the P4 (or a similar number of teams that are in the P4 today regardless of how many conferences are there) to be involved in a breakaway to truly cover the amount of talent available and all of the regions of material value in the country.

That being said, I think a lot of people here underestimate just how much more important and powerful the casual fans are to the TV networks compared to the rabid fans like us. The TV networks (or streamers or whoever ends up showing games in the future) care about the 10 million viewer-plus games and those inherently consist of the vast majority of the people watching not being fans of either team involved at all.

I still think how the English soccer system developed (and arguably the overall European soccer system), where there is a financial and control separation but not necessarily an outright separation of competing against each other, is much more applicable to college sports than how the NFL and other US pro sports leagues work. The amalgamation of different leagues (some of which have specific brands with outsized power and fan bases) with different levels of power in different regions with different interests that are overseen by a weak/ineffective/corrupt central governing authority is something that European soccer and US college sports very much have in common. I don’t think I’m alone as Greg Sankey himself said he read “The Club” about the formation of the Premier League a couple of years ago, which I highly recommend to everyone here.

P2 = (largest media) Payout 2

M2 = might (kick your arse, “p2” so watch your back) 2

I love the Rutgers fan that runs around spouting P2 will do this, P2 will do that. The little Rutgers Napoleon is a true reflection of the P2 fan

(03-07-2024 08:22 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-07-2024 01:04 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(03-07-2024 12:48 AM)C2__ Wrote:  While your point isn't off, it's about market share. The supposed P2 has that in spades, even if not nearly as much as they think.

If they break off, UH won't just lose me as a fan for the most part but any break off not including UH will make me lose interest in college football or all college sports in general if it's bigger than football. I waste enough time on sports and have no problem transitioning more time toward the pro leagues and maybe less on sports in general.

We've already seen people like Wedge and Clarion Panther be alienated and I'd follow. At least we get the best talent in the world for the most part in the pro sports. As evidenced by the spread of talent in the NFL Draft, even from FCS and below, we can't say we get the absolute best all the time in the very top of college football, not even close.

The supposed breakoff isn't going to be the utopia that message boards think it will be. The height of college football and college sports in general was 2005-2014. When there was a lot of parity every conference had someone putting up their fist saying they were the best.

This whole P2 concept is just boring and will kill the sport because it's just going to result in OSU/Michigan/USC vs Alabama/Georgia/LSU/Texas every season.

I don’t know many people who see it as a “utopia”. As I’ve stated elsewhere, I believe that there is more talent out there that’s good enough (even if it’s not national title-level talent) to fill more than 34-48 teams and, as long as that’s the case, the market will naturally push back against an arbitrary cutoff of *access*. If a P2 breakaway consists of not playing anyone else in college football (or even worse, basketball and other sports), then that likely backfires. There is too much talent and too many regions of the country that would be cut off from the top level and that would be a “pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered” situation for the P2. If a P2 breakaway is more like the Premier League breakaway from the English soccer system where they have more money and control but there are still games between the Premier League and lower levels (such as the FA Cup), then that’s a little different.

If you look at the proposed CFP revenue distribution system, the Big Ten and SEC would collect 50-60%, the Big 12, ACC and ND would get 30-40%, and the G5 would collectively get 6-10%. That’s a fairly good proxy of the market power of those leagues. Essentially, a P2-only breakway takes 50-60% of the value of the system. That’s by far the largest share and it’s highly concentrated in those two leagues, but it’s definitely leaving a lot of value out. The P4 collectively, though, takes 90-94% of the system. That stands to reason that the P4 separating really would take virtually all of the value in college football (and by extension, all of college sports).

So, from an economic perspective, I still think you need at least the P4 (or a similar number of teams that are in the P4 today regardless of how many conferences are there) to be involved in a breakaway to truly cover the amount of talent available and all of the regions of material value in the country.

That being said, I think a lot of people here underestimate just how much more important and powerful the casual fans are to the TV networks compared to the rabid fans like us. The TV networks (or streamers or whoever ends up showing games in the future) care about the 10 million viewer-plus games and those inherently consist of the vast majority of the people watching not being fans of either team involved at all.

I still think how the English soccer system developed (and arguably the overall European soccer system), where there is a financial and control separation but not necessarily an outright separation of competing against each other, is much more applicable to college sports than how the NFL and other US pro sports leagues work. The amalgamation of different leagues (some of which have specific brands with outsized power and fan bases) with different levels of power in different regions with different interests that are overseen by a weak/ineffective/corrupt central governing authority is something that European soccer and US college sports very much have in common. I don’t think I’m alone as Greg Sankey himself said he read “The Club” about the formation of the Premier League a couple of years ago, which I highly recommend to everyone here.

If ETSU, an FCS football school, never plays a FBS level school again, it really wouldn't bother me that much, though I wouldn't mind the occasional rivals matchup with Appalachian State now and again. Or playing Vanderbilt occasionally to go 1-0 in SEC play again. As as FCS level school, East Tennessee State just has different priorities then FBS schools, be it those in power conferences, or even the G5 conferences.

Now if a split happens that involves other sports, especially basketball, personally I'd consider that justification to finally pull the trigger and cancel my cable. March Madness attracts a lot more casual fans then football does, or it seems like it at times when everyone at work has brackets filled out, not something that really happens in football.

The power schools still have an edge in basketball, but it's much easier for smaller schools to find 5 decent players for the basketball court then 12 players for the gridiron. There's also a lot of schools that have decent basketball teams that have no football of any kind

If the media, collectively, adopt the use of "P2" and "M2," it could be odd to read/hear Clemson and Florida State football referred to as "M2 programs."

Those two programs are power-level in every respect. But with a P2 and M2 structure (if that descriptor takes hold) FSU and Clemson football might be unfairly characterized as "not fully power" (much like we see with some basketball programs that are not part of the P4/Big East and are, as such, referred to as "mid-major").

The P2 and M2 hierarchy could yield the latest example of how some folks characterize the quality of a football and/or basketball program based strongly (or solely) on its league affiliation and not its individual strengths.

(03-07-2024 08:22 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(03-07-2024 01:04 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(03-07-2024 12:48 AM)C2__ Wrote:  While your point isn't off, it's about market share. The supposed P2 has that in spades, even if not nearly as much as they think.

If they break off, UH won't just lose me as a fan for the most part but any break off not including UH will make me lose interest in college football or all college sports in general if it's bigger than football. I waste enough time on sports and have no problem transitioning more time toward the pro leagues and maybe less on sports in general.

We've already seen people like Wedge and Clarion Panther be alienated and I'd follow. At least we get the best talent in the world for the most part in the pro sports. As evidenced by the spread of talent in the NFL Draft, even from FCS and below, we can't say we get the absolute best all the time in the very top of college football, not even close.

The supposed breakoff isn't going to be the utopia that message boards think it will be. The height of college football and college sports in general was 2005-2014. When there was a lot of parity every conference had someone putting up their fist saying they were the best.

This whole P2 concept is just boring and will kill the sport because it's just going to result in OSU/Michigan/USC vs Alabama/Georgia/LSU/Texas every season.

I don’t know many people who see it as a “utopia”. As I’ve stated elsewhere, I believe that there is more talent out there that’s good enough (even if it’s not national title-level talent) to fill more than 34-48 teams and, as long as that’s the case, the market will naturally push back against an arbitrary cutoff of *access*. If a P2 breakaway consists of not playing anyone else in college football (or even worse, basketball and other sports), then that likely backfires. There is too much talent and too many regions of the country that would be cut off from the top level and that would be a “pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered” situation for the P2. If a P2 breakaway is more like the Premier League breakaway from the English soccer system where they have more money and control but there are still games between the Premier League and lower levels (such as the FA Cup), then that’s a little different.

