Quote:The Yemen-based Houthi rebels have extended an olive branch to China and Russia as the organization continues targeting freighters and other cargo ships traveling through the Red Sea. The rebels have attacked numerous vessels with ties to Israel, the United States, and other nations.

However, the group has come to an agreement with China and Russia, assuring both governments that their vessels can travel safely through the region. The development came to light after covert talks between Houthi representatives and diplomats from China and Russia that took place in Oman.

The Yemen-based Houthis have told China and Russia their ships can sail through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden without being attacked, according to several people with knowledge of the militant group’s discussions.

China and Russia reached an understanding following talks between their diplomats in Oman and Mohammed Abdel Salam, one of the Houthis’ top political figures, said the people, who asked not to be named discussing private matters.

In exchange, the two countries may provide political support to the Houthis in bodies such as the United Nations Security Council, according to the people. It’s not entirely clear how that support would be manifested, but it could include blocking more resolutions against the group.

The Houthis might be banking on the possibility that China and Russia could work to prevent future United Nations resolutions against the group.

Since the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden serve as critical arteries through which global commerce takes place, this pact might reshape the strategic landscape in the region. Over recent months, the Houthis attacked vessels making their way through the waters. Through missile and drone attacks, they have made it more perilous for certain ships to travel through the region. The rebels have gone so far as to commandeer vessels and even sunk its first ship in the conflict earlier in March. The rebels have also clashed with U.S. forces on several occasions.

The Houthis' current offensives began after the war in Gaza started on October 7. The rebels indicated that their attacks were aimed at pressuring Israel and its allies to halt its offensive against Hamas. Their actions reflect the complex dynamics of Yemen’s civil war, the influence of Iran, and the overall struggle for dominance in various areas of the Middle East.

The Houthis came to prominence on the international stage during the Yemeni civil war. The group, backed by Iran, has seized control of significant areas of the country and has been embroiled in a bloody war with a coalition led by Saudi Arabia, which backs the nation’s current government that the Houthis seek to overthrow.

This agreement could reshape the geopolitical situation in the Red Sea, helping Russia and China establish a greater presence. If the Houthis continue their attacks against ships aligned with the United States, Israel, and others while allowing free passage to Moscow and Beijing, it could put the latter two in an advantageous position.

It is unclear exactly how this agreement will affect trade through the Red Sea. However, it seems clear that the Houthis won’t be abandoning its attacks anytime soon.

Quote:Despite an agreement with China to give safe passage to all Chinese shipping in the Red Sea, the Houthis struck a Chinese ship with a ballistic missile on Saturday.

From 2:50 to 4:30 a.m. (Sanaa time) March 23, the Iranian-backed Houthis launched four anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) into the Red Sea in the vicinity of M/V Huang Pu, a Panamanian-flagged, Chinese-owned, Chinese-operated oil tanker.

At 4:25 p.m. (Sanaa time), a fifth ballistic missile was detected as fired toward M/V Huang Pu. The ship issued a distress call but did not request assistance. M/V Huang Pu suffered minimal damage, and a fire on board was extinguished within 30 minutes. No casualties were reported, and the vessel resumed its course. The Houthis attacked the M/V Huang despite previously stating they would not attack Chinese vessels.

Earlier today, my colleague Jeff Charles posted on an agreement inked days ago between the Houthis and the partnership of Russia and China to guarantee the safe passage of Russian and Chinese ships through the Red Sea.

So what happened?

The underlying problem is that the Houthis lack the intelligence to identify which ships are which. In the case of the M/V Huang Pu, it was British-owned until September 2023.

Until late September 2023, the ship was registered with UK-based Union Maritime under the name of Anavatos II. As TradeWinds reported at the time, it was sold to undisclosed owners.

According to shipping data banks, the ship emerged in January as Taurus II under management of Hong Kong-based Ambra Ltd.

It is only since February that the ship is trading under its current name of Huang Pu under the management of another Hong Kong-based entity called Hera Gam Ltd.

Without access to accurate ship registration data, the Houthis can't keep their end of the bargain. As an aside, their agreement with the Russians is virtually nonsense. The Russian fleet is mostly under sanctions. Most Russian oil products are transferred to Greek-owned ships, which the Houthis consider fair game.

In addition to the information problem, the Houthis have a target acquisition problem. They rely heavily on AIS data, which can be edited by the ship or just turned off. The presence of US and allied warships makes it difficult for the Houthis to use surveillance drones. When ships enter the Gulf of Aden, they are shadowed by Iranian spy ships like the Behshad. These provide the Houthis with targeting information.

This incident reveals that the agreement between the Houthis, Chinese, and Russians is more of a public relations exercise than anything likely to affect Houthi attacks in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden.