(03-12-2024 07:17 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 03:42 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s starting to look like Clemson may join Florida St in the ACCape.

Let’s say for the moment that those are the only two that move (my Big 10 worst case scenario). This puts the ACC at 15+ND with one more pro rata add.

USF is the odds on favorite for that spot, which brings me to my question: who would the AAC backfill with if they only lose USF?

Is it FIU by default just to keep the FL quota filled?

Is the SBC off limits?

Do they make another run at AFA?

I think if the ACC only loses Clemson and FSU, they either add from the Big 12 or stand pat and try again on the Big 12 in 2031. If they still strike out in 2031 then...maybe? But probably not.

Here's my reasoning: the ACC was extremely reluctant to add anybody they considered lesser (basically everyone outside of the P2 and the Pac), and they were even reluctant to add Pac schools due to travel considerations. If we look at reasonable non-Big 12 schools for the ACC, I come up with 3:

USF
Memphis
UConn

Memphis we can cross off b/c of their Academics. UConn we can cross off b/c they're great where the ACC is already great and bring nothing in the area the ACC really needs help, football. I cross off USF b/c they're a project and bring nothing to either football or basketball, in fact they're a significant negative in both of those, and they're not needed for ACCN purposes b/c in this scenario Miami is still in the fold.

I'd add Tulane to that list probably and the ACC might bend for Memphis, they did for Louisville. Is Memphis academics that much worse? IDK.

But.....

A lot depends if the ACC and Stanford/Cal are committed or if it's a temporary marriage of convenience. Obviously if the CA get a nod from the BIG10 they'll go but it seems they probably won't move for anything less. So that would open up the West Coast and MWC schools along with OSU/WSU.

I do think USF is the obvious replacement for FSU so going back to the original question...I think the AAC takes their time as they have in the past. Their options are dwindling. ODU wouldn't be interested in going alone and I doubt even with MU, App & JMU. I think the SBE schools would be open to a merge and split with the AAC if they ended up losing USF, Tulane and Memphis. Don't know how the western teams would feel about that or what would happen to the academies & WSU.

(03-12-2024 09:44 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 07:20 PM)Bull Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 06:25 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If the AAC loses USF to the AAC, I would strongly want Memphis to find some way to join the Mountain West (with Tulane and maybe a few other AAC members).

The AAC has lost so much (UConn, UCF, Houston, Cincinnati and, next year, SMU) At what point (and losing USF might be the breaking point — if we already aren't there) does staying in the AAC do Memphis little good? I do like the addition of Army for football, however. And if the league replaced USF with AppState ... that would be a strong switch in football. But again, and as I just posted, I doubt App would be interested.

Seems complicated to me...

On the one hand, you are right that the AAC is essentially having its guts ripped out over time... Thats what happens when you are the 'top' G5... The P5 keep picking up the programs.

On the other hand, everyone derided the AAC when it was formed. Called it a 'dumpster fire' all over these boards. Look how amazing the AAC performed over a decade. Great record versus P5, great access bowl record, and great TV dollars well above anyone else in the G5.

Could that magic happen again if the AAC gets a bit reconstituted? I think so... The AAC has (at least) 3 clear advantages. 1. Playing east, where the people are... I wouldn't want long travel westward to play late night games in smaller front range towns. 2. It's a big city, market oriented conference. Again, play where the people are and easier travel. 3. Those TV dollars... even if renegotiated, likely to stay tops in the G5.

Bottom line, for me, I wouldn't pull the trigger and run west without trying out the reincarnation of the AAC for awhile.

If USF departs the AAC, that might be the "we've had enough of this league" moment for Memphis. At that point, the university might start considering a long-term view that could involve being part of a "best of the rest" league that could exist in a few years and likely be comprised primarily of MWC members.

But I do see your point.

The best of the rest are mostly in the AAC.

