According to Dellinger, SEC schools can expect as much as $23m per school and B1G schools as much as $21m each in the next contract if the currently floated proposals pass.

https://sports.yahoo.com/with-college-fo...19343.html

23 x 16 = $368m
21 x 18 = $378m

total amount?

368+378 = 746m

At the end of the day, what matters to us is what WE get, so we would need to run an 8 team playoff of our own, with 4 QF schools per Conference, and get ESPN or someone else to pay $746m for 7 games. However, we each already get a hefty payment (presumably) for our CCG, which we must forgo, or include in the necessary value for the "P2 CFP" games. What is the CCG worth? $50-80m each? Let's call it $65m each, so that's:

65 x 2 = 130m
746m + 130m = $876m for 7 game P2 playoff

What do we do in years in which TCU, Clemson, FSU, Miami, Colorado, Ok St, etc etc etc have a legitimate claim to the National Title and one or more of them garners the lion's share of AP/Coaches Poll votes? How does the network partner(s) factor that risk into their bid?

My conclusion is that $876m for an 8, perhaps 10 team P2-only playoff is possible but unlikely, and it could be challenged by an "everyone else" playoff led by the ACC and Big 12 that includes the entire g5. In many years, we'd end up with a split national title, a bunch of pissed off fans of lots of schools (including P2 schools), and less revenue for everyone. However, the P2 might get, say, 2/3 of that $876m necessary for parity in our own 8-10 team playoff, while the "everyone else playoff" might get half as much as the P2 playoff gets. So, a version of status quo ante, but most schools come out worse off than they would have been if we'd all just been able to work something out for the 26-31 time period.

I bring all this up to point out that an eventual CFP deal for everyone is highly likely this time, and this should stay nearly the same until 2031 with some revenue adjustments in favor of the P2, but the genie is out of the bottle, and everyone is going to be positioning themselves for the next deal in 2032 starting now (or really starting the minute that OUT made their move almost 3 years ago).

Unfortunately for the M2, the P2 are already planning what's next, and if current discussions are any indication, a number closer to 40 or 50 seems more likely than the bigger tent of 60-80 that has also been a possibility. Does it happen in 2024, 2032, 2040, or later on? I have no idea. But I'm more certain than ever that's it's coming eventually.

In the next iteration, the football blue bloods will group together and split the CFP differently...

P2 Football Blue Blood Brand (Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, etc.) = $100M each.
P2 Other (Indiana, Rutgers, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas, etc.) = whatever they can get

(03-08-2024 05:03 PM)Wahoowa84 Wrote:  In the next iteration, the football blue bloods will group together and split the CFP differently...

P2 Football Blue Blood Brand (Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, etc.) = $100M each.
P2 Other (Indiana, Rutgers, Northwestern, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas, etc.) = whatever they can get

As for me, they can do this yesterday.