OSU and WSU improved their CFP take well above G5 per Ross Dellenger for the period of 2026-2028.

Speculation. This suggests to me these two schools plan to remain independent past the 2024, 2025 MWC scheduling agreement.

Assumption: the agreement is for the two schools only, and is not extended to any additions to the Pac-12.

Note, after 2028 season there is the "look-in" Yormark had the CFP include.

They'll rebuild the Pac-12. But they clearly are looking to make a conference that is like minded and covers at least a state in the market.

Yeah, that's certainly an incentive to remain Independent/WCC for as long as they can keep the $3.6M up.

Good for them! I root for these two to come out on the best side of all of this!!

WTH.

Bill Hancock should be tarred and feathered for allowing this.

WOSU are waiting for the ACC situation to sort out before making any big moves. If the ACC loses 2 or more members, WOSU have to be on the ACC short list since the ACC has already established a western pod with Cal and Stanford, and WOSU were existing P5 schools.

Yeah, the details need to be clarified.

1) It could mean that only Wash St and Ore St get $3.6M each regardless of what conference they become a member of.

2) Or it could mean members of the PAC conference get a total of $7.2M and it's up to the PAC to decide how that money gets split up if the PAC expands.

3) Or it could mean that if the PAC expands, every new member gets $3.6M. I highly doubt this last option is true.

Let's see if the math adds up

SEC 29.0%
Big Ten 29.0%
ACC 17.1%
Big 12 - 14.7%
G5 - 8.7%
ND - 1.0%
PAC - 0.55%
UConn - 0.03%

Total - 100.08%

Close enough I guess.

(03-20-2024 07:11 AM)goofus Wrote:  Yeah, the details need to be clarified.

1) It could mean that only Wash St and Ore St get $3.6M each regardless of what conference they become a member of.

2) Or it could mean members of the PAC conference get a total of $7.2M and it's up to the PAC to decide how that money gets split up if the PAC expands.

3) Or it could mean that if the PAC expands, every new member gets $3.6M. I highly doubt this last option is true.

My guess is 4) $3.6M at least until 2028… so long as they are still independents. After then the look-in will reevaluate their worth (likely knocking them down to G5 or even UConn level).

There is also a look-in before 2028 if there is “material realignment”. If the Pac-12 reforms or the ACC implodes and WSU/OSU get absorbed into the XII/ACC, the payments to those conferences will be re-evaluated.

There may be something where parties unaffected by pre-2028 “material realignment” (ie. OSU and/or WSU remain independent through an ACC implosion), they will keep their original percentage.

(03-20-2024 12:06 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(03-20-2024 07:11 AM)goofus Wrote:  Yeah, the details need to be clarified.

1) It could mean that only Wash St and Ore St get $3.6M each regardless of what conference they become a member of.

2) Or it could mean members of the PAC conference get a total of $7.2M and it's up to the PAC to decide how that money gets split up if the PAC expands.

3) Or it could mean that if the PAC expands, every new member gets $3.6M. I highly doubt this last option is true.

My guess is 4) $3.6M at least until 2028… so long as they are still independents. After then the look-in will reevaluate their worth (likely knocking them down to G5 or even UConn level).

There is also a look-in before 2028 if there is “material realignment”. If the Pac-12 reforms or the ACC implodes and WSU/OSU get absorbed into the XII/ACC, the payments to those conferences will be re-evaluated.

There may be something where parties unaffected by pre-2028 “material realignment” (ie. OSU and/or WSU remain independent through an ACC implosion), they will keep their original percentage.

I think it's more political payback. The Pac-12 acquiesced, allowing the CFP format for 2024 and 2025 to move to a 5-7 model. Very likely the P4 conferences came to an understanding that in exchange for the Pac-12 vote (current CFP format change required unanimity) that they would take care of OSU and WSU in the next CFP deal. This is probably why it was hammered out so quickly, and only after the format for everyone else was agreed to. Four days turnaround from negotiating to signed deal strongly suggests this was agreed in advance and just needed review and signatures, maybe the exact amount spelled out. Politics, for Americans who have not seen it function for close to a generation now, is about horse trading.

Yes, it almost certainly applies only if they remain independent. The big impact is on the MWC which has to proceed into its next media rights deal negotiating with the assumption that OSU and WSU are not likely to be members, so they will need an expansion clause, similar to what the Big 12 had, but on a smaller/lower scale, to position themselves to add one or both schools. As the CFP deal appears to be for OSU and WSU only, rather than any expanded Pac-12, it doesn't give the Pac-12 leverage. On the contrary, it encourages OSU and WSU to remain independents with associate membership in the WCC through 2028-29, which would pretty much exhaust any reserves left from the Pac-12 assets, including remaining NCAA basketball credits.

Anyway, I think it was a logical trade by OSU and WSU with the P4 to be taken care of in the immediate out years. If the deal expires after 2028 football season, then they may have to make a conference move within a couple years to survive.