The other conferences just don't have TV draws significantly better than the bottom part of the AAC with the exception of Boise St. Look at the Sic-em analysis. Rice didn't have enough games to qualify in his rankings, but what they did have beat anyone in the MWC but Boise.

There isn't enough money to justify a coast to coast league at the G level anyway. It all gets eaten up in travel expenses.

(03-12-2024 11:00 PM)Garden_KC Wrote:  AAC's primary attraction is it has a decent TV deal, particularly much better than what CUSA has right now.

If they lose 4+ teams that AAC TV deal is history and the conference likely splits up.

Where exactly are they "splitting" to? If they were to lose 4-6 more teams they still have 8-10 members left and another likely 60-80 million or more in exit fees paid out on top of the exit fees still due from the former departing members. Unless you believe the rest of the AAC at that point would agree to dissolve the league and split the assets what would the remaining members gain from paying the exit fee and going to I guess the Sun-Belt at that point? C-USA didn't die getting down to 4 and having a minimal exit fee war chest and tournament credits to save, why would the AAC die instead?

The ACC pre-backfilled 3 spots already with Cal, Stanford and SMU, bringing them to 18, 17 in football. Contractually they need only 15. The same questions would be asked of any incoming school, be it South Florida, Memphis, UConn or Tulane, as was asked of Cal, Stanford and SMU: how do you improve us, the current members of the ACC? In the case of these three the answer was a combination of academics (e.g., VT really wants to be with Stanford and Cal to help them in their push for AAU membership) and extra ESPN money, via the pro rata clause, by coming in at essentially half shares for Cal and Stanford, and by SMU taking zero for the next half dozen years.

Mind you this question is relative to the ACC membership. The four schools I mentioned are on the ACC radar in the first place because they are higher value than other G5 schools in the eastern half. They have good value, but is it worth enough for the ACC? Certainly any school coming in would have to agree to a reduced revenue, at least as low as Cal and Stanford, which probably any of them would take even running to 2036. Also the ACC has to figure adding a school is worth more than losing a marquis matchup on their schedule to make room for that school. And further they have to believe the school fits academically, even enhancing the ACC reputation, as well as having the deep pocket resources to compete at the P4 level.

And finally does the ACC actually even need to add a school? They have 18 and losing Florida State alone, or even with a Clemson going along, the best move might simply be to stand at 16 or 17, with more frequent rivalry games amongst the remaining schools. The contract stipulates 15, which gives them some room. Now if the losses go deeper, say Notre Dame and Miami also move, or North Carolina, then the math changes. In that scenario of 3 or more losses, the short list is probably:

1. South Florida
2. Connecticut (if they can live with UConn's football situation)
3. Memphis (if they can live with the open admissions standards)
4. Tulane

Tulane can shoot up the list (Tulsa maybe also) if they show a gangster willingness like SMU to fund everything on their own.

ECU is further down, only in consideration if North Carolina exits and the ACC decides defending that $15m matters compared to the exit fees paid already and the lower value of ECU.

That is pretty much how I see it.

(03-12-2024 06:20 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 03:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Other than if AFA had a desire to join football only with the other academies, AFA doesn't make sense for AFA or the AAC. And it is looking like the MWC >>> AAC at this time.

FIU - only thing going for it is geography.

Lets make Bill Dazzle happy and MTSU to the AAC

Uncle Dazzy would like to see MTSU in the AAC overall, dbackjon. However, and as I've posted previously, I would be concerned such a move might hurt Memphis.

But if the AAC calls, Middle Tennessee would have to go.

I don't see MTSU in the AAC hurting Memphis. Memphis's support is limited to the state of West Tennessee (as seen in the state flag that notes the three divisions of Tennessee), mainly the SW corner.

Didn't see much/any support for Memphis in Northeast or further east, and only Memphis fans encountered in Nashville were alums, which wouldn't change.

(03-13-2024 12:57 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The ACC pre-backfilled 3 spots already with Cal, Stanford and SMU, bringing them to 18, 17 in football. Contractually they need only 15. The same questions would be asked of any incoming school, be it South Florida, Memphis, UConn or Tulane, as was asked of Cal, Stanford and SMU: how do you improve us, the current members of the ACC? In the case of these three the answer was a combination of academics (e.g., VT really wants to be with Stanford and Cal to help them in their push for AAU membership) and extra ESPN money, via the pro rata clause, by coming in at essentially half shares for Cal and Stanford, and by SMU taking zero for the next half dozen years.

Mind you this question is relative to the ACC membership. The four schools I mentioned are on the ACC radar in the first place because they are higher value than other G5 schools in the eastern half. They have good value, but is it worth enough for the ACC? Certainly any school coming in would have to agree to a reduced revenue, at least as low as Cal and Stanford, which probably any of them would take even running to 2036. Also the ACC has to figure adding a school is worth more than losing a marquis matchup on their schedule to make room for that school. And further they have to believe the school fits academically, even enhancing the ACC reputation, as well as having the deep pocket resources to compete at the P4 level.

And finally does the ACC actually even need to add a school? They have 18 and losing Florida State alone, or even with a Clemson going along, the best move might simply be to stand at 16 or 17, with more frequent rivalry games amongst the remaining schools. The contract stipulates 15, which gives them some room. Now if the losses go deeper, say Notre Dame and Miami also move, or North Carolina, then the math changes. In that scenario of 3 or more losses, the short list is probably:

1. South Florida
2. Connecticut (if they can live with UConn's football situation)
3. Memphis (if they can live with the open admissions standards)
4. Tulane

Tulane can shoot up the list (Tulsa maybe also) if they show a gangster willingness like SMU to fund everything on their own.

ECU is further down, only in consideration if North Carolina exits and the ACC decides defending that $15m matters compared to the exit fees paid already and the lower value of ECU.

That is pretty much how I see it.

That clause stipulated 4 NC "charter members", so the four that are already there. Bringing in ECU wouldn't stop that. Not that 15M is going to sway the ACC's membership decision anyway.

(03-13-2024 12:20 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 11:00 PM)Garden_KC Wrote:  AAC's primary attraction is it has a decent TV deal, particularly much better than what CUSA has right now.

If they lose 4+ teams that AAC TV deal is history and the conference likely splits up.

Where exactly are they "splitting" to? If they were to lose 4-6 more teams they still have 8-10 members left and another likely 60-80 million or more in exit fees paid out on top of the exit fees still due from the former departing members. Unless you believe the rest of the AAC at that point would agree to dissolve the league and split the assets what would the remaining members gain from paying the exit fee and going to I guess the Sun-Belt at that point? C-USA didn't die getting down to 4 and having a minimal exit fee war chest and tournament credits to save, why would the AAC die instead?

Why wouldnt the AAC members bring up some members from the SBC, CUSA or MAC?

mturn017,

I think I said ECU is very conditional, and even then unlikely. I mean if exiting UNC is paying $300M or more, who cares about $15M? That's not enough to sway votes in the ACC. Heck Stanford and Cal are giving up that much annually and SMU twice that. It's really small change.

**************************

Anyway, I forgot the main topic of the post, which is AAC backfill. In a scenario where one or two AAC schools, say South Florida and/or Memphis or Tulane joins the ACC, the same questions apply. If they lose an even two, they might just stand at 12. In the last round schools were brought on at 50% distributions, as they were deemed half the value of the exiting schools (not so Army who are full football share). Is there anyone out there of the same value of the "halflings" UTSA, North Texas, Rice, UAB, FAU and Charlotte in the eyes of ESPN and the AAC? I think they grabbed everyone the wanted and then some. Are MTSU and ULL equal to losing a Memphis or Tulane? It's pretty sketchy.

They might look west at Colorado State and Air Force again. But the same problems exist for pulling them away. They likely need the MWC to destabilize. Honestly that is probably the best play, wait for the MWC to weaken and go back at their members.

(03-13-2024 10:26 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 09:44 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 07:20 PM)Bull Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 06:25 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If the AAC loses USF to the AAC, I would strongly want Memphis to find some way to join the Mountain West (with Tulane and maybe a few other AAC members).

The AAC has lost so much (UConn, UCF, Houston, Cincinnati and, next year, SMU) At what point (and losing USF might be the breaking point — if we already aren't there) does staying in the AAC do Memphis little good? I do like the addition of Army for football, however. And if the league replaced USF with AppState ... that would be a strong switch in football. But again, and as I just posted, I doubt App would be interested.

Seems complicated to me...

On the one hand, you are right that the AAC is essentially having its guts ripped out over time... Thats what happens when you are the 'top' G5... The P5 keep picking up the programs.

On the other hand, everyone derided the AAC when it was formed. Called it a 'dumpster fire' all over these boards. Look how amazing the AAC performed over a decade. Great record versus P5, great access bowl record, and great TV dollars well above anyone else in the G5.

Could that magic happen again if the AAC gets a bit reconstituted? I think so... The AAC has (at least) 3 clear advantages. 1. Playing east, where the people are... I wouldn't want long travel westward to play late night games in smaller front range towns. 2. It's a big city, market oriented conference. Again, play where the people are and easier travel. 3. Those TV dollars... even if renegotiated, likely to stay tops in the G5.

Bottom line, for me, I wouldn't pull the trigger and run west without trying out the reincarnation of the AAC for awhile.

If USF departs the AAC, that might be the "we've had enough of this league" moment for Memphis. At that point, the university might start considering a long-term view that could involve being part of a "best of the rest" league that could exist in a few years and likely be comprised primarily of MWC members.

But I do see your point.

The best of the rest are mostly in the AAC.

The other conferences just don't have TV draws significantly better than the bottom part of the AAC with the exception of Boise St. Look at the Sic-em analysis. Rice didn't have enough games to qualify in his rankings, but what they did have beat anyone in the MWC but Boise.

There isn't enough money to justify a coast to coast league at the G level anyway. It all gets eaten up in travel expenses.

You might be correct, bullet.

But the MWC is going to have lots of "big state schools" in Oregon State, Washington State, Utah State, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado State and Wyoming. That simply seems more sexy.

(03-13-2024 01:06 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 06:20 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 03:53 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  Other than if AFA had a desire to join football only with the other academies, AFA doesn't make sense for AFA or the AAC. And it is looking like the MWC >>> AAC at this time.

FIU - only thing going for it is geography.

Lets make Bill Dazzle happy and MTSU to the AAC

Uncle Dazzy would like to see MTSU in the AAC overall, dbackjon. However, and as I've posted previously, I would be concerned such a move might hurt Memphis.

But if the AAC calls, Middle Tennessee would have to go.

I don't see MTSU in the AAC hurting Memphis. Memphis's support is limited to the state of West Tennessee (as seen in the state flag that notes the three divisions of Tennessee), mainly the SW corner.

Didn't see much/any support for Memphis in Northeast or further east, and only Memphis fans encountered in Nashville were alums, which wouldn't change.

Lots of Black Nashvillians (particularly those who have lived here in Nashville for a long time) have at least a casual interest in Memphis Tiger basketball (in part, because many of they have City of Memphis ties). Much more so than they do in MTSU basketball. Having taught part-time at HBCU Tennessee State University from 1993 to 2000, I picked up on that dynamic quickly.

Memphis often competes with MTSU for football recruits. And to "elevate" MTSU (in terms of conference hierarchy) could be detrimental to Memphis (though helpful to MTSU, of course).

I wrestle with the "Memphis vs. MTSU" theme, as I want both schools to do well. My parents met at what was then Memphis State College in the mid-1950s, with my father having worked as the head trainer for Memphis football and basketball. He bleeds Tiger blue and got me cheering for the program as a kid in the late 1960s. But my sister and I are MTSU grads, with my brother and I having taught part-time at the university years ago. I root for the Blue Raiders, too.