If you look at the proposed CFP revenue distribution system, the Big Ten and SEC would collect 50-60%, the Big 12, ACC and ND would get 30-40%, and the G5 would collectively get 6-10%. That’s a fairly good proxy of the market power of those leagues. Essentially, a P2-only breakway takes 50-60% of the value of the system. That’s by far the largest share and it’s highly concentrated in those two leagues, but it’s definitely leaving a lot of value out. The P4 collectively, though, takes 90-94% of the system. That stands to reason that the P4 separating really would take virtually all of the value in college football (and by extension, all of college sports).

So, from an economic perspective, I still think you need at least the P4 (or a similar number of teams that are in the P4 today regardless of how many conferences are there) to be involved in a breakaway to truly cover the amount of talent available and all of the regions of material value in the country.

That being said, I think a lot of people here underestimate just how much more important and powerful the casual fans are to the TV networks compared to the rabid fans like us. The TV networks (or streamers or whoever ends up showing games in the future) care about the 10 million viewer-plus games and those inherently consist of the vast majority of the people watching not being fans of either team involved at all.

I still think how the English soccer system developed (and arguably the overall European soccer system), where there is a financial and control separation but not necessarily an outright separation of competing against each other, is much more applicable to college sports than how the NFL and other US pro sports leagues work. The amalgamation of different leagues (some of which have specific brands with outsized power and fan bases) with different levels of power in different regions with different interests that are overseen by a weak/ineffective/corrupt central governing authority is something that European soccer and US college sports very much have in common. I don’t think I’m alone as Greg Sankey himself said he read “The Club” about the formation of the Premier League a couple of years ago, which I highly recommend to everyone here.

I have to commend you because you laid it out pretty clear with regards to the percentages for football. However, a breakaway, whether it be P2 or P4 in the basketball sense will take away much more value than the football percentages. The mid majors and lower contribute a lot more to the NCAA tournament than a lot of people think or would like to admit. That George Mason run had huge ratings...... only because of the Cinderella aspect of it all. That is all gone with a breakaway, and without that chance, the ratings will still be good, but definitely not as great as it could be....... by a bigger margin than those would like to admit.

So the P2 or P4 better be careful.........

(03-07-2024 01:04 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(03-07-2024 12:48 AM)C2__ Wrote:  While your point isn't off, it's about market share. The supposed P2 has that in spades, even if not nearly as much as they think.

If they break off, UH won't just lose me as a fan for the most part but any break off not including UH will make me lose interest in college football or all college sports in general if it's bigger than football. I waste enough time on sports and have no problem transitioning more time toward the pro leagues and maybe less on sports in general.

We've already seen people like Wedge and Clarion Panther be alienated and I'd follow. At least we get the best talent in the world for the most part in the pro sports. As evidenced by the spread of talent in the NFL Draft, even from FCS and below, we can't say we get the absolute best all the time in the very top of college football, not even close.

The supposed breakoff isn't going to be the utopia that message boards think it will be. The height of college football and college sports in general was 2005-2014. When there was a lot of parity every conference had someone putting up their fist saying they were the best.

This whole P2 concept is just boring and will kill the sport because it's just going to result in OSU/Michigan/USC vs Alabama/Georgia/LSU/Texas every season.

Totally agree. There were six regional power conferences with no more than 12 teams each. Plus, the Mountain West was very strong. That was the height of college sports.

(03-07-2024 01:04 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(03-07-2024 12:48 AM)C2__ Wrote:  While your point isn't off, it's about market share. The supposed P2 has that in spades, even if not nearly as much as they think.

If they break off, UH won't just lose me as a fan for the most part but any break off not including UH will make me lose interest in college football or all college sports in general if it's bigger than football. I waste enough time on sports and have no problem transitioning more time toward the pro leagues and maybe less on sports in general.

We've already seen people like Wedge and Clarion Panther be alienated and I'd follow. At least we get the best talent in the world for the most part in the pro sports. As evidenced by the spread of talent in the NFL Draft, even from FCS and below, we can't say we get the absolute best all the time in the very top of college football, not even close.

The supposed breakoff isn't going to be the utopia that message boards think it will be. The height of college football and college sports in general was 2005-2014. When there was a lot of parity every conference had someone putting up their fist saying they were the best.

This whole P2 concept is just boring and will kill the sport because it's just going to result in OSU/Michigan/USC vs Alabama/Georgia/LSU/Texas every season.

Isn't that better than Ohio St./Alabama/Clemson/Oklahoma every season as in the CFP?!

(03-07-2024 09:08 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If the media, collectively, adopt the use of "P2" and "M2," it could be odd to read/hear Clemson and Florida State football referred to as "M2 programs."

Those two programs are power-level in every respect. But with a P2 and M2 structure (if that descriptor takes hold) FSU and Clemson football might be unfairly characterized as "not fully power" (much like we see with some basketball programs that are not part of the P4/Big East and are, as such, referred to as "mid-major").

The P2 and M2 hierarchy could yield the latest example of how some folks characterize the quality of a football and/or basketball program based strongly (or solely) on its league affiliation and not its individual strengths.

That was as much a reason for OUT to the SEC as anything else.

(03-07-2024 12:39 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  I think sometimes we forget that power conferences aren't just about football. And when it comes to football we love to pretend like "P2" means every team in the Big 10 or SEC is somehow a competitive juggernaut when in reality it's just Alabama, Ohio State, Michigan, Texas, and Georgia and a handful of other programs.

But back to the point just take a look at the college basketball rankings right now. The Big 12 has five teams in the top 12 including #1 and may even be a 6 bid conference this season. Along with a huge pickup of Arizona who is consistently a top tier program.

And with CFB in 2021 Baylor was 12-2 and ranked #4 and in 2022 TCU was 13-2 and ranked #2 with a championship appearance. And Texas still being a Big 12 team was ranked #3.

With the playoff expanding top talent isn't going to choose to sit on the bench and Vanderbilt and Ole Miss over UCF/Houston/Cincinnati long-term where they actually can get playing time and compete in the playoff. Especially when the transfer portal can effectively change an entire team in 1-2 seasons.

I may be wrong, but I think most understand that "P2" is a designation that reflect the money and influence of the B1G and SEC. It doesn't necessarily mean they are strongest in all sports or even most of them, including football (well, I think just about everyone thinks the SEC is strongest in football, but other than that). Also, I think most know it is a conference designation, it doesn't necessarily imply that all schools in those conferences are better or, even good. Nobody IMO thinks Vanderbilt has a stronger hoops program than Kansas, even though Vandy is a P2 school and Kansas is an M2 school, or that Northwestern has a stronger football program than Clemson.

And I think on that basis, "P2" is accurate - the SEC and B1G are IMO far above the others, even the M2, in terms of money and influence.

(03-07-2024 09:15 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  

(03-07-2024 01:04 AM)TrojanCampaign Wrote:  

(03-07-2024 12:48 AM)C2__ Wrote:  While your point isn't off, it's about market share. The supposed P2 has that in spades, even if not nearly as much as they think.

If they break off, UH won't just lose me as a fan for the most part but any break off not including UH will make me lose interest in college football or all college sports in general if it's bigger than football. I waste enough time on sports and have no problem transitioning more time toward the pro leagues and maybe less on sports in general.

We've already seen people like Wedge and Clarion Panther be alienated and I'd follow. At least we get the best talent in the world for the most part in the pro sports. As evidenced by the spread of talent in the NFL Draft, even from FCS and below, we can't say we get the absolute best all the time in the very top of college football, not even close.

The supposed breakoff isn't going to be the utopia that message boards think it will be. The height of college football and college sports in general was 2005-2014. When there was a lot of parity every conference had someone putting up their fist saying they were the best.

This whole P2 concept is just boring and will kill the sport because it's just going to result in OSU/Michigan/USC vs Alabama/Georgia/LSU/Texas every season.

Totally agree. There were six regional power conferences with no more than 12 teams each. Plus, the Mountain West was very strong. That was the height of college sports.

You didn't have these huge monstrosities crossing the country and you played most teams every year, but still had some variety.