(03-27-2024 10:06 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-27-2024 09:17 AM)jhjhanaway Wrote:  It's funny reading the comments in this. It always feels like those that don't care for baseball, often plan for it's funeral. Baseball fills a major gap in sports. It's every day, during the summer. I am a passionate baseball fan that acknowledges that baseball is geared to casual fans. It's a great excuse to go hang with friends and have a drink and enjoy a game, any day of the week. To say no one is watching isn't true either. Forbes has an article saying there was a 7% increase in RSN viewing last year. Baseball isn't going anywhere.

MLB Regional Sports Networks See 7% Gain For 2023 Season https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/...b1fa8a9a8a

Yes, I have been reading about the demise of MLB - which I don't watch on TV btw until the playoffs, sometimes not until the WS, and have no chance to see in person - for over 30 years. It's always the same litany - baseball is an old fogie sport, too slow, doesn't appeal to today's youth, be that the youth of the 80s, 90s, 00s, 10s, and now 20s.

And yet here we are in 2024, and MLB has overall revenue of about $11b, a billion more than the always-trendy NBA (which I personally like and follow more than MLB, btw). But MLB is the second-highest revenue league in the world, behind only the NFL.

So, somebody likes baseball, LOL.

I’m with you, but I think the concerns are legit right now. Fewer and fewer kids are participating and watching baseball;
instead they are playing soccer, basketball and LAX.

Outside the major franchise attending MLB games is more an attraction than a passion. I echo what others have said that there Will be contraction of teams in the future to the markets that matter- NY, Boston, Chicago, LA, Philly, etc.

(03-26-2024 10:43 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 07:37 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 05:19 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  I can't imagine what MLB will look like in 20 years. Maybe back down to 16 teams hopefully.

Good luck with that. Major pro leagues don’t contract. Who was the last? Cleveland Barons, maybe?

Why would MLB still be a viable entity in 20 years? What would even lead to that assumption? Less people playing, less people watching, younger generation lacks interest, etc.

Ice cold take, as usual.

(03-27-2024 02:05 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(03-27-2024 10:06 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-27-2024 09:17 AM)jhjhanaway Wrote:  It's funny reading the comments in this. It always feels like those that don't care for baseball, often plan for it's funeral. Baseball fills a major gap in sports. It's every day, during the summer. I am a passionate baseball fan that acknowledges that baseball is geared to casual fans. It's a great excuse to go hang with friends and have a drink and enjoy a game, any day of the week. To say no one is watching isn't true either. Forbes has an article saying there was a 7% increase in RSN viewing last year. Baseball isn't going anywhere.

MLB Regional Sports Networks See 7% Gain For 2023 Season https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/...b1fa8a9a8a

Yes, I have been reading about the demise of MLB - which I don't watch on TV btw until the playoffs, sometimes not until the WS, and have no chance to see in person - for over 30 years. It's always the same litany - baseball is an old fogie sport, too slow, doesn't appeal to today's youth, be that the youth of the 80s, 90s, 00s, 10s, and now 20s.

And yet here we are in 2024, and MLB has overall revenue of about $11b, a billion more than the always-trendy NBA (which I personally like and follow more than MLB, btw). But MLB is the second-highest revenue league in the world, behind only the NFL.

So, somebody likes baseball, LOL.

I’m with you, but I think the concerns are legit right now. Fewer and fewer kids are participating and watching baseball;
instead they are playing soccer, basketball and LAX.

Outside the major franchise attending MLB games is more an attraction than a passion. I echo what others have said that there Will be contraction of teams in the future to the markets that matter- NY, Boston, Chicago, LA, Philly, etc.

But they set a record with revenue last year and has been consistently getting better. So I don't understand this take. There are still plenty of kids playing, also foreign players that continue to make it to the bigs. Even if I agree that fewer kids playing, I think we are still very far out from that being a real problem for the MLB.

It's a multi-billion dollar company and I don't really see what the incentive would be to shrink the league. Sure we could get there but I think a lot of assumptions are made and it is grossly underestimated how soon in which baseball is in danger.

I can only speak for my team, but the front office just doesn't care if the Royals win or not. It's easy to look at attendance and say KC doesn't care for baseball. When in reality the team is never competitive. But when the team was good, games were packed every night. The problem with attendance is an ownership problem and not a fan problem. As evidenced by TV viewership and revenue growth.

(03-27-2024 10:06 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-27-2024 09:17 AM)jhjhanaway Wrote:  It's funny reading the comments in this. It always feels like those that don't care for baseball, often plan for it's funeral. Baseball fills a major gap in sports. It's every day, during the summer. I am a passionate baseball fan that acknowledges that baseball is geared to casual fans. It's a great excuse to go hang with friends and have a drink and enjoy a game, any day of the week. To say no one is watching isn't true either. Forbes has an article saying there was a 7% increase in RSN viewing last year. Baseball isn't going anywhere.

MLB Regional Sports Networks See 7% Gain For 2023 Season https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/...b1fa8a9a8a

Yes, I have been reading about the demise of MLB - which I don't watch on TV btw until the playoffs, sometimes not until the WS, and have no chance to see in person - for over 30 years. It's always the same litany - baseball is an old fogie sport, too slow, doesn't appeal to today's youth, be that the youth of the 80s, 90s, 00s, 10s, and now 20s.

And yet here we are in 2024, and MLB has overall revenue of about $11b, a billion more than the always-trendy NBA (which I personally like and follow more than MLB, btw). But MLB is the second-highest revenue league in the world, behind only the NFL.

So, somebody likes baseball, LOL.

The mutual part between MLB and ESPN is likely be over how best to monetize those MLB games. And a smallish package on ESPN for a flat amount may not be the way to go for either of them. Baseball isn't dead, but it is niche to the Fantasy League guys who want access to as many games as they can get. A seasonal package or package for Leagues or divisions may be the way to go. So I can see mutuality in figuring out best how to monetize those games.

As to the SEC and ESPN. It's clear that FOX and ESPN are interested in the CFP and see a lot of upside potential. It's also clear that in a downturn in the economy you want only those events with guaranteed sellouts and a lot of passion to air. IOW Big 10 and SEC games.

If ESPN were to cut the ACC loose, I think they will have wanted to line up and facilitate a move of the brands they want to keep into the SEC prior to cutting loose. I can see them efficiently placing their top 3 brands into the SEC (Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina). The question is then who is #4? Duke would be their next strongest brand, just not in football and in the Big 12 it would be Kansas, just not in football. It will be interesting to see what they do.

If Notre Dame wants to keep independence and Cal, Stanford and S.M.U. fill in for the departed at the current share level I can see ESPN riding that contract out. It gives them West Coast product for late night, it gives them at least 2 Notre Dame games, and should they add an Oregon State or Utah, and UConn it gives them pretty solid hoops and good T2 material for football.

Perhaps what ESPN would relinquish is their share of the Big 12 and that may be an impetus for the SEC's 20th addition to be Kansas. We'll see.

But, I could see FOX and the Big 10 going for FOX ownership of the Big 12. That means USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington can play the 4 corners schools, and that through Baylor, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech and Central Florida the Big 10 can schedule in Texas and Florida without having to ditch standards to do it.

Interestingly, I can't help but wonder if the goal of the Big 12 is to come in a pick off enough ACC teams after the B1G/SEC to cement themselves as the only M1 with strong basketball to hopefully create a bidding war between ESPN and FOX? At the same time, ESPN does currently have "control" of the ACC in a sense and could just as easily get them to attempt to pick off some Big 12 teams. The 4 corner schools could also be a match of sorts for Stanford & Cal or add a Kansas (with a belief that a FSU/Clemson victory of sorts weakens the GOR and they are not receiving an invite from the P2) and UConn and you have another strong competing basketball product.

Also, might it be better to experiment with a 24 team conference @ the "M" level first? Trying to get a majority of the schools herded in the same direction is easier on paper than in real life. Laying odds the larger the group, the more cracks that are going to become public.

Anytime I had to watch their broadcasts I was bored to tears.

(03-27-2024 02:05 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(03-27-2024 10:06 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-27-2024 09:17 AM)jhjhanaway Wrote:  It's funny reading the comments in this. It always feels like those that don't care for baseball, often plan for it's funeral. Baseball fills a major gap in sports. It's every day, during the summer. I am a passionate baseball fan that acknowledges that baseball is geared to casual fans. It's a great excuse to go hang with friends and have a drink and enjoy a game, any day of the week. To say no one is watching isn't true either. Forbes has an article saying there was a 7% increase in RSN viewing last year. Baseball isn't going anywhere.

MLB Regional Sports Networks See 7% Gain For 2023 Season https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/...b1fa8a9a8a

Yes, I have been reading about the demise of MLB - which I don't watch on TV btw until the playoffs, sometimes not until the WS, and have no chance to see in person - for over 30 years. It's always the same litany - baseball is an old fogie sport, too slow, doesn't appeal to today's youth, be that the youth of the 80s, 90s, 00s, 10s, and now 20s.

And yet here we are in 2024, and MLB has overall revenue of about $11b, a billion more than the always-trendy NBA (which I personally like and follow more than MLB, btw). But MLB is the second-highest revenue league in the world, behind only the NFL.

So, somebody likes baseball, LOL.

I’m with you, but I think the concerns are legit right now. Fewer and fewer kids are participating and watching baseball;
instead they are playing soccer, basketball and LAX.

Outside the major franchise attending MLB games is more an attraction than a passion. I echo what others have said that there Will be contraction of teams in the future to the markets that matter- NY, Boston, Chicago, LA, Philly, etc.

i agree with this take... it will still be popular, but not as powerful as it was back in the 90s/2000s when it was the #1 sport. people don't spend big $$ on their #3/4 sports fandom. which seems like baseball is now #3 behind football and basketball. People will still go to games, but as a young co worker said while at our team outing (a baseball game), "its boring, but will go to a game is if its cheap and i can drink beers"

As young dad, who has coached youth baseball/softball/basketball/lacrosse, youth baseball is basically babysitting. 50% stop playing once they go to middle school and pick up football, soccer, basketball, hockey, wrestling lacrosse. its weird when i grew up it was baseball as the spring sport, now its lacrosse amongst my kids. maybe ESPN is onto something........

(03-27-2024 02:05 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(03-27-2024 10:06 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(03-27-2024 09:17 AM)jhjhanaway Wrote:  It's funny reading the comments in this. It always feels like those that don't care for baseball, often plan for it's funeral. Baseball fills a major gap in sports. It's every day, during the summer. I am a passionate baseball fan that acknowledges that baseball is geared to casual fans. It's a great excuse to go hang with friends and have a drink and enjoy a game, any day of the week. To say no one is watching isn't true either. Forbes has an article saying there was a 7% increase in RSN viewing last year. Baseball isn't going anywhere.

MLB Regional Sports Networks See 7% Gain For 2023 Season https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/...b1fa8a9a8a

Yes, I have been reading about the demise of MLB - which I don't watch on TV btw until the playoffs, sometimes not until the WS, and have no chance to see in person - for over 30 years. It's always the same litany - baseball is an old fogie sport, too slow, doesn't appeal to today's youth, be that the youth of the 80s, 90s, 00s, 10s, and now 20s.

And yet here we are in 2024, and MLB has overall revenue of about $11b, a billion more than the always-trendy NBA (which I personally like and follow more than MLB, btw). But MLB is the second-highest revenue league in the world, behind only the NFL.

So, somebody likes baseball, LOL.

I’m with you, but I think the concerns are legit right now. Fewer and fewer kids are participating and watching baseball;
instead they are playing soccer, basketball and LAX.

Outside the major franchise attending MLB games is more an attraction than a passion. I echo what others have said that there Will be contraction of teams in the future to the markets that matter- NY, Boston, Chicago, LA, Philly, etc.

About the "major franchises", I don't follow baseball that close, but IIRC they are not nearly as socialistic as the NFL, right? There are massive differences in player payroll between teams like the Yankees and the small-market teams, I think. There is a "luxury tax" that tries to equalize things a bit, but still, overall, there are those huge disparities. There are some teams that just can't afford to sign contracts like the Shohei Ohtani deal with the mega-rich Dodgers.

That IMO keeps the major franchises on top so much and hurts fan interest in smaller markets that can't compete for top players. If MLB became more socialistic I think that would unleash even more fan interest league-wide.

Just MO.

ESPN isn't looking at getting out of baseball. It wants to opt out of the deal so it can go after the local rights too. They can pay a lower price for all of it if they opt out now and bundle it together while also putting pressure on MLB that they could just walk away.

All of the Diamond Sports contracts that haven't been voided are up after this season and that is a lot of inventory ESPN could put on various platforms. They just want it cheap.

(03-27-2024 09:17 AM)jhjhanaway Wrote:  It's funny reading the comments in this. It always feels like those that don't care for baseball, often plan for it's funeral. Baseball fills a major gap in sports. It's every day, during the summer. I am a passionate baseball fan that acknowledges that baseball is geared to casual fans. It's a great excuse to go hang with friends and have a drink and enjoy a game, any day of the week. To say no one is watching isn't true either. Forbes has an article saying there was a 7% increase in RSN viewing last year. Baseball isn't going anywhere.

MLB Regional Sports Networks See 7% Gain For 2023 Season https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/...b1fa8a9a8a

Yes - a lot of people aren’t looking deep enough at the numbers.

MLB is going through essentially the reverse of the audience trend of college football. That is, college football is going from a regional fan base sport to a national fan base sport. In contrast, MLB is going from a national fan base sport to a regional fan base sport. The RSN ratings show that MLB interest is still very high or increasing on a *local* basis. People are still watching *their* home team (whoever that might be) at a high level. We’re just not seeing people watch baseball *other* than their own home team games as much. Part of it is simply volume - just keeping up with your own home team is 6 games a week for 6 months. I know that just keeping up with the White Sox and Cubs in my home market means that I’m already watching more baseball than 99% of the country even if I don’t watch a single national ESPN game.

College football is going through the reverse where a lot of people are watching games that *don’t* involve their favorite team. The NFL is an even bigger example of that viewing structure.

In any event, also remember that in-person attendance is getting underrated in MLB value by a lot of fans, too (whereas it’s an overrated factor when analyzing college football). 81 games over the course of 6 months plus another 15-plus games in a month in either Florida or Arizona for spring training means that there is way more in-person revenue generated in baseball. It also allows a lot more ancillary revenue if the stadium is in the right location because the volume of games can support a lot of year-round businesses outside of the ballpark that generally can’t be done as well with other sports. Wrigleyville is the original version of this, but a lot of other teams are controlling a lot more of the businesses immediately surrounding their ballparks. MLB team ownership has the best real estate development ability out of any of the major team sports.

So, the contraction suggestions are wacky. As quo pointed out, MLB teams generate a massive amount of revenue and have high valuations because of the overall picture. If anything, a lot of teams have understated revenue because their owners typically place their ballpark-adjacent properties into a business entity that’s separate from the team itself. (Tom Ricketts that owns the Cubs, for instance, has a whole slew of Wrigleyville businesses such as rooftops, restaurants and a hotel that wouldn’t exist without the Cubs, but are separate from the Cubs franchise itself. So, it superficially looks like that the Cubs are a break even or even money losing franchise, but they’re excluding all of the wildly profitable real estate businesses with common ownership that surround Wrigley Field.)

(03-27-2024 10:10 PM)woollymammoth41 Wrote:  ... i agree with this take... it will still be popular, but not as powerful as it was back in the 90s/2000s when it was the #1 sport. ...

In Football Retains Dominant Position as Favorite U.S. Sport, Gallup, February 2024, it notes:

Quote: Baseball and basketball essentially tie for second at 10% and 9%, respectively. Football has been the top sport in Gallup polling since 1972, when it eclipsed baseball.

The highest percentage with baseball as their favorite sport in the ten years +/- 2000 was 21%, August 8, 1994 poll, all other polls in that period were between 16% and 10%. The highest percentage with basketball in that 20 year period was 17%, April 18, 1997, with the rest of the polls between 16% and 9%, while football in that period ranged from 28% to 43%.

Quote: people don't spend big $$ on their #3/4 sports fandom. which seems like baseball is now #3 behind football and basketball. People will still go to games, but as a young co worker said while at our team outing (a baseball game), "its boring, but will go to a game is if its cheap and i can drink beers"

Kind of tied with basketball, but strongest in the 65+ demo at 16%, 9%/8% in the two 30-64 demos and 5% in the 18-29 demo ... behind basketball and soccer in the 18-29 demo and tied with ice hockey.

So over the longer term, baseball will be sliding in the "favorite sport" measure unless there is a very strong tendency for people to shift toward baseball as they age.

In the 18-29 demo, football is 28% and "other sports" is 26%, with football, baseball, basketball, soccer and ice hockey listed, so part of what is happening is fragmentation of the market ...

... and that fragmentation points toward why ESPN may be more interested in the content that the RSN's used to license versus the national MLB type shows.

Of course, one part of why baseball is not likely to "collapse" is immigration into the country from countries where Baseball is the #1 or #2 sport

Football is #1 yes, probably even most baseball fans will rank football #1! But it’s a short season. What’s on when football isn’t going. MLB isn’t competing against the NFL, NHL, or NBA for the bulk for it’s season so it stays relevant.

I think there is a tendency to shift to baseball as you age. I’m already seeing it. I love being outside sweating all day & coming in in the evening & turning on a baseball game. I like being able to listen to games at work. As posters above have said, I like it over other ‘summer’ sports on b/c there’s a local team to back.

Everyone around the office excited for opening day. Most people here identify w/ the Tigers. It doesn’t mean people are die-hards but baseball is part of the culture. Fans are usually casual in every sport, even football. Honestly there’s times I’d put the Tigers as the top pro team here in Michigan based on overall interest. (The Red Wings base is more passionate & die-hard, but it’s smaller & doesn't have those casual fans, the Lions have been bad most of the time I’ve been alive which has killed interest, & the Pistons are non-existent)

(03-28-2024 12:42 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  ... (The Red Wings base is more passionate & die-hard, but it’s smaller & doesn't have those casual fans, the Lions have been bad most of the time I’ve been alive which has killed interest, & the Pistons are non-existent) ...

The "Pistons"? I knew that there's a USL club in Detroit, but I thought it was something unimaginative like Detroit City FC. I have to admit that the Pistons is a great name for a Michigan based soccer club.

(03-26-2024 03:46 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Relevance? It called to mind that ESPN has an option on the ACC contract.

The article doesn't say anything about the ACC, but could this be a harbinger?

https://awfulannouncing.com/espn/espn-re...tract.html

The comparison of the MLB to ACC contracts is non-sensical.

Per the article, ESPN likely wants to convert their national MLB package into a higher volume of local MLB content. MLB has a lot of excess local content after the bankruptcy of RSNs. This seems like a good financial move for ESPN...they're looking to maximize profits by transitioning to where the market has created a financial opportunity.

As a national broadcast product, MLB may be overpriced. In CFB, only the SEC and B1G media packages are priced for a lot of national games.

(03-26-2024 05:23 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 05:19 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  I can't imagine what MLB will look like in 20 years. Maybe back down to 16 teams hopefully.

Get rid of the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, Cubs!

I went to the Dbax vs NYY game last week. The game was 80% NYY fans. I think you should be worried if AZ will have anything other than Spring Training in a few years.

(03-26-2024 07:37 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 05:19 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  I can't imagine what MLB will look like in 20 years. Maybe back down to 16 teams hopefully.

Good luck with that. Major pro leagues don’t contract. Who was the last? Cleveland Barons, maybe?

And how are they going to afford ever increasing contracts when there is little to no fan interest?

(03-27-2024 04:33 AM)Jackson1011 Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 10:43 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 07:37 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 05:19 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  I can't imagine what MLB will look like in 20 years. Maybe back down to 16 teams hopefully.

Good luck with that. Major pro leagues don’t contract. Who was the last? Cleveland Barons, maybe?

Why would MLB still be a viable entity in 20 years? What would even lead to that assumption? Less people playing, less people watching, younger generation lacks interest, etc.

Actually it looks like the opposite

There are more people today, that's a disengenous survey. Go out to a ball field, no one is playing baseball.

The fan base is older white men with little to no interest along younger people. How is that a positive going fwd?

(03-27-2024 09:17 AM)jhjhanaway Wrote:  It's funny reading the comments in this. It always feels like those that don't care for baseball, often plan for it's funeral. Baseball fills a major gap in sports. It's every day, during the summer. I am a passionate baseball fan that acknowledges that baseball is geared to casual fans. It's a great excuse to go hang with friends and have a drink and enjoy a game, any day of the week. To say no one is watching isn't true either. Forbes has an article saying there was a 7% increase in RSN viewing last year. Baseball isn't going anywhere.

MLB Regional Sports Networks See 7% Gain For 2023 Season https://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/...b1fa8a9a8a

It's not geared towards causal fans, it was the national pastime.

(03-27-2024 02:07 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 10:43 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 07:37 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(03-26-2024 05:19 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  I can't imagine what MLB will look like in 20 years. Maybe back down to 16 teams hopefully.

Good luck with that. Major pro leagues don’t contract. Who was the last? Cleveland Barons, maybe?

Why would MLB still be a viable entity in 20 years? What would even lead to that assumption? Less people playing, less people watching, younger generation lacks interest, etc.

Ice cold take, as usual.

Yeah, I'm the dummy. Texas, yikes.
I think you need to post more, you're only averaging 647 per month.

Before giving a take, let me ask you guys, how do you consume MLB viewing content?

Personally I watch very little national broadcast, instead easily over 90% of what I watch are my local team (SF Giants) on Comcast Sports. National basically is Playoffs, but when my team is in I still watch the local, as I do car radio or phone app (in the car or when working in the yard).

I wonder how valuable national coverage of baseball really is.