I could easily see the AAC STAYING at 12. The dwindling CFP amount would be split less ways along with the media deal.

Who could they realistically get to equal the VALUE of a USF or Memphis?? Nobody IMO.

(03-12-2024 03:42 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s starting to look like Clemson may join Florida St in the ACCape.

Let’s say for the moment that those are the only two that move (my Big 10 worst case scenario). This puts the ACC at 15+ND with one more pro rata add.

USF is the odds on favorite for that spot, which brings me to my question: who would the AAC backfill with if they only lose USF?

Is it FIU by default just to keep the FL quota filled?

Is the SBC off limits?

Do they make another run at AFA?

Absolutely not FIU. Can't even find a fan of their online.

FIU is a joke and FAU already covers that "market".

(03-13-2024 05:42 PM)TOPSTRAIGHT Wrote:  FIU is a joke and FAU already covers that "market".

Then why did the Sun Belt and Conference USA need both?

(03-13-2024 08:14 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(03-13-2024 07:39 AM)otown Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 07:20 PM)Bull Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 06:25 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If the AAC loses USF to the AAC, I would strongly want Memphis to find some way to join the Mountain West (with Tulane and maybe a few other AAC members).

The AAC has lost so much (UConn, UCF, Houston, Cincinnati and, next year, SMU) At what point (and losing USF might be the breaking point — if we already aren't there) does staying in the AAC do Memphis little good? I do like the addition of Army for football, however. And if the league replaced USF with AppState ... that would be a strong switch in football. But again, and as I just posted, I doubt App would be interested.

Seems complicated to me...

On the one hand, you are right that the AAC is essentially having its guts ripped out over time... Thats what happens when you are the 'top' G5... The P5 keep picking up the programs.

On the other hand, everyone derided the AAC when it was formed. Called it a 'dumpster fire' all over these boards. Look how amazing the AAC performed over a decade. Great record versus P5, great access bowl record, and great TV dollars well above anyone else in the G5.

Could that magic happen again if the AAC gets a bit reconstituted? I think so... The AAC has (at least) 3 clear advantages. 1. Playing east, where the people are... I wouldn't want long travel westward to play late night games in smaller front range towns. 2. It's a big city, market oriented conference. Again, play where the people are and easier travel. 3. Those TV dollars... even if renegotiated, likely to stay tops in the G5.

Bottom line, for me, I wouldn't pull the trigger and run west without trying out the reincarnation of the AAC for awhile.

In the scenario USF is gone......... who is left? ECU, Navy, Tulane, Tulsa, Temple, and Memphis along with the CUSA teams?

This isn't the AAC from 10 years ago. The teams back then has pedigree and name recognition with fan bases. I will go out on a limb and say Memphis and Tulane beg the MWC to take them.

At this point it is the CUSA and I doubt SBC teams jump.

That could happen.

For less money and worse travel? Sorry, but I don't see that happening.

(03-13-2024 09:22 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 07:17 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 03:42 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s starting to look like Clemson may join Florida St in the ACCape.

Let’s say for the moment that those are the only two that move (my Big 10 worst case scenario). This puts the ACC at 15+ND with one more pro rata add.

USF is the odds on favorite for that spot, which brings me to my question: who would the AAC backfill with if they only lose USF?

Is it FIU by default just to keep the FL quota filled?

Is the SBC off limits?

Do they make another run at AFA?

I think if the ACC only loses Clemson and FSU, they either add from the Big 12 or stand pat and try again on the Big 12 in 2031. If they still strike out in 2031 then...maybe? But probably not.

