(04-03-2024 11:17 AM)Wahoowa84 Wrote: (04-02-2024 10:29 PM)random asian guy Wrote: (04-02-2024 06:47 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote: (04-02-2024 05:20 PM)Redwood86 Wrote: The desire to affiliate with perceived academic peers is a real thing. As such, Utah would much prefer to be in a stable ACC compared to the Big-12 - all other things equal. They only jumped to the Big-12 as a last resort.
But one sure way to piss off Stanford and Cal (and maybe SMU too) would be to give Utah a much better deal than they got. So, I am not sure that adding Utah now would enhance conference stability unless last summer's deals were renegotiated.
I also fail to see the need to hurry - on either side. Utah may prefer to spend 6 years in the Big-12 while the landscape evolves and clarity as to its best path develops. And the ACC has no reason to panic. . . . . yet.
I would suggest that you don't know what kind of deal you got. One of the issues that plagues society is a media element that will take a milquetoast statement and read most anything into and out of it. When someone says "30 percent" around here it's almost never 30% and in fact its a set of number that when added up and compared to something else is roughly 30% of that artificial something else. You also don't know what happens several years down the road once you have become "one of the boys". Said another way, if you produced, I suspect you will be rewarded with faster equity.
30% is only for ESPN Tier I deal. Stanford will receive a full ACCN share.
So yeah, it’s not as bad as how media portrayed.
So Stanford & Cal each surrendered an estimated $17M per year for seven years. This “lost revenue” estimate assumes that Tier 1 ESPN distribution payments will be $24M per team next year.
With the increase in CFP and ACCN distributions, plus general inflation, ACC payouts should average at least around $50M per team in fiscal year 2024-2025. So Stanford & Cal will still get around $33M from ACC distributions next year. That distribution is more than SMU and ND (who should get mid $20sM), and about $20M less than legacy ACC members. In addition, “success initiative” teams will probably earn at least $60M in ACC distributions next year.
If Stanford & Cal did make a peer/academics decision, then there was a significant price. The 4Cs will likely make $10M more next year by joining the B12, and that deficit remains for seven years (relative to the 4Cs). Plus they have a 12 year commitment via the ACC contracts…so their chances of reuniting with their Pacific Coast peers is minimal.
The new B12 TV contract pays the members an AVERAGE of 31 M over 6 years. That roughs out to be $ 25 m, 28 m, 31 M, 33 m, 35 m and 38 m. until 2031. ACC TV is already $9 to 11 M ahead due to the power of the ACC network. If Stanford and Cal are getting just 30% of regular TV and 100% of everything else their first annual payment will be docked about $16 M but they get full ACCN money so their actual total TV including ACCN will have about $12 M added back.
To match this up with the B12 that's Stanford and Cal getting a total of $19 - $20 for the TWO ACC TV bites at the Apple while the B12's Utah, Arizona, ASU, and Colorado are on tap for $25M. Basically the ACCN closes over the half the gap. It's the ACCN that the B12 can't compete against. The big advantage the B12 had over the ACC was the Sugar Bowl but now that $20 M annual edge is gone.
I think the real question regarding the B12 is ASU's ability to fit in with distinct cultural outliers, some of whom they have already been caught talking **** about. As weird as FSU in the ACC, West Virginia, Baylor, BYU, and UCF are culturally out of step with Colorado and ASU.
I've tried to come up with a fair descriptor, and keep coming back to Pot Heads and Bible Thumpers. That sounds bad. Bible Thumpers from the standpoint of missionaries peddling a bicycle up to your house and wanting to talk to you - people who perceive that have a true mission and then the more hedonistic, nihalistic Pot Head who is convinced we are alone in the universe. These kids peddling to your house did it in the rain and the snow and smiled at the front door. The other kids pass a joint and say what's the point.
I just don't how "diverse" a conference can be and have the center hold. On top of that the thugs of the Conference are gone so you could get anarchy. Maybe everyone will get along but even Jesus couldn't keep 12 members happy.