Here's my reasoning: the ACC was extremely reluctant to add anybody they considered lesser (basically everyone outside of the P2 and the Pac), and they were even reluctant to add Pac schools due to travel considerations. If we look at reasonable non-Big 12 schools for the ACC, I come up with 3:

USF
Memphis
UConn

Memphis we can cross off b/c of their Academics. UConn we can cross off b/c they're great where the ACC is already great and bring nothing in the area the ACC really needs help, football. I cross off USF b/c they're a project and bring nothing to either football or basketball, in fact they're a significant negative in both of those, and they're not needed for ACCN purposes b/c in this scenario Miami is still in the fold.

I'd add Tulane to that list probably and the ACC might bend for Memphis, they did for Louisville. Is Memphis academics that much worse? IDK.

But.....

A lot depends if the ACC and Stanford/Cal are committed or if it's a temporary marriage of convenience. Obviously if the CA get a nod from the BIG10 they'll go but it seems they probably won't move for anything less. So that would open up the West Coast and MWC schools along with OSU/WSU.

I do think USF is the obvious replacement for FSU so going back to the original question...I think the AAC takes their time as they have in the past. Their options are dwindling. ODU wouldn't be interested in going alone and I doubt even with MU, App & JMU. I think the SBE schools would be open to a merge and split with the AAC if they ended up losing USF, Tulane and Memphis. Don't know how the western teams would feel about that or what would happen to the academies & WSU.

Is this all you guys ever think about? This kind of talk is what destabilized C-USA, and led to it being torn apart.

Under Aresco, ODU wasn't going to get a second look. Maybe the new commissioner will, but the Texas programs still have fresh memories of ODU divisive actions and commentary. No way the Texas programs would support an ODU invitation. I doubt any program in the Sun Belt would get consideration. Under our current configurations, the AAC and Belt are too different in membership, goals, and philosophy, to be interchangeable.

As for the topic. The AAC doesn't need to add anyone. 13 would be fine. But, when SMU bought their way into the AAC, just to escape conferencing with North Texas, the AAC actually landed Army, which at this moment is a better and more valuable brand than SMU. Of course, everyone outside of the AAC board thought Army stay independent.

The realignment pickings are slim for conferences outside of the P2, which in my opinion is a good thing. The AAC has the membership, markets, media deal, and revenue, to grow into something special again. we just need time and stability. NIL and the Portal is expediting the growth of the AAC. As the AAC enjoys increasing success on the field and courts, these discussions about the need for future additions will fade.

ACC has lots of AAC (and even Sun Belt? or MAC?) options to choose from. Tulane, USF, Temple, Memphis, UConn, Rice, UTSA, Georgia St, Buffalo, and as mentioned previously they could take the top dogs from the Big East as basketball-only additions as well. It really depends on who leaves.

(03-12-2024 03:42 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s starting to look like Clemson may join Florida St in the ACCape.

Let’s say for the moment that those are the only two that move (my Big 10 worst case scenario). This puts the ACC at 15+ND with one more pro rata add.

USF is the odds on favorite for that spot, which brings me to my question: who would the AAC backfill with if they only lose USF?

Is it FIU by default just to keep the FL quota filled?

Is the SBC off limits?

Do they make another run at AFA?

By looking at the metrics used on the new ACC mbrs for 2024 (Stanford / Cal / & SMU) we can see what other teams meet these same metrics from XII & G5.

METRICS
1. 3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: That is the average of the three main academic ranks (USN, SR, & THE/WSJ) between only the standardized universe of FBS schools + AAU members, then ranked among the averages. This 3-way average, among a standardized universe, is as good a broad, fair perspective as can be shown.
2. Financial Data: Sports data comes from Knight and EADA filings, all of which are directly from the school. Campus financial data is from IPEDS.
3. FB AP Times Ranked
4. 2023 DC Points (All Sports)
5. TV Market: That is available from 2023–2024 Nielsen rankings (new or not new State for ACC Network)

2024 ACC Adds

Stanford:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #3 (AAU & R1)
Research Spending: $1.2B
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $157M FB: $32 M MBB: $7M Olympic: $46M
FB AP Times Ranked: 303
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 1412
TV Market: San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose (#10)

Cal:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #16 (AAU & R1)
Research Spending: $2.6B
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $114M FB: $34M MBB: $8M Olympic: $29M
FB AP Times Ranked: 200
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 833
TV Market: San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose (#10)

SMU:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #82 ( R2)
Research Spending: $205M
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $79.4M FB: $27.1M MBB: $8.1 Olympic: $25.5M
FB AP Times Ranked: 180
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 279
TV Market: Dallas-Fort Worth (#5)


XII Expansion Teams

Utah:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #62 (AAU & R1)
Research Spending: $625M
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $91M FB: $34M MBB: $10M Olympic: $21M
FB AP Times Ranked: 162
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 741
TV Market: Salt Lake City (#27) (NEW STATE for ACCN Rates)State Pop: 3.4M

Kansas:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #75.7 (AAU & R1)
Research Spending: $386M
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $119M FB: $21M MBB: $16M Olympic: $20M
FB AP Times Ranked: 111
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 353
TV Market: Kansas City (#34) (NEW STATE for ACCN Rates)State Pop: 2.9M

Oklahoma St:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #105 (R1)
Research Spending: $207M
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $100M FB: $29M MBB: $12M Olympic: $23M
FB AP Times Ranked: 282
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 800
TV Market: Oklahoma City (#47) (NEW STATE for ACCN Rates)State Pop: 4M

TOP G5 Programs

USF:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #79 ( R1 & AAU)
Research Spending: $405M
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $62.3M FB: $18.7M MBB: $5M Olympic: $11.3M
FB AP Times Ranked: 47
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 226
TV Market: Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota) (#12)

UConn:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #68 ( R1)
Research Spending: $207M
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $92.5M FB: $18.4M MBB: $24M Olympic: $21.9M
FB AP Times Ranked: 6
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 252
TV Market: Hartford & New Haven (#32) (NEW STATE for ACCN Rates) State Pop: 3.6M

Colorado St:
3-Way Avg. Academic Rank: #88 ( R1)
Research Spending: $207M
Financial Data: F22 Dept. Budget: $59.3M FB: $30.9M MBB: $5.2M Olympic: $10M
FB AP Times Ranked: 43
2023 DC Points (All Sports): 156
TV Market: Denver (#17) (NEW STATE for ACCN Rates) State Pop: 5.8M

(03-13-2024 07:39 AM)otown Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 07:20 PM)Bull Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 06:25 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  If the AAC loses USF to the AAC, I would strongly want Memphis to find some way to join the Mountain West (with Tulane and maybe a few other AAC members).

The AAC has lost so much (UConn, UCF, Houston, Cincinnati and, next year, SMU) At what point (and losing USF might be the breaking point — if we already aren't there) does staying in the AAC do Memphis little good? I do like the addition of Army for football, however. And if the league replaced USF with AppState ... that would be a strong switch in football. But again, and as I just posted, I doubt App would be interested.

Seems complicated to me...

On the one hand, you are right that the AAC is essentially having its guts ripped out over time... Thats what happens when you are the 'top' G5... The P5 keep picking up the programs.

On the other hand, everyone derided the AAC when it was formed. Called it a 'dumpster fire' all over these boards. Look how amazing the AAC performed over a decade. Great record versus P5, great access bowl record, and great TV dollars well above anyone else in the G5.

Could that magic happen again if the AAC gets a bit reconstituted? I think so... The AAC has (at least) 3 clear advantages. 1. Playing east, where the people are... I wouldn't want long travel westward to play late night games in smaller front range towns. 2. It's a big city, market oriented conference. Again, play where the people are and easier travel. 3. Those TV dollars... even if renegotiated, likely to stay tops in the G5.

Bottom line, for me, I wouldn't pull the trigger and run west without trying out the reincarnation of the AAC for awhile.

In the scenario USF is gone......... who is left? ECU, Navy, Tulane, Tulsa, Temple, and Memphis along with the CUSA teams?

This isn't the AAC from 10 years ago. The teams back then has pedigree and name recognition with fan bases. I will go out on a limb and say Memphis and Tulane beg the MWC to take them.

At this point it is the CUSA and I doubt SBC teams jump.

Liberty might jump if that happened because ECU, Navy, and Charlotte would be local rivals. And their athletic budget is more in line with AAC teams.

(03-14-2024 11:32 AM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(03-13-2024 09:22 AM)mturn017 Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 07:17 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-12-2024 03:42 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  It’s starting to look like Clemson may join Florida St in the ACCape.

Let’s say for the moment that those are the only two that move (my Big 10 worst case scenario). This puts the ACC at 15+ND with one more pro rata add.

USF is the odds on favorite for that spot, which brings me to my question: who would the AAC backfill with if they only lose USF?

Is it FIU by default just to keep the FL quota filled?

Is the SBC off limits?

Do they make another run at AFA?

I think if the ACC only loses Clemson and FSU, they either add from the Big 12 or stand pat and try again on the Big 12 in 2031. If they still strike out in 2031 then...maybe? But probably not.

Here's my reasoning: the ACC was extremely reluctant to add anybody they considered lesser (basically everyone outside of the P2 and the Pac), and they were even reluctant to add Pac schools due to travel considerations. If we look at reasonable non-Big 12 schools for the ACC, I come up with 3:

USF
Memphis
UConn

Memphis we can cross off b/c of their Academics. UConn we can cross off b/c they're great where the ACC is already great and bring nothing in the area the ACC really needs help, football. I cross off USF b/c they're a project and bring nothing to either football or basketball, in fact they're a significant negative in both of those, and they're not needed for ACCN purposes b/c in this scenario Miami is still in the fold.

I'd add Tulane to that list probably and the ACC might bend for Memphis, they did for Louisville. Is Memphis academics that much worse? IDK.

But.....

A lot depends if the ACC and Stanford/Cal are committed or if it's a temporary marriage of convenience. Obviously if the CA get a nod from the BIG10 they'll go but it seems they probably won't move for anything less. So that would open up the West Coast and MWC schools along with OSU/WSU.

I do think USF is the obvious replacement for FSU so going back to the original question...I think the AAC takes their time as they have in the past. Their options are dwindling. ODU wouldn't be interested in going alone and I doubt even with MU, App & JMU. I think the SBE schools would be open to a merge and split with the AAC if they ended up losing USF, Tulane and Memphis. Don't know how the western teams would feel about that or what would happen to the academies & WSU.

Is this all you guys ever think about? This kind of talk is what destabilized C-USA, and led to it being torn apart.

Under Aresco, ODU wasn't going to get a second look. Maybe the new commissioner will, but the Texas programs still have fresh memories of ODU divisive actions and commentary. No way the Texas programs would support an ODU invitation. I doubt any program in the Sun Belt would get consideration. Under our current configurations, the AAC and Belt are too different in membership, goals, and philosophy, to be interchangeable.

As for the topic. The AAC doesn't need to add anyone. 13 would be fine. But, when SMU bought their way into the AAC, just to escape conferencing with North Texas, the AAC actually landed Army, which at this moment is a better and more valuable brand than SMU. Of course, everyone outside of the AAC board thought Army stay independent.

The realignment pickings are slim for conferences outside of the P2, which in my opinion is a good thing. The AAC has the membership, markets, media deal, and revenue, to grow into something special again. we just need time and stability. NIL and the Portal is expediting the growth of the AAC. As the AAC enjoys increasing success on the field and courts, these discussions about the need for future additions will fade.

It's probably more you obsessed with ODU than Aresco or anyone else. That type of talk wasn't the cause, it was a symptom. But if you want to keep backfilling from CUSA have at it. Liberty spends better than most in your conference if you can get the presidents on board. If the ACC does get gutted then the AAC probably will as well, possibly including the academies as they're the biggest media draw there.